Hello and welcome to Market Fantasy!
Today I want to talk about what we should be doing with Billy Hamilton. Yesterday, I released my 2014 OF projections and rankings. Due to the scoring system I used, Hamilton wasn’t included due to the fact that he didn’t crack the top 65 OF based on points scoring. How can it be that someone so talked about can not factor into even discussion as a fourth outfielder? What do we make of his output the last two years? After all, we’ve been burned by one dimensional speedsters like Dee Gordon before, but he has the potential to single handedly win you a category in roto or head to head categories scoring. Let’s take a look.
Hamilton caught our attention a couple years ago when he stole a total of 155 bases across two levels of the minor leagues (high A and AA). This ridiculous pace captivated fantasy owners and he was a must own in any 2013 keeper or dynasty draft. 2013 saw his promotion to AAA, and unfortunately, it didn’t go so well. Hamilton stole *only* 75 bases in 123 games. The alarming thing, however, was his .308 OBP. This represented a sharp decline from the .410 OBP he posted only a year prior. Even more worrying was his .343 SLG, a result of only 28 of his 129 hits going for extra bases. In a 13 game stint with the big club last year, he managed to steal 13 bags (a 162 SB full season pace!) and post a .368 BA and .429 OBP across 22 AB while scoring 9 runs. (With 7 hits and 2 walks, he actually scored every time he reached base). Unfortunately, this performance only served to confuse people. Was his 2012 minor league on base disaster a mere blip? Was he just taking advantage of his small big league sample size? Can he hang with the competition in the show?
The trepidation from Hamilton’s inability to get on base in 2013 is very real. What good is all time great speed if you can’t get on base to steal said bases and then go on to score runs? I’ve resigned myself to the fact that I am not going to own Hamilton this year. It’s just not going to happen, as the price is too high with him going as early as the fourth round in a lot of leagues. For full disclosure, this is my 2014 Billy Hamilton projection:
Player
|
PA
|
R
|
H
|
1B
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
KO
|
SB
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
FPTS
| ||||||||||||||||
Hamilton, Billy CIN
|
517
|
75
|
124
|
94
|
22
|
6
|
2
|
36
|
37
|
109
|
60
|
0.258
|
0.311
|
0.342
|
415.5
| ||||||||||||||||
The above line presents a lot of problems. Hamilton is going to be elite in SB, there’s no question, but 60 SB doesn’t do it for me alone. 75 runs is nice, but certainly not elite. The big pitfalls are the power categories. 2 HR? 36 RBI? A .656 OPS? No. Just…. no. In points leagues, there’s not even a second thought. He won’t score enough points to justify his draft slot. Nowhere near close to it. Roto and categories leagues are a little different. In an AVG league, I can see it as he really only kills you in two of the five categories (but make no mistake, in an era of ever more suppressed power, he does kill you there). In an OPS league, there’s just no way. He’s KILLING you in three of the five categories. You have a lot of power to make up for when it is becoming harder to find.
I liken this to a pitcher like Lance Lynn or Edwin Jackson (or pre-renaissance Scott Kazmir, or remember Jonathon Sanchez?). The strikeouts those pitchers provide are nice, but the ugly ERA and WHIP and about 10 wins they provide just aren’t worth it. For speed, I’m going to look to lock up an elite player like an Ellsbury or Segura and then fill in with Jonathan Villar or Jose Altuve (throw in George Springer and the Astros have a lot of speed potential this year) types. You’ll get your speed that way, but you’ll have a decent OPS and even likely double digit homers.
I’d love to hear your thoughts! How are you approaching speed this year? What do you make of Hamilton?
Thanks for reading!
