Hello and welcome to Market Fantasy. This is a fantasy
sports blog with a twist, a combination of stock market principles and fantasy
sports - Wall Street meets Clark and Addison - written by someone who only
wishes he could make it in either place. I came up with the idea for this blog
a few years ago, sitting in a graduate finance class. I’m not saying I wasn’t
paying attention, but let’s just say my mind might have wandered a little bit. I’m
sure the lecture was riveting. Anyway, I got to thinking about a fantasy
baseball story I had read earlier in the day, and something in the story stuck
with me – something about return on your investment for a certain player. As
someone halfway to an MBA with a finance concentration - clearly an expert - that
stuck in my head.
I read a lot of fantasy sports blogs. I also read a lot
about investments and economics, and I’m always struck by how similar the
language used in the two is. Fantasy writers are always talking about return on
investment, profit, boom and bust cycles, bubbles and value. A player is either
overpriced compared to the market, or a great value. With such similar
language, I wanted to see how similar the two disciplines are. Can you make a
market of fantasy players? Is it possible to price a player using CAPM? Does
Andrew McCutchen have a beta?
This blog is an experiment. I have no idea how it will turn
out, but I will attempt to make a market of fantasy players that functions like
the stock market we’re all used to. I know this is not a unique idea. There are a few sites out there right now
which purport to be stock markets of athletes. I don’t believe these are true
markets though. A player is listed initially, and throughout the year, they
accumulate value based on their on field performance. A single is worth a
dollar, a save worth three. If this sounds familiar, it’s because it is. This
is also known as normal fantasy sports masquerading as a stock market game.
This will be different, and I will probably change a few
things as I go throughout the season. What I am attempting to do is show that
fantasy sports CAN function like the actual stock market. To do this, the first
thing I need is an index. What better way to start than by emulating the Dow
Jones Industrial Index. The Dow is one of the most widely watched indices out
there today. It consists of 30 companies designed to give an overall picture of
the health of the overall stock market. To do this, I have picked 30 baseball
players to make up the market. They represent the best at each position. The
valuation I am using is based on WAR (wins over replacement). I am assuming a
standard twelve team league, so the replacement level would be the thirteenth ranked
catcher, 1B, 2B, SS, and 3B. I play in leagues with three and four outfielders, for this I'll use four OF, making the 49th the replacement . I am assuming
two relief pitchers making the 25th ranked the replacement and seven starting pitchers making the 85th ranked the replacement. Since most leagues also have a utility spot, I factored in for that as well. Lastly, the values are not meant to be auction values, they are what I came up with for this experiment.
So, I realize this is midseason, but it took me a while to get everything to where I liked so I could publish. The first post will contain the FOW (Fantasy DOW) based on preseason projections. The second post will be the FOW if we were to start from today. I will use the preseason projections as the basis of all following posts, but thought it was interesting to look at how the market would've changed (hello Chris Davis!). Thanks so
much for reading. Without further adieu, I give you the preseason FOW!
|
Player
|
Position
|
Value
|
|
Santana, Carlos CLE
|
C
|
$ 20.98
|
|
Posey, Buster SF
|
C
|
$ 20.44
|
|
Pujols, Albert LAA
|
1B
|
$ 21.69
|
|
Votto, Joey CIN
|
1B
|
$ 19.13
|
|
Fielder, Prince DET
|
1B
|
$ 17.61
|
|
Cano, Robinson NYY
|
2B
|
$ 26.31
|
|
Pedroia, Dustin BOS
|
2B
|
$ 23.73
|
|
Kinsler, Ian TEX
|
2B
|
$ 23.58
|
|
Tulowitzki, Troy COL
|
SS
|
$ 26.71
|
|
Reyes, Jose TOR
|
SS
|
$ 19.13
|
|
Castro, Starlin CHC
|
SS
|
$ 16.10
|
|
Cabrera, Miguel DET
|
3B
|
$ 36.76
|
|
Longoria, Evan TB
|
3B
|
$ 20.07
|
|
Wright, David NYM
|
3B
|
$ 17.79
|
|
Braun, Ryan MIL
|
OF
|
$ 35.22
|
|
Trout, Mike LAA
|
OF
|
$ 29.80
|
|
Kemp, Matt LAD
|
OF
|
$ 29.70
|
|
Stanton, Giancarlo MIA
|
OF
|
$ 27.64
|
|
Hamilton, Josh LAA
|
OF
|
$ 26.70
|
|
McCutchen, Andrew PIT
|
OF
|
$ 23.16
|
|
Bautista, Jose TOR
|
OF
|
$ 23.60
|
|
Kershaw, Clayton LAD
|
SP
|
$ 44.75
|
|
Verlander, Justin DET
|
SP
|
$ 39.79
|
|
Strasburg, Stephen WAS
|
SP
|
$ 39.49
|
|
Price, David TB
|
SP
|
$ 37.36
|
|
Sabathia, CC NYY
|
SP
|
$ 36.85
|
|
Hamels, Cole PHI
|
SP
|
$ 34.73
|
|
Kimbrel, Craig ATL
|
RP
|
$ 39.79
|
|
Papelbon, Jonathan PHI
|
RP
|
$ 30.07
|
|
Rodney, Fernando TB
|
RP
|
$ 25.41
|
|
FOW Index Price
|
$ 836.68
|
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