Hello and Welcome to Market Fantasy!
Floor drafting:
I love standard deviation and the principals of six sigma when looking at a player’s scoring. One of the most helpful things these two things can do for us is to show us a players’ floor. By finding a player’s average weekly score and standard deviation, and using the idea of six sigma, we can determine a value for 84% of a player’s scores throughout the year. Looking at the normal distribution below, we get to 84 percent because 68.2% of all weekly scores will fall within 1 standard deviation on either side of the mean. Another 13.6% will fall two standard deviations above the mean, and another 2.1% will fall three standard deviations above the mean, and lastly, .1% of a player’s scores will fall over three standard deviations above the mean. This is what six sigma quality is based on, the idea that 99.9% of results will fall within three standard deviations of the mean. It is used for things like determining an expiration date of food. Take milk, you would get 100 different gallons of milk, let them go bad, log the amount of days each takes to go bad. Then you determine the average and standard deviation from that data set. Say the average is 20 days, with a standard deviation of 3. Since we know that 99.9% of all outcomes will fall right of three standard deviations left of the mean, we can say three standard deviations of three is nine. Subtract that from 20 is 11. So by putting an expiration date of 11 days after a gallon of milk is produced, we can know that on the 11th day, 99.9% will still be good, but will now start to go bad. That way there is an incredibly small chance that any will go bad before the expiration date.
So how does this all relate to fantasy football? I’ll tell you. A lot of us are used to looking at full season values and drafting players projected to score the most points throughout the season. Unfortunately, this isn’t roto and all that matters to us is what a player scores in a given week. Accumulation of points in all honestly doesn’t matter in fantasy football. Every week resets. So while it’s great that player X is projected to outscore player Y at the end of the year, that doesn’t really tell us how a player will do week to week, which is what we’re really concerned about. Case in point, would you rather have a running back who scores 20 points in back to back weeks, or one who scores 39 one week and 1 the other? They are both averaging 20 points over those two weeks, but in all likelihood, the second player killed you in the 1 point week, while the first player most likely helped you win both weeks. This is where establishing a floor comes in extremely handy. Say you have two QBs who both average 20 points per game, player A has a standard deviation of 4, while player B has a standard deviation of 7. Using the idea of the normal distribution like I outlined above, player a will score at least (or have a floor of) 16 points in 84% (or 13 in a 16 game season) of their games. Player B will score at least (or have a floor of) 13 points in at 84% (or 13 in a 16 game season) of their games. Player A will have a three point floor advantage over Player B. Three points might not seem like much, but now take that over an entire roster (say 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1FLEX, 1K and 1DST). If your team has a three point floor advantage at each position, that is a 27 point (three points times nine players) higher floor than your opponent. While that is an extreme example, you can see the point here. If the idea is to score more points than your opponent each week, then it is imperative to SCORE MORE POINTS EACH WEEK! Having a roster of players projected to score more points over the course of a season is great, but if they have wide variations in their weekly scoring, they will leave you with a lower floor, or greater chance for disaster.
What is the flip side then? Well the flip side is in upside. Take the above scenario. If we can determine that 84% of player A’s weekly point totals will be above 16 points, we can also take the reverse for player B. In this case, we can look at upside. Take the average of 20 points and add one standard deviation, or 7 points. What we can say now is that 14% of the time, player B will score above 27 points. Conversely, Player A will only exceed 24 points 14% of the time. This means player B has greater upside.
This will be imperfect (since it relies on last years’ data and projections to an extent), but so are all predictive models in fantasy sports. To make this work, you will need two sets of data. You will need weekly scoring from the previous year, and projected scoring from the upcoming year (to get a per game average). Better yet, take upcoming year projections, and try to apply them to projecting each game in the upcoming schedule. This will give you a current standard deviation to use. Take the average points per game and subtract one standard deviation. This will give you the player’s floor. In a couple of my leagues last year, the average points per team per week was around 95 using standard scoring, non-PPR. Using this drafting strategy, your draft should basically be a race to 96 points as your team’s average. We’re looking at floor, however. To get that, let’s take one standard deviation from each position on a standard roster away from the average score to get the floor we need to shoot for. To do that, let’s just use the average positional standard deviation. (QB – 5.18, RB – 3.58, WR – 3.49, TE – 2.71 FLEX – 3.26, and for kicker and defense, we’ll just use 3) Remember, since there are 2 RB and WR, we have to use that number twice. Doing this, we get 31.29. Now we subtract 31.29 from 96 to get 64.71. This is the floor we need to shoot for in our draft. You can’t control your schedule, but you should be able to put together a team that has a good shot week in and week out. You will probably be hard pressed to field a team with a projected 96 points as their floor, but remember, the floor is the expected WORST case scenario. Just get a couple players to perform at their mean or above and you’re quickly at or past your league’s mean score.
So now that we know how to draft a team with a good shot at winning week in and week out, there are a couple caveats to this approach. First off, standard deviation by definition is greatly affected by outlier performances. Stars are going to have larger standard deviations because they are more likely to go off, thus inflating their average and therefore, standard deviation. Don’t let this shy you away from them. The other side of this coin is that they have a huge ceiling. Remember, the player will outscore their floor 84% of the time, their average 50% of the time and their ceiling 14% of the time. The other thing to keep in mind is this strategy will leave you with a lot of boring old very good players. They tend to have the least amount of fluctuation in their game. These are the running backs who just go out and score 10 fantasy points per week one way or another. While they are unsexy, there is a lot to be said for this kind of player. As the numbers show, this is the kind of player who will rarely kill you. They are also less likely to give you the crazy week, but they will almost always help you win.
Below, you’ll see the average projected score per game per player for this year along with their standard deviation from last year. For rookies, I’ll just use last year’s average standard deviation for their position. Along with those numbers, I’ll post the +/- 1 standard deviation score to help you in your drafting. Take a look at the numbers, and work with them to find the best combination of safety vs. upside. Doing this will help take a lot of the guesswork out of your team and should win you a lot of games.
One last note on the numbers. When determining the standard deviation for each player, I took out games in which that player scored 0 points from sitting out for whatever reason. When you look at the weekly scoring at a lot of places, you’ll just see a 0 populated. I can see both sides of the argument for using a 0 for a game in which a player doesn’t play. On the one hand, they didn’t score any points, but on the other, a 0 will really throw off the numbers for what was essentially a non-event for the player. By and large, if a guy scores a 0, it was due to an issue you knew about ahead of time and could safely find someone else. You most likely weren’t using players on games they didn’t play. Make sense?
As always, thanks for reading, stay tuned for lots more pre-draft features and good luck!
QB:
Name
|
Team
|
Bye
|
Average
|
Std Dev
|
Floor
|
Ceiling
|
Andrew Luck
|
IND
|
10
|
25.96
|
8.85
|
17.10
|
34.81
|
Aaron Rodgers
|
GB
|
7
|
25.05
|
8.24
|
16.81
|
33.29
|
Russell Wilson
|
SEA
|
9
|
22.81
|
9.20
|
13.61
|
32.01
|
Ben Roethlisberger
|
PIT
|
11
|
22.43
|
10.14
|
12.29
|
32.57
|
Cam Newton
|
CAR
|
5
|
21.44
|
7.59
|
13.85
|
29.03
|
Peyton Manning
|
DEN
|
7
|
21.36
|
7.91
|
13.45
|
29.27
|
Matt Ryan
|
ATL
|
10
|
21.18
|
6.78
|
14.40
|
27.97
|
Drew Brees
|
NO
|
11
|
21.03
|
5.66
|
15.36
|
26.69
|
Tony Romo
|
DAL
|
6
|
20.85
|
6.11
|
14.74
|
26.97
|
Matthew Stafford
|
DET
|
9
|
20.59
|
7.36
|
13.24
|
27.95
|
Eli Manning
|
NYG
|
11
|
20.51
|
7.50
|
13.01
|
28.01
|
Ryan Tannehill
|
MIA
|
5
|
20.44
|
6.61
|
13.83
|
27.04
|
Philip Rivers
|
SD
|
10
|
19.80
|
8.01
|
11.79
|
27.81
|
Colin Kaepernick
|
SF
|
10
|
19.44
|
6.54
|
12.91
|
25.98
|
Teddy Bridgewater
|
MIN
|
5
|
19.32
|
5.28
|
14.04
|
24.60
|
Jay Cutler
|
CHI
|
7
|
18.99
|
6.18
|
12.80
|
25.17
|
Jameis Winston
|
TB
|
6
|
18.63
|
5.18
|
13.45
|
23.80
|
Andy Dalton
|
CIN
|
7
|
18.55
|
7.46
|
11.09
|
26.01
|
Joe Flacco
|
BAL
|
9
|
18.15
|
7.01
|
11.14
|
25.16
|
Sam Bradford
|
PHI
|
8
|
17.98
|
5.18
|
12.81
|
23.16
|
Robert Griffin III
|
WAS
|
8
|
17.61
|
7.70
|
9.90
|
25.31
|
Alex Smith
|
KC
|
9
|
17.41
|
4.70
|
12.70
|
22.11
|
Carson Palmer
|
ARI
|
9
|
17.20
|
4.87
|
12.33
|
22.07
|
Blake Bortles
|
JAX
|
8
|
16.98
|
4.56
|
12.42
|
21.55
|
Derek Carr
|
OAK
|
6
|
16.93
|
6.18
|
10.75
|
23.11
|
Tom Brady
|
NE
|
4
|
16.86
|
8.74
|
8.12
|
25.60
|
Nick Foles
|
STL
|
6
|
16.78
|
7.32
|
9.46
|
24.11
|
Marcus Mariota
|
TEN
|
4
|
16.63
|
5.18
|
11.45
|
21.80
|
Geno Smith
|
NYJ
|
5
|
15.81
|
8.89
|
6.93
|
24.70
|
Josh McCown
|
CLE
|
11
|
12.14
|
7.28
|
4.86
|
19.42
|
Brian Hoyer
|
HOU
|
9
|
9.85
|
5.37
|
4.48
|
15.22
|
Tyrod Taylor
|
BUF
|
8
|
7.16
|
5.18
|
1.98
|
12.34
|
EJ Manuel
|
BUF
|
8
|
6.97
|
1.78
|
5.19
|
8.75
|
Ryan Mallett
|
HOU
|
9
|
6.36
|
7.08
|
-0.72
|
13.45
|
Johnny Manziel
|
CLE
|
11
|
4.41
|
3.74
|
0.66
|
8.15
|
Jimmy Garoppolo
|
NE
|
4
|
4.05
|
3.33
|
0.72
|
7.38
|
Mark Sanchez
|
PHI
|
8
|
3.98
|
5.60
|
-1.63
|
9.58
|
Ryan Fitzpatrick
|
NYJ
|
5
|
2.67
|
9.49
|
-6.82
|
12.15
|
Matt Cassel
|
BUF
|
8
|
2.55
|
5.45
|
-2.90
|
8.00
|
Kirk Cousins
|
WAS
|
8
|
2.34
|
8.28
|
-5.94
|
10.63
|
RB:
Name
|
Team
|
Bye
|
Average
|
Std Dev
|
Floor
|
Ceiling
|
Jamaal Charles
|
KC
|
9
|
14.57
|
8.83
|
5.74
|
23.40
|
LeVeon Bell
|
PIT
|
11
|
14.55
|
9.35
|
5.20
|
23.90
|
Eddie Lacy
|
GB
|
7
|
14.44
|
7.17
|
7.28
|
21.61
|
Adrian Peterson
|
MIN
|
5
|
14.40
|
3.58
|
10.82
|
17.98
|
Marshawn Lynch
|
SEA
|
9
|
14.11
|
8.91
|
5.20
|
23.02
|
DeMarco Murray
|
PHI
|
8
|
13.50
|
5.09
|
8.41
|
18.59
|
Matt Forte
|
CHI
|
7
|
13.34
|
7.18
|
6.16
|
20.52
|
C.J. Anderson
|
DEN
|
7
|
12.98
|
10.30
|
2.68
|
23.28
|
Jeremy Hill
|
CIN
|
7
|
11.99
|
7.99
|
4.00
|
19.98
|
LeSean McCoy
|
BUF
|
8
|
11.96
|
5.67
|
6.28
|
17.63
|
Justin Forsett
|
BAL
|
9
|
11.74
|
6.74
|
5.01
|
18.48
|
Joseph Randle
|
DAL
|
6
|
11.34
|
4.02
|
7.33
|
15.36
|
Mark Ingram
|
NO
|
11
|
11.11
|
6.19
|
4.92
|
17.29
|
Alfred Morris
|
WAS
|
8
|
11.05
|
6.31
|
4.74
|
17.36
|
Lamar Miller
|
MIA
|
5
|
10.94
|
5.85
|
5.08
|
16.79
|
Frank Gore
|
IND
|
10
|
10.83
|
6.53
|
4.29
|
17.36
|
Melvin Gordon
|
SD
|
10
|
10.54
|
3.58
|
6.97
|
14.12
|
Todd Gurley
|
STL
|
6
|
10.08
|
3.58
|
6.50
|
13.66
|
Latavius Murray
|
OAK
|
6
|
10.06
|
6.67
|
3.39
|
16.73
|
T.J. Yeldon
|
JAX
|
8
|
9.94
|
3.58
|
6.36
|
13.52
|
Carlos Hyde
|
SF
|
10
|
9.58
|
3.15
|
6.43
|
12.73
|
Andre Ellington
|
ARI
|
9
|
9.53
|
6.50
|
3.03
|
16.03
|
Jonathan Stewart
|
CAR
|
5
|
9.04
|
5.35
|
3.68
|
14.39
|
Joique Bell
|
DET
|
9
|
8.86
|
6.28
|
2.59
|
15.14
|
Chris Ivory
|
NYJ
|
5
|
8.76
|
4.85
|
3.91
|
13.61
|
Rashad Jennings
|
NYG
|
11
|
8.75
|
7.19
|
1.56
|
15.94
|
C.J. Spiller
|
NO
|
11
|
8.72
|
3.55
|
5.17
|
12.26
|
LeGarrette Blount
|
NE
|
4
|
8.66
|
5.53
|
3.13
|
14.19
|
Isaiah Crowell
|
CLE
|
11
|
8.55
|
5.68
|
2.87
|
14.23
|
Giovani Bernard
|
CIN
|
7
|
8.36
|
6.31
|
2.05
|
14.67
|
Tevin Coleman
|
ATL
|
10
|
8.23
|
3.58
|
4.65
|
11.80
|
Devonta Freeman
|
ATL
|
10
|
7.62
|
3.40
|
4.22
|
11.02
|
Ameer Abdullah
|
DET
|
9
|
7.46
|
3.58
|
3.88
|
11.04
|
Shane Vereen
|
NYG
|
11
|
7.29
|
5.50
|
1.78
|
12.79
|
Alfred Blue
|
HOU
|
9
|
6.75
|
4.53
|
2.22
|
11.28
|
Doug Martin
|
TB
|
6
|
6.62
|
4.07
|
2.55
|
10.69
|
Duke Johnson
|
CLE
|
11
|
6.54
|
3.58
|
2.96
|
10.12
|
David Johnson
|
ARI
|
9
|
6.41
|
3.58
|
2.83
|
9.98
|
Charles Sims
|
TB
|
6
|
6.38
|
3.48
|
2.89
|
9.86
|
David Cobb
|
TEN
|
4
|
5.93
|
3.58
|
2.35
|
9.51
|
Bishop Sankey
|
TEN
|
4
|
5.87
|
3.02
|
2.84
|
8.89
|
Danny Woodhead
|
SD
|
10
|
5.82
|
2.58
|
3.24
|
8.40
|
Darren Sproles
|
PHI
|
8
|
5.59
|
5.59
|
0.00
|
11.19
|
Tre Mason
|
STL
|
6
|
5.53
|
8.18
|
-2.65
|
13.70
|
Darren McFadden
|
DAL
|
6
|
5.38
|
3.54
|
1.84
|
8.92
|
Ryan Mathews
|
PHI
|
8
|
5.29
|
4.25
|
1.04
|
9.54
|
Fred Jackson
|
BUF
|
8
|
5.23
|
3.38
|
1.86
|
8.61
|
Montee Ball
|
DEN
|
7
|
5.21
|
4.75
|
0.46
|
9.96
|
Knile Davis
|
KC
|
9
|
5.06
|
7.81
|
-2.75
|
12.87
|
Arian Foster
|
HOU
|
9
|
5.05
|
7.86
|
-2.81
|
12.91
|
Roy Helu
|
OAK
|
6
|
4.86
|
3.56
|
1.30
|
8.41
|
Jay Ajayi
|
MIA
|
5
|
4.84
|
3.58
|
1.27
|
8.42
|
Lorenzo Taliaferro
|
BAL
|
9
|
4.59
|
6.22
|
-1.62
|
10.81
|
Reggie Bush
|
SF
|
10
|
4.56
|
4.81
|
-0.24
|
9.37
|
Pierre Thomas
|
HOU
|
9
|
4.48
|
5.86
|
-1.39
|
10.34
|
Theo Riddick
|
DET
|
9
|
4.37
|
4.85
|
-0.48
|
9.22
|
Dan Herron
|
IND
|
10
|
4.30
|
4.36
|
-0.06
|
8.66
|
Javorius Allen
|
BAL
|
9
|
4.15
|
3.58
|
0.57
|
7.73
|
James Starks
|
GB
|
7
|
4.15
|
4.10
|
0.05
|
8.25
|
DeAngelo Williams
|
PIT
|
11
|
4.09
|
1.58
|
2.51
|
5.67
|
Bilal Powell
|
NYJ
|
5
|
4.05
|
2.27
|
1.78
|
6.32
|
Denard Robinson
|
JAX
|
8
|
3.96
|
6.55
|
-2.60
|
10.51
|
Andre Williams
|
NYG
|
11
|
3.93
|
5.51
|
-1.58
|
9.44
|
Lance Dunbar
|
DAL
|
6
|
3.93
|
1.50
|
2.42
|
5.43
|
Matt Asiata
|
MIN
|
5
|
3.70
|
8.20
|
-4.50
|
11.90
|
Matt Jones
|
WAS
|
8
|
3.54
|
3.58
|
-0.04
|
7.12
|
Benny Cunningham
|
STL
|
6
|
3.49
|
3.46
|
0.04
|
6.95
|
James White
|
NE
|
4
|
3.37
|
1.17
|
2.20
|
4.54
|
Khiry Robinson
|
NO
|
11
|
3.35
|
4.61
|
-1.26
|
7.96
|
Travaris Cadet
|
NE
|
4
|
3.24
|
2.22
|
1.02
|
5.46
|
Jerick McKinnon
|
MIN
|
5
|
3.19
|
4.25
|
-1.06
|
7.44
|
Robert Turbin
|
SEA
|
9
|
3.08
|
3.06
|
0.02
|
6.13
|
Silas Redd
|
WAS
|
8
|
2.84
|
3.42
|
-0.58
|
6.26
|
Jacquizz Rodgers
|
CHI
|
7
|
2.84
|
2.62
|
0.22
|
5.45
|
DeAnthony Thomas
|
KC
|
9
|
2.66
|
1.97
|
0.69
|
4.63
|
Antone Smith
|
ATL
|
10
|
2.63
|
5.95
|
-3.32
|
8.58
|
Jonas Gray
|
NE
|
4
|
2.59
|
13.52
|
-10.92
|
16.11
|
Mike Tolbert
|
CAR
|
5
|
2.59
|
1.73
|
0.87
|
4.32
|
Toby Gerhart
|
JAX
|
8
|
2.52
|
3.47
|
-0.95
|
5.99
|
Christine Michael
|
SEA
|
9
|
2.47
|
2.07
|
0.40
|
4.54
|
WR:
Name
|
Team
|
Bye
|
Average
|
Std Dev
|
Floor
|
Ceiling
|
Antonio Brown
|
PIT
|
11
|
13.64
|
5.69
|
7.95
|
19.33
|
Odell Beckham Jr
|
NYG
|
11
|
13.59
|
8.64
|
4.95
|
22.22
|
Demaryius Thomas
|
DEN
|
7
|
13.17
|
8.93
|
4.24
|
22.10
|
Dez Bryant
|
DAL
|
6
|
13.04
|
7.21
|
5.83
|
20.24
|
Jordy Nelson
|
GB
|
7
|
12.78
|
7.88
|
4.90
|
20.66
|
Julio Jones
|
ATL
|
10
|
12.59
|
8.22
|
4.37
|
20.82
|
Calvin Johnson
|
DET
|
9
|
12.52
|
8.85
|
3.67
|
21.37
|
A.J. Green
|
CIN
|
7
|
11.52
|
6.98
|
4.54
|
18.50
|
Randall Cobb
|
GB
|
7
|
11.43
|
5.45
|
5.98
|
16.87
|
T.Y. Hilton
|
IND
|
10
|
11.16
|
8.00
|
3.16
|
19.15
|
Alshon Jeffery
|
CHI
|
7
|
10.93
|
5.24
|
5.69
|
16.16
|
Mike Evans
|
TB
|
6
|
10.68
|
8.00
|
2.68
|
18.69
|
DeAndre Hopkins
|
HOU
|
9
|
10.62
|
8.10
|
2.52
|
18.72
|
Emmanuel Sanders
|
DEN
|
7
|
10.03
|
6.52
|
3.51
|
16.54
|
Kelvin Benjamin
|
CAR
|
5
|
9.58
|
5.57
|
4.01
|
15.15
|
Brandin Cooks
|
NO
|
11
|
9.41
|
6.19
|
3.21
|
15.60
|
Jordan Matthews
|
PHI
|
8
|
9.07
|
6.95
|
2.12
|
16.02
|
DeSean Jackson
|
WAS
|
8
|
8.89
|
6.90
|
1.99
|
15.80
|
Sammy Watkins
|
BUF
|
8
|
8.89
|
7.21
|
1.68
|
16.09
|
Keenan Allen
|
SD
|
10
|
8.84
|
6.66
|
2.19
|
15.50
|
Golden Tate
|
DET
|
9
|
8.79
|
5.68
|
3.11
|
14.48
|
Brandon Marshall
|
NYJ
|
5
|
8.78
|
6.96
|
1.83
|
15.74
|
Martavis Bryant
|
PIT
|
11
|
8.51
|
7.18
|
1.34
|
15.69
|
Amari Cooper
|
OAK
|
6
|
8.49
|
3.49
|
5.00
|
11.98
|
Nelson Agholor
|
PHI
|
8
|
8.41
|
3.49
|
4.91
|
11.90
|
Vincent Jackson
|
TB
|
6
|
8.41
|
4.15
|
4.25
|
12.56
|
Brandon LaFell
|
NE
|
4
|
8.28
|
5.95
|
2.33
|
14.22
|
Andre Johnson
|
IND
|
10
|
8.24
|
4.85
|
3.39
|
13.09
|
Allen Robinson
|
JAX
|
8
|
8.21
|
3.39
|
4.82
|
11.60
|
Mike Wallace
|
MIN
|
5
|
8.19
|
4.16
|
4.03
|
12.35
|
Anquan Boldin
|
SF
|
10
|
8.07
|
5.46
|
2.61
|
13.53
|
Roddy White
|
ATL
|
10
|
7.93
|
4.11
|
3.81
|
12.04
|
Julian Edelman
|
NE
|
4
|
7.85
|
5.45
|
2.40
|
13.30
|
Torrey Smith
|
SF
|
10
|
7.75
|
6.04
|
1.71
|
13.79
|
Michael Floyd
|
ARI
|
9
|
7.61
|
7.00
|
0.61
|
14.60
|
Charles Johnson
|
MIN
|
5
|
7.55
|
4.78
|
2.77
|
12.33
|
Jeremy Maclin
|
KC
|
9
|
7.44
|
8.15
|
-0.70
|
15.59
|
Larry Fitzgerald
|
ARI
|
9
|
7.39
|
5.70
|
1.70
|
13.09
|
Eric Decker
|
NYJ
|
5
|
7.36
|
6.46
|
0.90
|
13.82
|
Steve Smith
|
BAL
|
9
|
7.11
|
6.87
|
0.25
|
13.98
|
Jarvis Landry
|
MIA
|
5
|
6.96
|
4.18
|
2.78
|
11.15
|
Marques Colston
|
NO
|
11
|
6.90
|
3.20
|
3.70
|
10.10
|
John Brown
|
ARI
|
9
|
6.84
|
5.30
|
1.55
|
12.14
|
Terrance Williams
|
DAL
|
6
|
6.75
|
5.53
|
1.22
|
12.28
|
Victor Cruz
|
NYG
|
11
|
6.73
|
5.51
|
1.22
|
12.24
|
Pierre Garcon
|
WAS
|
8
|
6.71
|
5.17
|
1.54
|
11.88
|
Kenny Stills
|
MIA
|
5
|
6.59
|
5.37
|
1.22
|
11.95
|
Malcom Floyd
|
SD
|
10
|
6.53
|
3.67
|
2.86
|
10.19
|
Kendall Wright
|
TEN
|
4
|
6.45
|
5.76
|
0.69
|
12.21
|
Doug Baldwin
|
SEA
|
9
|
6.44
|
4.89
|
1.55
|
11.33
|
DeVante Parker
|
MIA
|
5
|
6.08
|
0.00
|
6.08
|
6.08
|
Rueben Randle
|
NYG
|
11
|
6.05
|
5.07
|
0.98
|
11.12
|
Marvin Jones
|
CIN
|
7
|
5.96
|
3.49
|
2.46
|
9.45
|
Brian Quick
|
STL
|
6
|
5.86
|
6.58
|
-0.72
|
12.44
|
Breshad Perriman
|
BAL
|
9
|
5.58
|
3.49
|
2.09
|
9.07
|
Dwayne Bowe
|
CLE
|
11
|
5.45
|
2.31
|
3.14
|
7.76
|
Kenny Britt
|
STL
|
6
|
5.42
|
4.66
|
0.75
|
10.08
|
Allen Hurns
|
JAX
|
8
|
5.37
|
7.07
|
-1.70
|
12.44
|
Steve Johnson
|
SD
|
10
|
5.30
|
3.62
|
1.68
|
8.92
|
Davante Adams
|
GB
|
7
|
5.25
|
3.65
|
1.60
|
8.90
|
Taylor Gabriel
|
CLE
|
11
|
5.24
|
4.11
|
1.14
|
9.35
|
Cody Latimer
|
DEN
|
7
|
5.23
|
0.25
|
4.98
|
5.48
|
Michael Crabtree
|
OAK
|
6
|
5.17
|
4.74
|
0.43
|
9.91
|
Kevin White
|
CHI
|
7
|
5.08
|
3.49
|
1.59
|
8.57
|
Kamar Aiken
|
BAL
|
9
|
4.81
|
3.58
|
1.23
|
8.39
|
Dorial Green-Beckham
|
TEN
|
4
|
4.62
|
3.49
|
1.13
|
8.11
|
Greg Jennings
|
MIA
|
5
|
4.58
|
3.62
|
0.96
|
8.19
|
Percy Harvin
|
BUF
|
8
|
4.56
|
5.39
|
-0.83
|
9.95
|
Robert Woods
|
BUF
|
8
|
4.50
|
5.05
|
-0.55
|
9.55
|
Markus Wheaton
|
PIT
|
11
|
4.48
|
3.50
|
0.98
|
7.98
|
Brian Hartline
|
CLE
|
11
|
4.43
|
2.79
|
1.64
|
7.22
|
Marqise Lee
|
JAX
|
8
|
4.43
|
3.64
|
0.79
|
8.06
|
Jermaine Kearse
|
SEA
|
9
|
4.42
|
2.51
|
1.91
|
6.93
|
Stedman Bailey
|
STL
|
6
|
4.41
|
4.38
|
0.04
|
8.79
|
Cecil Shorts
|
HOU
|
9
|
4.35
|
3.94
|
0.41
|
8.29
|
Phillip Dorsett
|
IND
|
10
|
4.33
|
3.49
|
0.84
|
7.82
|
Mohamed Sanu
|
CIN
|
7
|
4.29
|
6.26
|
-1.97
|
10.55
|
Harry Douglas
|
TEN
|
4
|
4.28
|
3.42
|
0.86
|
7.69
|
Cordarrelle Patterson
|
MIN
|
5
|
4.23
|
4.76
|
-0.54
|
8.99
|
Josh Huff
|
PHI
|
8
|
4.18
|
1.37
|
2.80
|
5.55
|
Chris Matthews
|
SEA
|
9
|
4.13
|
3.49
|
0.64
|
7.62
|
Andrew Hawkins
|
CLE
|
11
|
4.10
|
4.64
|
-0.54
|
8.74
|
Nick Toon
|
NO
|
11
|
4.06
|
1.57
|
2.49
|
5.62
|
Devin Funchess
|
CAR
|
5
|
4.03
|
3.49
|
0.53
|
7.52
|
Cole Beasley
|
DAL
|
6
|
3.98
|
4.54
|
-0.56
|
8.52
|
Albert Wilson
|
KC
|
9
|
3.97
|
2.86
|
1.11
|
6.82
|
Eddie Royal
|
CHI
|
7
|
3.88
|
6.18
|
-2.30
|
10.06
|
Donte Moncrief
|
IND
|
10
|
3.81
|
7.69
|
-3.87
|
11.50
|
Tavon Austin
|
STL
|
6
|
3.78
|
2.58
|
1.19
|
6.36
|
Rod Streater
|
OAK
|
6
|
3.71
|
4.24
|
-0.52
|
7.95
|
Andre Roberts
|
WAS
|
8
|
3.71
|
2.88
|
0.82
|
6.59
|
Nate Washington
|
HOU
|
9
|
3.58
|
4.08
|
-0.51
|
7.66
|
Tyler Lockett
|
SEA
|
9
|
3.48
|
3.49
|
-0.01
|
6.97
|
Chris Conley
|
KC
|
9
|
3.23
|
3.49
|
-0.27
|
6.72
|
Jerricho Cotchery
|
CAR
|
5
|
3.15
|
2.51
|
0.64
|
5.66
|
Quinton Patton
|
SF
|
10
|
3.04
|
0.30
|
2.74
|
3.34
|
Danny Amendola
|
NE
|
4
|
2.93
|
2.43
|
0.50
|
5.36
|
Riley Cooper
|
PHI
|
8
|
2.88
|
4.07
|
-1.19
|
6.94
|
Jeremy Kerley
|
NYJ
|
5
|
2.84
|
3.39
|
-0.55
|
6.23
|
Marquess Wilson
|
CHI
|
7
|
2.81
|
2.70
|
0.11
|
5.51
|
TE:
Name
|
Team
|
Bye
|
Average
|
Std Dev
|
Floor
|
Ceiling
|
Rob Gronkowski
|
NE
|
4
|
11.89
|
6.58
|
5.31
|
18.48
|
Jimmy Graham
|
SEA
|
9
|
9.04
|
6.33
|
2.71
|
15.38
|
Travis Kelce
|
KC
|
9
|
8.06
|
4.23
|
3.83
|
12.28
|
Greg Olsen
|
CAR
|
5
|
7.93
|
5.14
|
2.80
|
13.07
|
Martellus Bennett
|
CHI
|
7
|
7.44
|
5.03
|
2.40
|
12.47
|
Zach Ertz
|
PHI
|
8
|
7.13
|
3.92
|
3.21
|
11.05
|
Delanie Walker
|
TEN
|
4
|
6.41
|
5.38
|
1.02
|
11.79
|
Dwayne Allen
|
IND
|
10
|
6.36
|
3.49
|
2.87
|
9.84
|
Jason Witten
|
DAL
|
6
|
6.26
|
3.84
|
2.41
|
10.10
|
Julius Thomas
|
JAX
|
8
|
6.04
|
8.36
|
-2.31
|
14.40
|
Josh Hill
|
NO
|
11
|
5.94
|
4.40
|
1.54
|
10.33
|
Heath Miller
|
PIT
|
11
|
5.86
|
4.32
|
1.54
|
10.18
|
Jordan Cameron
|
MIA
|
5
|
5.83
|
5.23
|
0.59
|
11.06
|
Austin Seferian-Jenkins
|
TB
|
6
|
5.56
|
3.16
|
2.40
|
8.72
|
Coby Fleener
|
IND
|
10
|
5.37
|
6.59
|
-1.22
|
11.95
|
Charles Clay
|
BUF
|
8
|
5.14
|
3.97
|
1.17
|
9.12
|
Kyle Rudolph
|
MIN
|
5
|
5.06
|
2.25
|
2.81
|
7.31
|
Antonio Gates
|
SD
|
10
|
4.92
|
7.61
|
-2.69
|
12.53
|
Tyler Eifert
|
CIN
|
7
|
4.92
|
2.71
|
2.21
|
7.63
|
Owen Daniels
|
DEN
|
7
|
4.87
|
4.29
|
0.57
|
9.16
|
Larry Donnell
|
NYG
|
11
|
4.66
|
5.68
|
-1.02
|
10.33
|
Jared Cook
|
STL
|
6
|
4.62
|
4.70
|
-0.08
|
9.32
|
Jace Amaro
|
NYJ
|
5
|
4.59
|
3.36
|
1.22
|
7.95
|
Eric Ebron
|
DET
|
9
|
4.44
|
2.30
|
2.15
|
6.74
|
Jordan Reed
|
WAS
|
8
|
4.31
|
3.69
|
0.62
|
7.99
|
Vernon Davis
|
SF
|
10
|
4.18
|
4.12
|
0.06
|
8.30
|
Ladarius Green
|
SD
|
10
|
4.16
|
2.17
|
1.98
|
6.33
|
Clive Walford
|
OAK
|
6
|
3.96
|
2.71
|
1.25
|
6.66
|
Richard Rodgers
|
GB
|
7
|
3.76
|
2.94
|
0.83
|
6.70
|
Mychal Rivera
|
OAK
|
6
|
3.43
|
5.33
|
-1.90
|
8.76
|
Rob Housler
|
CLE
|
11
|
3.39
|
0.72
|
2.67
|
4.12
|
Garrett Graham
|
HOU
|
9
|
3.19
|
2.62
|
0.57
|
5.81
|
Crockett Gillmore
|
BAL
|
9
|
2.84
|
1.66
|
1.18
|
4.50
|
Jacob Tamme
|
ATL
|
10
|
2.78
|
2.67
|
0.11
|
5.44
|
Lance Kendricks
|
STL
|
6
|
2.59
|
3.21
|
-0.63
|
5.80
|
Jermaine Gresham
|
ARI
|
9
|
2.59
|
3.73
|
-1.14
|
6.32
|
Virgil Green
|
DEN
|
7
|
2.44
|
3.94
|
-1.49
|
6.38
|
Niles Paul
|
WAS
|
8
|
2.40
|
4.09
|
-1.69
|
6.49
|
Andrew Quarless
|
GB
|
7
|
2.36
|
2.81
|
-0.45
|
5.18
|
Gavin Escobar
|
DAL
|
6
|
2.35
|
6.06
|
-3.71
|
8.41
|
Scott Chandler
|
NE
|
4
|
2.34
|
3.44
|
-1.10
|
5.77
|
Brent Celek
|
PHI
|
8
|
2.32
|
3.14
|
-0.82
|
5.46
|
Ben Watson
|
NO
|
11
|
2.31
|
2.45
|
-0.13
|
4.76
|
Marcedes Lewis
|
JAX
|
8
|
2.16
|
4.29
|
-2.13
|
6.45
|
Jeff Cumberland
|
NYJ
|
5
|
1.82
|
3.89
|
-2.07
|
5.71
|
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