Examining Breakout Performances

Hello and welcome to Market Fantasy!

Today, I want to take a look at breakout performances for this year and see what they meant for future performances. First, the details. For this exercise, I looked at a few things. First I took a players’ highest weekly score so far this year. I then compared that to their average score to see how much higher it was as a percentage than their average weekly score. Next I took a look at what that player did the next week and found the difference. So in the charts below, from left to right, are: the player’s weekly average score, their max score, the percentage over the average score their max score was, the difference between their max score and the next week’s score , what week their max score came in,  and what they did the next week. To be included in this study, I looked at players who’s max score was: 150% above their average for QB’s and 200% above their average for everyone else. I also excluded players whose top score came in week 8, since we don’t know what they’ll follow that up with yet. Lastly, for comparison’s sake, the average position score for the week after the max score and the difference average difference between the max and next week scores are at the bottom of each positional chart.

The QB chart is a nice mix of the range of players at the position. There are no-brainer starters and waiver wire fodder throughout. The picture changes for the RB and TE and to a lesser extent, the WR charts. Most of the players in these charts are guys who were not drafted, but were all hot waiver wire pickups at some point throughout the year so far. Take a look at what the RB, WR, and TE all did the week after their “breakout” weeks. The RB and WR followed up their breakout weeks with around 6.5 points on average. The TEs came in at 4.7 the next week.

So what does this mean? I think there are two takeaways to be had here and they both center around playing the waivers. The first is that these players are not owned when you pick them up for a reason – they are inconsistent with no proven history of performance. Football, more so than any other sport, is won on the waivers. This means that if you are blowing your budget or prime waiver spot on the latest hot thing, you are going to be constantly chasing your tail and end up stuck when one of your guys gets hurt or you miss out on a true breakout (think Colston, Boldin, Alf) when they happen. The RB and WR numbers show that you can expect middling flex value the next week.  Chasing the next hot thing constantly brings me to my second point: the trap that so many fantasy players fall into called the “gambler’s fallacy.”

In game theory (yes, that’s an actual thing in the field of statistics), the gambler’s fallacy is the idea that a certain outcome is “due” because of previous outcomes. The best example is a simple question. If you flip a coin five times and get five heads, what are the odds that the next flip will be tails? The tendency for a lot of people would be to say that tails has a better than 50/50 chance of happening, but this is simply not true. Every time you flip a coin, the chance of heads or tails is always 50/50. That is because each flip is an independent event. In fantasy sports, there is a strong tendency to want to chase stats based on the previous games’ outcome, but in reality, each game is an independent event with very little correlation to the previous game. All kinds of variables change or reset to produce a completely different situation. This is why the return on a player with a poor performance history is generally very low the week after a breakout game. Keep this in mind next time you’re tempted to splurge on the hot free agent pick up. Remember to consider things like: opportunity, signals pointing to a change in role (snaps, targets, etc..). Consult my consistency rankings to see if a player’s breakout is in line with what we’ve come to expect. 

Thanks for reading and good luck in week 9!

Player		Avg		Max		Max Percent of Average		Max Over Average		Max Week		Week After Max
Joe Flacco BAL		20.6		45.2		219.42%		24.6		6		18.7
Cam Newton CAR		18.9		41.1		217.46%		22.2		6		16.3
Teddy Bridgewater MIN		12.5		26.4		211.20%		13.9		4		2.6
Derek Carr OAK		16.1		33.5		208.07%		17.4		6		7.1
Eli Manning NYG		21.1		43.1		204.27%		22		4		20
Austin Davis STL		17.5		35		200.00%		17.5		5		13.4
Kirk Cousins WAS		19.4		38.6		198.97%		19.2		3		7.5
Matt Ryan ATL		22.3		42.4		190.13%		20.1		1		12
Matthew Stafford DET		20.4		37		181.37%		16.6		1		16.4
Russell Wilson SEA		26.4		47.1		178.41%		20.7		7		15.5
Colin Kaepernick SF		21.7		38.4		176.96%		16.7		6		16.3
Brian Hoyer CLE		15.9		27.8		174.84%		11.9		5		14.7
Alex Smith KC		16.9		28.7		169.82%		11.8		4		10.9
Blake Bortles JAC		14.6		24.2		165.75%		9.6		6		10.1
Nick Foles PHI		21.5		35.2		163.72%		13.7		3		3.9
Average:								16.8				13

Player		Avg		Max		Max Percent of Average		Max Over Average		Max Week		Week After Max
LeGarrette Blount PIT		5.1		20.8		407.84%		15.7		3		2.5
Denard Robinson JAC		6.2		21.7		350.00%		15.5		7		14.8
Matt Asiata MIN		8.1		28		345.68%		19.9		4		5.2
Theo Riddick DET		5		14.1		282.00%		9.1		6		13.9
Shane Vereen NE		8.4		23.4		278.57%		15		7		4.5
Frank Gore SF		9.6		26.4		275.00%		16.8		4		13.8
Chris Johnson NYJ		5.5		15.1		274.55%		9.6		1		2.1
Pierre Thomas NO		8.6		23.2		269.77%		14.6		5		3
Jerick McKinnon MIN		6.8		18.2		267.65%		11.4		4		4.6
Branden Oliver SD		12.6		33.2		263.49%		20.6		5		21.4
Carlos Hyde SF		4.2		11		261.90%		6.8		1		0.5
Bobby Rainey TB		8		20.4		255.00%		12.4		2		6.5
Darren Sproles PHI		11.3		28.8		254.87%		17.5		2		3
Eddie Lacy GB		11.5		28.2		245.22%		16.7		5		4
Reggie Bush DET		6.6		15.9		240.91%		9.3		3		6.5
Andre Williams NYG		6.1		14.3		234.43%		8.2		5		5.9
Andre Ellington ARI		13		29.4		226.15%		16.4		5		9.3
Bishop Sankey TEN		5.3		11.7		220.75%		6.4		4		2.7
Isaiah Crowell CLE		7		15.2		217.14%		8.2		1		5.7
Rashad Jennings NYG		13.2		28.6		216.67%		15.4		3		5.5
Jeremy Hill CIN		7.2		15.6		216.67%		8.4		2		9.9
Khiry Robinson NO		7.3		15.7		215.07%		8.4		5		0.6
Jamaal Charles KC		13.7		28.8		210.22%		15.1		4		8.4
Alfred Blue HOU		4.2		8.8		209.52%		4.6		3		2.5
Montee Ball DEN		6.9		14.3		207.25%		7.4		1		8.9
Doug Martin TB		5.6		11.6		207.14%		6		4		7.4
Zac Stacy STL		5.9		12.1		205.08%		6.2		3		5.8
Alfred Morris WAS		10.1		20.5		202.97%		10.4		2		7.7
Terrance West CLE		7.4		15		202.70%		7.6		2		10.1
Average:								11.7				6.5

Player		Avg		Max		Max Percent of Average		Max Over Average		Max Week		Week After Max
Allen Hurns JAC		7		26		371.43%		19		1		1.3
Doug Baldwin SEA		6.6		21.3		322.73%		14.7		7		6.1
Calvin Johnson DET		10.4		33.4		321.15%		23		1		8.3
Jordan Matthews PHI		5.6		17.9		319.64%		12.3		3		2.8
Cordarrelle Patterson MIN		7.1		21.8		307.04%		14.7		1		5.6
Robert Woods BUF		5.2		15.8		303.85%		10.6		6		-1
Kenny Stills NO		6.5		19.3		296.92%		12.8		7		5.7
Andre Holmes OAK		9.2		27.1		294.57%		17.9		6		3.4
Eddie Royal SD		8.8		25.5		289.77%		16.7		4		4
Devin Hester ATL		5.8		16.5		284.48%		10.7		3		13
Reggie Wayne IND		7.5		20.9		278.67%		13.4		4		7.7
Pierre Garcon WAS		8.2		22.8		278.05%		14.6		3		2.8
Kendall Wright TEN		7.7		21		272.73%		13.3		5		0.6
Justin Hunter TEN		5.9		15.9		269.49%		10		5		7.7
Brandon Lloyd SF		5.2		14		269.23%		8.8		6		6.3
Julio Jones ATL		12.6		33.1		262.70%		20.5		3		8.2
Brandon Marshall CHI		8.7		22.8		262.07%		14.1		2		0.6
Brian Quick STL		7.9		20.7		262.03%		12.8		5		1
Keenan Allen SD		6.5		16.5		253.85%		10		4		2.5
Torrey Smith BAL		6.9		17.1		247.83%		10.2		6		14.1
T.Y. Hilton IND		14.6		35.3		241.78%		20.7		6		13.7
Vincent Jackson TB		7.2		17.4		241.67%		10.2		5		6.6
Wes Welker DEN		4.8		11		229.17%		6.2		7		0.5
Brandon LaFell NE		9.5		21.7		228.42%		12.2		6		5.5
Steve Smith BAL		12.7		28.9		227.56%		16.2		4		1.4
Malcom Floyd SD		8.5		19.3		227.06%		10.8		6		5
Jordy Nelson GB		15.3		33.9		221.57%		18.6		2		5.9
Demaryius Thomas DEN		19		41.6		218.95%		22.6		5		21.4
Sammy Watkins BUF		12.5		27.2		217.60%		14.7		7		26.7
DeSean Jackson WAS		12.4		26.7		215.32%		14.3		5		21
Anquan Boldin SF		7.2		15.4		213.89%		8.2		6		5
Roddy White ATL		9		19		211.11%		10		7		6.6
Julian Edelman NE		7.2		15		208.33%		7.8		2		8.9
James Jones OAK		8.8		18.2		206.82%		9.4		2		4.3
Terrance Williams DAL		9.6		19.7		205.21%		10.1		4		13.1
Michael Crabtree SF		7.2		14.4		200.00%		7.2		3		4.3
Average:								13.3				6.9

Player		Avg		Max		Max Percent of Average		Max Over Average		Max Week		Week After Max
Jordan Cameron CLE		5.7		19.2		336.84%		13.5		6		0.5
Timothy Wright NE		4.5		14.5		322.22%		10		5		6.1
Larry Donnell NYG		7.3		23.4		320.55%		16.1		4		0.6
Vernon Davis SF		5.2		16.4		315.38%		11.2		1		3.9
Jace Amaro NYJ		4.3		12.8		297.67%		8.5		6		2.2
Niles Paul WAS		5.6		15.9		283.93%		10.3		2		6.8
Scott Chandler BUF		4.8		13.5		281.25%		8.7		6		3.6
Jimmy Graham NO		9.8		26.8		273.47%		17		2		5.4
Josh Hill NO		4.3		10.8		251.16%		6.5		3		7.2
Delanie Walker TEN		9.3		23.2		249.46%		13.9		2		5.4
Clay Harbor JAC		6.1		15.1		247.54%		9		6		3.4
Julius Thomas DEN		12.8		31.4		245.31%		18.6		1		9.9
Antonio Gates SD		12		27.6		230.00%		15.6		2		0.8
Owen Daniels BAL		6.5		14.8		227.69%		8.3		2		0.8
Coby Fleener IND		5		10.9		218.00%		5.9		3		8.6
Zach Ertz PHI		6.5		13.7		210.77%		7.2		1		8.6
Travis Kelce KC		7.6		15.3		201.32%		7.7		4		7.5
Average:								11.1				4.7