Hello and welcome to Market Fantasy!
Today I wanted to introduce something I’ve been working on for a little bit. Below is what I’m calling my efficiency rankings. The idea is similar to my consistency rankings in how they are calculated, but looking at a different set of metrics. The consistency rankings are really more of a predictive tool than a rank, in that by showing a players average performance and standard deviation within those performances, we can get an idea of what to expect from a player in a given week.
The efficiency rankings below are based on two metrics: total number of touches and points per touch. Total number of touches is the number of times a player touches the football, either via reception or carry. Points per touch is the number of fantasy points a player scores each time they touch the ball (YTD fantasy points divided by total touches).
The idea in calculating where a player ranks is similar to how I get to my consistency ranks. In calculating the consistency ranks, more weight is given to players with higher average scores, since they are high performers, but also lowest standard deviation. A lower standard deviation gives us a smaller range of outcomes when predicting what their score will be. In calculating the below efficiency ranks, the most weight is given to the highest touches, along with the highest points per touch. The idea is to find the players who will touch the ball the most and score the most points each time they do so. A player like James Starks has a very high points per touch among running backs, but also a smaller workload, so a big game is blown out of proportion some.
One last note on the ranks: running backs will have a lower points per touch than wide receivers and tight ends due to both the higher number of touches and the nature of their touches. Whereas a receiver might average 15 yards (1.5 points) per reception, a good running back only averages 4.5 (.45 points) yards per carry (and a little more per reception).
So scroll through and let me know what you think. These ranks are a work in progress and I still haven’t decided if I like using touches or looks (targets instead of receptions plus carries) better. For now, I like touches since I am of the mind that a non-catch on a target isn’t always the receiver’s fault, whereas a catch almost always is caused by the receiver. I’ll keep thinking about it.
Thanks for reading!
Rank
|
Player
|
Touches
|
Pts/Touch
| ||||
1
|
Peterson, Adrian RB MIN
|
197
|
0.766
| ||||
2
|
Lynch, Marshawn RB SEA
|
213
|
0.725
| ||||
3
|
Charles, Jamaal RB KC
|
217
|
0.716
| ||||
4
|
Moreno, Knowshon RB DEN
|
160
|
0.873
| ||||
5
|
Forte, Matt RB CHI
|
201
|
0.708
| ||||
6
|
McCoy, LeSean RB PHI
|
223
|
0.663
| ||||
7
|
Bush, Reggie RB DET
|
167
|
0.710
| ||||
8
|
Jackson, Fred RB BUF
|
160
|
0.731
| ||||
9
|
Gore, Frank RB SF
|
172
|
0.696
| ||||
10
|
Bernard, Giovani RB CIN
|
133
|
0.844
| ||||
11
|
Morris, Alfred RB WAS
|
162
|
0.696
| ||||
12
|
Johnson, Chris RB TEN
|
173
|
0.576
| ||||
13
|
Sproles, Darren RB NO
|
79
|
0.980
| ||||
14
|
Ellington, Andre RB ARI
|
78
|
1.005
| ||||
15
|
Lacy, Eddie RB GB
|
172
|
0.569
| ||||
16
|
Murray, DeMarco RB DAL
|
142
|
0.688
| ||||
17
|
Woodhead, Danny RB SD
|
112
|
0.793
| ||||
18
|
Helu, Roy RB WAS
|
57
|
1.026
| ||||
19
|
Thomas, Pierre RB NO
|
142
|
0.632
| ||||
20
|
Ridley, Stevan RB NE
|
127
|
0.704
| ||||
21
|
Bell, Joique RB DET
|
99
|
0.801
| ||||
22
|
Stacy, Zac RB STL
|
144
|
0.607
| ||||
23
|
Tolbert, Mike RB CAR
|
74
|
0.908
| ||||
24
|
Starks, James RB GB
|
57
|
0.916
| ||||
25
|
Williams, DeAngelo RB CAR
|
150
|
0.532
| ||||
26
|
Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAC
|
163
|
0.463
| ||||
27
|
Brown, Donald RB IND
|
55
|
0.913
| ||||
28
|
Ogbonnaya, Chris RB CLE
|
47
|
0.911
| ||||
29
|
Snelling, Jason RB ATL
|
55
|
0.856
| ||||
30
|
Mathews, Ryan RB SD
|
139
|
0.552
| ||||
31
|
Bell, Le'Veon RB PIT
|
122
|
0.627
| ||||
32
|
Rodgers, Jacquizz RB ATL
|
108
|
0.639
| ||||
33
|
Bolden, Brandon RB NE
|
55
|
0.785
| ||||
34
|
Powell, Bilal RB NYJ
|
128
|
0.493
| ||||
35
|
Rice, Ray RB BAL
|
148
|
0.399
| ||||
36
|
Spiller, C.J. RB BUF
|
129
|
0.486
| ||||
37
|
Green-Ellis, BenJarvus RB CIN
|
142
|
0.443
| ||||
38
|
McFadden, Darren RB OAK
|
111
|
0.592
| ||||
39
|
Jennings, Rashad RB OAK
|
92
|
0.630
| ||||
40
|
Richardson, Trent RB IND
|
133
|
0.444
| ||||
41
|
Miller, Lamar RB MIA
|
115
|
0.549
| ||||
42
|
Mendenhall, Rashard RB ARI
|
116
|
0.464
| ||||
43
|
Thomas, Daniel RB MIA
|
73
|
0.608
| ||||
44
|
Tate, Ben RB HOU
|
123
|
0.437
| ||||
45
|
Ivory, Chris RB NYJ
|
93
|
0.459
| ||||
46
|
Pierce, Bernard RB BAL
|
102
|
0.423
| ||||
Rank
|
Player
|
Touches
|
Pts/Touch
| ||||
1
|
Jackson, DeSean WR PHI
|
54
|
2.450
| ||||
2
|
Johnson, Calvin WR DET
|
53
|
2.687
| ||||
3
|
Thomas, Demaryius WR DEN
|
55
|
2.424
| ||||
4
|
Green, A.J. WR CIN
|
65
|
2.112
| ||||
5
|
Bryant, Dez WR DAL
|
53
|
2.283
| ||||
6
|
Marshall, Brandon WR CHI
|
60
|
2.110
| ||||
7
|
Nelson, Jordy WR GB
|
49
|
2.433
| ||||
8
|
Welker, Wes WR DEN
|
53
|
2.068
| ||||
9
|
Johnson, Andre WR HOU
|
62
|
1.855
| ||||
10
|
Hilton, T.Y. WR IND
|
43
|
2.253
| ||||
11
|
Jeffery, Alshon WR CHI
|
56
|
1.802
| ||||
12
|
Jackson, Vincent WR TB
|
46
|
1.961
| ||||
13
|
Cruz, Victor WR NYG
|
50
|
1.908
| ||||
14
|
Smith, Torrey WR BAL
|
41
|
2.129
| ||||
15
|
Jones, Marvin WR CIN
|
33
|
2.788
| ||||
16
|
Tate, Golden WR SEA
|
43
|
1.960
| ||||
17
|
Gordon, Josh WR CLE
|
38
|
2.205
| ||||
18
|
Moore, Denarius WR OAK
|
35
|
2.280
| ||||
19
|
Garcon, Pierre WR WAS
|
62
|
1.602
| ||||
20
|
Decker, Eric WR DEN
|
49
|
1.798
| ||||
21
|
Cotchery, Jerricho WR PIT
|
32
|
2.531
| ||||
22
|
Williams, Terrance WR DAL
|
32
|
2.444
| ||||
23
|
Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI
|
40
|
1.943
| ||||
24
|
Allen, Keenan WR SD
|
38
|
1.968
| ||||
25
|
Royal, Eddie WR SD
|
29
|
2.693
| ||||
26
|
Cooper, Riley WR PHI
|
28
|
3.546
| ||||
27
|
Brown, Antonio WR PIT
|
71
|
1.414
| ||||
28
|
Dobson, Aaron WR NE
|
31
|
2.239
| ||||
29
|
Randle, Rueben WR NYG
|
26
|
2.704
| ||||
30
|
Kearse, Jermaine WR SEA
|
13
|
3.585
| ||||
31
|
Stills, Kenny WR NO
|
20
|
3.405
| ||||
32
|
Boldin, Anquan WR SF
|
41
|
1.693
| ||||
33
|
Baldwin, Doug WR SEA
|
35
|
1.846
| ||||
34
|
Thompkins, Kenbrell WR NE
|
23
|
2.496
| ||||
35
|
Hopkins, DeAndre WR HOU
|
37
|
1.727
| ||||
36
|
Hartline, Brian WR MIA
|
43
|
1.521
| ||||
37
|
Johnson, Steve WR BUF
|
42
|
1.574
| ||||
38
|
Brown, Marlon WR BAL
|
28
|
2.161
| ||||
39
|
Wayne, Reggie WR IND
|
39
|
1.610
| ||||
40
|
Sanders, Emmanuel WR PIT
|
42
|
1.552
| ||||
41
|
Edelman, Julian WR NE
|
51
|
1.184
| ||||
42
|
Washington, Nate WR TEN
|
29
|
2.028
| ||||
43
|
Wright, Kendall WR TEN
|
50
|
1.280
| ||||
44
|
Douglas, Harry WR ATL
|
45
|
1.422
| ||||
45
|
Shorts, Cecil WR JAC
|
48
|
1.390
| ||||
46
|
LaFell, Brandon WR CAR
|
32
|
1.841
| ||||
47
|
Floyd, Michael WR ARI
|
36
|
1.622
| ||||
48
|
Cobb, Randall WR GB
|
33
|
1.745
| ||||
49
|
Colston, Marques WR NO
|
34
|
1.674
| ||||
50
|
Smith, Steve WR CAR
|
42
|
1.500
| ||||
51
|
Ginn, Ted WR CAR
|
25
|
2.056
| ||||
52
|
Hankerson, Leonard WR WAS
|
29
|
1.897
| ||||
53
|
Jones, James WR GB
|
25
|
2.040
| ||||
54
|
Austin, Tavon WR STL
|
39
|
1.500
| ||||
55
|
Pettis, Austin WR STL
|
28
|
1.918
| ||||
56
|
Jennings, Greg WR MIN
|
34
|
1.559
| ||||
57
|
Wallace, Mike WR MIA
|
42
|
1.369
| ||||
58
|
Nicks, Hakeem WR NYG
|
38
|
1.500
| ||||
59
|
Streater, Rod WR OAK
|
30
|
1.640
| ||||
60
|
Woods, Robert WR BUF
|
28
|
1.732
| ||||
61
|
Boykin, Jarrett WR GB
|
23
|
1.835
| ||||
62
|
Simpson, Jerome WR MIN
|
33
|
1.488
| ||||
63
|
Kerley, Jeremy WR NYJ
|
29
|
1.607
| ||||
64
|
Bowe, Dwayne WR KC
|
33
|
1.482
| ||||
65
|
Givens, Chris WR STL
|
30
|
1.517
| ||||
66
|
Durham, Kris WR DET
|
26
|
1.673
| ||||
67
|
Avery, Donnie WR KC
|
29
|
1.524
| ||||
68
|
Little, Greg WR CLE
|
28
|
1.429
| ||||
Rank
|
Player
|
Touches
|
Pts/Touch
| ||||
1
|
Graham, Jimmy TE NO
|
54
|
2.602
| ||||
2
|
Cameron, Jordan TE CLE
|
50
|
1.920
| ||||
3
|
Thomas, Julius TE DEN
|
42
|
2.588
| ||||
4
|
Davis, Vernon TE SF
|
30
|
3.133
| ||||
5
|
Witten, Jason TE DAL
|
47
|
1.643
| ||||
6
|
Olsen, Greg TE CAR
|
35
|
1.771
| ||||
7
|
Cook, Jared TE STL
|
33
|
1.782
| ||||
8
|
Gonzalez, Tony TE ATL
|
47
|
1.585
| ||||
9
|
Walker, Delanie TE TEN
|
29
|
1.903
| ||||
10
|
Bennett, Martellus TE CHI
|
40
|
1.653
| ||||
11
|
Fauria, Joseph TE DET
|
9
|
4.511
| ||||
12
|
Gates, Antonio TE SD
|
52
|
1.369
| ||||
13
|
Reed, Jordan TE WAS
|
45
|
1.522
| ||||
14
|
Clay, Charles TE MIA
|
41
|
1.559
| ||||
15
|
Celek, Brent TE PHI
|
18
|
2.378
| ||||
16
|
Cumberland, Jeff TE NYJ
|
15
|
2.453
| ||||
17
|
Clark, Dallas TE BAL
|
25
|
1.840
| ||||
18
|
Fleener, Coby TE IND
|
29
|
1.766
| ||||
19
|
Gronkowski, Rob TE NE
|
19
|
1.811
| ||||
20
|
Rudolph, Kyle TE MIN
|
30
|
1.643
| ||||
21
|
Daniels, Owen TE HOU
|
24
|
1.800
| ||||
22
|
Graham, Garrett TE HOU
|
26
|
1.723
| ||||
23
|
Chandler, Scott TE BUF
|
35
|
1.451
| ||||
24
|
Wright, Timothy TE TB
|
25
|
1.592
| ||||
25
|
Eifert, Tyler TE CIN
|
30
|
1.407
| ||||
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