Touchdown Percentage

Hello and Welcome to Market Fantasy!

Today I want to talk about touchdowns and how they relate to fantasy performance. We’ve all heard about how players like Terrence Williams are completely TD dependent or how Andre Johnson can never be truly elite because he never scores. Remember two years ago when Calvin Johnson was tackled at the 1 yard line 47,000 times last year and how if not for this, his already wide receiver leading performance would’ve been even better? He also hurt Matthew Stafford by not being able to get those extra three feet. Or how about how Matt Forte isn’t truly elite because he doesn’t score that many touchdowns. Or how about those who argue that touchdowns aren’t even predictable, that they’re basically crapshoots. So what do we make of this?

What I have done is try to find out those players whose value is more dependent on the end zone dance than others. After all, if Le’Veon Bell can  be the fourth highest scoring RB while only taking it to the house three times, then maybe other players can be productive without lighting up the scoreboard. Maybe picking up Antone Smith and just waiting for the long TDs to roll in wasn’t such a great idea after all.

To do this, I have the percentage of a players’ points that have come via the touchdown this year. Quite simply it is total overall fantasy points from 2014 divided by the points from touchdowns. There are then two categories. Players whose performance is more dependent on the touchdown than average, and players who can do just fine without it, thank you very much. For the sake of these ranks, I cut off total scoring for WR and RB at 40, and TE at 30 points so far, because, honestly, even Zac Stacy has 40 points this year. 

This can sort of be looked at as a buy low, sell high guide or more of a consistency thing. If you believe that TDs are truly random, then shoot a frustrated owner of someone on the less dependent list an offer. After all, those players are doing it by yardage which is a little easier to predict. On the flip side, if someone wants to make you an offer for Matt Asiata, I would take it immediately. The three TD games are great, but with so few touches, success is far from guaranteed. Take guys like Andre Ellington and Le’Veon Bell. Both are in the less dependent list, but each is a week in and week out RB1. The TDs will come, but the yards and usage will always be there.

Scroll through the ranks and let me know what you think! There’s some surprising names in both categories I think.

Thanks for reading!

Players MORE dependent:

RB:

Player		MF Pts		TD  Points		TD % of Points
Isaiah Crowell CLE		59.3		30		50.59%
Matt Asiata MIN		87.6		42		47.95%
Antone Smith ATL		64		30		46.88%
Jamaal Charles KC		94.4		42		44.49%
Mark Ingram NO		83.9		36		42.91%
Lorenzo Taliaferro BAL		56.1		24		42.78%
Ahmad Bradshaw IND		115.4		48		41.59%
Marshawn Lynch SEA		125.2		48		38.34%
Lamar Miller MIA		96.2		36		37.42%
Ben Tate CLE		64.2		24		37.38%
Arian Foster HOU		161.1		60		37.24%
Jeremy Hill CIN		83		30		36.14%
Terrance West CLE		67.5		24		35.56%
Knile Davis KC		68.2		24		35.19%
Alfred Morris WAS		103.3		36		34.85%

WR:

Player		MF Pts		TD  Points		TD % of Points
Martavis Bryant PIT		47		30		63.83%
Randall Cobb GB		112.7		54		47.91%
Terrance Williams DAL		78.6		36		45.80%
Brandon Marshall CHI		66.4		30		45.18%
Torrey Smith BAL		67.1		30		44.71%
Eddie Royal SD		67.3		30		44.58%
John Brown ARI		56		24		42.86%
Travis Benjamin CLE		43.7		18		41.19%
Odell Beckham NYG		45.5		18		39.56%
Mike Wallace MIA		76.4		30		39.27%
Allen Hurns JAC		76.6		30		39.16%
Kendall Wright TEN		61.3		24		39.15%
Jeremy Maclin PHI		127		48		37.80%
Andre Holmes OAK		64		24		37.50%
Brandon LaFell NE		81.4		30		36.86%
Jordan Matthews PHI		49.3		18		36.51%
Dez Bryant DAL		99.5		36		36.18%
Eric Decker NYJ		66.6		24		36.04%
Kelvin Benjamin CAR		86.9		30		34.52%
Mike Evans TB		70		24		34.29%

TE:          

Player		MF Pts		TD  Points		TD % of Points
Daniel Fells NYG		32.5		24		73.85%
Lance Kendricks STL		37.5		24		64.00%
Julius Thomas DEN		96		60		62.50%
Josh Hill NO		30.2		18		59.60%
Antonio Gates SD		98.5		54		54.82%
Dwayne Allen IND		79.4		42		52.90%
Larry Donnell NYG		59.7		30		50.25%
Timothy Wright NE		36		18		50.00%
Coby Fleener IND		53.5		24		44.86%
Rob Gronkowski NE		114.3		48		41.99%
Jimmy Graham NO		79.8		30		37.59%
Mychal Rivera OAK		32.2		12		37.27%
Martellus Bennett CHI		81.7		30		36.72%
Travis Kelce KC		65.9		24		36.42%
Greg Olsen CAR		83.9		30		35.76%
Owen Daniels BAL		50.8		18		35.43%

Players LESS Dependent:

RB:

Branden Oliver SD		72		18		25.00%
DeMarco Murray DAL		170.3		42		24.66%
Andre Ellington ARI		107.2		24		22.39%
Chris Johnson NYJ		54.1		12		22.18%
Denard Robinson JAC		60		12		20.00%
Rashad Jennings NYG		60.5		12		19.83%
Darren McFadden OAK		61.9		12		19.39%
Fred Jackson BUF		62		12		19.35%
Bobby Rainey TB		64.8		12		18.52%
Justin Forsett BAL		99.1		18		18.16%
Frank Gore SF		66.9		12		17.94%
Trent Richardson IND		67.3		12		17.83%
Jonathan Stewart CAR		40.8		6		14.71%
Zac Stacy STL		41.2		6		14.56%
Bishop Sankey TEN		42.6		6		14.08%
C.J. Spiller BUF		43.6		6		13.76%
Le'Veon Bell PIT		132.4		18		13.60%
Roy Helu WAS		53.8		6		11.15%
LeSean McCoy PHI		75.6		6		7.94%
Jerick McKinnon MIN		55.2		0		0.00%

WR:

Mohamed Sanu CIN		92.8		24		25.86%
Steve Smith BAL		93.1		24		25.78%
Calvin Johnson DET		46.8		12		25.64%
Justin Hunter TEN		47.1		12		25.48%
Malcom Floyd SD		71		18		25.35%
Rueben Randle NYG		49		12		24.49%
Miles Austin CLE		50.7		12		23.67%
DeSean Jackson WAS		102		24		23.53%
Michael Floyd ARI		51.1		12		23.48%
Alshon Jeffery CHI		76.8		18		23.44%
Emmanuel Sanders DEN		104.8		24		22.90%
Markus Wheaton PIT		53.4		12		22.47%
Cordarrelle Patterson MIN		53.8		12		22.30%
Vincent Jackson TB		56.3		12		21.31%
Greg Jennings MIN		57.9		12		20.73%
Julio Jones ATL		89.5		18		20.11%
Allen Robinson JAC		60.8		12		19.74%
Larry Fitzgerald ARI		61.3		12		19.58%
Reggie Wayne IND		62.4		12		19.23%
Golden Tate DET		98.4		18		18.29%
Anquan Boldin SF		66		12		18.18%
Julian Edelman NE		72.9		12		16.46%
T.Y. Hilton IND		112.2		18		16.04%
Kenny Stills NO		43.3		6		13.86%
Percy Harvin NYJ		45.2		6		13.27%
Doug Baldwin SEA		46.9		6		12.79%
Marques Colston NO		48.4		6		12.40%
Taylor Gabriel CLE		50.1		6		11.98%
Keenan Allen SD		53.4		6		11.24%
Andrew Hawkins CLE		57.2		6		10.49%
Andre Johnson HOU		58.3		6		10.29%

TE:

Zach Ertz PHI		45.8		12		26.20%
Heath Miller PIT		50.1		12		23.95%
Jason Witten DAL		51.8		12		23.17%
Clay Harbor JAC		30.4		6		19.74%
Jordan Cameron CLE		31		6		19.35%
Jace Amaro NYJ		34.5		6		17.39%
Scott Chandler BUF		35		6		17.14%
Niles Paul WAS		46.9		6		12.79%
Jared Cook STL		34.3		0		0.00%