Hello and Welcome to Market Fantasy!
Below are the Market Fantasy consistency rankings. When I first started doing this last year, I rushed to get them out on Tuesday night to combine them with a free agent pickup column. I’ve decided to stop rushing out the free agent column. Partly because there are a billion sites all telling you to pick up the same guys, so you don’t need me to also tell you to pick up an injured RBs backup. Hopefully, you’ve figured that out on your own. I’m not trying for content just for content’s sake. Also, if there are any free agent picks you find in here, you don’t have to waste a waiver claim on them Tuesday night when the majority of claims are processed. These guys you can pick up Wednesday as free agents and save those high claims for the in demand players everyone else is telling you about that you can probably figure out on your own. I’ll just make some quick observations about each position. Good?
Before we get started, let me give you the quick explanation of these rankings. They are based on a combination of a player’s average weekly scoring and the standard deviation of those scores. The idea is to find the players who not only average the highest points on a per week basis, but also deviate the least from that average. These are not meant to be rest of season or even weekly ranks, just an idea of how a player has performed thus far in the season. Darren McFadden tops Le’Veon Bell in these rankings, but don’t trade Bell for DMC, ok?
Like my post earlier on ceilings and floors, these ranks are meant to give you an idea of what to expect from a player. If a player has a high average score and a high standard deviation, they are not very consistent and their point average has been influenced by a huge game and the rest pedestrian games. The average score and standard deviations have been provided for each player, so use them to make your own decisions about your team and identify players to either unload or trade for.
I’ve also added the expected floors and ceilings. Remember from my Six Sigma drafting piece, following the standard distribution, a player will achieve over one standard deviation below their average 84% of the time, and will fall under one standard deviation above their average 84% of the time. These will change some on a weekly basis as the average and standard deviations move week to week, but as of now, the numbers below are what we can expect from a certain player.
As always, love to hear comments. Thanks for reading!
Inane Comments:
QB: Week 10 started out slowly for Mark Sanchez, but the final line will play in any league. 332 yards and 2 TD with no picks is not a bad day for any QB. I get the argument that Carolina is bad at defense and probably football in general, but the other side of that coin is that this game got out of hand early and he still put up numbers. He should be a fantasy starter from here on out…. It might be time to drop Cam Newton if you haven’t already done so. You’re not going to be able to trade him and he looks hurt. Too bad he can never get some weapons around him…. Colin Kaepernick is another guy that a lot of people are starting and I just don’t get why. He isn’t putting up rushing numbers, and just isn’t that good of a passer. It might come down to coaching, because he has decent weapons but can’t get it done. I don’t see him as a starter in 12 team leagues…. We get to see some backups take over as Shaun Hill, Ryan Mallett and Drew Stanton will start for their teams due to injuries and bad play. I’d ignore all three.
RB:
CJ Anderson had a huge game last week and you have to wonder if he’ll be used more now that MOntee Ball is back. Ronnie Hillman is now out and Ball was pretty terrible early on. I would think Anderson would get the majority of the work there….. I keep reading about how this is the week for Bishop Sankey every week. He might break out eventually, but I’m not gambling my playoff shot on it….. If this is the last week Jerrick McKinnon gets to start before Adrian Peterson comes back, he should get a nice swan song against the terrible Bears defense….. Call it a hunch, but this might be a big week for Darren Sproles. I can see that game getting out of hand forcing the Eagles to throw more, which should benefit Sproles over McCoy…. Word out of New York is that Rashad Jennings won’t get a full workload if he plays, so don’t give up on Andre Williams just yet if you’re desperate at RB like 98% of us are somewhere. He’s TD dependent, but still, I can see a path to 8 – 10 points
WR:
Too bad about Allen Robinson. He was looking like the Jaguars best receiver. Wait until next year I guess… I’m expecting a big get well game for the Chargers this week. They should get Ryan Mathews back, and against Oakland, I like Keenan Allen. Allen has quietly shown signs of life lately. I’d roll the dice if I had to…. Brandon LaFell has been the Patriots best receiver lately, and in what should be a shootout against the Colts, I can see him being a top 12 guy this week…. Golden Tate showed us that he can still be productive even with Calvin Johnson in the lineup last week. I’d be leery of using him this week against the Cardinals, though….. I’ve been reading people giving Cordarrelle Patterson some love this week. Even against the terrible Bears, I don’t know if I’d gamble on him. He’s just not as good as we all had hoped.
TE:
Jared Cook had a nice long TD last week. That will probably keep me from dropping swapping him out in my 14 teamer, which will probably cost me the game. I hate TE this year. It’s the worst…. If Kyle Rudolph can play this week, I’m starting him no question. He should crush the Bears… I’m really close to dropping Vernon Davis. There’s no way I’d start him at this point….. If Brandon Marshall can’t go, I’d look at Martellus Bennett having a good game. He’s still risky though.
QB:
Player
|
Avg
|
StdDev
|
Floor
|
Ceiling
| |||||
Drew Brees NO
|
24.6
|
4.32
|
20.28
|
28.92
| |||||
Peyton Manning DEN
|
33.1
|
6.59
|
26.51
|
39.69
| |||||
Andrew Luck IND
|
34.3
|
6.66
|
27.64
|
40.96
| |||||
Mark Sanchez PHI
|
22.4
|
5.85
|
16.55
|
28.25
| |||||
Kyle Orton BUF
|
22.3
|
6.14
|
16.16
|
28.44
| |||||
Mike Glennon TB
|
19.3
|
5.32
|
13.98
|
24.62
| |||||
Jay Cutler CHI
|
22.3
|
7.31
|
14.99
|
29.61
| |||||
Ryan Fitzpatrick HOU
|
16.3
|
5.36
|
10.94
|
21.66
| |||||
Tony Romo DAL
|
21.2
|
6.75
|
14.45
|
27.95
| |||||
Alex Smith KC
|
17.3
|
5.94
|
11.36
|
23.24
| |||||
Ryan Tannehill MIA
|
20.6
|
6.84
|
13.76
|
27.44
| |||||
Aaron Rodgers GB
|
30.2
|
12.05
|
18.15
|
42.25
| |||||
Matt Ryan ATL
|
21.8
|
9.06
|
12.74
|
30.86
| |||||
Philip Rivers SD
|
23.2
|
11.24
|
11.96
|
34.44
| |||||
Blake Bortles JAC
|
15
|
5.91
|
9.09
|
20.91
| |||||
Russell Wilson SEA
|
24.1
|
11.98
|
12.12
|
36.08
| |||||
Tom Brady NE
|
25.2
|
13.90
|
11.30
|
39.10
| |||||
Ben Roethlisberger PIT
|
26.4
|
16.90
|
9.50
|
43.30
| |||||
Colin Kaepernick SF
|
19.9
|
7.47
|
12.43
|
27.37
| |||||
Brian Hoyer CLE
|
15.8
|
6.59
|
9.21
|
22.39
| |||||
Eli Manning NYG
|
21.2
|
10.82
|
10.38
|
32.02
| |||||
Matthew Stafford DET
|
20.5
|
9.28
|
11.22
|
29.78
| |||||
Derek Carr OAK
|
16.1
|
7.90
|
8.20
|
24.00
| |||||
Cam Newton CAR
|
18.3
|
9.24
|
9.06
|
27.54
| |||||
Andy Dalton CIN
|
15.9
|
8.59
|
7.31
|
24.49
| |||||
Joe Flacco BAL
|
20.3
|
11.64
|
8.66
|
31.94
| |||||
Teddy Bridgewater MIN
|
13.6
|
7.76
|
5.84
|
21.36
| |||||
Josh McCown TB
|
15.8
|
9.65
|
6.15
|
25.45
| |||||
RB:
Player
|
Avg
|
StdDev
|
Floor
|
Ceiling
| |||||
DeMarco Murray DAL
|
21.2
|
5.48
|
15.72
|
26.68
| |||||
Ahmad Bradshaw IND
|
12.8
|
4.77
|
8.03
|
17.57
| |||||
Lamar Miller MIA
|
11.1
|
4.83
|
6.27
|
15.93
| |||||
Justin Forsett BAL
|
13
|
5.41
|
7.59
|
18.41
| |||||
Jonathan Stewart CAR
|
7.5
|
3.23
|
4.27
|
10.73
| |||||
Darren McFadden OAK
|
7.3
|
3.20
|
4.10
|
10.50
| |||||
Le'Veon Bell PIT
|
14.5
|
6.09
|
8.41
|
20.59
| |||||
Trent Richardson IND
|
8.4
|
3.77
|
4.63
|
12.17
| |||||
Joique Bell DET
|
8.6
|
4.09
|
4.51
|
12.69
| |||||
Roy Helu WAS
|
6.1
|
2.52
|
3.58
|
8.62
| |||||
Fred Jackson BUF
|
8.6
|
4.40
|
4.20
|
13.00
| |||||
Tre Mason STL
|
7.5
|
3.83
|
3.67
|
11.33
| |||||
LeSean McCoy PHI
|
9.9
|
5.63
|
4.27
|
15.53
| |||||
Andre Ellington ARI
|
13.4
|
6.89
|
6.51
|
20.29
| |||||
Steven Jackson ATL
|
8.2
|
4.61
|
3.59
|
12.81
| |||||
Bishop Sankey TEN
|
5.6
|
3.18
|
2.42
|
8.78
| |||||
Benny Cunningham STL
|
6.8
|
3.65
|
3.15
|
10.45
| |||||
Terrance West CLE
|
8.8
|
5.56
|
3.24
|
14.36
| |||||
Alfred Morris WAS
|
11.5
|
6.66
|
4.84
|
18.16
| |||||
Mark Ingram NO
|
18.1
|
8.23
|
9.87
|
26.33
| |||||
DeAngelo Williams CAR
|
4.6
|
1.70
|
2.90
|
6.30
| |||||
Giovani Bernard CIN
|
13.7
|
7.76
|
5.94
|
21.46
| |||||
Chris Ivory NYJ
|
10.1
|
6.60
|
3.50
|
16.70
| |||||
C.J. Spiller BUF
|
7.1
|
4.54
|
2.56
|
11.64
| |||||
Matt Forte CHI
|
17.6
|
8.58
|
9.02
|
26.18
| |||||
Ben Tate CLE
|
9.7
|
5.99
|
3.71
|
15.69
| |||||
Arian Foster HOU
|
22.9
|
10.58
|
12.32
|
33.48
| |||||
Jonas Gray NE
|
4.4
|
3.11
|
1.29
|
7.51
| |||||
Bobby Rainey TB
|
8.2
|
5.19
|
3.01
|
13.39
| |||||
Bryce Brown BUF
|
4.8
|
3.25
|
1.55
|
8.05
| |||||
Zac Stacy STL
|
5.1
|
3.45
|
1.65
|
8.55
| |||||
Doug Martin TB
|
5.6
|
3.59
|
2.01
|
9.19
| |||||
Andre Williams NYG
|
7
|
4.72
|
2.28
|
11.72
| |||||
Jamaal Charles KC
|
14
|
8.66
|
5.34
|
22.66
| |||||
Toby Gerhart JAC
|
4.1
|
2.74
|
1.36
|
6.84
| |||||
Rashad Jennings NYG
|
13.2
|
8.45
|
4.75
|
21.65
| |||||
Reggie Bush DET
|
6
|
4.30
|
1.70
|
10.30
| |||||
Shane Vereen NE
|
8.8
|
6.57
|
2.23
|
15.37
| |||||
Ronnie Hillman DEN
|
11.6
|
7.79
|
3.81
|
19.39
| |||||
Marshawn Lynch SEA
|
19.1
|
11.83
|
7.27
|
30.93
| |||||
Eddie Lacy GB
|
12.2
|
8.35
|
3.85
|
20.55
| |||||
Carlos Hyde SF
|
4.6
|
3.57
|
1.03
|
8.17
| |||||
Khiry Robinson NO
|
7.3
|
5.27
|
2.03
|
12.57
| |||||
Darren Sproles PHI
|
11
|
7.75
|
3.25
|
18.75
| |||||
Montee Ball DEN
|
6.9
|
5.12
|
1.78
|
12.02
| |||||
Frank Gore SF
|
9.7
|
7.64
|
2.06
|
17.34
| |||||
Bernard Pierce BAL
|
4.8
|
4.03
|
0.77
|
8.83
| |||||
Isaiah Crowell CLE
|
6.6
|
5.06
|
1.54
|
11.66
| |||||
Chris Johnson NYJ
|
5.8
|
4.90
|
0.90
|
10.70
| |||||
Antone Smith ATL
|
7.2
|
5.74
|
1.46
|
12.94
| |||||
Pierre Thomas NO
|
8.6
|
7.30
|
1.30
|
15.90
| |||||
Branden Oliver SD
|
11.1
|
10.90
|
0.20
|
22.00
| |||||
Jerick McKinnon MIN
|
6.8
|
5.70
|
1.10
|
12.50
| |||||
Matt Asiata MIN
|
10
|
9.74
|
0.26
|
19.74
| |||||
Jeremy Hill CIN
|
9.8
|
9.30
|
0.50
|
19.10
| |||||
Denard Robinson JAC
|
8.3
|
7.71
|
0.59
|
16.01
| |||||
Knile Davis KC
|
8.8
|
9.12
|
-0.32
|
17.92
| |||||
Theo Riddick DET
|
5.2
|
5.95
|
-0.75
|
11.15
| |||||
Lorenzo Taliaferro BAL
|
5.7
|
6.67
|
-0.97
|
12.37
| |||||
LeGarrette Blount PIT
|
4.3
|
5.90
|
-1.60
|
10.20
| |||||
Stepfan Taylor ARI
|
4
|
6.86
|
-2.86
|
10.86
| |||||
C.J. Anderson DEN
|
4.3
|
7.59
|
-3.29
|
11.89
| |||||
WR:
Player
|
Avg
|
StdDev
|
Floor
|
Ceiling
| |||||
Martavis Bryant PIT
|
17.6
|
4.96
|
12.64
|
22.56
| |||||
Mike Wallace MIA
|
9.7
|
2.58
|
7.12
|
12.28
| |||||
DeAndre Hopkins HOU
|
11
|
5.26
|
5.74
|
16.26
| |||||
Anquan Boldin SF
|
9.1
|
4.85
|
4.25
|
13.95
| |||||
Alshon Jeffery CHI
|
10
|
5.07
|
4.93
|
15.07
| |||||
Malcom Floyd SD
|
8.2
|
4.32
|
3.88
|
12.52
| |||||
Allen Robinson JAC
|
6.9
|
3.35
|
3.55
|
10.25
| |||||
Eric Decker NYJ
|
7.7
|
3.98
|
3.72
|
11.68
| |||||
Odell Beckham NYG
|
13.1
|
6.10
|
7.00
|
19.20
| |||||
Randall Cobb GB
|
15
|
6.95
|
8.05
|
21.95
| |||||
Mohamed Sanu CIN
|
12.2
|
6.14
|
6.06
|
18.34
| |||||
Vincent Jackson TB
|
7.4
|
4.25
|
3.15
|
11.65
| |||||
Andrew Hawkins CLE
|
7.5
|
4.55
|
2.95
|
12.05
| |||||
Roddy White ATL
|
9.5
|
5.55
|
3.95
|
15.05
| |||||
Dwayne Bowe KC
|
6.1
|
2.13
|
3.97
|
8.23
| |||||
Andre Johnson HOU
|
6.5
|
3.55
|
2.95
|
10.05
| |||||
Greg Jennings MIN
|
6.4
|
3.36
|
3.04
|
9.76
| |||||
Antonio Brown PIT
|
17.4
|
8.14
|
9.26
|
25.54
| |||||
Steve Johnson SF
|
6.8
|
3.92
|
2.88
|
10.72
| |||||
Dez Bryant DAL
|
14
|
7.95
|
6.05
|
21.95
| |||||
Emmanuel Sanders DEN
|
15.7
|
8.06
|
7.64
|
23.76
| |||||
Kelvin Benjamin CAR
|
10.9
|
6.27
|
4.63
|
17.17
| |||||
Marques Colston NO
|
6.4
|
3.69
|
2.71
|
10.09
| |||||
Rueben Randle NYG
|
5.9
|
3.12
|
2.78
|
9.02
| |||||
Percy Harvin NYJ
|
6.7
|
4.32
|
2.38
|
11.02
| |||||
Terrance Williams DAL
|
7.9
|
5.21
|
2.69
|
13.11
| |||||
A.J. Green CIN
|
10.1
|
6.49
|
3.61
|
16.59
| |||||
Julio Jones ATL
|
12.8
|
8.01
|
4.79
|
20.81
| |||||
Miles Austin CLE
|
5.6
|
2.97
|
2.63
|
8.57
| |||||
Cecil Shorts JAC
|
6.8
|
4.75
|
2.05
|
11.55
| |||||
Michael Crabtree SF
|
6.8
|
4.79
|
2.01
|
11.59
| |||||
Torrey Smith BAL
|
8.1
|
5.55
|
2.55
|
13.65
| |||||
Mike Evans TB
|
11.8
|
7.99
|
3.81
|
19.79
| |||||
Golden Tate DET
|
14.3
|
8.36
|
5.94
|
22.66
| |||||
Julian Edelman NE
|
8.8
|
6.08
|
2.72
|
14.88
| |||||
Demaryius Thomas DEN
|
18
|
11.76
|
6.24
|
29.76
| |||||
Jordy Nelson GB
|
17.2
|
10.74
|
6.46
|
27.94
| |||||
Markus Wheaton PIT
|
5.8
|
3.69
|
2.11
|
9.49
| |||||
James Jones OAK
|
7.3
|
5.01
|
2.29
|
12.31
| |||||
Reggie Wayne IND
|
8.2
|
5.99
|
2.21
|
14.19
| |||||
Brandin Cooks NO
|
9
|
6.43
|
2.57
|
15.43
| |||||
Brandon Marshall CHI
|
10
|
7.31
|
2.69
|
17.31
| |||||
T.Y. Hilton IND
|
14.5
|
9.57
|
4.93
|
24.07
| |||||
DeSean Jackson WAS
|
13.3
|
9.24
|
4.06
|
22.54
| |||||
Jeremy Maclin PHI
|
16.2
|
11.91
|
4.29
|
28.11
| |||||
Taylor Gabriel CLE
|
5.6
|
4.23
|
1.37
|
9.83
| |||||
Kendall Wright TEN
|
7.4
|
5.98
|
1.42
|
13.38
| |||||
Kenny Britt STL
|
5
|
3.72
|
1.28
|
8.72
| |||||
Keenan Allen SD
|
6.3
|
4.85
|
1.45
|
11.15
| |||||
Brandon LaFell NE
|
9.7
|
8.08
|
1.62
|
17.78
| |||||
Steve Smith BAL
|
10.7
|
9.08
|
1.62
|
19.78
| |||||
Sammy Watkins BUF
|
11.4
|
9.97
|
1.43
|
21.37
| |||||
Calvin Johnson DET
|
12
|
11.54
|
0.46
|
23.54
| |||||
Larry Fitzgerald ARI
|
8.9
|
8.02
|
0.88
|
16.92
| |||||
Justin Hunter TEN
|
5.4
|
4.66
|
0.74
|
10.06
| |||||
Louis Murphy TB
|
6
|
4.97
|
1.03
|
10.97
| |||||
John Brown ARI
|
8.1
|
7.00
|
1.10
|
15.10
| |||||
Michael Floyd ARI
|
6.5
|
5.69
|
0.81
|
12.19
| |||||
Pierre Garcon WAS
|
7.4
|
6.84
|
0.56
|
14.24
| |||||
Eddie Royal SD
|
7.8
|
7.84
|
-0.04
|
15.64
| |||||
Kenny Stills NO
|
6.1
|
5.32
|
0.78
|
11.42
| |||||
Jordan Matthews PHI
|
8.7
|
8.54
|
0.16
|
17.24
| |||||
Robert Woods BUF
|
5.2
|
5.15
|
0.05
|
10.35
| |||||
Doug Baldwin SEA
|
5.9
|
5.61
|
0.29
|
11.51
| |||||
Allen Hurns JAC
|
8.3
|
9.49
|
-1.19
|
17.79
| |||||
Cordarrelle Patterson MIN
|
6.4
|
6.14
|
0.26
|
12.54
| |||||
Devin Hester ATL
|
5.2
|
5.91
|
-0.71
|
11.11
| |||||
Andre Holmes OAK
|
7.4
|
8.34
|
-0.94
|
15.74
| |||||
TE:
Player
|
Avg
|
StdDev
|
Floor
|
Ceiling
| |||||
Dwayne Allen IND
|
8.8
|
2.27
|
6.53
|
11.07
| |||||
Jason Witten DAL
|
6.1
|
3.27
|
2.83
|
9.37
| |||||
Kyle Rudolph MIN
|
5.2
|
2.00
|
3.20
|
7.20
| |||||
Travis Kelce KC
|
7.5
|
4.18
|
3.32
|
11.68
| |||||
Jared Cook STL
|
5.4
|
3.88
|
1.52
|
9.28
| |||||
Coby Fleener IND
|
5.9
|
4.33
|
1.57
|
10.23
| |||||
Owen Daniels BAL
|
5.9
|
4.37
|
1.53
|
10.27
| |||||
Martellus Bennett CHI
|
10.1
|
5.37
|
4.73
|
15.47
| |||||
Greg Olsen CAR
|
10.2
|
5.73
|
4.47
|
15.93
| |||||
Lance Kendricks STL
|
4.5
|
3.03
|
1.47
|
7.53
| |||||
Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB
|
4.3
|
2.90
|
1.40
|
7.20
| |||||
Jimmy Graham NO
|
11.4
|
7.12
|
4.28
|
18.52
| |||||
Chase Ford MIN
|
4.5
|
3.85
|
0.65
|
8.35
| |||||
Julius Thomas DEN
|
13
|
8.74
|
4.26
|
21.74
| |||||
Rob Gronkowski NE
|
13.7
|
9.29
|
4.41
|
22.99
| |||||
Charles Clay MIA
|
4.8
|
4.07
|
0.73
|
8.87
| |||||
Zach Ertz PHI
|
5.3
|
4.40
|
0.90
|
9.70
| |||||
Antonio Gates SD
|
10.9
|
8.27
|
2.63
|
19.17
| |||||
Delanie Walker TEN
|
8.7
|
6.28
|
2.42
|
14.98
| |||||
Jordan Reed WAS
|
4.1
|
3.07
|
1.03
|
7.17
| |||||
Jace Amaro NYJ
|
4.1
|
3.62
|
0.48
|
7.72
| |||||
Scott Chandler BUF
|
4.4
|
3.90
|
0.50
|
8.30
| |||||
Niles Paul WAS
|
5.2
|
4.46
|
0.74
|
9.66
| |||||
Larry Donnell NYG
|
6.9
|
6.83
|
0.07
|
13.73
| |||||
Heath Miller PIT
|
5.6
|
6.14
|
-0.54
|
11.74
| |||||
Jordan Cameron CLE
|
5.7
|
6.20
|
-0.50
|
11.90
| |||||
Clay Harbor JAC
|
4.7
|
4.56
|
0.14
|
9.26
| |||||
Mychal Rivera OAK
|
5
|
5.48
|
-0.48
|
10.48
| |||||
Vernon Davis SF
|
4.1
|
5.12
|
-1.02
|
9.22
| |||||
Timothy Wright NE
|
4
|
5.25
|
-1.25
|
9.25
| |||||
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