Hello and Welcome to Market Fantasy!
Below are the Market Fantasy consistency rankings. When I first started doing this last year, I rushed to get them out on Tuesday night to combine them with a free agent pickup column. I’ve decided to stop rushing out the free agent column. Partly because there are a billion sites all telling you to pick up the same guys, so you don’t need me to also tell you to pick up an injured RBs backup. Hopefully, you’ve figured that out on your own. I’m not trying for content just for content’s sake. Also, if there are any free agent picks you find in here, you don’t have to waste a waiver claim on them Tuesday night when the majority of claims are processed. These guys you can pick up Wednesday as free agents and save those high claims for the in demand players everyone else is telling you about that you can probably figure out on your own. I’ll just make some quick observations about each position. Good?
Before we get started, let me give you the quick explanation of these rankings. They are based on a combination of a player’s average weekly scoring and the standard deviation of those scores. The idea is to find the players who not only average the highest points on a per week basis, but also deviate the least from that average. These are not meant to be rest of season or even weekly ranks, just an idea of how a player has performed thus far in the season. Mark Sanchez tops Peyton Manning in these rankings, but don’t trade Manning for Sanchez, ok?
Like my post earlier on ceilings and floors, these ranks are meant to give you an idea of what to expect from a player. If a player has a high average score and a high standard deviation, they are not very consistent and their point average has been influenced by a huge game and the rest pedestrian games. The average score and standard deviations have been provided for each player, so use them to make your own decisions about your team and identify players to either unload or trade for.
I’ve also added the expected floors and ceilings. Remember from my Six Sigma drafting piece, following the standard distribution, a player will achieve over one standard deviation below their average 84% of the time, and will fall under one standard deviation above their average 84% of the time. These will change some on a weekly basis as the average and standard deviations move week to week, but as of now, the numbers below are what we can expect from a certain player.
As always, love to hear comments. Thanks for reading!
Inane Comments:
QB:
Ryan Tannehill continues his rise up the consistency ranks as he’s offered only one dud since week 3. He doesn’t have quite the ceiling as some other QBs, but I would absolutely trust him as the lead in a committee the rest of the way. That low-ish standard deviation is what I like to see….. I thought Russell Wilson would really struggle last week at KC, and he did throwing the ball, but he added 71 rushing yards, giving him a very good week points wise. I was hesitant to buy in on his rushing this year, but he easily leads all QBs with 74 attempts for 571 yards and 4 TDs. It’s hard to think it won’t continue after seeing it for a few weeks now. That rushing ability gives him a high floor with a high ceiling every week. …. Last year, I was all aboard Alex Smith as a bye/injury replacement due to his overlooked rushing contributions. This year things have changed, and Smith has only 186 rushing yards. This basically kneecaps his value as he only has 11 TD passes on the year….. I expect both Jay Cutler and Josh McCown to be top 10 guys this week as both teams will probably have no answer for each team’s big receivers.
RB:
As soon as the Patriots’ game ended, pundits were lining up to tell you to be careful expecting start worthy numbers from Jonas Gray every week. And while he won’t be an RB 1, I have no problem using him as an RB2/Flex type the rest of the way. He should have the best chance to score on the ground every week and should get around 15 carries. The way this year is going, that’s an RB2…. The thinking seems to be that adding Ben Tate is bad news for Jerrick McKinnon. I’m not so sure that the move wasn’t in response to Matt Asiata’s concussion. Either way, as long as McKinnon is healthy, he’s the Vikings back to play this week by a longshot…. A lot was made of Rashad Jennings returning this week, and he responded with 6.7 points. I’m not as sold on him as most as he has single digit points in 4 of the 6 games he’s played this year…. I know Fred Jackson has had a lot of time to heal after missing last week’s game, but I still don’t think his return spells the end for Bryce Brown, especially in PPR. Brown can still have at least Flex value with a low end RB2 ceiling the rest of the way. He’s not just going to go away in the passing game. Jackson won’t handle a full load and Dixon is uninspiring.
WR:
Finally healthy, Malcolm Floyd is showing he has low end WR2 value this year. A lot of it is thanks to the Keenan Allen nosedive, but at this stage in the game, does anyone expect the roles to all of a sudden change without an injury? My biggest worry would be Rivers’ health, but Floyd should be fine from here on out as a low end WR2 and a layup WR3….. Unfortunately, the fun times have ended for Mohammed Sanu with AJ Green back to full strength. Hope you enjoyed it while it lasted…. Rueben Randle finally managed to catch a couple passes, but Odell Beckham is easily the Giants WR I want going forward and is a top 25 WR right now….. While everyone is rushing out to grab Kenny Stills in light of the Brandin Cooks injury, I wouldn’t be surprised if the guy to benefit the most is Marques Colston. Stills is still the boom or bust big play threat and don’t forget Colston’s resurgence the second half of last year…. Michael Floyd had a nice game, but his only catches were TDs. Don’t count on that every week. It looks like John Brown is the guy to own with Fitzgerald hurting in Arizona. I’d be leery of starting either this week in Seattle, however…. I honestly can’t believe what has happened to Pierre Garcon this year. He’s probably a drop now if you haven’t already. He’s simply not getting targets.
TE:
I hate TEs…… Larry Donnell re-emerged in New York, but I’m not going to all of a sudden call him trustworthy. Same thing with Heath Miller….. I like Charles Clay to finish strong, but who knows…. Niles Paul will probably with Jordan Reed hurt again. So he’s a warm body to get…. Let’s also please stop talking about Travis Kelce. He isn’t going to break out any time soon. Although his 1.8 points per game the last two is probably good for a top 6 TE game…. I’m going to have to stop writing about TEs last because it puts me in such a bad mood and makes me start to hate fantasy football.
QB:
Player
|
Avg
|
StdDev
|
Floor
|
Ceiling
| |||||
Drew Brees NO
|
23.8
|
4.77
|
19.03
|
28.57
| |||||
Andrew Luck IND
|
33.5
|
6.73
|
26.77
|
40.23
| |||||
Mark Sanchez PHI
|
21.9
|
4.84
|
17.06
|
26.74
| |||||
Peyton Manning DEN
|
31.8
|
7.29
|
24.51
|
39.09
| |||||
Ryan Tannehill MIA
|
20.6
|
6.49
|
14.11
|
27.09
| |||||
Tony Romo DAL
|
21.2
|
6.75
|
14.45
|
27.95
| |||||
Jay Cutler CHI
|
23.3
|
7.56
|
15.74
|
30.86
| |||||
Brian Hoyer CLE
|
16.2
|
6.39
|
9.81
|
22.59
| |||||
Colin Kaepernick SF
|
19.6
|
7.18
|
12.42
|
26.78
| |||||
Matt Ryan ATL
|
21.3
|
8.71
|
12.59
|
30.01
| |||||
Kyle Orton BUF
|
19.9
|
7.76
|
12.14
|
27.66
| |||||
Blake Bortles JAC
|
15
|
5.91
|
9.09
|
20.91
| |||||
Aaron Rodgers GB
|
30.9
|
11.66
|
19.24
|
42.56
| |||||
Russell Wilson SEA
|
24.4
|
11.38
|
13.02
|
35.78
| |||||
Robert Griffin III WAS
|
10.9
|
4.96
|
5.94
|
15.86
| |||||
Alex Smith KC
|
16
|
6.85
|
9.15
|
22.85
| |||||
Philip Rivers SD
|
22.3
|
11.04
|
11.26
|
33.34
| |||||
Tom Brady NE
|
24.5
|
13.35
|
11.15
|
37.85
| |||||
Ben Roethlisberger PIT
|
25.1
|
16.60
|
8.50
|
41.70
| |||||
Cam Newton CAR
|
18.7
|
8.87
|
9.83
|
27.57
| |||||
Teddy Bridgewater MIN
|
13.1
|
7.26
|
5.84
|
20.36
| |||||
Andy Dalton CIN
|
17.1
|
8.93
|
8.17
|
26.03
| |||||
Josh McCown TB
|
17.5
|
9.28
|
8.22
|
26.78
| |||||
Matthew Stafford DET
|
19
|
9.91
|
9.09
|
28.91
| |||||
Eli Manning NYG
|
19.8
|
11.09
|
8.71
|
30.89
| |||||
Joe Flacco BAL
|
20.3
|
11.64
|
8.66
|
31.94
| |||||
Derek Carr OAK
|
15
|
8.21
|
6.79
|
23.21
| |||||
Drew Stanton ARI
|
13.5
|
8.13
|
5.37
|
21.63
| |||||
Austin Davis STL
|
15.3
|
9.90
|
5.40
|
25.20
| |||||
Zach Mettenberger TEN
|
12.6
|
8.84
|
3.76
|
21.44
| |||||
RB:
Player
|
Avg
|
StdDev
|
Floor
|
Ceiling
| |||||
DeMarco Murray DAL
|
21.2
|
5.48
|
15.72
|
26.68
| |||||
Ryan Mathews SD
|
8.4
|
2.65
|
5.75
|
11.05
| |||||
Lamar Miller MIA
|
11
|
4.60
|
6.40
|
15.60
| |||||
Joique Bell DET
|
9
|
3.96
|
5.04
|
12.96
| |||||
Justin Forsett BAL
|
13
|
5.41
|
7.59
|
18.41
| |||||
Tre Mason STL
|
8.7
|
4.33
|
4.37
|
13.03
| |||||
Jonathan Stewart CAR
|
7.1
|
3.25
|
3.85
|
10.35
| |||||
Fred Jackson BUF
|
8.6
|
4.40
|
4.20
|
13.00
| |||||
LeSean McCoy PHI
|
10
|
5.34
|
4.66
|
15.34
| |||||
Roy Helu WAS
|
6.5
|
2.63
|
3.87
|
9.13
| |||||
Darren McFadden OAK
|
6.8
|
3.41
|
3.39
|
10.21
| |||||
Trent Richardson IND
|
7.7
|
4.07
|
3.63
|
11.77
| |||||
Alfred Morris WAS
|
11.7
|
6.34
|
5.36
|
18.04
| |||||
Andre Ellington ARI
|
12.7
|
6.84
|
5.86
|
19.54
| |||||
Steven Jackson ATL
|
7.9
|
4.50
|
3.40
|
12.40
| |||||
Mark Ingram NO
|
16.9
|
8.17
|
8.73
|
25.07
| |||||
Matt Forte CHI
|
17.9
|
8.19
|
9.71
|
26.09
| |||||
Bishop Sankey TEN
|
6
|
3.35
|
2.65
|
9.35
| |||||
Giovani Bernard CIN
|
13.7
|
7.76
|
5.94
|
21.46
| |||||
Benny Cunningham STL
|
6.5
|
3.58
|
2.92
|
10.08
| |||||
Le'Veon Bell PIT
|
16.4
|
8.31
|
8.09
|
24.71
| |||||
Chris Ivory NYJ
|
10.1
|
6.60
|
3.50
|
16.70
| |||||
Arian Foster HOU
|
22.9
|
10.58
|
12.32
|
33.48
| |||||
Bryce Brown BUF
|
5.5
|
2.88
|
2.62
|
8.38
| |||||
Shane Vereen NE
|
8.7
|
6.24
|
2.46
|
14.94
| |||||
Khiry Robinson NO
|
7.3
|
5.27
|
2.03
|
12.57
| |||||
Rashad Jennings NYG
|
12.1
|
8.08
|
4.02
|
20.18
| |||||
Marshawn Lynch SEA
|
18.7
|
11.27
|
7.43
|
29.97
| |||||
Isaiah Crowell CLE
|
6.6
|
4.77
|
1.83
|
11.37
| |||||
Darren Sproles PHI
|
10.3
|
7.60
|
2.70
|
17.90
| |||||
Ronnie Hillman DEN
|
11.6
|
7.79
|
3.81
|
19.39
| |||||
Eddie Lacy GB
|
13.3
|
8.61
|
4.69
|
21.91
| |||||
Jamaal Charles KC
|
16.1
|
10.07
|
6.03
|
26.17
| |||||
Reggie Bush DET
|
6
|
4.30
|
1.70
|
10.30
| |||||
Frank Gore SF
|
9.7
|
7.25
|
2.45
|
16.95
| |||||
Zac Stacy STL
|
5.1
|
3.45
|
1.65
|
8.55
| |||||
Doug Martin TB
|
5.6
|
3.59
|
2.01
|
9.19
| |||||
Bobby Rainey TB
|
7.4
|
5.44
|
1.96
|
12.84
| |||||
Terrance West CLE
|
8
|
5.76
|
2.24
|
13.76
| |||||
Ben Tate CLE
|
8.4
|
5.99
|
2.41
|
14.39
| |||||
Andre Williams NYG
|
6.4
|
4.87
|
1.53
|
11.27
| |||||
Jerick McKinnon MIN
|
6.7
|
5.42
|
1.28
|
12.12
| |||||
Jonas Gray NE
|
16.1
|
20.42
|
-4.32
|
36.52
| |||||
Pierre Thomas NO
|
8.6
|
7.30
|
1.30
|
15.90
| |||||
Chris Johnson NYJ
|
5.8
|
4.90
|
0.90
|
10.70
| |||||
Jeremy Hill CIN
|
10.9
|
9.50
|
1.40
|
20.40
| |||||
Antone Smith ATL
|
6.5
|
5.83
|
0.67
|
12.33
| |||||
Branden Oliver SD
|
10.2
|
10.47
|
-0.27
|
20.67
| |||||
Denard Robinson JAC
|
8.3
|
7.71
|
0.59
|
16.01
| |||||
Knile Davis KC
|
8.7
|
8.66
|
0.04
|
17.36
| |||||
Alfred Blue HOU
|
5.6
|
5.77
|
-0.17
|
11.37
| |||||
Theo Riddick DET
|
4.9
|
5.65
|
-0.75
|
10.55
| |||||
Lorenzo Taliaferro BAL
|
5.7
|
6.67
|
-0.97
|
12.37
| |||||
C.J. Anderson DEN
|
5.1
|
7.32
|
-2.22
|
12.42
| |||||
WR:
Player
|
Avg
|
StdDev
|
Floor
|
Ceiling
| |||||
Mike Wallace MIA
|
9.1
|
3.02
|
6.08
|
12.12
| |||||
Malcom Floyd SD
|
8.4
|
4.09
|
4.31
|
12.49
| |||||
Odell Beckham NYG
|
12.5
|
5.74
|
6.76
|
18.24
| |||||
DeAndre Hopkins HOU
|
10.7
|
5.08
|
5.62
|
15.78
| |||||
Anquan Boldin SF
|
8.7
|
4.73
|
3.97
|
13.43
| |||||
Randall Cobb GB
|
15.1
|
6.60
|
8.50
|
21.70
| |||||
Eric Decker NYJ
|
7.7
|
3.98
|
3.72
|
11.68
| |||||
Andrew Hawkins CLE
|
8.4
|
4.86
|
3.54
|
13.26
| |||||
Antonio Brown PIT
|
17.2
|
7.79
|
9.41
|
24.99
| |||||
Roddy White ATL
|
10
|
5.38
|
4.62
|
15.38
| |||||
Emmanuel Sanders DEN
|
16
|
7.72
|
8.28
|
23.72
| |||||
Alshon Jeffery CHI
|
11.2
|
6.10
|
5.10
|
17.30
| |||||
Kelvin Benjamin CAR
|
11.7
|
6.51
|
5.19
|
18.21
| |||||
Rueben Randle NYG
|
6.7
|
3.87
|
2.83
|
10.57
| |||||
Andre Johnson HOU
|
6.5
|
3.37
|
3.13
|
9.87
| |||||
Vincent Jackson TB
|
7.1
|
4.14
|
2.96
|
11.24
| |||||
Mohamed Sanu CIN
|
11.2
|
6.53
|
4.67
|
17.73
| |||||
Marques Colston NO
|
6.4
|
3.52
|
2.88
|
9.92
| |||||
A.J. Green CIN
|
11.8
|
6.91
|
4.89
|
18.71
| |||||
Martavis Bryant PIT
|
14.3
|
7.94
|
6.36
|
22.24
| |||||
Dwayne Bowe KC
|
5.7
|
2.43
|
3.27
|
8.13
| |||||
Dez Bryant DAL
|
14
|
7.95
|
6.05
|
21.95
| |||||
Julian Edelman NE
|
8.7
|
5.77
|
2.93
|
14.47
| |||||
Miles Austin CLE
|
5.4
|
2.91
|
2.49
|
8.31
| |||||
Terrance Williams DAL
|
7.9
|
5.21
|
2.69
|
13.11
| |||||
Reggie Wayne IND
|
8.3
|
5.66
|
2.64
|
13.96
| |||||
Jordy Nelson GB
|
17.5
|
10.22
|
7.28
|
27.72
| |||||
Percy Harvin NYJ
|
6.7
|
4.32
|
2.38
|
11.02
| |||||
Torrey Smith BAL
|
8.1
|
5.55
|
2.55
|
13.65
| |||||
Julio Jones ATL
|
12.1
|
7.88
|
4.22
|
19.98
| |||||
Golden Tate DET
|
13.3
|
8.41
|
4.89
|
21.71
| |||||
Demaryius Thomas DEN
|
17.6
|
11.25
|
6.35
|
28.85
| |||||
Greg Jennings MIN
|
5.8
|
3.66
|
2.14
|
9.46
| |||||
Cecil Shorts JAC
|
6.8
|
4.75
|
2.05
|
11.55
| |||||
James Jones OAK
|
6.9
|
4.88
|
2.02
|
11.78
| |||||
Michael Crabtree SF
|
7.5
|
5.10
|
2.40
|
12.60
| |||||
Brandon Marshall CHI
|
11.1
|
7.69
|
3.41
|
18.79
| |||||
Steve Johnson SF
|
6.2
|
4.13
|
2.07
|
10.33
| |||||
Jeremy Maclin PHI
|
16.1
|
11.30
|
4.80
|
27.40
| |||||
DeSean Jackson WAS
|
12.4
|
9.23
|
3.17
|
21.63
| |||||
Taylor Gabriel CLE
|
6
|
4.15
|
1.85
|
10.15
| |||||
Keenan Allen SD
|
6.3
|
4.60
|
1.70
|
10.90
| |||||
T.Y. Hilton IND
|
13.3
|
9.77
|
3.53
|
23.07
| |||||
Markus Wheaton PIT
|
5.3
|
3.92
|
1.38
|
9.22
| |||||
Mike Evans TB
|
14.9
|
11.60
|
3.30
|
26.50
| |||||
Jarvis Landry MIA
|
5.2
|
3.91
|
1.29
|
9.11
| |||||
Kendall Wright TEN
|
7.4
|
5.67
|
1.73
|
13.07
| |||||
Brandon LaFell NE
|
9.4
|
7.84
|
1.56
|
17.24
| |||||
Kenny Stills NO
|
6.5
|
5.11
|
1.39
|
11.61
| |||||
Michael Floyd ARI
|
7.6
|
6.24
|
1.36
|
13.84
| |||||
John Brown ARI
|
8
|
6.65
|
1.35
|
14.65
| |||||
Steve Smith BAL
|
10.7
|
9.08
|
1.62
|
19.78
| |||||
Justin Hunter TEN
|
5.4
|
4.42
|
0.98
|
9.82
| |||||
Larry Fitzgerald ARI
|
8.4
|
7.80
|
0.60
|
16.20
| |||||
Jordan Matthews PHI
|
9.8
|
8.75
|
1.05
|
18.55
| |||||
Calvin Johnson DET
|
11.1
|
10.90
|
0.20
|
22.00
| |||||
Sammy Watkins BUF
|
10.6
|
9.75
|
0.85
|
20.35
| |||||
Doug Baldwin SEA
|
6.3
|
5.50
|
0.80
|
11.80
| |||||
Eddie Royal SD
|
7.5
|
7.53
|
-0.03
|
15.03
| |||||
Louis Murphy TB
|
5.2
|
4.97
|
0.23
|
10.17
| |||||
Kenny Britt STL
|
6.6
|
6.19
|
0.41
|
12.79
| |||||
Pierre Garcon WAS
|
6.7
|
6.80
|
-0.10
|
13.50
| |||||
Cordarrelle Patterson MIN
|
6
|
5.93
|
0.07
|
11.93
| |||||
Allen Hurns JAC
|
8.3
|
9.49
|
-1.19
|
17.79
| |||||
Andre Holmes OAK
|
6.9
|
8.21
|
-1.31
|
15.11
| |||||
TE:
Player
|
Avg
|
StdDev
|
Floor
|
Ceiling
| |||||
Dwayne Allen IND
|
7.9
|
2.27
|
5.63
|
10.17
| |||||
Jason Witten DAL
|
6.1
|
3.27
|
2.83
|
9.37
| |||||
Travis Kelce KC
|
7
|
4.34
|
2.66
|
11.34
| |||||
Martellus Bennett CHI
|
9.4
|
5.54
|
3.86
|
14.94
| |||||
Greg Olsen CAR
|
9.8
|
5.59
|
4.21
|
15.39
| |||||
Jared Cook STL
|
5.1
|
3.83
|
1.27
|
8.93
| |||||
Zach Ertz PHI
|
5.3
|
4.17
|
1.13
|
9.47
| |||||
Owen Daniels BAL
|
5.9
|
4.37
|
1.53
|
10.27
| |||||
Lance Kendricks STL
|
4.1
|
3.12
|
0.98
|
7.22
| |||||
Coby Fleener IND
|
7.1
|
5.36
|
1.74
|
12.46
| |||||
Jimmy Graham NO
|
10.5
|
7.40
|
3.10
|
17.90
| |||||
Rob Gronkowski NE
|
13.6
|
8.81
|
4.79
|
22.41
| |||||
Delanie Walker TEN
|
8.7
|
6.28
|
2.42
|
14.98
| |||||
Antonio Gates SD
|
10.2
|
8.18
|
2.02
|
18.38
| |||||
Julius Thomas DEN
|
11.8
|
9.13
|
2.67
|
20.93
| |||||
Jermaine Gresham CIN
|
4.1
|
3.51
|
0.59
|
7.61
| |||||
Charles Clay MIA
|
4.7
|
3.90
|
0.80
|
8.60
| |||||
Niles Paul WAS
|
4.9
|
4.36
|
0.54
|
9.26
| |||||
Jace Amaro NYJ
|
4.1
|
3.62
|
0.48
|
7.72
| |||||
Larry Donnell NYG
|
7.4
|
6.54
|
0.86
|
13.94
| |||||
Clay Harbor JAC
|
4.7
|
4.56
|
0.14
|
9.26
| |||||
Mychal Rivera OAK
|
4.9
|
5.19
|
-0.29
|
10.09
| |||||
Heath Miller PIT
|
5.7
|
5.87
|
-0.17
|
11.57
| |||||
Jordan Cameron CLE
|
5.7
|
6.20
|
-0.50
|
11.90
| |||||
Timothy Wright NE
|
4.2
|
4.81
|
-0.61
|
9.01
| |||||
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