Hello and Welcome to Market Fantasy!
So I hit thirty posts to this blog yesterday, a milestone
that means nothing to anyone except me. And it’s really only a milestone to me
because I decided to make it one. It’s like turning thirty in real life, I
decided to make it meaningful because, well, why not? I’ve managed to not die
for another year that, coincidentally, is divisible by ten. Soooo…. milestone! So
I spent my milestone with my (future) wife and a couple friends at one of my
favorite Wrigleyville bars. Looking back, it was about as innocuous as a
milestone celebration could get. Just another person in one of the numerous
bars in Wrigleyville. As much as I love the Cubs, Wrigleyville is far from my
favorite neighborhood to hang out. I’d way rather be in North Center or Lincoln
Square. Heck, even Andersonville. (Can you tell I’m a Northsider?) So why was I
there? Why not visit somewhere I truly enjoy? Why not patronize one of the
hundreds of truly special Chicago spots? I guess I was going through the
motions at the point, feeling like I had to celebrate my birthday. I’ve never
been one to get too excited about my birthday, and I think it has to do with
circumstance. You see, my birthday is the day before St. Patrick’s Day. A day
everyone basically looks past to the next day when everyone is out, dressed in
green and having a blast. This has lead to me to having a tenuous relationship
with St. Patrick’s day at best. I was generally hung over, not feeling like
going out while everyone else was just getting warmed up.
Now, I’m not looking for sympathy by any means. A low key
celebration with my wife and some close friends having a beer or twelve and
shooting the breeze is perfect with me. That’s not really the point here,
anyway. The point is that the past three years of my life have been way more
exciting than the first thirty. In the past three years, I’ve finished grad
school, gotten a great job, married my the love of my life,(I say that like it
will get me some points, but she doesn’t even read this. Maybe if I added a
fantasy basketball section), bought a condo, and recently adopted an adorable
Keeshond puppy. I’ve also finally started writing this blog that I thought up
five years ago. It’s now approaching 1,000 page views in three months and has
been viewed around the world (thanks fantasy fans in Indonesia and Russia!).
While that’s all well and good, I think I’m finally starting to figure out what
I want to do here. Like most things, I dove in without a real plan and figured
I’d figure it out as I went. The first thirty posts were great, but I was just
figuring things out. I think the next thirty will be better and the thirty
after that will be even better.
So to celebrate this not really milestone, I’ve decided to launch
one of the most ubiquitous features in fantasy writing and do a start/sit column. After
agonizing what to call it because literally every name for a start/sit column
is taken at this point, I’m going with “Go for it/Punt,” because that’s the
least terrible football euphemism I can think of at this point. This will also
be my least math-y (and least insufferable?) column, I’m largely leaving the
spreadsheet in it’s holster. So, without further adieu, I give you the
inaugural Go for it/Punt Column. The intent here is not to tell you to start
Adrian Peterson, but to highlight some guys sitting on your bench/waiver wire
who might be worth a look.
Read though, let me know your thoughts, and enjoy!
QB Go for it!
Alex Smith: Smith has been a pleasant surprise this
year. If you gave up on his hot start after a quiet week 5 and 6, you might
have missed that he’s posted solid games the last two weeks. This week, he gets
to face a pretty weak Bills defense. The Bills have allowed the fourth most
yards to opponents this year, and Smith should be able to post another solid
line. The Chiefs also look like they’re finally figuring out how to use Dexter
McCluster effectively in the last couple weeks. I like Smith to have a solid
game and be a great fill in for owners of Manning, Stafford or Kaepernick.
Jake Locker: I talked about Locker in my free agent
pick ups column yesterday, but he’s worth noting again here. After a poor
showing week one and missing time to injury, Locker has been remarkable
consistent this year. This week, he gets the Rams, who are slightly lower than
middle of the road as a defense when it comes to yards, but they also don’t
generate any turnovers. Locker is a dual threat with 127 rushing yards on 18
carries this year and is really coming into his own in his third year.
QB Punt!
Nick Foles: Nick Foles is no lock to start this week,
but he has declared himself ready to play coming off a concussion. I still
don’t like him against a surprisingly not-a-doormat Raiders defense. The
Raiders have allowed the 5th fewest yards to opponents this year,
and the Eagles look like they’ve checked out. Even with some big names out on
bye, I wouldn’t start Foles unless I was truly desperate.
Ben Roethlisberger: On paper, this matchup looks like
it might be a decent one for Big Ben as he’s facing a Patriots defense that is
in the bottom ten for total yards allowed. A lot of that is the fact that they
are giving up the second most rush yards this year to opponents. I think the
Steelers should be able to move the ball relatively effectively, but I think a
lot of that will be LeVeon Bell rushing it. Normally, this would be a high
scoring game, but with Brady playing so poorly, I think we’ll see a lot of ball
control making for a slow tempo game.
RB Go for it!
Danny Woodhead/Ryan Mathews: This is a great week to
play Woodhead and Mathew as strong RB2 options if you’re hurting for depth at
the position. The Redskins give up the eighth most yards to opposing offenses
and the sixth most yards to opposing rushers. This is defense that can be
exploited, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Chargers lean heavily on the
ground game to keep the ball out of RGIII’s hands.
James Starks: This one absolutely kills me as a Bears
fan, but I like Starks as a strong flex play this week or even RB2 if you’re
hurting (like me). The Bears defense is really banged up, and they’re playing
like it. Right before the bye, the Bears made RB1s out of both Alfred Morris
and Roy Helu. This game also has the potential to be a blowout, leaving Starks
to rack up some garbage time points. The Packers want to get Starks more
involved to limit the load on Lacy, and Starks looked great doing that last
week.
Mike Tolbert: DeAngelo Williams got his first TD last
week, but Tolbert also scored, raising his total to five on the year. Tolbert
is averaging 8.7 touches per game, and is clearly the top option at the goal
line. You’re banking on a touchdown, but I’d say that it’s a good bet against a
suspect Atlanta defense.
Big Names Struggling who I Think Will Have a Good Week:
Chris Johnson, Ray Rice. I also like Le’Veon Bell to have a great game.
RB Punt!
Steven Jackson: With how ugly the running back
position has been this year, it’s hard not to start someone, anyone, this week
if they have a reasonable shot at double digit touches. I still don’t like
Jackson to play well this week against a very tough Carolina Defense. Jackson
came back last week and posted 13 total yards. Ugly. The Panthers have given up
only 555 rushing yards on the year, and this game could turn into a shootout.
If at all possible, look elsewhere.
Darren Sproles/Pierre Thomas: I wouldn’t give up on
Sproles yet after last week’s doughnut, but it will be hard to start any
Saints’ running back this week against the third toughest defense on RBs. I can
see flexing Sproles if you’re desperate, and you probably are, due to his
involvement in the passing game, but I can’t recommend Thomas at all.
WR Go for it!
Alshon Jeffery: Don’t worry about the Josh McCown
factor this week. Jeffery actually had over 100 yards with McCown in week 7
after Cutler went down and they’ve had two weeks to prepare. I like Jeffery as
a solid WR2 this week in a game that should have the Bears throwing early and
often. I realize Jeffery has pushed his way into most lineups at this point,
but I just wanted to highlight that you shouldn’t be afraid of the QB
situation.
Kendall Wright: Most of what I said about Locker applies here to his
favorite target. The second year wideout has seen 58 targets this year,
converting 40 of them for 433 yards. He has been a very consistent producer on
the year and should be able to exploit a nice matchup with St. Louis.
Others to consider: Keenan Allen, Jarret Boykin, Marlon
Brown
WR Punt!
Golden Tate: I’d be leery of Tate’s breakout game last week. 90+ yards and
two touchdowns were nice to see (and completely serendipitous for me), but
remember 80 of that came on 1 play against a soft defense. With news that
Sidney Rice is out, Tate should draw Revis this week. He also has to deal with
the probably return of Percy Harvin. I expect the Seahawks to feed Marshawn
Lynch early and often in this game, leaving tate with WR3 numbers at best.
Steve Johnson: Johnson had a nice game last week,
catching a touchdown, but he is still hurt, and has to face a tenacious KC
defense this week. KC gets after the quarterback, which should hamper the
Buffalo deep passing game. I would look elsewhere in a deep WR pool if I could
afford it this week.
Others who might not produce: Antonio Brown, DeSean Jackson,
Torrey Smith
TE Go for it!
Greg Olsen: Currently sitting at 12th for
the year at the TE position, Greg Olsen is actually 9th in
receptions with 30 (on 42 targets) and 10th in yards with 360. He scored
a touchdown last week and gets to match up against a very generous Falcon’s
passing defense. Olsen is averaging 6.9 points per game on the year and should
be a good bye week fill in for Julius Thomas or Vernon Davis owners.
Others to consider: Delanie Walker, Heath Miller
TE Punt!
Jared Cook: This is just to point out that if you’re
still rolling with Cook, you need to stop. Immediately. He’s not good. I would
support dropping him and picking up literally anyone else.
DST Go for it!
Saints: If you’re not on board with the Saints yet,
you should hop aboard the train this week. They’ve allowed the seventh fewest
yards and third fewest points to date. And now they get to face a Jets team
that was absolutely ruined by the Bengals last week.
DST Punt!
Chicago Bears: Conversely, if you haven’t hopped off
the Bears’ DST bandwagon, you need to do so. Everyone is hurt, and the one who
aren’t, are not playing very well. At Green Bay and a nationally televised game
has all the makings of an embarrassment.
That’s all for now. Thanks for reading everyone!
