Hello and welcome to Market Fantasy!
In the preseason I took a look at how players performed by
comparing their first halves to their second halves to identify some potential
breakout players for this year. That article can be found here. What I have here is
a similar comparison of players’ performance so far this year. I took the
average score so far this year and compared the players’ average score for
weeks 1-3 against their average score for weeks 4-6. The next column is the
percentage increase (decrease) between those two scores. The last column is a
comparison of the weeks 4 – 6 scores against the YTD average score. There are
two tables for each position, one for risers and one for fallers. To be
included in this study, I only took a look at players with a more than 20%
change either way between weeks 1-3 and 4-6. I included a few more QBs and TEs
to flesh the lists out a little. Use these charts to determine good targets for
sell highs and buy lows. If a player is falling, but still has decent YTD
numbers (hello Eddie Royal!) try to dangle him out there and see what you can
get. Conversely, a player on the rise might still have left a bitter taste in
their owner’s mouth. Try making a low ball offer on the guise that a guy is
just lucky the last couple games. Their owner might be looking to cash out.
Now, a couple of you out there might take a look at these
numbers and say, “Six weeks? That’s a pretty small sample size of scores to
judge someone on.” To which I would reply, “It’s a statistical population, not
a sample.” To which you would correctly reply, “Nerd!” There’s an important
difference, and I see the term “sample size” get thrown out a lot in the
fantasy sports community incorrectly.
All statistical analysis starts with a data set. There are
two kinds of data sets: a population and a sample. A population is the entire
data set, while a sample is a certain amount of data points from the
population. In this case, the week 1-3 and 4-6 sets would be samples of the
overall population of 6 weeks of player scores. This is important when
analyzing fantasy football data. For instance, we could look at what Justin
Blackmon has done the last two weeks and dismiss it as a small data set, but
it’s all we have to look at. This
makes the data a population when talking about his 2013 numbers. If we were to
take these two weeks and compare them to his career stats, then it would be a
sample of the data, with his career being the population. Another way to put it
would be to say “75% of the people who read this blog have skipped this nerdy nonsense
to get to the player analysis.” While that sounds like a lot, if there are only
four people who read this, then that amounts to three people. Four people is a
small number, yes, but still a population. The main way this difference comes
into play is the different methods for calculating standard deviation and
variance for samples vs. populations. For samples, the “n-1” method is used.
It’s not worth getting into, but if you’re having a hard time sleeping, you can
read this.
Anyway, thanks for reading the nerdy tangent. Even if you
didn’t, I still like you. Now, the risers and fallers. Scroll through, check
out the data and get those trade offers out there. In the words of the immortal
Mackelmore, “I-I-I’m hunting, looking for a come up.” Happy hunting!
|
Player
|
Avg
|
1-3 Avg
|
4-6 Avg
|
% Change
|
% Change Over YTD Average
|
|
Weeden, Brandon CLE
|
14
|
10.7
|
17.3
|
62%
|
24%
|
|
Romo, Tony DAL
|
25.9
|
21.03333
|
30.66667
|
46%
|
18%
|
|
Locker, Jake TEN
|
20.2
|
18.33333
|
25.7
|
40%
|
27%
|
|
Cutler, Jay CHI
|
23.1
|
19.8
|
26.36667
|
33%
|
14%
|
|
Flacco, Joe BAL
|
17.3
|
15.76667
|
18.76667
|
19%
|
8%
|
|
Ryan, Matt ATL
|
26.6
|
25.2
|
28.8
|
14%
|
8%
|
|
Player
|
Avg
|
1-3 Avg
|
4-6 Avg
|
% Change
|
% Change Over YTD Average
|
|
Smith, Geno NYJ
|
16
|
17.6
|
14.4
|
-18%
|
-10%
|
|
Bradford, Sam STL
|
22.6
|
25.1
|
20.16667
|
-20%
|
-11%
|
|
Luck, Andrew IND
|
20
|
22.43333
|
17.66667
|
-21%
|
-12%
|
|
Smith, Alex KC
|
18
|
20.7
|
15.33333
|
-26%
|
-15%
|
|
Manning, Eli NYG
|
17.2
|
20.5
|
13.96667
|
-32%
|
-19%
|
|
Rodgers, Aaron GB
|
27.1
|
32
|
19.75
|
-38%
|
-27%
|
|
Griffin III, Robert
WAS
|
20.8
|
24.73333
|
14.8
|
-40%
|
-29%
|
|
Schaub, Matt HOU
|
16.4
|
21.5
|
11.33333
|
-47%
|
-31%
|
|
Hoyer, Brian CLE
|
17.8
|
27.8
|
12.8
|
-54%
|
-28%
|
|
Vick, Michael PHI
|
23.4
|
30.3
|
13.05
|
-57%
|
-44%
|
|
Manuel, E.J. BUF
|
14.5
|
19.7
|
6.7
|
-66%
|
-54%
|
|
Player
|
Avg
|
1-3 Avg
|
4-6 Avg
|
% Change
|
% Change Over YTD Average
|
|
Helu, Roy WAS
|
5.5
|
1.766667
|
11.05
|
525%
|
101%
|
|
Ridley, Stevan NE
|
8.4
|
3.633333
|
15.45
|
325%
|
84%
|
|
Ogbonnaya, Chris
CLE
|
5.8
|
2.9
|
8.666667
|
199%
|
49%
|
|
Jacobs, Brandon NYG
|
7.1
|
3.3
|
9.7
|
194%
|
37%
|
|
Rodgers, Jacquizz
ATL
|
8.1
|
4.7
|
13.3
|
183%
|
64%
|
|
Woodhead, Danny SD
|
9.2
|
4.866667
|
13.46667
|
177%
|
46%
|
|
Tolbert, Mike CAR
|
6.8
|
4.366667
|
10.35
|
137%
|
52%
|
|
Lacy, Eddie GB
|
9.4
|
6.1
|
12.7
|
108%
|
35%
|
|
Gore, Frank SF
|
12.9
|
8.6
|
17.16667
|
100%
|
33%
|
|
Foster, Arian HOU
|
15.3
|
10.3
|
20.23333
|
96%
|
32%
|
|
Moreno, Knowshon
DEN
|
16.4
|
11.23333
|
21.5
|
91%
|
31%
|
|
Thomas, Pierre NO
|
8
|
5.8
|
10.3
|
78%
|
29%
|
|
Sproles, Darren NO
|
10.2
|
7.6
|
12.86667
|
69%
|
26%
|
|
Ellington, Andre
ARI
|
7.9
|
6.333333
|
9.533333
|
51%
|
21%
|
|
Hunter, Kendall SF
|
5.3
|
5.1
|
7.266667
|
42%
|
37%
|
|
Spiller, C.J. BUF
|
7.7
|
6.4
|
8.966667
|
40%
|
16%
|
|
Lynch, Marshawn SEA
|
17.2
|
14.53333
|
19.83333
|
36%
|
15%
|
|
Jones-Drew, Maurice
JAC
|
7.4
|
6.5
|
8.266667
|
27%
|
12%
|
RB Fallers:
|
Player
|
Avg
|
1-3 Avg
|
4-6 Avg
|
% Change
|
% Change Over YTD Average
|
|
Bernard, Gio CIN
|
11
|
12.46667
|
9.466667
|
-24%
|
-14%
|
|
Tate, Ben HOU
|
5.7
|
6.866667
|
4.433333
|
-35%
|
-22%
|
|
Mendenhall, Rashard
ARI
|
7.1
|
8.633333
|
5.533333
|
-36%
|
-22%
|
|
Murray, DeMarco DAL
|
13.7
|
17.06667
|
10.33333
|
-39%
|
-25%
|
|
Martin, Doug TB
|
10.8
|
12.9
|
7.6
|
-41%
|
-30%
|
|
Snelling, Jason ATL
|
8.5
|
10.26667
|
5.85
|
-43%
|
-31%
|
|
McCoy, LeSean PHI
|
19.8
|
25.46667
|
14.23333
|
-44%
|
-28%
|
|
Powell, Bilal NYJ
|
9.8
|
12.73333
|
6.833333
|
-46%
|
-30%
|
|
McFadden, Darren
OAK
|
10.8
|
14.26667
|
5.6
|
-61%
|
-48%
|
|
Bolden, Brandon NE
|
5.2
|
10
|
3.633333
|
-64%
|
-30%
|
|
Richardson, Daryl
STL
|
5.4
|
8.8
|
3.166667
|
-64%
|
-41%
|
|
Pierce, Bernard BAL
|
5.9
|
9.033333
|
2.866667
|
-68%
|
-51%
|
|
Bell, Joique DET
|
9.7
|
15.86667
|
3.533333
|
-78%
|
-64%
|
|
Player
|
Avg
|
1-3 Avg
|
4-6 Avg
|
% Change
|
% Change Over YTD Average
|
|
Jeffery, Alshon CHI
|
12.8
|
4.466667
|
21.13333
|
373%
|
65%
|
|
Allen, Keenan SD
|
10.3
|
3.4
|
16.06667
|
373%
|
56%
|
|
Williams, Terrance
DAL
|
8
|
3
|
14.03333
|
368%
|
75%
|
|
Jones, Jacoby BAL
|
6.3
|
2.4
|
10.2
|
325%
|
62%
|
|
Cotchery, Jerricho
PIT
|
8
|
6.833333
|
19.3
|
182%
|
141%
|
|
Cooper, Riley PHI
|
6
|
4.266667
|
11.75
|
175%
|
96%
|
|
Jennings, Greg MIN
|
8.1
|
5.333333
|
12.3
|
131%
|
52%
|
|
Jones, Marvin CIN
|
6.1
|
5.133333
|
10.6
|
106%
|
74%
|
|
Hilton, T.Y. IND
|
9.5
|
6.233333
|
12.8
|
105%
|
35%
|
|
Kerley, Jeremy NYJ
|
5.6
|
3.5
|
7.066667
|
102%
|
26%
|
|
Brown, Vincent SD
|
5.5
|
3.666667
|
7.3
|
99%
|
33%
|
|
Randle, Rueben NYG
|
9
|
6.166667
|
11.93333
|
94%
|
33%
|
|
Floyd, Michael ARI
|
6.8
|
5.1
|
8.4
|
65%
|
24%
|
|
Smith, Torrey BAL
|
11.8
|
8.966667
|
14.63333
|
63%
|
24%
|
|
Sanders, Emmanuel
PIT
|
7.2
|
5.8
|
9.35
|
61%
|
30%
|
|
Gibson, Brandon MIA
|
5.6
|
4.566667
|
7.25
|
59%
|
29%
|
|
Williams, Mike TB
|
7.1
|
6.2
|
9.8
|
58%
|
38%
|
|
Bryant, Dez DAL
|
14.3
|
11.7
|
16.93333
|
45%
|
18%
|
|
Jackson, Vincent TB
|
12.1
|
10.5
|
14.55
|
39%
|
20%
|
|
Wayne, Reggie IND
|
10.5
|
8.833333
|
12.1
|
37%
|
15%
|
|
LaFell, Brandon CAR
|
8.8
|
9.3
|
12.65
|
36%
|
44%
|
|
Thompkins, Kenbrell
NE
|
9.8
|
8.333333
|
11.26667
|
35%
|
15%
|
|
Bowe, Dwayne KC
|
5.8
|
5
|
6.633333
|
33%
|
14%
|
|
Fitzgerald, Larry
ARI
|
11
|
9.9
|
12.06667
|
22%
|
10%
|
|
Player
|
Avg
|
1-3 Avg
|
4-6 Avg
|
% Change
|
% Change Over YTD Average
|
|
Jackson, DeSean PHI
|
16.7
|
18.63333
|
14.66667
|
-21%
|
-12%
|
|
Cruz, Victor NYG
|
14.8
|
16.7
|
13
|
-22%
|
-12%
|
|
Decker, Eric DEN
|
10.1
|
11.4
|
8.833333
|
-23%
|
-13%
|
|
Edelman, Julian NE
|
9.5
|
10.83333
|
8.233333
|
-24%
|
-13%
|
|
Garcon, Pierre WAS
|
11.4
|
12.66667
|
9.4
|
-26%
|
-18%
|
|
Thomas, Demaryius
DEN
|
13.6
|
15.9
|
11.36667
|
-29%
|
-16%
|
|
Baldwin, Doug SEA
|
6.8
|
8
|
5.566667
|
-30%
|
-18%
|
|
Green, A.J. CIN
|
13.1
|
15.96667
|
10.16667
|
-36%
|
-22%
|
|
Jones, Julio ATL
|
15.9
|
18.66667
|
11.85
|
-37%
|
-25%
|
|
Brown, Antonio PIT
|
13.8
|
16.6
|
9.5
|
-43%
|
-31%
|
|
Ginn, Ted CAR
|
7.5
|
9.133333
|
5
|
-45%
|
-33%
|
|
Moss, Santana WAS
|
5.5
|
7.733333
|
4.2
|
-46%
|
-24%
|
|
Cobb, Randall GB
|
12.7
|
15.86667
|
8
|
-50%
|
-37%
|
|
Hankerson, Leonard
WAS
|
6.8
|
8.533333
|
4.25
|
-50%
|
-38%
|
|
Dobson, Aaron NE
|
5.8
|
8.4
|
4.066667
|
-52%
|
-30%
|
|
Boldin, Anquan SF
|
10.2
|
13.73333
|
6.633333
|
-52%
|
-35%
|
|
Gordon, Josh CLE
|
15.8
|
25.8
|
12.43333
|
-52%
|
-21%
|
|
Colston, Marques NO
|
6.4
|
8.733333
|
4.066667
|
-53%
|
-36%
|
|
Johnson, Calvin DET
|
12.7
|
16.93333
|
6.45
|
-62%
|
-49%
|
|
Hartline, Brian MIA
|
9.6
|
12.93333
|
4.7
|
-64%
|
-51%
|
|
Avery, Donnie KC
|
6.4
|
9.4
|
3.333333
|
-65%
|
-48%
|
|
Hill, Stephen NYJ
|
6.2
|
10.1
|
3.35
|
-67%
|
-46%
|
|
Hopkins, DeAndre
HOU
|
6.8
|
11.1
|
2.566667
|
-77%
|
-62%
|
|
Holmes, Santonio
NYJ
|
8.8
|
10.93333
|
2.5
|
-77%
|
-72%
|
|
Amendola, Danny NE
|
6.3
|
13.4
|
2.8
|
-79%
|
-56%
|
|
Johnson, Steve BUF
|
8.5
|
13.53333
|
1.9
|
-86%
|
-78%
|
|
Royal, Eddie SD
|
8.3
|
14.93333
|
1.733333
|
-88%
|
-79%
|
|
Player
|
Avg
|
1-3 Avg
|
4-6 Avg
|
% Change
|
% Change Over YTD Average
|
|
Gonzalez, Tony ATL
|
11
|
5.1
|
19.8
|
288%
|
80%
|
|
Cumberland, Jeff
NYJ
|
5.3
|
2.6
|
9.733333
|
274%
|
84%
|
|
Fauria, Joseph DET
|
6.1
|
7.6
|
21.4
|
182%
|
251%
|
|
Kendricks, Lance
STL
|
5.1
|
2.8
|
7.5
|
168%
|
47%
|
|
Miller, Heath PIT
|
6.3
|
3.5
|
7.7
|
120%
|
22%
|
|
Clark, Dallas BAL
|
5.3
|
4.7
|
8.75
|
86%
|
65%
|
|
Davis, Vernon SF
|
16.3
|
11.9
|
19.2
|
61%
|
18%
|
|
Rudolph, Kyle MIN
|
6.4
|
5.233333
|
8.15
|
56%
|
27%
|
|
Graham, Jimmy NO
|
18.2
|
22.6
|
20.75
|
-8%
|
14%
|
|
Celek, Brent PHI
|
5.1
|
6.7
|
5.8
|
-13%
|
14%
|
|
Winslow, Kellen NYJ
|
5.8
|
7.75
|
6.7
|
-14%
|
16%
|
|
Player
|
Avg
|
1-3 Avg
|
4-6 Avg
|
% Change
|
% Change Over YTD Average
|
|
Bennett, Martellus
CHI
|
8.8
|
10.5
|
7.133333
|
-32%
|
-19%
|
|
Daniels, Owen HOU
|
8.6
|
10
|
6.6
|
-34%
|
-23%
|
|
Olsen, Greg CAR
|
7
|
8.466667
|
4.9
|
-42%
|
-30%
|
|
Cameron, Jordan CLE
|
13.2
|
17.96667
|
8.366667
|
-53%
|
-37%
|
|
Finley, Jermichael
GB
|
7
|
12.05
|
5.35
|
-56%
|
-24%
|
|
Cook, Jared STL
|
7.4
|
10.83333
|
3.866667
|
-64%
|
-48%
|
|
Player
|
Avg
|
1-3 Avg
|
4-6 Avg
|
% Change
|
% Change Over YTD Average
|
|
Rams STL
|
14.5
|
7.333333
|
21.66667
|
195%
|
49%
|
|
49ers SF
|
15.5
|
8
|
23
|
188%
|
48%
|
|
Cardinals ARI
|
14.8
|
9.333333
|
20.33333
|
118%
|
37%
|
|
Chargers SD
|
8.8
|
6
|
11.66667
|
94%
|
33%
|
|
Redskins WAS
|
15.2
|
12
|
20
|
67%
|
32%
|
|
Steelers PIT
|
9.2
|
7.333333
|
12
|
64%
|
30%
|
|
Packers GB
|
14.2
|
12
|
17.5
|
46%
|
23%
|
|
Colts IND
|
16.5
|
14.33333
|
18.66667
|
30%
|
13%
|
|
Raiders OAK
|
14.8
|
13
|
16.66667
|
28%
|
13%
|
|
Player
|
Avg
|
1-3 Avg
|
4-6 Avg
|
% Change
|
% Change Over YTD Average
|
|
Dolphins MIA
|
13.4
|
15
|
11
|
-27%
|
-18%
|
|
Patriots NE
|
14
|
16.33333
|
11.66667
|
-29%
|
-17%
|
|
Ravens BAL
|
16.8
|
19.66667
|
14
|
-29%
|
-17%
|
|
Eagles PHI
|
9.7
|
11.33333
|
8
|
-29%
|
-18%
|
|
Panthers CAR
|
21
|
24
|
16.5
|
-31%
|
-21%
|
|
Texans HOU
|
10.7
|
12.66667
|
8.666667
|
-32%
|
-19%
|
|
Vikings MIN
|
11.6
|
13.33333
|
9
|
-33%
|
-22%
|
|
Buccaneers TB
|
14.2
|
16.66667
|
10.5
|
-37%
|
-26%
|
|
Bears CHI
|
13.7
|
18
|
9.333333
|
-48%
|
-32%
|
|
Cowboys DAL
|
16.8
|
22.33333
|
11.33333
|
-49%
|
-33%
|
|
Jets NYJ
|
12.2
|
17
|
7.333333
|
-57%
|
-40%
|
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