Hello and welcome to Market Fantasy!
We’ve just rounded the quarter pole of the 2013 NFL season,
and I wanted to take a look at some of the pre-season analysis and apply it to
what we’ve seen in the NFL so far this year. Today, I want to revisit the
touchdown percentages of players. The idea in a nutshell is that for a lot of
players, touchdowns are random and can help a lot of surprising starts. This
can apply both to the good and bad side of the ledger. A more in-depth
explanation of how to use this data can be found here, but the general idea is to dig a little
deeper into a players’ year to date score and find out how sustainable it is
based on how much of an influence touchdowns play in their numbers. Keep in
mind that some players, like Jimmy Graham, might be able to keep up a huge
touchdown number, but others, like Wes Welker (59%!) are more than likely to
slow down a bit. This makes them an ideal sell high. (Although if Peyton
Manning stays on pace for 7,000 touchdowns, I suppose someone has to catch
them). Lastly, I included the 0% club at the end of the rankings. These are
players who, somewhat surprisingly, haven’t scored yet this year. If an owner
is frustrated by their overall point total, I might try to make a lowball
offer. Here we go!
QB:
High Percentage: Low
Percentage:
|
Player
|
Pts
|
TD PTS
|
TD PCTG
|
Player
|
Pts
|
TD PTS
|
TD PCTG
|
|
Manning, Peyton QB DEN
|
166.8
|
96
|
57.55%
|
Palmer, Carson QB ARI
|
60.9
|
24
|
39.41%
|
|
Hoyer, Brian QB CLE
|
54
|
30
|
55.56%
|
Roethlisberger, Ben QB PIT
|
76.85
|
30
|
39.04%
|
|
Cutler, Jay QB CHI
|
87
|
48
|
55.17%
|
Griffin III, Robert QB WAS
|
93.3
|
36
|
38.59%
|
|
Newton, Cam QB CAR
|
76.65
|
42
|
54.79%
|
Vick, Michael QB PHI
|
110.8
|
42
|
37.91%
|
|
Rivers, Philip QB SD
|
124.85
|
66
|
52.86%
|
Pryor, Terrelle QB OAK
|
59
|
12
|
20.34%
|
No real surprises here. Manning has thrown for a ton of touchdowns,
so we expect him to be up here. On the other side of the ledger are the mobile
QBs like Vick and Pryor who make their money by the added dimension of running
the ball. The biggest surprise is Cam Newton showing on the high percentage
side, as his advantage is usually his ability to run the ball.
WR:
High Percentage: Low
Percentage:
|
Player
|
Pts
|
TD PTS
|
TD PCTG
|
Player
|
Pts
|
TD PTS
|
TD PCTG
|
|
LaFell, Brandon WR CAR
|
18.6
|
12
|
64.52%
|
Marshall, Brandon WR CHI
|
46.8
|
12
|
25.64%
|
|
Royal, Eddie WR SD
|
49
|
30
|
61.22%
|
Garcon, Pierre WR WAS
|
46.9
|
12
|
25.59%
|
|
Welker, Wes WR DEN
|
60.6
|
36
|
59.41%
|
Boldin, Anquan WR SF
|
49.2
|
12
|
24.39%
|
|
Brown, Marlon WR BAL
|
33
|
18
|
54.55%
|
Jones, James WR GB
|
25.2
|
6
|
23.81%
|
|
Austin, Tavon WR STL
|
25.4
|
12
|
47.24%
|
Jackson, DeSean WR PHI
|
51.3
|
12
|
23.39%
|
|
Rice, Sidney WR SEA
|
25.8
|
12
|
46.51%
|
Brown, Antonio WR PIT
|
54.6
|
12
|
21.98%
|
|
Bryant, Dez WR DAL
|
52.2
|
24
|
45.98%
|
Jones, Julio WR ATL
|
58.8
|
12
|
20.41%
|
|
Bowe, Dwayne WR KC
|
26.8
|
12
|
44.78%
|
Gordon, Josh WR CLE
|
29.9
|
6
|
20.07%
|
|
Ginn, Ted WR CAR
|
27.4
|
12
|
43.80%
|
Holmes, Santonio WR NYJ
|
30.3
|
6
|
19.80%
|
|
Johnson, Calvin WR DET
|
55.2
|
24
|
43.48%
|
Jeffery, Alshon WR CHI
|
32.8
|
6
|
18.29%
|
|
Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI
|
42.5
|
18
|
42.35%
|
Hopkins, DeAndre WR HOU
|
33
|
6
|
18.18%
|
|
Williams, Mike WR TB
|
28.4
|
12
|
42.25%
|
Colston, Marques WR NO
|
35.8
|
6
|
16.76%
|
|
Thompkins, Kenbrell WR NE
|
43.7
|
18
|
41.19%
|
Decker, Eric WR DEN
|
40
|
6
|
15.00%
|
|
Pettis, Austin WR STL
|
29.3
|
12
|
40.96%
|
Smith, Torrey WR BAL
|
49.5
|
6
|
12.12%
|
There are definitely a couple names that stand out to me in
the wide receiver group. I mentioned Welker before, but how about Calvin
Johnson? Everyone heard all about his TD woes earlier in the season, but it
seems like they’re solved this year. On the low percentage side, Eric Decker
and Marques Colston stand out to me. Both are big targets generally known for
their end zone prowess tied to high octane passing games. Same with James
Jones, who last year was a TD beast. These are three players I might thinking
about making an offer for as more points are probably on the horizon.
RB:
High Percentage: Low
Percentage:
|
Player
|
Pts
|
TD PTS
|
TD PCTG
|
Player
|
Pts
|
TD PTS
|
TD PCTG
|
|
Bell, Le'Veon RB PIT
|
20.4
|
12
|
58.82%
|
Sproles, Darren RB NO
|
47
|
12
|
25.53%
|
|
Hunter, Kendall RB SF
|
21.3
|
12
|
56.34%
|
Jackson, Fred RB BUF
|
48.9
|
12
|
24.54%
|
|
Thomas, Daniel RB MIA
|
22.2
|
12
|
54.05%
|
Foster, Arian RB HOU
|
51.8
|
12
|
23.17%
|
|
Green-Ellis, BenJarvus RB CIN
|
25.1
|
12
|
47.81%
|
Bush, Reggie RB DET
|
55.3
|
12
|
21.70%
|
|
Peterson, Adrian RB MIN
|
79.3
|
36
|
45.40%
|
Mathews, Ryan RB SD
|
33.2
|
6
|
18.07%
|
|
Pierce, Bernard RB BAL
|
27.8
|
12
|
43.17%
|
McCoy, LeSean RB PHI
|
72.8
|
12
|
16.48%
|
|
Bernard, Giovani RB CIN
|
44.9
|
18
|
40.09%
|
Martin, Doug RB TB
|
41.7
|
6
|
14.39%
|
|
Lynch, Marshawn RB SEA
|
61.9
|
24
|
38.77%
|
Powell, Bilal RB NYJ
|
46
|
6
|
13.04%
|
|
Moreno, Knowshon RB DEN
|
48.8
|
18
|
36.89%
|
Murray, DeMarco RB DAL
|
55.2
|
6
|
10.87%
|
Not too many surprises for the running backs. Both Cleveland
backs made the list for high percentages even though I think the perception of
Bernard is someone who can gain big chunks of yards. On the low percentage
side, I don’t think anyone expected Bilal Powell to rack up tons of yardage
without crossing the goal line, but here were are. Arian Foster and LeSean
McCoy are the other surprises to me as both of those backs’ end zone prowess
are well documented. Easy to think their seasons could get even better. Doug
Martin is going to be on this list for as long as the Bucs continue to be
completely unable to score. Lastly, sorry DeMarco Murray owners, but when you
have the ability to throw to a guy like Dez Bryant in the endzone, you’re
taking that shot. This will continue to limit Murray’s fantasy points until his
inevitable injury limits them completely.
TE:
High Percentage: Low
Percentage:
|
Player
|
Pts
|
TD PTS
|
TD PCTG
|
Player
|
Pts
|
TD PTS
|
TD PCTG
|
|
Graham, Garrett TE HOU
|
30.6
|
18
|
58.82%
|
Cook, Jared TE STL
|
34
|
12
|
35.29%
|
|
Davis, Vernon TE SF
|
31.6
|
18
|
56.96%
|
Clay, Charles TE MIA
|
36.6
|
12
|
32.79%
|
|
Walker, Delanie TE TEN
|
23.3
|
12
|
51.50%
|
Chandler, Scott TE BUF
|
21.5
|
6
|
27.91%
|
|
Thomas, Julius TE DEN
|
47.7
|
24
|
50.31%
|
Winslow, Kellen TE NYJ
|
22.8
|
6
|
26.32%
|
|
Finley, Jermichael TE GB
|
24.1
|
12
|
49.79%
|
Gates, Antonio TE SD
|
46.4
|
12
|
25.86%
|
|
Daniels, Owen TE HOU
|
37.2
|
18
|
48.39%
|
Myers, Brandon TE NYG
|
23.3
|
6
|
25.75%
|
|
Cameron, Jordan TE CLE
|
66
|
30
|
45.45%
|
Olsen, Greg TE CAR
|
25.4
|
6
|
23.62%
|
Not a lot of surprise on the tight end spectrum. On the high
percentage side, I think the biggest surprise is the absence of Jimmy Graham
despite the fact that he’s caught 6 TDs already. That’s what happens when you
also have 458 yard (which, crazily enough, is the second highest receiving
total among all players behind only Julio Jones’ 481). On the low percentage
side, Scott Chandler catches my eye as he is generally a TD or bust guy. Also,
with the way Philip Rivers is lighting it up, it’s surprising to see Antonio
Gates with only two end zone dances this year.
We are the 0%!
The last thing I want to do is point out some notable names
who have yet to experience the joy of the touchdown this year. Below, you will
find a selected list of running backs and wide receivers who have scored at
least 20 fantasy points this year without scoring a touchdown. Think we have
some buy low candidates here? Let me know your thoughts in the comments and as
always, thanks for reading!
|
Player
|
Pts
|
TD PTS
|
TD PCTG
|
Player
|
Pts
|
TD PTS
|
|
|
Johnson, Chris RB TEN
|
28.9
|
0
|
0.00%
|
Johnson, Andre WR HOU
|
36.8
|
0
|
0.00%
|
|
Williams, DeAngelo RB CAR
|
28.2
|
0
|
0.00%
|
Simpson, Jerome WR MIN
|
34.2
|
0
|
0.00%
|
|
Spiller, C.J. RB BUF
|
23.9
|
0
|
0.00%
|
Shorts, Cecil WR JAC
|
33.7
|
0
|
0.00%
|
|
Tate, Ben RB HOU
|
23.1
|
0
|
0.00%
|
Jackson, Vincent WR TB
|
29.2
|
0
|
0.00%
|
|
Rodgers, Jacquizz RB ATL
|
22.8
|
0
|
0.00%
|
Floyd, Michael WR ARI
|
24
|
0
|
0.00%
|
|
Thomas, Pierre RB NO
|
21.2
|
0
|
0.00%
|
Sanders, Emmanuel WR PIT
|
23.1
|
0
|
0.00%
|
|
Richardson, Daryl RB STL
|
20
|
0
|
0.00%
|
Burleson, Nate WR DET
|
23.1
|
0
|
0.00%
|
|
Ridley, Stevan RB NE
|
18.8
|
0
|
0.00%
|
Nicks, Hakeem WR NYG
|
23
|
0
|
0.00%
|
|
Wilson, David RB NYG
|
9.8
|
0
|
0.00%
|
Tate, Golden WR SEA
|
20.4
|
0
|
0.00%
|
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