Hello and welcome to Market Fantasy!
Today, I want to take a look at breakout performances for this
year and see what they meant for future performances. First, the details. For
this exercise, I looked at a few things. First I took a players’ highest weekly
score so far this year. I then compared that to their average score to see how
much higher it was as a percentage than their average weekly score. Next I took
a look at what that player did the next week and found the difference. So in
the charts below, from left to right, are: the player’s weekly average score,
their max score, what week their max score came in, what they did the next
week, the difference between their max score and the next week’s score, and the
percentage over the average score their max score was. To be included in this
study, I looked at players who’s max score was: 150% above their average for
QB’s and 200% above their average for everyone else. I felt those numbers represented a significant enough jump to be called a breakout performance. I also excluded players
whose top score came in week 5, since we don’t know what they’ll follow that up
with yet. Lastly, for comparison’s sake, the average position score for the
week after the max score and the difference average difference between the max
and next week scores are at the bottom of each positional chart.
The QB chart is a nice mix of the range of players at the
position. There are no-brainer starters and waiver wire fodder throughout. The
picture changes for the RB and TE and to a lesser extent, the WR charts. Most
of the players in these charts are guys who were not drafted, but were all hot
waiver wire pickups at some point throughout the year so far. Take a look at
what the RB, WR, and TE all did the week after their “breakout” weeks. The RB
and WR followed up their breakout weeks with around 4.5 points on average. The
TEs didn’t even crack 4 points the next week.
So what does this mean? I think there are two takeaways to
be had here and they both center around playing the waivers. The first is that
these players are not owned when you pick them up for a reason – they are
inconsistent with no proven history of performance. Football, more so than any
other sport, is won on the waivers. This means that if you are blowing your
budget or prime waiver spot on the latest hot thing, you are going to be
constantly chasing your tail and end up stuck when one of your guys gets hurt
or you miss out on a true breakout (think Colston, Boldin, Alf) when they
happen. Chasing the next hot thing constantly brings me to my second point: the
trap that so many fantasy players fall into called the “gambler’s fallacy.”
In game theory (yes, that’s an actual thing in the field of
statistics), the gambler’s fallacy is the idea that a certain outcome is “due”
because of previous outcomes. The best example is a simple question. If you
flip a coin five times and get five heads, what are the odds that the next flip
will be tails? The tendency for a lot of people would be to say that tails has
a better than 50/50 chance of happening, but this is simply not true. Every
time you flip a coin, the chance of heads or tails is always 50/50. That is
because each flip is an independent event. In fantasy sports, there is a strong
tendency to want to chase stats based on the previous games’ outcome, but in
reality, each game is an independent event with very little correlation to the
previous game. All kinds of variables change or reset to produce a completely
different situation. This is why the return on a player with a poor performance
history is generally very low the week after a breakout game. Keep this in mind
next time you’re tempted to splurge on the hot free agent pick up. Remember to
consider things like: opportunity, signals pointing to a change in role (snaps,
targets, etc..). Consult my consistency rankings to see if a player’s breakout
is in line with what we’ve come to expect.
Thanks for reading and good luck in week 6!
QB:
|
Player
|
Avg
|
Max
|
Max Week
|
Next Week
|
Max Wk - Next Wk.
|
Max/Avg
|
|
Kaepernick, Colin
SF
|
16.2
|
41.7
|
1
|
5.8
|
35.9
|
257.41%
|
|
Manning, Eli NYG
|
18.7
|
41.8
|
1
|
15.5
|
26.3
|
223.53%
|
|
Palmer, Carson ARI
|
12.2
|
24.1
|
1
|
13.9
|
10.2
|
197.54%
|
|
Vick, Michael PHI
|
23.4
|
43.5
|
2
|
17.9
|
25.6
|
185.90%
|
|
Schaub, Matt HOU
|
18.2
|
32.8
|
1
|
25.9
|
6.9
|
180.22%
|
|
Newton, Cam CAR
|
20.2
|
35.4
|
3
|
9.8
|
25.6
|
175.25%
|
|
Smith, Geno NYJ
|
18.2
|
31.6
|
3
|
10.3
|
21.3
|
173.63%
|
|
Rodgers, Aaron GB
|
28.4
|
48.2
|
2
|
14.2
|
34.0
|
169.72%
|
|
Flacco, Joe BAL
|
15.3
|
25.5
|
1
|
15.0
|
10.5
|
166.67%
|
|
Brady, Tom NE
|
17.2
|
27.6
|
4
|
5.9
|
21.7
|
160.47%
|
|
Bradford, Sam STL
|
22.5
|
35.6
|
2
|
15.6
|
20.0
|
158.22%
|
|
Hoyer, Brian CLE
|
17.8
|
27.8
|
3
|
23.5
|
4.3
|
156.18%
|
|
Locker, Jake TEN
|
20.2
|
30.8
|
3
|
25.7
|
5.1
|
152.48%
|
|
Manning, Peyton DEN
|
43.3
|
65.5
|
1
|
27.3
|
38.2
|
151.27%
|
|
Average:
|
|
|
|
16.2
|
20.4
|
|
RB:
|
Player
|
Avg
|
Max
|
Max Week
|
Next Week
|
Max Wk - Next Wk.
|
Max/Avg
|
|
Franklin, Johnathan
GB
|
4.9
|
19.6
|
3
|
0.1
|
19.5
|
400.00%
|
|
Blount, LeGarrette
NE
|
4.9
|
12.4
|
4
|
3.1
|
9.3
|
253.06%
|
|
Sproles, Darren NO
|
10.8
|
27.2
|
4
|
4.1
|
23.1
|
251.85%
|
|
Starks, James GB
|
10.7
|
25.8
|
2
|
5.5
|
20.3
|
241.12%
|
|
Hunter, Kendall SF
|
5
|
11.8
|
4
|
2.9
|
8.9
|
236.00%
|
|
Hillman, Ronnie DEN
|
6
|
13.8
|
3
|
5.7
|
8.1
|
230.00%
|
|
Woodhead, Danny SD
|
9.3
|
20.6
|
4
|
11.1
|
9.5
|
221.51%
|
|
Murray, DeMarco DAL
|
14.2
|
31.3
|
3
|
9.2
|
22.1
|
220.42%
|
|
Reece, Marcel OAK
|
4.9
|
10.5
|
3
|
5.7
|
4.8
|
214.29%
|
|
Lynch, Marshawn SEA
|
15.1
|
31.5
|
2
|
6.9
|
24.6
|
208.61%
|
|
Thomas, Daniel MIA
|
4.7
|
9.7
|
3
|
0.6
|
9.1
|
206.38%
|
|
Pierce, Bernard BAL
|
6.5
|
13.2
|
3
|
0.9
|
12.3
|
203.08%
|
|
Tate, Ben HOU
|
5
|
10.1
|
2
|
4.3
|
5.8
|
202.00%
|
|
Snelling, Jason ATL
|
8.5
|
17.1
|
3
|
3.4
|
13.7
|
201.18%
|
|
Mendenhall, Rashard
ARI
|
7.7
|
15.4
|
2
|
4.1
|
11.3
|
200.00%
|
|
Average:
|
|
|
|
4.5
|
13.5
|
|
WR:
|
Player
|
Avg
|
Max
|
Max Week
|
Next Week
|
Max Wk - Next Wk.
|
Max/Avg
|
|
Hill, Stephen NYJ
|
6.5
|
19.8
|
3
|
2.1
|
17.7
|
304.62%
|
|
Holmes, Santonio
NYJ
|
8.8
|
26.4
|
3
|
2.5
|
23.9
|
300.00%
|
|
Boldin, Anquan SF
|
11.7
|
33.8
|
1
|
0.7
|
33.1
|
288.89%
|
|
Green, A.J. CIN
|
11.8
|
33.2
|
1
|
4.1
|
29.1
|
281.36%
|
|
Royal, Eddie SD
|
9.9
|
27
|
2
|
3.4
|
23.6
|
272.73%
|
|
Hopkins, DeAndre
HOU
|
7.7
|
20.7
|
2
|
6.0
|
14.7
|
268.83%
|
|
Hankerson, Leonard
WAS
|
7.6
|
20
|
1
|
3.5
|
16.5
|
263.16%
|
|
Wallace, Mike MIA
|
8
|
20.5
|
2
|
2.2
|
18.3
|
256.25%
|
|
Brown, Antonio PIT
|
14.9
|
36.6
|
3
|
9.8
|
26.8
|
245.64%
|
|
Jackson, Vincent TB
|
8.5
|
20.4
|
1
|
7.7
|
12.7
|
240.00%
|
|
Johnson, Steve BUF
|
8.5
|
20.1
|
2
|
10.6
|
9.5
|
236.47%
|
|
Washington, Nate
TEN
|
10.8
|
25.5
|
4
|
3.0
|
22.5
|
236.11%
|
|
Thompkins, Kenbrell
NE
|
9.7
|
21.7
|
4
|
1.6
|
20.1
|
223.71%
|
|
Thomas, Demaryius
DEN
|
14.8
|
33.1
|
1
|
5.2
|
27.9
|
223.65%
|
|
Avery, Donnie KC
|
7.9
|
17.1
|
3
|
2.3
|
14.8
|
216.46%
|
|
Fitzgerald, Larry
ARI
|
9.4
|
20
|
1
|
3.3
|
16.7
|
212.77%
|
|
Hartline, Brian MIA
|
9.6
|
20.4
|
1
|
6.8
|
13.6
|
212.50%
|
|
Moore, Denarius OAK
|
10.5
|
21.4
|
3
|
6.6
|
14.8
|
203.81%
|
|
Decker, Eric DEN
|
11.1
|
22.3
|
3
|
8.8
|
13.5
|
200.90%
|
|
Average:
|
|
|
|
4.7
|
19.5
|
|
TE:
|
Player
|
Avg
|
Max
|
Max Week
|
Next Week
|
Max Wk - Next Wk.
|
Max/Avg
|
|
Cook, Jared STL
|
7.9
|
27.1
|
1
|
1.0
|
26.1
|
343.04%
|
|
Gonzalez, Tony ATL
|
11
|
29.9
|
9.7
|
20.2
|
271.82%
|
|
|
Chandler, Scott BUF
|
5.3
|
13.9
|
3
|
2.8
|
11.1
|
262.26%
|
|
Winslow, Kellen NYJ
|
5.8
|
13.9
|
1
|
1.6
|
12.3
|
239.66%
|
|
Myers, Brandon NYG
|
5.4
|
12.6
|
1
|
7.4
|
5.2
|
233.33%
|
|
Fleener, Coby IND
|
6
|
13.7
|
4
|
1.5
|
12.2
|
228.33%
|
|
Daniels, Owen HOU
|
8.6
|
18.7
|
1
|
8.4
|
10.3
|
217.44%
|
|
Bennett, Martellus
CHI
|
9.2
|
19.6
|
2
|
1.0
|
18.6
|
213.04%
|
|
Graham, Garrett HOU
|
6.4
|
12.9
|
4
|
1.5
|
11.4
|
201.56%
|
|
Average:
|
|
|
|
3.9
|
14.2
|
|
DST:
|
Player
|
Avg
|
Max
|
Max Week
|
Next Week
|
Max Wk - Next Wk.
|
Max/Avg
|
|
Panthers CAR
|
21.5
|
51
|
3
|
14
|
37.0
|
237.21%
|
|
Bears CHI
|
13.6
|
30
|
3
|
8.0
|
22.0
|
220.59%
|
|
Dolphins MIA
|
13.4
|
27
|
1
|
12.0
|
15.0
|
201.49%
|
|
Steelers PIT
|
6
|
12
|
1
|
4.0
|
8.0
|
200.00%
|
|
Average:
|
|
|
|
9.5
|
20.5
|
|
I stopped reading after Peyton Manning's average. GOAT
ReplyDeletePretty incredible that a 60 point game is only 150% above his average score.
ReplyDelete