Hello and welcome to Market Fantasy!
Earlier in the pre-season, I did an article
on the percentage of a player’s overall fantasy points that came via the
touchdown. I then revisited that here.
The idea was to take a look behind the end of year stats and determine how much
of that was really repeatable. A lot of the popular narratives in the fantasy
community centered around things like how many times Calvin Johnson was tackled
at the one yard line affecting his value, or how Matt Forte can’t be elite
since he never breaks the plane. This seemed to fit the narrative that
touchdowns are not predictable. What I wanted to do was try to highlight
players on the extreme ends of the touchdown spectrum by highlighting the
percentage of points that came via touchdown. For a running back or a wide
receiver, a touchdown is equal to 60 yards. It can vary for quarterbacks
depending on your league’s scoring setup.
ANYWAY, I wanted to revisit that now that we’re getting to
the halfway mark and see what has changed for this year. The idea with this
exercise is to look for players who might be over-valued or under-valued, and
in the case of certain players (Mike Tolbert) where we know their main value
comes through the end-zone dance, see just how true that really is. The
criteria for this piece was for Quarterbacks a minimum of 60 points YTD (or
close enough for Mike Glennon to sneak in) and at least 50% of points via
touchdown or under 40% of points via touchdown. For RB and WR, the cutoff is 30
points (yes, there are actually a few running backs with at least 30 points
this year), and over 35% and under 20% of points via touchdown. TE are at least
25 points year to date and over 40% and under 30% of points via touchdown. The
DST ranks included all 32 teams and above 15% and below 10% of points via
touchdown. Alright, let’s take a look!
QB:
Not many surprises in the QB ranks. The guys who score a lot
of points are the ones who throw for a lot of yards and touchdowns. The guys
with a low touchdown percentage tend to be guys who run a lot (except for
Brady, who has been a disappointment). Yes, even Alex Smith this year! What
this does show is that Glennon and Foles aren’t worth starting since so much of
their value is tied up in the touchdown pass.
A couple quick observations: I wanted to leave Bradford on
here even though he’s out for the year to show what a season he was having. Who
was he throwing to, though? Jared Cook and Chris Givens, two highly touted
players in the offseason, are drops. He was really spreading the ball around.
The second is the appearance of Cam on the high TD percentage list. This is a
guy who you think gets most of his value from running. The last couple weeks,
he is really heating up though. Probably too late to buy low.
RB:
Outside of the names everyone expects to top the list of
high TD percentage runners (Tolbert, Jacobs), there are a few surprises on this
list that jump out at me. Moreno is having a great season, but 8 touchdowns?!
That’s going to be hard to sustain that pace. I would look to sell before he
slows down or gets hurt. AP and Charles surprise me for different reasons. For
someone who posted the second highest yardage season for a RB in league
history, it’s a little disconcerting to see him have so much of his value tied
to touchdowns. For Charles, the opposite is true. I can’t believe how many
touchdowns he’s scoring. He’s clearly a good fit for this new KC offense.
On the other side of the ball, imagine how dominant McCoy
would be if he scored more. Reggie Bush is having an awesome season, but it
feels like he’s scored more. He’s another perfect fit for his season and should
continue to post good numbers based on yardage alone with an occasional score
sprinkled on top. DeAngelo Williams finally crossed the goal line last night.
Too bad the impending return of Stewart will almost certainly hurt his value.
WR:
If you took the over on Wes Welker touchdowns this year at 7,
congratulations. He is sitting at 8 so far this year, and has been a monster
with Peyton Manning throwing to him. With all the talk of this turning into a
passing league, it’s somewhat surprising to see a lot of big names sitting at
only one touchdown so far this year. I still like Colston to get going,
especially if Graham is out. He can have frustrating stretches, but the numbers
are always there at the end of the year. Make a lowball offer for him. It’s
nice to see Megatron getting his this year after coming so close so many times
last year.
TE:
Not a whole lot to say here, the elite tight ends are elite
because they score now days. I just need to point out again my new favorite
player, Joseph Fauria: 38.1 total points – 30 from touchdowns. Awesome. Hopefully
you took my advice a couple weeks ago and added Jordan Reed.
DST:
No surprise to see the Bears atop these ranks. They are
alarmingly successful at creating turnovers, and make it a point to score on
each one. They’ve been pretty bad as a unit this year, but it’s a lot of fun to
watch them act like an offense on a turnover. Everyone’s blocking. Very cool.
I’m probably not starting them anymore though, unfortunately. Look at the
Seahawks and Panthers. The number two and three scoring defenses through 7
weeks, and they only have scored one touchdown each. The surprising Saints are
almost in the elite defense conversation too, amazingly enough. A touchdown or
two and they’re right there. Amazing what a year can do.
That’s all for now. Scroll through and check out the
numbers. Leave any comments you might have. Thanks for reading!
|
Player
|
Fan Pts.
|
TD Pts
|
TD Pctg
|
|
Manning, Peyton DEN
|
269.95
|
156
|
57.79%
|
|
Foles, Nick PHI
|
75.9
|
42
|
55.34%
|
|
Bradford, Sam STL
|
161.45
|
84
|
52.03%
|
|
Glennon, Mike TB
|
59.3
|
30
|
50.59%
|
|
Stafford, Matthew
DET
|
191.75
|
96
|
50.07%
|
|
Cutler, Jay CHI
|
144.1
|
72
|
49.97%
|
|
Newton, Cam CAR
|
144.45
|
72
|
49.84%
|
|
Romo, Tony DAL
|
181.1
|
90
|
49.70%
|
|
Brees, Drew NO
|
181.3
|
90
|
49.64%
|
QB Low Percentage:
|
Player
|
Fan Pts.
|
TD Pts
|
TD Pctg
|
|
Brady, Tom NE
|
122.7
|
48
|
39.12%
|
|
Manuel, EJ BUF
|
78.35
|
30
|
38.29%
|
|
Weeden, Brandon CLE
|
79.4
|
30
|
37.78%
|
|
Flacco, Joe BAL
|
129.75
|
48
|
36.99%
|
|
Roethlisberger, Ben
PIT
|
113.65
|
42
|
36.96%
|
|
Smith, Alex KC
|
140.3
|
48
|
34.21%
|
|
Vick, Michael PHI
|
123.95
|
42
|
33.88%
|
|
Griffin III, Robert
WAS
|
142.6
|
48
|
33.66%
|
|
Pryor, Terrelle OAK
|
101.55
|
30
|
29.54%
|
|
Freeman, Josh MIN
|
42.05
|
12
|
28.54%
|
|
Henne, Chad JAC
|
64.9
|
12
|
18.49%
|
RB High Percentage:
|
Player
|
Fan Pts.
|
TD Pts
|
TD Pctg
|
|
Hunter, Kendall SF
|
31.9
|
18
|
56.43%
|
|
Tolbert, Mike CAR
|
42.8
|
24
|
56.07%
|
|
Jacobs, Brandon NYG
|
32.7
|
18
|
55.05%
|
|
Helu, Roy WAS
|
50
|
24
|
48.00%
|
|
Moreno, Knowshon
DEN
|
109.1
|
48
|
44.00%
|
|
Thomas, Daniel MIA
|
29.2
|
12
|
41.10%
|
|
Snelling, Jason ATL
|
43.9
|
18
|
41.00%
|
|
Rodgers, Jacquizz
ATL
|
58.8
|
24
|
40.82%
|
|
Peterson, Adrian
MIN
|
93.2
|
36
|
38.63%
|
|
Green-Ellis, BenJarvus
CIN
|
48.8
|
18
|
36.89%
|
|
Lynch, Marshawn SEA
|
115.5
|
42
|
36.36%
|
|
Rice, Ray BAL
|
49.6
|
18
|
36.29%
|
|
Charles, Jamaal KC
|
133.8
|
48
|
35.87%
|
|
Mendenhall, Rashard
ARI
|
50.7
|
18
|
35.50%
|
RB Low Percentage:
|
Player
|
Fan Pts.
|
TD Pts
|
TD Pctg
|
|
Sproles, Darren NO
|
58.4
|
12
|
20.55%
|
|
Bush, Reggie DET
|
91.1
|
18
|
19.76%
|
|
Mathews, Ryan SD
|
61.2
|
12
|
19.61%
|
|
Bolden, Brandon NE
|
30.7
|
6
|
19.54%
|
|
Stacy, Zac STL
|
31.9
|
6
|
18.81%
|
|
Johnson, Chris TEN
|
65.3
|
12
|
18.38%
|
|
Brown, Donald IND
|
33
|
6
|
18.18%
|
|
Hillman, Ronnie DEN
|
34.1
|
6
|
17.60%
|
|
McCoy, LeSean PHI
|
111.2
|
18
|
16.19%
|
|
Tate, Ben HOU
|
39.4
|
6
|
15.23%
|
|
Foster, Arian HOU
|
84.5
|
12
|
14.20%
|
|
Spiller, C.J. BUF
|
43.8
|
6
|
13.70%
|
|
Martin, Doug TB
|
56.2
|
6
|
10.68%
|
|
Powell, Bilal NYJ
|
56.3
|
6
|
10.66%
|
|
Williams, DeAngelo
CAR
|
52.7
|
0
|
0.00%
|
WR High Percentage:
|
Player
|
Fan Pts.
|
TD Pts
|
TD Pctg
|
|
Royal, Eddie SD
|
62.9
|
36
|
57.23%
|
|
Welker, Wes DEN
|
93.4
|
48
|
51.39%
|
|
Pettis, Austin STL
|
49.1
|
24
|
48.88%
|
|
Rice, Sidney SEA
|
39.1
|
18
|
46.04%
|
|
Brown, Marlon BAL
|
42.1
|
18
|
42.76%
|
|
Johnson, Calvin DET
|
85.2
|
36
|
42.25%
|
|
Thompkins, Kenbrell
NE
|
57.4
|
24
|
41.81%
|
|
LaFell, Brandon CAR
|
44.4
|
18
|
40.54%
|
|
Randle, Rueben NYG
|
59.3
|
24
|
40.47%
|
|
Bryant, Dez DAL
|
90.9
|
36
|
39.60%
|
|
Austin, Tavon STL
|
30.8
|
12
|
38.96%
|
|
Smith, Steve CAR
|
47.3
|
18
|
38.05%
|
|
Williams, Mike TB
|
31.6
|
12
|
37.97%
|
|
Moore, Denarius OAK
|
63.9
|
24
|
37.56%
|
|
Jones, Marvin CIN
|
48.3
|
18
|
37.27%
|
|
Fitzgerald, Larry
ARI
|
64.6
|
24
|
37.15%
|
|
Nelson, Jordy GB
|
82.6
|
30
|
36.32%
|
|
Marshall, Brandon
CHI
|
84
|
30
|
35.71%
|
WR Low Percentage:
|
Player
|
Fan Pts.
|
TD Pts
|
TD Pctg
|
|
Hopkins, DeAndre
HOU
|
51.6
|
12
|
23.26%
|
|
Allen, Keenan SD
|
51.9
|
12
|
23.12%
|
|
Hartline, Brian MIA
|
52.1
|
12
|
23.03%
|
|
Decker, Eric DEN
|
78.7
|
18
|
22.87%
|
|
Hilton, T.Y. IND
|
53.8
|
12
|
22.30%
|
|
Washington, Nate
TEN
|
55.9
|
12
|
21.47%
|
|
Cobb, Randall GB
|
57.6
|
12
|
20.83%
|
|
Edelman, Julian NE
|
58.6
|
12
|
20.48%
|
|
Gordon, Josh CLE
|
59.2
|
12
|
20.27%
|
|
Garcon, Pierre WAS
|
59.6
|
12
|
20.13%
|
|
Boldin, Anquan SF
|
61.5
|
12
|
19.51%
|
|
Dobson, Aaron NE
|
32.4
|
6
|
18.52%
|
|
Brown, Vincent SD
|
32.5
|
6
|
18.46%
|
|
Brown, Antonio PIT
|
68.5
|
12
|
17.52%
|
|
Streater, Rod OAK
|
34.3
|
6
|
17.49%
|
|
Hill, Stephen NYJ
|
35.7
|
6
|
16.81%
|
|
Sanders, Emmanuel
PIT
|
36.8
|
6
|
16.30%
|
|
Colston, Marques NO
|
38.4
|
6
|
15.63%
|
|
Jeffery, Alshon CHI
|
76.9
|
12
|
15.60%
|
|
Avery, Donnie KC
|
38.5
|
6
|
15.58%
|
|
Douglas, Harry ATL
|
40.8
|
6
|
14.71%
|
|
Baldwin, Doug SEA
|
42.3
|
6
|
14.18%
|
|
Wallace, Mike MIA
|
42.9
|
6
|
13.99%
|
|
Tate, Golden SEA
|
43.5
|
6
|
13.79%
|
|
Blackmon, Justin
JAC
|
44.4
|
6
|
13.51%
|
|
Floyd, Michael ARI
|
46.3
|
6
|
12.96%
|
|
Wright, Kendall TEN
|
49.3
|
6
|
12.17%
|
|
Shorts, Cecil JAC
|
55.1
|
6
|
10.89%
|
|
Smith, Torrey BAL
|
68.9
|
6
|
8.71%
|
|
Johnson, Andre HOU
|
58.4
|
0
|
0.00%
|
|
Nicks, Hakeem NYG
|
47
|
0
|
0.00%
|
TE High Percentage:
|
Player
|
Fan Pts.
|
TD Pts
|
TD Pctg
|
|
Fauria, Joseph DET
|
38.1
|
30
|
78.74%
|
|
Miller, Zach SEA
|
29.6
|
18
|
60.81%
|
|
Kendricks, Lance
STL
|
31.6
|
18
|
56.96%
|
|
Thomas, Julius DEN
|
90.2
|
48
|
53.22%
|
|
Graham, Garrett HOU
|
38.4
|
18
|
46.88%
|
|
Clay, Charles MIA
|
54.5
|
24
|
44.04%
|
|
Davis, Vernon SF
|
82.6
|
36
|
43.58%
|
|
Fleener, Coby IND
|
41.5
|
18
|
43.37%
|
|
Walker, Delanie TEN
|
41.7
|
18
|
43.17%
|
|
Daniels, Owen HOU
|
43.2
|
18
|
41.67%
|
|
Winslow, Kellen NYJ
|
28.9
|
12
|
41.52%
|
|
Cameron, Jordan CLE
|
87.5
|
36
|
41.14%
|
|
Bennett, Martellus
CHI
|
59.6
|
24
|
40.27%
|
TE Low Percentage:
|
Player
|
Fan Pts.
|
TD Pts
|
TD Pctg
|
|
Reed, Jordan WAS
|
41.8
|
12
|
28.71%
|
|
Cook, Jared STL
|
44.4
|
12
|
27.03%
|
|
Pettigrew, Brandon
DET
|
23.4
|
6
|
25.64%
|
|
McGrath, Sean KC
|
24.1
|
6
|
24.90%
|
|
Miller, Heath PIT
|
24.6
|
6
|
24.39%
|
|
Myers, Brandon NYG
|
28.3
|
6
|
21.20%
|
|
Gates, Antonio SD
|
59.7
|
12
|
20.10%
|
|
Eifert, Tyler CIN
|
33
|
6
|
18.18%
|
|
Olsen, Greg CAR
|
39.9
|
6
|
15.04%
|
|
Gresham, Jermaine
CIN
|
25.4
|
0
|
0.00%
|
DST High Percentage:
|
Player
|
Fan Pts.
|
TD Pts
|
TD Pctg
|
|
Bears CHI
|
92
|
30
|
32.61%
|
|
Redskins WAS
|
88
|
24
|
27.27%
|
|
Vikings MIN
|
74
|
18
|
24.32%
|
|
Broncos DEN
|
92
|
18
|
19.57%
|
|
Falcons ATL
|
62
|
12
|
19.35%
|
|
Cowboys DAL
|
125
|
24
|
19.20%
|
|
Rams STL
|
95
|
18
|
18.95%
|
|
Chiefs KC
|
190
|
30
|
15.79%
|
|
Titans TEN
|
116
|
18
|
15.52%
|
|
Lions DET
|
80
|
12
|
15.00%
|
DST Low Percentage:
|
Player
|
Fan Pts.
|
TD Pts
|
TD Pctg
|
|
Buccaneers TB
|
75
|
6
|
8.00%
|
|
Texans HOU
|
76
|
6
|
7.89%
|
|
Dolphins MIA
|
81
|
6
|
7.41%
|
|
Packers GB
|
90
|
6
|
6.67%
|
|
Jets NYJ
|
93
|
6
|
6.45%
|
|
Bengals CIN
|
95
|
6
|
6.32%
|
|
Cardinals ARI
|
99
|
6
|
6.06%
|
|
Patriots NE
|
100
|
6
|
6.00%
|
|
Panthers CAR
|
129
|
6
|
4.65%
|
|
Seahawks SEA
|
144
|
6
|
4.17%
|
|
Saints NO
|
93
|
0
|
0.00%
|
|
Chargers SD
|
77
|
0
|
0.00%
|
|
Eagles PHI
|
70
|
0
|
0.00%
|
|
Steelers PIT
|
54
|
0
|
0.00%
|
|
Giants NYG
|
45
|
0
|
0.00%
|
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