Hello and Welcome to Market Fantasy!
Today I want to talk about touchdowns and how they relate to
fantasy performance. We’ve all heard about how Calvin Johnson was tackled at
the 1 yard line 47,000 times last year and how if not for this, his already
wide receiver leading performance would’ve been even better. He also hurt
Matthew Stafford by not being able to get those extra three feet. Or how about
how Matt Forte isn’t truly elite because he doesn’t score that many touchdowns.
Or how about those who argue that touchdowns aren’t even predictable, that
they’re basically crapshoots. So what do we make of this?
What I have done is try to find out those players whose
value is more dependent on the end zone dance than others. After all, if Calvin
Johnson can lead all receivers in fantasy scoring while only taking it to the
house five times, then maybe other players can be productive without lighting
up the scoreboard. Maybe drafting Mike Tolbert and waiting for him to fling his
fat body across the goal line isn’t such a great strategy.
To do this, I have the percentage of a players’ points that
came via the touchdown. Quite simply it is total overall fantasy points from
2012 divided by the points from touchdowns. There are then two categories.
Players whose performance is more dependent on the touchdown than average, and
players who can do just fine without it, thank you very much. For the sake of
these ranks, I cut off total scoring for QB’s at 100, WR and RB at 60, and TE
at 40 points last year, because, really, no one cares about players who can’t
even throw up 60 points on the year.
Click through the ranks and let me know what you think!
There’s some surprising names in both categories I think.
Thanks for reading!
Players more
dependent:
|
Player
|
Points
|
TD Pts
|
% of Pts
|
|
Dalton, Andy QB CIN
|
295.45
|
132
|
45%
|
|
Brees, Drew QB NO
|
399.35
|
178
|
45%
|
|
Rodgers, Aaron QB GB
|
392.65
|
168
|
43%
|
|
Brady, Tom QB NE
|
388.55
|
160
|
41%
|
|
Manning, Peyton QB DEN
|
359.65
|
148
|
41%
|
|
Wilson, Russell QB SEA
|
312.8
|
128
|
41%
|
|
Rivers, Philip QB SD
|
258.3
|
104
|
40%
|
|
Roethlisberger, Ben QB PIT
|
260.45
|
104
|
40%
|
|
Player
|
Points
|
TD Pts
|
% of Pts
|
|
Brown, Andre RB NYG
|
95.1
|
48
|
50%
|
|
Tolbert, Mike RB CAR
|
87.1
|
42
|
48%
|
|
Wilson, David RB NYG
|
67.2
|
30
|
45%
|
|
Turner, Michael RB ATL
|
157.1
|
66
|
42%
|
|
Foster, Arian RB HOU
|
262.1
|
102
|
39%
|
|
Bush, Michael RB CHI
|
77.4
|
30
|
39%
|
|
Vereen, Shane RB NE
|
62
|
24
|
39%
|
|
Battle, Jackie RB TEN
|
65.9
|
24
|
36%
|
|
Leshoure, Mikel RB DET
|
149.2
|
54
|
36%
|
|
Ridley, Stevan RB NE
|
199.4
|
72
|
36%
|
|
Woodhead, Danny RB SD
|
116.7
|
42
|
36%
|
|
Richardson, Trent RB CLE
|
203.7
|
72
|
35%
|
|
Thomas, Daniel RB MIA
|
68.1
|
24
|
35%
|
|
Sproles, Darren RB NO
|
139.1
|
48
|
35%
|
|
Player
|
Points
|
TD Pts
|
% of Pts
|
|
Jones, James WR GB
|
162.4
|
84
|
52%
|
|
Moss, Santana WR WAS
|
104.7
|
48
|
46%
|
|
Decker, Eric WR DEN
|
184.4
|
78
|
42%
|
|
Jennings, Greg WR MIN
|
60.6
|
24
|
40%
|
|
Alexander, Danario WR SD
|
107.8
|
42
|
39%
|
|
Tate, Golden WR SEA
|
110.8
|
42
|
38%
|
|
Young, Titus WR STL
|
63.9
|
24
|
38%
|
|
Wallace, Mike WR MIA
|
130.3
|
48
|
37%
|
|
Moore, Denarius WR OAK
|
115.6
|
42
|
36%
|
|
Nelson, Jordy WR GB
|
116.5
|
42
|
36%
|
|
Rice, Sidney WR SEA
|
117.4
|
42
|
36%
|
|
Smith, Torrey WR BAL
|
134.4
|
48
|
36%
|
|
Stokley, Brandon WR BAL
|
84.4
|
30
|
36%
|
|
Cruz, Victor WR NYG
|
169.2
|
60
|
35%
|
|
Williams, Mike WR TB
|
153.6
|
54
|
35%
|
|
Jones, Donald WR NE
|
68.3
|
24
|
35%
|
|
Ogletree, Kevin WR TB
|
68.5
|
24
|
35%
|
|
Colston, Marques WR NO
|
171.4
|
60
|
35%
|
|
Bryant, Dez WR DAL
|
205.7
|
72
|
35%
|
|
Player
|
Points
|
TD Pts
|
% of Pts
|
|
Rudolph, Kyle TE MIN
|
103.3
|
54
|
52%
|
|
Fasano, Anthony TE KC
|
63.2
|
30
|
47%
|
|
Gronkowski, Rob TE NE
|
143
|
66
|
46%
|
|
Dreessen, Joel TE DEN
|
65.6
|
30
|
46%
|
|
Gates, Antonio TE SD
|
95.8
|
42
|
44%
|
|
Graham, Garrett TE HOU
|
44.3
|
18
|
41%
|
|
Chandler, Scott TE BUF
|
91.1
|
36
|
40%
|
|
Pitta, Dennis TE BAL
|
108.9
|
42
|
39%
|
|
McCoy, Anthony TE SEA
|
47.1
|
18
|
38%
|
|
Hernandez, Aaron TE FA
|
78.8
|
30
|
38%
|
|
Miller, Heath TE PIT
|
129.6
|
48
|
37%
|
|
Walker, Delanie TE TEN
|
50.4
|
18
|
36%
|
|
Clark, Dallas TE BAL
|
67.5
|
24
|
36%
|
|
Graham, Jimmy TE NO
|
152.2
|
54
|
35%
|
|
Davis, Vernon TE SF
|
84.8
|
30
|
35%
|
|
Casey, James TE PHI
|
51.6
|
18
|
35%
|
Players Less
Dependent:
|
Player
|
Points
|
TD Pts
|
% of Pts
|
|
Griffin III, Robert QB WAS
|
354.6
|
122
|
34%
|
|
Bradford, Sam QB STL
|
261.8
|
90
|
34%
|
|
Cutler, Jay QB CHI
|
222.95
|
76
|
34%
|
|
Newton, Cam QB CAR
|
367.55
|
124
|
34%
|
|
Schaub, Matt QB HOU
|
263.5
|
88
|
33%
|
|
Gabbert, Blaine QB JAC
|
112.7
|
36
|
32%
|
|
Sanchez, Mark QB NYJ
|
162.95
|
52
|
32%
|
|
Stafford, Matthew QB DET
|
330.95
|
104
|
31%
|
|
Vick, Michael QB PHI
|
185.3
|
54
|
29%
|
|
Locker, Jake QB TEN
|
161.9
|
46
|
28%
|
|
Weeden, Brandon QB CLE
|
202.35
|
56
|
28%
|
|
Foles, Nick QB PHI
|
109.15
|
30
|
27%
|
|
Tannehill, Ryan QB MIA
|
220.1
|
60
|
27%
|
|
Cassel, Matt QB MIN
|
110.3
|
30
|
27%
|
|
Player
|
Points
|
TD Pts
|
% of Pts
|
|
McCoy, LeSean RB PHI
|
145.3
|
30
|
21%
|
|
Johnson, Chris RB TEN
|
175.5
|
36
|
21%
|
|
Forte, Matt RB CHI
|
177.4
|
36
|
20%
|
|
Stewart, Jonathan RB CAR
|
61.3
|
12
|
20%
|
|
Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAC
|
62
|
12
|
19%
|
|
Charles, Jamaal RB KC
|
204.5
|
36
|
18%
|
|
Bell, Joique RB DET
|
103.9
|
18
|
17%
|
|
Redman, Isaac RB PIT
|
71.4
|
12
|
17%
|
|
McFadden, Darren RB OAK
|
110.5
|
18
|
16%
|
|
Ballard, Vick RB IND
|
114.6
|
18
|
16%
|
|
Jackson, Steven RB ATL
|
160.3
|
24
|
15%
|
|
Dwyer, Jonathan RB PIT
|
80.9
|
12
|
15%
|
|
Rodgers, Jacquizz RB ATL
|
88.4
|
12
|
14%
|
|
Thomas, Pierre RB NO
|
94.7
|
12
|
13%
|
|
Pierce, Bernard RB BAL
|
63.9
|
6
|
9%
|
|
Reece, Marcel RB OAK
|
82.7
|
6
|
7%
|
|
Mathews, Ryan RB SD
|
97.9
|
6
|
6%
|
|
Richardson, Daryl RB STL
|
59.8
|
0
|
0%
|
|
Player
|
Points
|
TD Pts
|
% of Pts
|
|
Welker, Wes WR DEN
|
171.4
|
36
|
21%
|
|
Lloyd, Brandon WR NE
|
115.1
|
24
|
21%
|
|
Nicks, Hakeem WR NYG
|
87.2
|
18
|
21%
|
|
Boldin, Anquan WR SF
|
116.4
|
24
|
21%
|
|
Givens, Chris WR STL
|
89
|
18
|
20%
|
|
Walter, Kevin WR TEN
|
63.8
|
12
|
19%
|
|
Bowe, Dwayne WR KC
|
96.1
|
18
|
19%
|
|
Avery, Donnie WR KC
|
97
|
18
|
19%
|
|
Wayne, Reggie WR IND
|
163
|
30
|
18%
|
|
Morgan, Josh WR WAS
|
65.5
|
12
|
18%
|
|
Floyd, Michael WR ARI
|
66.2
|
12
|
18%
|
|
Hixon, Domenik WR CAR
|
68.7
|
12
|
17%
|
|
Smith, Steve WR CAR
|
142.1
|
24
|
17%
|
|
Jackson, DeSean WR PHI
|
81.3
|
12
|
15%
|
|
Johnson, Calvin WR DET
|
220.4
|
30
|
14%
|
|
Kerley, Jeremy WR NYJ
|
89.5
|
12
|
13%
|
|
Johnson, Andre WR HOU
|
183.8
|
24
|
13%
|
|
Sanders, Emmanuel WR PIT
|
65
|
6
|
9%
|
|
Bess, Davone WR CLE
|
83.8
|
6
|
7%
|
|
Hartline, Brian WR MIA
|
112.3
|
6
|
5%
|
|
Avant, Jason WR PHI
|
64.8
|
0
|
0%
|
|
Player
|
Points
|
TD Pts
|
% of Pts
|
|
Allen, Dwayne TE IND
|
70.6
|
18
|
25%
|
|
Pettigrew, Brandon TE DET
|
70.7
|
18
|
25%
|
|
Myers, Brandon TE NYG
|
104.6
|
24
|
23%
|
|
Tamme, Jacob TE DEN
|
67.5
|
12
|
18%
|
|
Finley, Jermichael TE GB
|
76.7
|
12
|
16%
|
|
Witten, Jason TE DAL
|
121.9
|
18
|
15%
|
|
Moeaki, Tony TE KC
|
51.3
|
6
|
12%
|
|
Scheffler, Tony TE DET
|
56.4
|
6
|
11%
|
|
Celek, Brent TE PHI
|
72.4
|
6
|
8%
|
|
Housler, Rob TE ARI
|
41.7
|
0
|
0%
|
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