Hello and welcome to Market Fantasy!
Last year, in my 14 team league, I was riding high and
feeling confident as the playoffs opened. Because of the size of the league and
small benches, that league can be incredibly tough to be consistently good in.
After agonizing over my roster, weighing the matchups, and looking at the
rankings, I hit “submit” on my roster and looked forward to Sunday with
confidence. The only real decision I had was who to play at QB. Did I go with
Dalton, the steady, but unspectacular option who got me there, or did I try to
use Big Ben in a cushy matchup but just coming back from injury? Choosing to
err on the side of caution, I opted for Dalton.
As the early games concluded, I had opened up a 70 point
lead. I was just about done and my opponent had three guys left. Unfortunately
two of those guys turned out to be Marshawn Lynch and the Seahawks defense.
Those two dropped about 80 points on me. I ended up losing something like
137-135. The kicker was Ben outscored Dalton by about 10 points. If I would
have gambled, I move forward. Instead, I played it safe and lost. Season over.
My best shot at winning that league in a few years gone.
The other day I introduced my consistency ranks. I value
consistency in my players because it makes setting my lineup easier. If I can
reasonable expect what kind of performance I can get from someone, I’ll have a
better idea of what my team will do that week. Because of this, I’m more
inclined to start my most consistent players. The downside of this, however, is
that a lot of times I can miss out on a huge performance from an up and down
player, and like the example above, it can be incredibly costly.
What I have today are a list of both boom and bust players.
The boom guys are the guys who can be a gamble, but more often than not are
worth it. The busts are players whose year-end stat line looks inflated thanks
to a couple big weeks, but who rarely achieve those heights on a week to week
basis. Some of these ranks can be attributed to guys like Colin Kaepernick who
took over a role and therefore saw a boost in their scoring output. The way the
list works is I took the average point total for each player. What I have
listed are the players who beat or failed to hit their average score at least
eight weeks, or half of a regular season. For these purposes, I cut the QB list
off at an average of 10 points per week, the WR, RB, TE, and DST scores at an
average of 4 points per week.
Click through, enjoy, and let me know what you think!
Thanks for reading!
BOOM!
|
Player
|
Average
|
Games Above Average
|
|
Philip Rivers
|
15.23
|
11
|
|
Peyton Manning
|
22.22
|
10
|
|
Matt Ryan
|
21.21
|
9
|
|
Matthew Stafford
|
21.16
|
9
|
|
Andy Dalton
|
17.68
|
9
|
|
Josh Freeman
|
18.06
|
9
|
|
Ryan Tannehill
|
11.93
|
9
|
|
Carson Palmer
|
19.33
|
9
|
|
Brandon Weeden
|
15.77
|
9
|
|
Cam Newton
|
16.63
|
9
|
|
Andrew Luck
|
20.10
|
8
|
|
Robert Griffin III
|
24.41
|
8
|
|
Aaron Rodgers
|
22.78
|
8
|
|
Mark Sanchez
|
10.89
|
8
|
|
Eli Manning
|
16.81
|
8
|
|
Player
|
Average
|
Games Above Average
|
|
Trent Richardson
|
13.58
|
10
|
|
Arian Foster
|
15.43
|
10
|
|
CJ Spiller
|
11.96
|
9
|
|
Frank Gore
|
12.41
|
9
|
|
Stevan Ridley
|
12.71
|
9
|
|
Ray Rice
|
13.88
|
9
|
|
Mark Ingram
|
5.82
|
8
|
|
Adrian Peterson
|
17.09
|
8
|
|
BenJarvus
Green-Ellis
|
9.19
|
8
|
|
Matt Forte
|
10.16
|
8
|
|
Marshawn Lynch
|
13.98
|
8
|
|
Joique Bell
|
5.62
|
8
|
|
LeSean McCoy
|
10.36
|
8
|
|
Player
|
Average
|
Games Above Average
|
|
Demaryius Thomas
|
11.64
|
9
|
|
Wes Welker
|
10.84
|
8
|
|
Lance Moore
|
8.74
|
8
|
|
James Jones
|
10.23
|
8
|
|
Mike Williams
|
9.60
|
8
|
|
Roddy White
|
11.07
|
8
|
|
Eric Decker
|
11.53
|
8
|
|
Julio Jones
|
10.30
|
8
|
|
Player
|
Average
|
Games Above Average
|
||
|
Jermichael Finley
|
4.36
|
8
|
||
|
Kyle Rudolph
|
7.95
|
8
|
||
|
Player
|
Average
|
Games Above Average
|
||
|
Jacksonville
Jaguars
|
2.87
|
8
|
||
|
Oakland Raiders
|
2.93
|
8
|
||
|
Miami Dolphins
|
3.75
|
8
|
||
|
Buffalo Bills
|
5.13
|
8
|
||
BUST!
|
Player
|
Average
|
Games Below Average
|
|
Sam Bradford
|
17.46
|
10
|
|
Russell Wilson
|
18.58
|
9
|
|
Matt Schaub
|
15.18
|
9
|
|
Tom Brady
|
25.31
|
9
|
|
Tony Romo
|
20.79
|
9
|
|
Drew Brees
|
27.36
|
9
|
|
Ryan Fitzpatrick
|
17.16
|
9
|
|
Joe Flacco
|
17.03
|
9
|
|
Christian Ponder
|
14.86
|
9
|
|
Andrew Luck
|
20.10
|
8
|
|
Aaron Rodgers
|
22.78
|
8
|
|
Eli Manning
|
16.81
|
8
|
|
Jay Cutler
|
16.75
|
8
|
|
Player
|
Average
|
Games Below Average
|
|
Mike Tolbert
|
5.44
|
12
|
|
Shonn Greene
|
8.34
|
12
|
|
LaRod
Stephens-Howling
|
4.02
|
10
|
|
Bernard Pierce
|
4.26
|
10
|
|
Isaac Redman
|
5.95
|
10
|
|
Michael Bush
|
6.11
|
10
|
|
DeAngelo Williams
|
7.28
|
10
|
|
Reggie Bush
|
9.86
|
10
|
|
Doug Martin
|
16.54
|
10
|
|
Marcel Reece
|
4.62
|
9
|
|
David Wilson
|
4.63
|
9
|
|
Danny Woodhead
|
5.38
|
9
|
|
Vick Ballard
|
5.48
|
9
|
|
Jacquizz Rodgers
|
5.53
|
9
|
|
Bilal Powell
|
5.84
|
9
|
|
Michael Turner
|
8.82
|
9
|
|
Chris Johnson
|
9.74
|
9
|
|
Steven Jackson
|
10.02
|
9
|
|
Jamaal Charles
|
12.62
|
9
|
|
Alfred Morris
|
15.39
|
9
|
|
Ben Tate
|
4.07
|
8
|
|
Kendall Hunter
|
5.01
|
8
|
|
Joique Bell
|
5.62
|
8
|
|
Mark Ingram
|
5.82
|
8
|
|
Felix Jones
|
6.27
|
8
|
|
Ahmad Bradshaw
|
10.29
|
8
|
|
Marshawn Lynch
|
13.98
|
8
|
|
Adrian Peterson
|
17.09
|
8
|
|
Player
|
Average
|
Games Below Average
|
|
Michael Floyd
|
4.87
|
11
|
|
Josh Gordon
|
5.78
|
11
|
|
Steve Smith
|
6.60
|
11
|
|
Andre Roberts
|
6.65
|
11
|
|
Michael Crabtree
|
9.72
|
11
|
|
Marques Colston
|
10.40
|
11
|
|
Jason Avant
|
4.63
|
10
|
|
Donnie Avery
|
5.87
|
10
|
|
Larry Fitzgerald
|
6.49
|
10
|
|
Santana Moss
|
6.51
|
10
|
|
Torrey Smith
|
7.84
|
10
|
|
Reggie Wayne
|
9.75
|
10
|
|
Dez Bryant
|
11.42
|
10
|
|
Emmanuel Sanders
|
4.60
|
9
|
|
Kenny Britt
|
4.64
|
9
|
|
Rod Streater
|
4.81
|
9
|
|
Brandon Stokley
|
5.39
|
9
|
|
Golden Tate
|
7.41
|
9
|
|
Sidney Rice
|
7.83
|
9
|
|
Justin Blackmon
|
7.92
|
9
|
|
TY Hilton
|
8.13
|
9
|
|
Steve Johnson
|
8.23
|
9
|
|
Jeremy Maclin
|
9.12
|
9
|
|
Brandon Marshall
|
10.16
|
9
|
|
Vincent Jackson
|
11.09
|
9
|
|
Andre Johnson
|
11.49
|
9
|
|
Calvin Johnson
|
11.90
|
9
|
|
AJ Green
|
12.80
|
9
|
|
Leonard Hankerson
|
4.85
|
8
|
|
Brandon Gibson
|
7.08
|
8
|
|
Mike Williams
|
9.60
|
8
|
|
Julio Jones
|
10.30
|
8
|
|
Wes Welker
|
10.84
|
8
|
|
Roddy White
|
11.07
|
8
|
|
Eric Decker
|
11.53
|
8
|
|
Player
|
Average
|
Games Below Average
|
||
|
Brandon Myers
|
6.54
|
12
|
||
|
Greg Olsen
|
6.58
|
12
|
||
|
Lance Kendricks
|
4.74
|
11
|
||
|
Vernon Davis
|
4.77
|
11
|
||
|
Martellus Bennett
|
5.23
|
11
|
||
|
Jason Witten
|
6.49
|
11
|
||
|
Marcedes Lewis
|
4.60
|
10
|
||
|
Brent Celek
|
4.96
|
10
|
||
|
Heath Miller
|
8.04
|
10
|
||
|
Tony Gonzalez
|
8.25
|
10
|
||
|
Antonio Gates
|
3.99
|
9
|
||
|
Ben Watson
|
4.26
|
9
|
||
|
Scott Chandler
|
6.21
|
9
|
||
|
Dennis Pitta
|
6.49
|
9
|
||
|
Jimmy Graham
|
10.15
|
9
|
||
|
Jermichael Finley
|
4.36
|
8
|
||
|
Jeff Cumberland
|
4.49
|
8
|
||
|
Joel Dreessen
|
4.69
|
8
|
||
|
Dallas Clark
|
5.19
|
8
|
||
|
Jermaine Gresham
|
5.71
|
8
|
||
|
Jared Cook
|
5.87
|
8
|
||
|
Owen Daniels
|
7.17
|
8
|
||
|
Player
|
Average
|
Games Below Average
|
|
Carolina Panthers
|
4.56
|
11
|
|
San Francisco 49ers
|
5.53
|
11
|
|
Houston Texans
|
5.69
|
11
|
|
New England
Patriots
|
7.00
|
11
|
|
Chicago Bears
|
8.38
|
11
|
|
Dallas Cowboys
|
5.00
|
10
|
|
Washington Redskins
|
5.20
|
10
|
|
Cleveland Browns
|
5.31
|
10
|
|
Minnesota Vikings
|
5.44
|
10
|
|
Arizona Cardinals
|
5.69
|
10
|
|
New York Jets
|
5.69
|
10
|
|
San Diego Chargers
|
6.38
|
10
|
|
Atlanta Falcons
|
4.06
|
9
|
|
Green Bay Packers
|
4.94
|
9
|
|
New Orleans Saints
|
5.00
|
9
|
|
St Louis Rams
|
5.00
|
9
|
|
Seattle Seahawks
|
5.75
|
9
|
|
Baltimore Ravens
|
5.88
|
9
|
|
Cincinnati Bengals
|
6.56
|
9
|
|
Tennessee Titans
|
7.07
|
9
|
|
Denver Broncos
|
7.88
|
9
|
|
Buffalo Bills
|
5.13
|
8
|
|
Indianapolis Colts
|
5.29
|
8
|
|
New York Giants
|
5.73
|
8
|
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