Saturday, December 7, 2013

Market Fantasy #55 - Break on Through! Playoff Edition

Hello and welcome to Market Fantasy!

Earlier in the year, I did a piece on breakout games and what they meant for individual players and more importantly, your teams. You can find that here, along with a rousing discussion of the gambler’s fallacy. Riveting stuff. The idea here is to take a look at a players’ highest scoring week and put it into context with the rest of their season. Here at Market Fantasy we’re (I’m) all about predictability and not getting suckered into chasing numbers that frankly won’t be there. The charts below are laid out as follows:

·         Average points per game: Straightforward, this is the players’ average points per game
·         Max: This is the players’ single highest scoring week
·         Max week: The week the player scored their high score
·         Next week: The players’ score for the game after their high score
·         Max Wk - Next Wk: The difference between the players’ score from their high week and their score from the next game.
·         Max % Over Average: The percentage the players’ high score is over their average weekly score

The best way to use these charts is to see how closely a players’ high scoring week compares to what they have done the rest of the season. One of the traps we as fantasy sports players fall into all the time is that of chasing a high score and expecting it to be replicated. We simply can’t afford to do that in the playoffs. Most every player is going to have that one game where they go off. The key is to take that game into perspective and look at how it compares to the rest of the season. Take Matthew Stafford and Carson Palmer.  Both players have a max score in the mid-30’s. The difference is that Stafford is averaging 26.6 points per game compared to Palmer’s 18.1 points per game. Which one would you trust more?

So scroll through and check out the numbers. Use these charts in conjunction with my risers and fallers, TD Percentage and boom and bust charts to help you evaluate your team in a non-biased way and make the best lineup decisions possible. Let me know what you think, good luck in the playoffs, and most importantly – thanks for reading!
Player
Average
Max
Max Week
Next Week
Max Wk - Next Wk.
Max % over Average
Smith, Geno QB NYJ
11
31.6
3
10.3
21.3
187.27%
Manning, Eli QB NYG
15.4
41.8
1
15.5
26.3
171.43%
Foles, Nick QB PHI
23.9
64.6
9
28.9
35.7
170.29%
Romo, Tony QB DAL
22.7
57.9
5
10.8
47.1
155.07%
Brady, Tom QB NE
20.1
46.3
9
16.1
30.2
130.35%
Kaepernick, Colin QB SF
18.4
41.7
1
5.8
35.9
126.63%
Weeden, Brandon QB CLE
13.8
30.3
13
30.3
0.0
119.57%
Dalton, Andy QB CIN
20.3
44
8
9.7
34.3
116.75%
Keenum, Case QB HOU
18.3
37.6
9
25.3
12.3
105.46%
Roethlisberger, Ben QB PIT
21.4
42.9
11
20.7
22.2
100.47%
Rodgers, Aaron QB GB
24.2
48.2
2
14.2
34.0
99.17%
McGloin, Matt QB OAK
13.1
25.9
11
15.0
10.9
97.71%
Palmer, Carson QB ARI
18.1
33.8
11
27.6
6.2
86.74%
Manning, Peyton QB DEN
35.2
65.5
1
27.3
38.2
86.08%
Clemens, Kellen QB STL
11
20.1
10
14.7
5.4
82.73%
Luck, Andrew QB IND
20.8
36
7
30.8
5.2
73.08%
Griffin III, Robert QB WAS
20
33.6
10
27.0
6.6
68.00%
Rivers, Philip QB SD
24.4
40.9
2
13.4
27.5
67.62%
Henne, Chad QB JAC
10.7
17.8
13
17.8
0.0
66.36%
Flacco, Joe QB BAL
16.5
27.3
6
16.0
11.3
65.45%
Wilson, Russell QB SEA
23.1
38.1
13
38.1
0.0
64.94%
Brees, Drew QB NO
28.6
46.3
8
26.3
20.0
61.89%
Fitzpatrick, Ryan QB TEN
18.9
30.4
12
17.4
13.0
60.85%
Ponder, Christian QB MIN
13.5
21.7
3
0.0
21.7
60.74%
Cutler, Jay QB CHI
18.9
30
5
24.5
5.5
58.73%
Newton, Cam QB CAR
23.2
36.7
6
16.8
19.9
58.19%
Ryan, Matt QB ATL
21
31.8
4
25.8
6.0
51.43%
Tannehill, Ryan QB MIA
18.8
28.4
13
28.4
0.0
51.06%
Smith, Alex QB KC
19.6
29.2
4
8.8
20.4
48.98%
McCown, Josh QB CHI
20
29.2
13
29.2
0.0
46.00%
Pryor, Terrelle QB OAK
17.3
24.9
1
10.0
14.9
43.93%
Manuel, EJ QB BUF
16
22.7
11
20.7
2.0
41.88%
Glennon, Mike QB TB
16.2
22.9
6
21.5
1.4
41.36%
Stafford, Matthew QB DET
26.6
35.3
7
33.7
1.6
32.71%
Player
Average
Max
Max Week
Next Week
Max Wk - Next Wk.
Max % over Average
Rainey, Bobby RB TB
5.6
39.7
11
3.5
36.2
608.93%
Ingram, Mark RB NO
5.5
25
10
2.9
22.1
354.55%
Starks, James RB GB
6.6
25.8
2
5.5
20.3
290.91%
Helu, Roy RB WAS
5.9
22.6
7
2.5
20.1
283.05%
Tate, Ben RB HOU
8.3
31.2
13
31.2
0
275.90%
Jacobs, Brandon RB NYG
7.2
26.4
6
0
26.4
266.67%
Sproles, Darren RB NO
8
27.2
4
4.1
23.1
240.00%
Ivory, Chris RB NYJ
6.9
22.9
9
15.8
7.1
231.88%
Ball, Montee RB DEN
4.9
16.1
11
3.7
12.4
228.57%
Ellington, Andre RB ARI
8.3
27.2
8
7.3
19.9
227.71%
Ogbonnaya, Chris RB CLE
4.7
14.5
6
1.5
13
208.51%
Brown, Donald RB IND
7
21.4
11
0.1
21.3
205.71%
McGahee, Willis RB CLE
4.6
13.2
5
3.9
9.3
186.96%
Spiller, C.J. RB BUF
8.7
24.7
13
24.7
0
183.91%
Rice, Ray RB BAL
8.4
23.8
11
3
20.8
183.33%
Stacy, Zac RB STL
11.7
32.8
9
12.8
20
180.34%
Rodgers, Jacquizz RB ATL
6.5
18.2
7
1.9
16.3
180.00%
Jennings, Rashad RB OAK
9.6
26.6
9
10.7
15.9
177.08%
Powell, Bilal RB NYJ
6.8
18.8
3
10.8
8
176.47%
Johnson, Chris RB TEN
12.4
34
9
5.3
28.7
174.19%
Blount, LeGarrette RB NE
4.6
12.4
4
3.1
9.3
169.57%
Ridley, Stevan RB NE
10.1
25.4
9
8.8
16.6
151.49%
Thomas, Pierre RB NO
9.4
23.1
10
8.4
14.7
145.74%
Tolbert, Mike RB CAR
6.8
16.7
6
9.6
7.1
145.59%
Jackson, Steven RB ATL
8.8
20.4
13
20.4
0
131.82%
Richardson, Trent RB IND
5.7
12.6
4
5.6
7
121.05%
Bell, Joique RB DET
9.6
21.2
1
7.2
14
120.83%
Murray, DeMarco RB DAL
14.3
31.3
3
9.2
22.1
118.88%
Moreno, Knowshon RB DEN
16.6
36
12
15
21
116.87%
Woodhead, Danny RB SD
9.6
20.6
4
11.5
9.1
114.58%
Bernard, Giovani RB CIN
10.6
22.4
9
15.5
6.9
111.32%
McFadden, Darren RB OAK
9.6
19.8
8
1.5
18.3
106.25%
Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAC
10
20.4
12
14.4
6
104.00%
Mendenhall, Rashard RB ARI
7.6
15.4
2
4.1
11.3
102.63%
Miller, Lamar RB MIA
6.9
13.9
9
1.1
12.8
101.45%
Hillis, Peyton RB NYG
7
14.1
7
8.5
5.6
101.43%
Gore, Frank RB SF
12.1
24.3
4
14.1
10.2
100.83%
Bolden, Brandon RB NE
6.5
12.9
12
2
10.9
98.46%
Mathews, Ryan RB SD
10.1
20
7
3.4
16.6
98.02%
Lacy, Eddie RB GB
13.2
26
9
8.4
17.6
96.97%
Green-Ellis, BenJarvus RB CIN
6.9
13.5
13
13.5
0
95.65%
Lynch, Marshawn RB SEA
16.1
31.5
2
6.9
24.6
95.65%
Bush, Reggie RB DET
15.1
28.1
1
6.9
21.2
86.09%
Williams, DeAngelo RB CAR
8.2
15
3
6.9
8.1
82.93%
Jackson, Fred RB BUF
11.7
21.3
5
4.8
16.5
82.05%
Forte, Matt RB CHI
16.1
28.9
7
26.9
2
79.50%
McCoy, LeSean RB PHI
17.3
29.9
1
19.7
10.2
72.83%
Morris, Alfred RB WAS
12.3
21.1
9
16.9
4.2
71.54%
Charles, Jamaal RB KC
17.9
30.7
12
18
12.7
71.51%
Peterson, Adrian RB MIN
18
29.1
1
11.7
17.4
61.67%
Bell, Le'Veon RB PIT
12.7
20.4
4
5.6
14.8
60.63%
Vereen, Shane RB NE
12.2
18.9
1
0
18.9
54.92%
Brown, Andre RB NYG
16.7
20.9
10
9.3
11.6
25.15%
Player
Average
Max
Max Week
Next Week
Max Wk - Next Wk.
Max % over Average
Jones, Marvin WR CIN
8.1
39.2
8
6.6
32.6
383.95%
Austin, Tavon WR STL
7.3
35.2
10
16.4
18.8
382.19%
Stills, Kenny WR NO
6.2
28.3
8
3.5
24.8
356.45%
Holmes, Santonio WR NYJ
6.2
26.4
3
2.5
23.9
325.81%
Williams, Terrance WR DAL
7.2
28.3
5
8.7
19.6
293.06%
Underwood, Tiquan WR TB
6.7
25.8
12
5.1
20.7
285.07%
Cooper, Riley WR PHI
9.7
36.7
9
25.2
11.5
278.35%
Decker, Eric WR DEN
12.5
46.4
13
46.4
0
271.20%
Washington, Nate WR TEN
6.9
25.5
4
3
22.5
269.57%
Dobson, Aaron WR NE
7.6
28
9
3.8
24.2
268.42%
White, Roddy WR ATL
4.7
17.3
13
17.3
0
268.09%
Johnson, Andre WR HOU
13.4
47.9
9
15.7
32.2
257.46%
Hankerson, Leonard WR WAS
5.6
20
1
3.5
16.5
257.14%
Boldin, Anquan WR SF
9.9
33.8
1
0.7
33.1
241.41%
Jennings, Greg WR MIN
6.3
21.2
4
3.4
17.8
236.51%
Royal, Eddie WR SD
8.1
27
2
3.4
23.6
233.33%
Boykin, Jarrett WR GB
5.8
19.3
7
8.9
10.4
232.76%
Hopkins, DeAndre WR HOU
6.3
20.7
2
6
14.7
228.57%
Hilton, T.Y. WR IND
10.1
33.1
9
16
17.1
227.72%
Jones, Jacoby WR BAL
5.9
19.3
12
5.3
14
227.12%
Cotchery, Jerricho WR PIT
8.5
27.6
9
9.1
18.5
224.71%
Thompkins, Kenbrell WR NE
6.7
21.7
4
1.6
20.1
223.88%
Amendola, Danny WR NE
6.7
21.2
9
4.5
16.7
216.42%
Avery, Donnie WR KC
5.5
17.1
3
2.3
14.8
210.91%
Floyd, Michael WR ARI
9.8
30.3
11
13.4
16.9
209.18%
Cruz, Victor WR NYG
10.8
32.8
1
14.8
18
203.70%
Brown, Marlon WR BAL
6.4
19.4
9
1
18.4
203.13%
Simpson, Jerome WR MIN
5.7
17
1
4.9
12.1
198.25%
Jeffery, Alshon WR CHI
14.8
43.9
13
43.9
0
196.62%
Edelman, Julian WR NE
8.8
26
12
13.1
12.9
195.45%
Colston, Marques WR NO
6.8
19.7
10
8
11.7
189.71%
Goodwin, Marquise WR BUF
5.5
15.8
11
0
15.8
187.27%
LaFell, Brandon WR CAR
7.2
20.6
6
3.5
17.1
186.11%
Randle, Rueben WR NYG
7.6
21.6
5
13.5
8.1
184.21%
Woods, Robert WR BUF
5.4
15.3
4
6.4
8.9
183.33%
Brown, Antonio WR PIT
13.3
36.6
3
9.8
26.8
175.19%
Brown, Mike WR JAC
5.5
15
7
10.3
4.7
172.73%
Jones, James WR GB
8
21.7
5
1
20.7
171.25%
Tate, Golden WR SEA
7.9
21.3
8
2.9
18.4
169.62%
Johnson, Steve WR BUF
7.5
20.1
2
10.6
9.5
168.00%
Douglas, Harry WR ATL
9
23.9
7
15.1
8.8
165.56%
Nicks, Hakeem WR NYG
6.5
17.2
5
7
10.2
164.62%
Smith, Torrey WR BAL
10.6
27.6
4
15.1
12.5
160.38%
Wallace, Mike WR MIA
8.6
21.7
12
14.2
7.5
152.33%
Hartline, Brian WR MIA
8.7
21.7
13
21.7
0
149.43%
Jackson, Vincent WR TB
11.9
28.8
7
7.9
20.9
142.02%
Moore, Denarius WR OAK
9
21.4
3
6.6
14.8
137.78%
Ginn, Ted WR CAR
6
14.2
3
7.8
6.4
136.67%
Wright, Kendall WR TEN
8.2
19.3
12
7.7
11.6
135.37%
Streater, Rod WR OAK
6.5
15.2
11
7.3
7.9
133.85%
Gordon, Josh WR CLE
19.6
45.1
13
45.1
0
130.10%
Jackson, DeSean WR PHI
13.3
30.3
2
6.2
24.1
127.82%
Shorts, Cecil WR JAC
7.6
17.3
3
6.1
11.2
127.63%
Sanders, Emmanuel WR PIT
7.4
16.8
8
9.8
7
127.03%
Green, A.J. WR CIN
14.7
33.2
1
4.1
29.1
125.85%
Thomas, Demaryius WR DEN
15
33.1
1
5.2
27.9
120.67%
Garcon, Pierre WR WAS
10.6
23.3
2
8.3
15
119.81%
Nelson, Jordy WR GB
12.5
27.3
8
6.7
20.6
118.40%
Bryant, Dez WR DAL
12.6
27.1
5
3.6
23.5
115.08%
Johnson, Calvin WR DET
20.8
43.9
8
20.3
23.6
111.06%
Allen, Keenan WR SD
10.5
21.8
9
4.1
17.7
107.62%
Marshall, Brandon WR CHI
14.2
28.9
10
4.2
24.7
103.52%
Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI
10.3
20
1
3.3
16.7
94.17%
Welker, Wes WR DEN
10.3
19.6
4
10.9
8.7
90.29%
Smith, Steve WR CAR
6.8
12.9
7
4.2
8.7
89.71%
Durham, Kris WR DET
4.8
9
5
8.3
0.7
87.50%
Bowe, Dwayne WR KC
6.4
11.8
4
3.5
8.3
84.38%
Baldwin, Doug WR SEA
7.5
13.7
13
13.7
0
82.67%
Burleson, Nate WR DET
8.1
14.6
3
0
14.6
80.25%
Player
Average
Max
Max Week
Next Week
Max Wk - Next Wk.
Max % over Average
Fauria, Joseph TE DET
4.1
21.4
6
1.5
19.9
421.95%
Ertz, Zach TE PHI
4.4
18.8
13
18.8
0
327.27%
Cook, Jared TE STL
6.7
27.1
1
1
26.1
304.48%
Green, Ladarius TE SD
3.9
14
12
10.5
3.5
258.97%
Gonzalez, Tony TE ATL
8.4
29.9
4
9.7
20.2
255.95%
Graham, Garrett TE HOU
6
20.6
11
3.2
17.4
243.33%
Cumberland, Jeff TE NYJ
4.3
13.9
5
5.9
8
223.26%
Clark, Dallas TE BAL
4.4
14.1
6
6.9
7.2
220.45%
Winslow, Kellen TE NYJ
4.6
13.9
1
1.6
12.3
202.17%
Gates, Antonio TE SD
7.7
22.6
4
7.4
15.2
193.51%
Davis, Vernon TE SF
12.1
35
6
6.2
28.8
189.26%
Chandler, Scott TE BUF
4.9
13.9
3
2.8
11.1
183.67%
Wright, Timothy TE TB
4.2
11.8
9
1.9
9.9
180.95%
Bennett, Martellus TE CHI
7
19.6
2
1
18.6
180.00%
Reed, Jordan TE WAS
8.1
22.4
7
9
13.4
176.54%
Cameron, Jordan TE CLE
9.1
24.6
3
15.1
9.5
170.33%
Myers, Brandon TE NYG
4.8
12.6
1
7.4
5.2
162.50%
Clay, Charles TE MIA
7.7
20
2
4
16
159.74%
Miller, Zach TE SEA
5.7
14.6
13
14.6
0
156.14%
Rudolph, Kyle TE MIN
6.2
15.7
6
2.7
13
153.23%
Celek, Brent TE PHI
4.7
11.6
1
1.8
9.8
146.81%
Witten, Jason TE DAL
8.7
21.1
5
2.7
18.4
142.53%
Walker, Delanie TE TEN
6.3
15.1
11
4.6
10.5
139.68%
Thomas, Julius TE DEN
12.5
27.2
5
8.2
19
117.60%
Fasano, Anthony TE KC
4.5
9.7
11
8.1
1.6
115.56%
Gresham, Jermaine TE CIN
4.1
8.7
11
0
8.7
112.20%
Fleener, Coby TE IND
7.1
13.7
4
1.5
12.2
92.96%
Olsen, Greg TE CAR
7.6
14.4
2
5.4
9
89.47%
Graham, Jimmy TE NO
15.9
28.9
2
28.4
0.5
81.76%
Miller, Heath TE PIT
5.1
8.6
13
8.6
0
68.63%
Gronkowski, Rob TE NE
14.8
23.3
9
11.9
11.4
57.43%
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