Hello and Welcome to Market Fantasy!
In the beginning of the year, I did a piece on who finished the year strong compared to their start. I was hoping to identify some sleepers and guys who were poised for a breakout. Now that the playoffs are here in the majority of leagues, I want to take a look back at the fantasy football regular season and try to identify players who are finishing strong. You’ve all heard the old adage of start your studs. The real question is just who are your studs? In the preseason, the answer to questions like Ray Rice or Zac Stacy or Wes Welker or Alshon Jeffery would have been completely obvious. Asking them would’ve probably gotten you laughed out of the room in fact. Now that we are 13 weeks into the NFL season, however, it’s worth noting who has come on strong and should be in position to power your team through to victory.
To come up with this analysis, what I did was take players’ average scores for weeks 1-8. I then compared them to the players’ average score for weeks 9-13 and calculated the percentage change between the two. This will help us get an idea of who is overcoming a slow start or who is cooling off. Because we’re using average points per game, that helps smooth out games missed due to injury or bye weeks. Below you will find the players for each position who are at least 25% above or 25% below their weeks 1-8 average for during weeks 9-13. Well this *could* show a breakout, other times a big game from an otherwise bit player could skew the rankings (looking at you Tiquan Underwood).
There are a couple things to keep in mind when using the charts below. Consider the players’ current role. A former backup forced into a starter’s job will have a big jump. The opposite is also true for guys who were injury fill ins early in the year but now are relegated to a backup role. For some players, however, like Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, MJD, Chris Johnson, Eric Decker, or Antonio Brown, these are legit starters who are now playing at a higher level. Lastly, there are the true breakouts. Players like Alshon Jeffery, Zac Stacy and Nick Foles are going through a true breakout right now. Those are guys who should never leave your lineup at this point and the kind of guys who will win you a championship.
Scroll through, consider the numbers and decide for yourself who you feel you can trust the rest of the way, and who it might be time to give up on. I’d love to hear your feedback on some of the players listed. Thanks for reading and good luck in your playoffs!
QB Risers:
| |||||||
Player
|
Wk 1-8
|
Wk 9-13
|
% Change
| ||||
Foles, Nick QB PHI
|
17.43
|
36.45
|
109.18%
| ||||
Brady, Tom QB NE
|
14.81
|
30.75
|
107.59%
| ||||
Palmer, Carson QB ARI
|
13.94
|
26.53
|
90.31%
| ||||
Fitzpatrick, Ryan QB TEN
|
13.10
|
23.30
|
77.86%
| ||||
Roethlisberger, Ben QB PIT
|
16.87
|
27.64
|
63.83%
| ||||
Weeden, Brandon QB CLE
|
13.60
|
21.45
|
57.72%
| ||||
Wilson, Russell QB SEA
|
20.64
|
28.13
|
36.28%
| ||||
Manuel, EJ QB BUF
|
14.50
|
18.43
|
27.13%
| ||||
QB Fallers:
| |||||||
Player
|
Wk 1-8
|
Wk 9-13
|
% Change
| ||||
Brees, Drew QB NO
|
31.74
|
24.24
|
-23.64%
| ||||
Romo, Tony QB DAL
|
24.98
|
18.23
|
-27.03%
| ||||
Cutler, Jay QB CHI
|
19.66
|
14.00
|
-28.78%
| ||||
Dalton, Andy QB CIN
|
23.08
|
14.78
|
-35.97%
| ||||
Ryan, Matt QB ATL
|
25.20
|
15.08
|
-40.16%
| ||||
Smith, Geno QB NYJ
|
15.21
|
2.73
|
-82.09%
| ||||
RB Risers:
| |||||||
Player
|
Wk 1-8
|
Wk 9-13
|
% Change
| ||||
Rainey, Bobby RB TB
|
1.93
|
15.48
|
700.43%
| ||||
Jennings, Rashad RB OAK
|
3.39
|
18.36
|
442.28%
| ||||
Ingram, Mark RB NO
|
1.55
|
7.04
|
354.19%
| ||||
Ivory, Chris RB NYJ
|
3.71
|
12.38
|
233.17%
| ||||
Ball, Montee RB DEN
|
3.20
|
9.23
|
188.28%
| ||||
Tate, Ben RB HOU
|
5.63
|
12.02
|
113.55%
| ||||
Brown, Donald RB IND
|
5.50
|
10.24
|
86.18%
| ||||
Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAC
|
7.76
|
14.43
|
85.83%
| ||||
Johnson, Chris RB TEN
|
9.33
|
16.82
|
80.31%
| ||||
Spiller, C.J. RB BUF
|
6.74
|
12.05
|
78.71%
| ||||
Stacy, Zac RB STL
|
9.66
|
17.13
|
77.28%
| ||||
Blount, LeGarrette RB NE
|
3.81
|
6.33
|
65.90%
| ||||
Jackson, Steven RB ATL
|
6.77
|
10.08
|
48.97%
| ||||
Bernard, Giovani RB CIN
|
9.30
|
13.28
|
42.74%
| ||||
Thomas, Pierre RB NO
|
8.24
|
11.12
|
34.90%
| ||||
Peterson, Adrian RB MIN
|
16.21
|
20.56
|
26.80%
| ||||
Lacy, Eddie RB GB
|
11.93
|
14.78
|
23.85%
| ||||
RB Fallers:
| |||||||
Player
|
Wk 1-8
|
Wk 9-13
|
% Change
| ||||
Sproles, Darren RB NO
|
10.23
|
6.70
|
-34.53%
| ||||
Tolbert, Mike RB CAR
|
7.97
|
5.08
|
-36.27%
| ||||
Williams, DeAngelo RB CAR
|
9.59
|
5.80
|
-39.49%
| ||||
Powell, Bilal RB NYJ
|
7.90
|
4.53
|
-42.72%
| ||||
Ellington, Andre RB ARI
|
9.51
|
5.23
|
-44.98%
| ||||
Richardson, Trent RB IND
|
7.19
|
3.72
|
-48.23%
| ||||
Helu, Roy RB WAS
|
7.50
|
3.66
|
-51.20%
| ||||
Gore, Frank RB SF
|
14.68
|
7.05
|
-51.96%
| ||||
Rodgers, Jacquizz RB ATL
|
8.69
|
3.48
|
-59.93%
| ||||
Starks, James RB GB
|
10.95
|
3.83
|
-65.07%
| ||||
Hillis, Peyton RB NYG
|
11.30
|
2.60
|
-76.99%
| ||||
McFadden, Darren RB OAK
|
12.30
|
1.40
|
-88.62%
| ||||
WR Risers:
| |||||||
Player
|
Wk 1-8
|
Wk 9-13
|
% Change
| ||||
Underwood, Tiquan WR TB
|
2.65
|
9.64
|
263.77%
| ||||
Austin, Tavon WR STL
|
3.98
|
13.93
|
250.31%
| ||||
White, Roddy WR ATL
|
2.58
|
7.33
|
183.91%
| ||||
Cooper, Riley WR PHI
|
6.63
|
17.60
|
165.52%
| ||||
Dobson, Aaron WR NE
|
6.34
|
15.90
|
150.68%
| ||||
Floyd, Michael WR ARI
|
6.91
|
15.68
|
126.76%
| ||||
Baldwin, Doug WR SEA
|
5.44
|
11.78
|
116.55%
| ||||
Johnson, Andre WR HOU
|
9.20
|
19.38
|
110.65%
| ||||
Goodwin, Marquise WR BUF
|
4.90
|
9.70
|
97.96%
| ||||
Gordon, Josh WR CLE
|
14.57
|
27.18
|
86.56%
| ||||
Cotchery, Jerricho WR PIT
|
7.97
|
13.53
|
69.77%
| ||||
Bowe, Dwayne WR KC
|
5.28
|
8.78
|
66.35%
| ||||
Amendola, Danny WR NE
|
5.13
|
8.20
|
60.00%
| ||||
Burleson, Nate WR DET
|
8.97
|
13.70
|
52.79%
| ||||
Colston, Marques WR NO
|
5.74
|
8.60
|
49.75%
| ||||
Hilton, T.Y. WR IND
|
8.54
|
12.38
|
44.92%
| ||||
Wright, Kendall WR TEN
|
7.04
|
9.94
|
41.14%
| ||||
Streater, Rod WR OAK
|
5.54
|
7.72
|
39.28%
| ||||
Edelman, Julian WR NE
|
7.79
|
10.73
|
37.72%
| ||||
Brown, Antonio WR PIT
|
11.79
|
15.46
|
31.18%
| ||||
Decker, Eric WR DEN
|
11.36
|
14.80
|
30.25%
| ||||
Jeffery, Alshon WR CHI
|
13.13
|
17.10
|
30.25%
| ||||
Thomas, Demaryius WR DEN
|
13.69
|
17.65
|
28.95%
| ||||
Wallace, Mike WR MIA
|
7.69
|
9.90
|
28.81%
| ||||
WR Fallers:
| |||||||
Player
|
Wk 1-8
|
Wk 9-13
|
% Change
| ||||
Royal, Eddie WR SD
|
8.99
|
6.48
|
-27.94%
| ||||
Woods, Robert WR BUF
|
5.76
|
4.15
|
-27.98%
| ||||
Shorts, Cecil WR JAC
|
9.36
|
6.48
|
-30.80%
| ||||
Ginn, Ted WR CAR
|
6.97
|
4.64
|
-33.44%
| ||||
Hankerson, Leonard WR WAS
|
6.20
|
4.03
|
-34.95%
| ||||
Jackson, Vincent WR TB
|
13.90
|
9.00
|
-35.25%
| ||||
Washington, Nate WR TEN
|
8.84
|
5.20
|
-41.20%
| ||||
Simpson, Jerome WR MIN
|
6.89
|
4.00
|
-41.91%
| ||||
Moore, Denarius WR OAK
|
11.68
|
6.60
|
-43.51%
| ||||
Hopkins, DeAndre WR HOU
|
7.80
|
4.30
|
-44.87%
| ||||
Nicks, Hakeem WR NYG
|
8.30
|
4.43
|
-46.59%
| ||||
Bryant, Dez WR DAL
|
14.90
|
7.88
|
-47.15%
| ||||
Cruz, Victor WR NYG
|
12.84
|
6.60
|
-48.59%
| ||||
Thompkins, Kenbrell WR NE
|
8.63
|
4.40
|
-49.01%
| ||||
Holmes, Santonio WR NYJ
|
8.83
|
4.15
|
-52.97%
| ||||
Johnson, Steve WR BUF
|
10.30
|
4.30
|
-58.25%
| ||||
Jones, James WR GB
|
13.23
|
5.50
|
-58.41%
| ||||
Nelson, Jordy WR GB
|
16.56
|
6.84
|
-58.69%
| ||||
Stills, Kenny WR NO
|
10.82
|
4.12
|
-61.92%
| ||||
Welker, Wes WR DEN
|
13.44
|
4.05
|
-69.86%
| ||||
Williams, Terrance WR DAL
|
10.59
|
3.18
|
-70.01%
| ||||
Brown, Mike WR JAC
|
7.90
|
2.33
|
-70.46%
| ||||
Jones, Marvin WR CIN
|
12.50
|
2.40
|
-80.80%
| ||||
TE Risers:
| |||||||
Player
|
Wk 1-8
|
Wk 9-13
|
% Change
| ||||
Gronkowski, Rob TE NE
|
2.14
|
17.98
|
740.94%
| ||||
Fasano, Anthony TE KC
|
0.94
|
7.15
|
662.67%
| ||||
Green, Ladarius TE SD
|
1.61
|
7.22
|
347.26%
| ||||
Ertz, Zach TE PHI
|
2.51
|
8.03
|
219.40%
| ||||
Miller, Zach TE SEA
|
3.88
|
6.60
|
70.32%
| ||||
Myers, Brandon TE NYG
|
4.06
|
6.30
|
55.08%
| ||||
Fleener, Coby TE IND
|
5.93
|
8.78
|
48.10%
| ||||
Witten, Jason TE DAL
|
7.66
|
10.73
|
39.97%
| ||||
Celek, Brent TE PHI
|
4.18
|
5.63
|
34.73%
| ||||
Wright, Timothy TE TB
|
3.73
|
4.84
|
29.81%
| ||||
Miller, Heath TE PIT
|
3.79
|
4.86
|
28.38%
| ||||
Olsen, Greg TE CAR
|
6.86
|
8.62
|
25.71%
| ||||
TE Fallers:
| |||||||
Player
|
Wk 1-8
|
Wk 9-13
|
% Change
| ||||
Graham, Jimmy TE NO
|
17.86
|
13.16
|
-26.30%
| ||||
Gresham, Jermaine TE CIN
|
4.10
|
3.00
|
-26.83%
| ||||
Clay, Charles TE MIA
|
8.76
|
6.26
|
-28.52%
| ||||
Davis, Vernon TE SF
|
12.35
|
8.68
|
-29.76%
| ||||
Bennett, Martellus TE CHI
|
8.51
|
4.98
|
-41.51%
| ||||
Gates, Antonio TE SD
|
9.39
|
5.38
|
-42.68%
| ||||
Fauria, Joseph TE DET
|
4.76
|
2.73
|
-42.78%
| ||||
Chandler, Scott TE BUF
|
5.76
|
3.25
|
-43.60%
| ||||
Cumberland, Jeff TE NYJ
|
4.60
|
2.50
|
-45.65%
| ||||
Thomas, Julius TE DEN
|
12.39
|
6.48
|
-47.73%
| ||||
Clark, Dallas TE BAL
|
5.50
|
2.76
|
-49.82%
| ||||
Reed, Jordan TE WAS
|
7.69
|
3.78
|
-50.82%
| ||||
Cameron, Jordan TE CLE
|
12.33
|
2.70
|
-78.09%
| ||||
DST Risers:
| |||||||
Player
|
Wk 1-8
|
Wk 9-13
|
% Change
| ||||
Giants DST NYG
|
8.75
|
19.60
|
124.00%
| ||||
Jaguars DST JAC
|
6.75
|
12.80
|
89.63%
| ||||
Steelers DST PIT
|
9.71
|
15.00
|
54.41%
| ||||
Bengals DST CIN
|
16.25
|
24.00
|
47.69%
| ||||
Eagles DST PHI
|
10.50
|
15.00
|
42.86%
| ||||
Dolphins DST MIA
|
13.29
|
18.00
|
35.48%
| ||||
Rams DST STL
|
15.13
|
20.20
|
33.55%
| ||||
Lions DST DET
|
10.25
|
13.00
|
26.83%
| ||||
DST Fallers:
| |||||||
Player
|
Wk 1-8
|
Wk 9-13
|
% Change
| ||||
Vikings DST MIN
|
12.00
|
8.67
|
-27.78%
| ||||
Redskins DST WAS
|
15.14
|
9.67
|
-36.16%
| ||||
Jets DST NYJ
|
12.13
|
7.60
|
-37.32%
| ||||
Titans DST TEN
|
16.57
|
10.00
|
-39.66%
| ||||
Cowboys DST DAL
|
16.88
|
10.00
|
-40.74%
| ||||
Falcons DST ATL
|
10.29
|
5.33
|
-48.15%
| ||||
Colts DST IND
|
16.43
|
7.60
|
-53.74%
| ||||
Chiefs DST KC
|
24.75
|
9.80
|
-60.40%
| ||||
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