Position
|
Player
|
Current Value
|
Weekly Change
|
YTD Change
| |||||
QB
|
Brees, Drew NO
|
$ 50.98
|
7.8%
|
3.4%
| |||||
QB
|
Manning, Peyton DEN
|
$ 60.92
|
0.8%
|
52.5%
| |||||
QB
|
Rodgers, Aaron GB
|
$ 23.89
|
0.0%
|
-48.9%
| |||||
RB
|
Peterson, Adrian MIN
|
$ 44.82
|
-5.0%
|
-17.2%
| |||||
RB
|
Forte, Matt CHI
|
$ 43.26
|
7.7%
|
37.9%
| |||||
RB
|
Charles, Jamaal KC
|
$ 58.58
|
-5.7%
|
27.3%
| |||||
RB
|
Spiller, C.J. BUF
|
$ 25.92
|
4.0%
|
-41.7%
| |||||
RB
|
Lynch, Marshawn SEA
|
$ 44.48
|
0.3%
|
7.7%
| |||||
RB
|
Rice, Ray BAL
|
$ 22.08
|
-2.2%
|
-41.6%
| |||||
WR
|
Johnson, Calvin DET
|
$ 44.85
|
-4.8%
|
1.6%
| |||||
WR
|
Bryant, Dez DAL
|
$ 37.29
|
2.3%
|
4.2%
| |||||
WR
|
Green, A.J. CIN
|
$ 39.07
|
0.1%
|
7.9%
| |||||
WR
|
Marshall, Brandon CHI
|
$ 36.40
|
1.0%
|
9.4%
| |||||
WR
|
Cruz, Victor NYG
|
$ 18.29
|
-6.0%
|
-24.5%
| |||||
WR
|
Thomas, Demaryius DEN
|
$ 39.16
|
5.0%
|
30.0%
| |||||
WR
|
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI
|
$ 26.76
|
2.0%
|
-11.2%
| |||||
WR
|
Johnson, Andre HOU
|
$ 28.33
|
-2.8%
|
2.5%
| |||||
WR
|
Nelson, Jordy GB
|
$ 23.34
|
5.0%
|
58.7%
| |||||
TE
|
Graham, Jimmy NO
|
$ 32.82
|
0.0%
|
35.3%
| |||||
TE
|
Davis, Vernon SF
|
$ 17.28
|
0.9%
|
61.5%
| |||||
TE
|
Witten, Jason DAL
|
$ 13.67
|
7.3%
|
12.6%
| |||||
DST
|
Seahawks SEA
|
$ 34.79
|
5.3%
|
27.1%
| |||||
DST
|
49ers SF
|
$ 20.66
|
-2.1%
|
-4.7%
| |||||
DST
|
Bengals CIN
|
$ 22.00
|
9.3%
|
6.0%
| |||||
Totals
|
$ 809.66
|
0.9%
|
3.2%
| ||||||
Hello and Welcome to Market Fantasy!
On the year, the FOW finished up 3.2% and up 0.9% week over week, though the week to week performance was distorted to players missing the final game, leading to large week over week drops in value. It was an interesting year in the NFL this year, and by looking at the FOW, we can take away a couple lessons for next year in regards to drafting your team.
As I stated in the first FOW, the values ascribed to each player are based on their point value over a replacement level player for a 12 team fantasy league. The FOW also represents the players projected to be the highest scoring at their positions at the beginning of the year, with the exception of a couple players who were replaced due to injury. The fact that these players’ values started off high shows just how valuable getting a couple top players can be for your team. By separating themselves from the pack even further, they provided exceptional value to your team. In fact, only 7 of the 24 players in the FOW lost value relative to where they started. Thinking that you probably had a reasonable shot of landing at least two players on the above list shows how important the top rounds are (granted there were a couple players in the list that went outside the first three rounds). I hear a lot that you can’t win or lose your league in the first round, however, if you miss in both of the first two rounds, it can spell disaster if you don’t strike gold later in the draft or in the waiver wire. So what lessons can be learned from the 2013 FOW?
Let’s start with QB where there were two wild swings. Peyton Manning was up big, while Aaron Rodgers was down big, mostly due to injury (though at the time he was injured, he was basically worth the same as in preseason). Drew Brees’ value stayed largely the same. Peyton Manning’s season was generally a game changer. He led fantasy in scoring and had the highest point differential both between the replacement level QB and over the second place at his position. Going in the fifth round or later, that kind of production can easily win leagues. What’s interesting, however, is that along with DST, QB is the only position with two players head and shoulders above the rest of their position (Manning and Brees) while the rest of the starter caliber players are more closely bunched in terms of value. What does this mean? It means that unless you get a top two player, you can really wait on QB and not really get killed. In fact, the difference between Cam Newton, who was a top 5 QB going into the season and Ben Roethlisberger, who was generally around #12, was 20 points on the year. That’s really not enough to justify the 8 round difference between the two.
Moving on to RB, where injuries and poor play decimated what was perceived as a shallow position going into most drafts. Surprises abounded as once written off players made comebacks (Knowshon Moreno, Donald Brown, Fred Jackson) and five rookies (Eddie Lacy, Giovanni Bernard, Le’Veon Bell, Zac Stacy, and Andre Ellington) made the top 25 at the position. The year-end scoring pattern of the position is a pretty smooth curve from the top to the replacement level, with the top 10 holding a significant advantage over the rest of the group. This would suggest that the RB – RB drafting strategy is a waste of one of your picks, as there was plenty of RB2 value later in the draft and even the waiver wire. The big takeaway from this year for next year, I think, is the value of receiving RBs. With the exception of Marshawn Lynch, all of the top five RBs had over 500 yards receiving (Lynch had 316) to go with 1,000 rushing yards. The only RB to accomplish this and not make the top 5 was Reggie Bush, who came in at #11 due to a lack of touchdowns, injuries and the emergence of Joique Bell. The idea of the workhorse RB is changing, with the studs getting a significant chunk of points through the air where the top 5 averaged at least 8 yards per reception. Keep this in mind for next year when drafting. I would definitely lock up a top 10 back in the first two rounds as only Moreno and Lacy made the top 10 while generally not being a top 20 pick. The elite RBs are the ones who are getting the ball in a variety of ways though. The 500 receiving yard RBs are the ones who will really carry your team.
Next up, let’s take a look at the WR crop this year. Outside of a couple surprises (Alshon Jeffery, Josh Gordon) the top 10 looks pretty much like you would have guessed it, even more so with the top 25. Keenan Allen was the only rookie to break into the top 25. Who are the other real surprises? Julian Edelman definitely qualifies. Same with Riley Cooper and Michael Floyd. The only real busts outside of games missed due to injury were Roddy White, Dwayne Bowe and I suppose Victor Cruz (I was never a Hakeem Nicks guy, so I don’t include him as a bust). The biggest takeaway was the sheer volume of quality receivers. You’ll definitely want to get your hands on a top 10 guy probably in the first three rounds next year, but you can wait on a #2 a little bit. The other big takeaway this year is that it was probably best to use a WR as your flex in leagues that play with a flex. Once only the stomping grounds of RBs, using a WR as your flex was a perfectly viable strategy this year. Let’s arbitrarily take 5 points per game as a cutoff (the lowest number that I consider bad, but not fatal). There were 53 RBs who averaged that in the games they played. A full 70 WRs reached that average. Up that to 6 points, and you get 47 RBs and 56 WR. Those numbers show that after you lock up your top 10 WR, you can wait a bit, load up on lottery ticket RBs and still get a decent #2 WR. Heck, you can even use your watch list to keep a stable of waiver wire WRs as kind of an extended bench. Hitting the lottery with a RB is going to be much more valuable to your team than holding a lot of WR. The RB will bring so much more value as they are so much rarer.
Tight end this year was basically three guys and everyone else. Jimmy Graham, Vernon Davis and Julius Thomas were heads and shoulders above the rest of the class (especially Graham). Jimmy Graham would’ve ranked as the #8 WR in fantasy this year. Davis would’ve placed 15th and Thomas 17th among WR. The difference between Thomas, the #3 TE on the year and Jason Witten, the #4 TE, was 27 points. The numbers 4 TE outscored the #10 TE (Martellus Bennett) by only 30 points on the year. TE was definitely a position you could wait on. There were 7 TEs with at least 800 yards receiving and the top 10 was dominated by upstarts like Charles Clay, Jordan Cameron and Julius Thomas. If you waited and just drafted Greg Olsen in the 10th, your team was fine. Next year should see the re-emergence of Rob Gronkowski and hopefully the continued development of guys like Delanie Walker and Garrett Graham making the position even deeper. Honestly, if I missed out on one of the top three, I would lock down a defense like Seattle or Carolina before drafting a TE next year.
Last, but not least (certainly not in my eyes) are the defenses. Generally regarded a step above kickers, the team defense is the most criminally overlooked position in fantasy. As an example, I’m in a league where defenses can really score you a lot of points. If not for the Seattle defense pitching a shutout in week 15, I would’ve lost to the guy who had Jamaal Charles. I went on to win the title in that league thanks to my defense. Even in more standard scoring leagues, a top defense can be extremely valuable. This is even more so in leagues where most owners are happy to just grab a defense late in the last two rounds. The difference between the Chief, who were the top scoring defense, and the Bucs, who were the 12th, was 79 points. This comes out to 4.9 points per game over a 16 game season. A five point advantage over your opponent in a position like defense is huge. It lessens their margin of error. I hear the arguments about defense being hard to predict, but the Seahawks, 49ers, and Bengals were in the top 6. Those were the top three projected defenses to begin the year. Locking up a top defense or acting quickly to grab a Carolina or Arizona provided your team with a huge advantage. The variability argument is ridiculous. Look at the top 10 at the other positions. All are littered with surprises. Do yourself a favor and don’t ignore this very important position next year.
Well, that wraps up the 2013 fantasy football season. Stay tuned as I have a lot of baseball stuff in the works. A big thank you to everyone who reads this blog!
