Thursday, January 2, 2014

Market Fantasy #67 - The End of Year Efficiency Ratings

Hello and welcome to Market Fantasy!

Below are my efficiency rankings through the end of the season. The idea is similar to my consistency rankings in how they are calculated, but looking at a different set of metrics. The consistency rankings are really more of a predictive tool than a rank, in that by showing a players average performance and standard deviation within those performances, we can get an idea of what to expect from a player in a given week.

The efficiency rankings below are based on two metrics: total number of touches and points per touch. Total number of touches is the number of times a player touches the football, either via reception or carry. Points per touch is the number of fantasy points a player scores each time they touch the ball (YTD fantasy points divided by total touches).

The idea in calculating where a player ranks is similar to how I get to my consistency ranks. In calculating the consistency ranks, more weight is given to players with higher average scores, since they are high performers, but also lowest standard deviation. A lower standard deviation gives us a smaller range of outcomes when predicting what their score will be. In calculating the below efficiency ranks, the most weight is given to the highest touches, along with the highest points per touch. The idea is to find the players who will touch the ball the most and score the most points each time they do so. A player like James Starks has a very high points per touch among running backs, but also a smaller workload, so a big game is blown out of proportion some.

One last note on the ranks: running backs will have a lower points per touch than wide receivers and tight ends due to both the higher number of touches and the nature of their touches. Whereas a receiver might average 15 yards (1.5 points) per reception, a good running back only averages 4.5 (.45 points) yards per carry (and a little more per reception).

Thanks for reading!


RB
Player
Touches
Pts/Touch
1
Charles, Jamaal RB KC
329
0.937
2
McCoy, LeSean RB PHI
366
0.761
3
Moreno, Knowshon RB DEN
301
0.786
4
Forte, Matt RB CHI
363
0.720
5
Lynch, Marshawn RB SEA
337
0.710
6
Murray, DeMarco RB DAL
270
0.761
7
Jackson, Fred RB BUF
254
0.741
8
Lacy, Eddie RB GB
319
0.650
9
Peterson, Adrian RB MIN
308
0.661
10
Bush, Reggie RB DET
277
0.669
11
Johnson, Chris RB TEN
321
0.617
12
Bernard, Giovani RB CIN
226
0.738
13
Woodhead, Danny RB SD
182
0.810
14
Bell, Joique RB DET
219
0.738
15
Brown, Donald RB IND
129
0.954
16
Ellington, Andre RB ARI
157
0.804
17
Vereen, Shane RB NE
91
0.962
18
Mathews, Ryan RB SD
311
0.593
19
Gore, Frank RB SF
292
0.599
20
Blount, LeGarrette RB NE
155
0.768
21
Jennings, Rashad RB OAK
199
0.696
22
Starks, James RB GB
99
0.830
23
Sproles, Darren RB NO
124
0.826
24
Bell, Le'Veon RB PIT
289
0.595
25
Morris, Alfred RB WAS
285
0.594
26
Reece, Marcel RB OAK
78
1.012
27
Helu, Roy RB WAS
93
0.823
28
Williams, DeAngelo RB CAR
227
0.606
29
Tolbert, Mike RB CAR
128
0.754
30
Stacy, Zac RB STL
276
0.570
31
Gerhart, Toby RB MIN
49
0.961
32
Snelling, Jason RB ATL
73
0.849
33
Ridley, Stevan RB NE
188
0.625
34
Thomas, Pierre RB NO
224
0.599
35
Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAC
277
0.504
36
Jackson, Steven RB ATL
189
0.610
37
Mendenhall, Rashard RB ARI
235
0.528
38
Bolden, Brandon RB NE
76
0.793
39
Spiller, C.J. RB BUF
234
0.518
40
Ball, Montee RB DEN
140
0.631
41
Ogbonnaya, Chris RB CLE
96
0.690
42
Jacobs, Brandon RB NYG
60
0.785
43
Thomas, Daniel RB MIA
124
0.669
44
Rice, Ray RB BAL
272
0.434
45
Green-Ellis, BenJarvus RB CIN
224
0.517
46
Greene, Shonn RB TEN
83
0.692
47
Tate, Ben RB HOU
215
0.517
48
Richardson, Trent RB IND
223
0.493
49
Rodgers, Jacquizz RB ATL
149
0.600
50
Bush, Michael RB CHI
67
0.724
51
Ivory, Chris RB NYJ
184
0.556
52
Rainey, Bobby RB TB
165
0.577
53
Powell, Bilal RB NYJ
212
0.485
54
Davis, Knile RB KC
81
0.663
55
Hunter, Kendall RB SF
80
0.664
56
Miller, Lamar RB MIA
203
0.482
57
Todman, Jordan RB JAC
90
0.613
58
McFadden, Darren RB OAK
131
0.585
59
Brown, Bryce RB PHI
83
0.624
60
Ingram, Mark RB NO
85
0.605
61
Pierce, Bernard RB BAL
172
0.384
62
Brown, Andre RB NYG
159
0.450
63
McGahee, Willis RB CLE
146
0.340


WR
Player
Touches
Pts/Touch
1
Gordon, Josh WR CLE
92
2.472
2
Thomas, Demaryius WR DEN
92
2.467
3
Johnson, Calvin WR DET
84
2.610
4
Green, A.J. WR CIN
98
2.129
5
Decker, Eric WR DEN
87
2.216
6
Bryant, Dez WR DAL
94
2.121
7
Jackson, DeSean WR PHI
85
2.205
8
Marshall, Brandon WR CHI
100
2.015
9
Nelson, Jordy WR GB
85
2.111
10
Jeffery, Alshon WR CHI
105
1.834
11
Brown, Antonio WR PIT
117
1.695
12
Jackson, Vincent WR TB
79
2.081
13
Boldin, Anquan WR SF
87
1.851
14
Jones, Marvin WR CIN
59
2.334
15
Allen, Keenan WR SD
71
2.093
16
Smith, Torrey WR BAL
65
2.105
17
Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI
84
1.836
18
Cooper, Riley WR PHI
47
2.836
19
Welker, Wes WR DEN
73
1.860
20
Floyd, Michael WR ARI
65
2.063
21
Johnson, Andre WR HOU
109
1.566
22
Royal, Eddie WR SD
50
2.224
23
Cotchery, Jerricho WR PIT
47
2.547
24
Garcon, Pierre WR WAS
115
1.430
25
Tate, Golden WR SEA
67
1.834
26
Washington, Nate WR TEN
58
1.895
27
Stills, Kenny WR NO
35
2.717
28
Hunter, Justin WR TEN
18
3.300
29
Wallace, Mike WR MIA
76
1.662
30
Baldwin, Doug WR SEA
52
2.085
31
Edelman, Julian WR NE
107
1.334
32
Hilton, T.Y. WR IND
84
1.654
33
Randle, Rueben WR NYG
41
2.320
34
Underwood, Tiquan WR TB
24
2.833
35
Colston, Marques WR NO
75
1.657
36
Cruz, Victor WR NYG
73
1.668
37
Moore, Denarius WR OAK
46
2.163
38
Streater, Rod WR OAK
62
1.815
39
Hartline, Brian WR MIA
76
1.653
40
Williams, Terrance WR DAL
47
2.128
41
Ginn, Ted WR CAR
40
2.213
42
Patterson, Cordarrelle WR MIN
57
1.837
43
Wright, Jarius WR MIN
26
2.362
44
Wright, Kendall WR TEN
94
1.276
45
Brown, Marlon WR BAL
50
1.884
46
Sanders, Emmanuel WR PIT
68
1.654
47
LaFell, Brandon WR CAR
51
1.847
48
Thompkins, Kenbrell WR NE
32
2.206
49
Douglas, Harry WR ATL
85
1.349
50
Cobb, Randall WR GB
35
2.146
51
Bowe, Dwayne WR KC
57
1.707
52
Jennings, Greg WR MIN
68
1.535
53
Hopkins, DeAndre WR HOU
52
1.735
54
Jones, James WR GB
59
1.656
55
Smith, Steve WR CAR
64
1.539
56
Shorts, Cecil WR JAC
66
1.450
57
Woods, Robert WR BUF
42
1.864
58
Boykin, Jarrett WR GB
49
1.757
59
Dobson, Aaron WR NE
37
2.051
60
Austin, Tavon WR STL
49
1.733
61
White, Roddy WR ATL
63
1.383
62
Nicks, Hakeem WR NYG
56
1.600
63
Johnson, Steve WR BUF
53
1.447
64
McCluster, Dexter WR KC
61
1.043
65
Avery, Donnie WR KC
42
1.671
66
Simpson, Jerome WR MIN
48
1.638
67
Amendola, Danny WR NE
55
1.371
68
Pettis, Austin WR STL
38
1.682
69
Kerley, Jeremy WR NYJ
47
1.519
70
Roberts, Andre WR ARI
43
1.374



TE
Player
Touches
Pts/Touch
1
Graham, Jimmy TE NO
86
2.529
2
Thomas, Julius TE DEN
65
2.320
3
Davis, Vernon TE SF
52
3.096
4
Witten, Jason TE DAL
73
1.823
5
Cameron, Jordan TE CLE
80
1.671
6
Gonzalez, Tony TE ATL
83
1.613
7
Cook, Jared TE STL
51
1.865
8
Olsen, Greg TE CAR
73
1.611
9
Clay, Charles TE MIA
76
1.571
10
Bennett, Martellus TE CHI
65
1.598
11
Gronkowski, Rob TE NE
39
2.133
12
Graham, Garrett TE HOU
49
1.684
13
Celek, Brent TE PHI
32
2.631
14
Fleener, Coby TE IND
52
1.631
15
Fauria, Joseph TE DET
18
3.483
16
Gates, Antonio TE SD
77
1.392
17
Wright, Timothy TE TB
55
1.587
18
Green, Ladarius TE SD
17
3.271
19
Ertz, Zach TE PHI
36
1.969
20
Walker, Delanie TE TEN
60
1.552
21
Miller, Zach TE SEA
33
2.082
22
Myers, Brandon TE NYG
47
1.621
23
Cumberland, Jeff TE NYJ
26
2.454
24
Rivera, Mychal TE OAK
38
1.703
25
Lewis, Marcedes TE JAC
25
2.316
26
Chandler, Scott TE BUF
53
1.425
27
Miller, Heath TE PIT
58
1.091
28
Clark, Dallas TE BAL
31
1.687
29
Reed, Jordan TE WAS
46
1.515
30
Winslow, Kellen TE NYJ
31
1.639
31
Gresham, Jermaine TE CIN
46
1.393
32
Eifert, Tyler TE CIN
39
1.449
33
Pettigrew, Brandon TE DET
41
1.259
34
Kendricks, Lance TE STL
32
1.556
35
Housler, Rob TE ARI
39
1.318

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