Market Fantasy #47 - The Week 13 Go For It!/Punt!

Hello and welcome to Market Fantasy!

 

I’m going to have to keep this week’s edition of Go For It/Punt short this week due to time constraints. As usual, the Go For It’s are underrated guys who should have good games and can help out in a pinch while the Punt’s are more widely used guys who I think will underperform.

 

I’m incredibly thankful for everyone who reads this blog and wish each of you a very happy Thanksgiving. Best of luck making the playoffs this week and beyond!

 

Thanks for reading!

 

 

QB:

Go For It!

Ryan Fitzpatrick – Talked about him in my pickups article Tuesday. Has been very good lately and has a plus matchup against the Colts. Should be a nice game for him, CJ, Walker and Wright.

 

Carson Palmer – Carson Palmer has been hot the last two weeks as he has rediscovered Larry Fitzgerald and is enjoying Michael Floyd’s breakout game. The Eagles’ pass defense is bad so look for the numbers to continue

 

Punt!

Nick Foles – The Nick Foles story has been great, but I’m betting it takes a one week hiatus this week against the stout Cardinals defense that smothered the Colts last week. I don’t think Foles will be a complete flop given his weapons, but lets’ temper expectations.

 

Mike Glennon – Since taking the reins, Glennon has been remarkably consistent, seemingly throwing for 250 yards and 2TDs every game. This week, however, he is facing a Panthers team that held the Bucs to 13 points back in week 8 and have arguably the league’s best defense. I would look elsewhere this week.

 

RB:

Go For It!

Shane Vereen – Let everyone else try to figure out the carousel of who runs the ball in NE. Vereen has an integral role in the offense no matter what in a great matchup.

 

Donald Brown – After one week off, I’m ready to climb back aboard the Donald Brown train. Great matchup against the team he dropped 21 fantasy points on in his week 11 coming out party.

 

Rashard Mendenhall – I hate typing this as much as you hate reading it. He’s getting the carries (especially goal line), has a great matchup and has outscored Andre Ellington in 3 of the last four games they’ve both played.

 

Punt!

Chris Ogbonnaya – Well that didn’t take long. After saying they wanted to get Ogbonnaya more involved in the offense, he coughs up a fumble and is little more than an afterthought last week. Brandon Weeden certainly doesn’t do anyone any favors either. Jax has played the run tough lately, and I don’t can’t in good faith recommend you put your playoff hopes in Ogbonnaya’s hands.

Darren Sproles – Sproles has been remarkably inconsistent this year with only 3 games in double digit points. This week, he gets to take on the Seahawks smothering defense in what could be a low scoring game. Gambling on any Saints skill player not named Jimmy Graham is too risky for my blood given the Saints’ propensity to spread the ball around.

 

Ben Tate – In what seemed like a nice matchup against the Jaguars last week, Tate was embarrassed, gaining just 27 total yards while watching third stringer Dennis Johnson rack up 87 YFS. Houston is a disaster right now, Tate is still playing with broken ribs, and even though NE was destroyed by Knowshon Moreno last week, I can’t recommend Tate as anything more than a flex as he’s only topped double digits twice on the year and now has to split carries (again).

 

WR:

Go For It!

Michael Floyd – At some point, you have to acknowledge that a player is breaking out. Great matchup, his QB is on fire lately. WR2 this week.

 

Dwayne Bowe – Better late than never. The last two weeks, the Chiefs have figured out that they should use their $50 million dollar man. Should be plenty of stats to go around in this one with banged up KC defense facing a mad Denver offense

 

Keenan Allen – I got burned last week for recommending he ride your bench. Not going to let that happen again. He’s clearly the focal point of a high powered passing attack and should never see your bench.

 

Punt!

Cecil Shorts – Sorry to everyone who thought he’d excel with Blackmon out again. Hasn’t scored double digits since week 5 and a date with Joe Haden is unlikely to change that.

 

TY Hilton – After looking like a budding star with big performances in the two games after Reggie Wayne went down, he’s been held in check the last two. This slump started in week 11 against the Colts’ week 13 opponent, the Tennessee Titans.

 

Pierre Garcon – The Washington passing game has really struggled this year, and though he’s shown flashes, Garcon has struggled along with it. He’s had two huge games since the week 4 bye, but nothing over 8 points other than that. A tough Giants matchup won’t help this week.

 

TE:

Go For It!

Greg Olsen – A decent matchup against TB who allowed Brandon Pettigrew to score last week. Since week 8, Olsen has less than 8 points once in five games and has been remarkably consistent this year.

 

Coby Fleener – Fleener has been remarkably consistent since week 7, averaging around 9 fantasy points per game in that span. In week 11 against Tenn, he went for over 100 yards.

 

Punt!

Jordan Cameron – We all saw the horror show that was Brandon Weeden last week when he was forced into action. Cameron hasn’t touched FOUR points in his last three games as Cleveland has been the Josh Gordon show. The Jags have been playing better on defense as of late as well.

 

Antonio Gates – We all know Gates’ injury history and he is no spring chicken. He’s only topped 6 points once since week six and was largely invisible in the Chargers’ 41 point outburst last week. With Ladarius Green emerging and performing better, Gates will continue to be a hit or miss and largely a miss.

Market Fantasy #46 - Week 13 Free Agents and Consistency Ranks

Hello and Welcome to Market Fantasy!

Below you will find the updated consistency rankings through week 12. The ranks are based on a combination of player weekly scoring average and the standard deviation of the scores. They’re not meant to be regular season ranks, but more of a predictive tool. The aim is to identify players who score the most points week to week on the most consistent basis. A full description of how the ranks are calculated can be found here. As always, the players are listed with the relevant information so you can do your own research and work with the info how you like.

It’s week 13 in fantasy football (real football too, I suppose), and it’s the most important week for many of you. With playoffs starting next week in many leagues, this is the last shot for a lot of teams. One last push to be playing for the money. Thankfully, last week was the last week of byes, but that doesn’t mean that we’re in the clear yet. Pretty much every running back is hurt at this point, with a bunch of names that we are relying on pulling up lame at some point in week 12. With Knowshon Moreno, Zac Stacy, and a host of others leaving their games for some time, many of you could be without a key player for the final push.

There were a couple breakouts in week 12, especially among receivers. Tiquan Underwood had a huge game for Tampa Bay, but I wouldn’t rush to the waiver wire to get him as he has only topped 8 points once in a game this year. Ditto with Donnie Avery and Jacoby Jones. Avery and Jones are both guys who have done little else this season, and can be ignored. There were a couple of breakouts, however that should grab our attention that I will discuss below.

On to the pickups!

QB:

Matt Flynn – In today’s bizarro world NFL where the Bears have a terrible defense and Green Bay is the team with the quarterback carousel, we have to strongly consider Matt Flynn against a Lions team that generally gets roasted against the pass. You might remember the last time Flynn faced the Lions on Thanksgiving went pretty well for him. While I’m not saying he’s going to set any more records, he should be good for at least 250 yards and a couple TDs. There’s always a slim chance Aaron Rodgers makes it back, but that is not looking likely.

Ryan Fitzpatrick – Since stepping in for the injured Jake Locker in week 10, Fitzpatrick is on a nice run over the last three weeks. This week, he gets to take on a Colts team that has been very generous to opposing passing attacks as of late. In week 11 against the Colts, Fitzpatrick was ok, but didn’t have to do much after two early Chris Johnson touchdowns staked the Titans to an early lead. Opposing teams have been throwing on the Colts at will, and without the big first quarter from Johnson, it could very well be Fitz’s day. It’s death by 1,000 cuts with a lot of shorter passes to Delanie Walker and Kendall Wright, but it’s hard to argue the efficacy as of late.

RB:

Benny Cunningham – When Zac Stacy went down, it was Benny Cunningham who got the call to carry the load for the Rams, and he delivered. Granted it was against the Bears who would give up 100 yards to most high school teams, but still, Cunningham gained 109 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries. His usefulness is going to be determined by Stacy passing the concussion protocol, but he is definitely worth an add despite a tough matchup with the Niners on tap.

Dennis Johnson – While Ben Tate was busy being terrible against the league’s juiciest rushing matchup (though to be fair, they’ve been better the last two weeks), it was Johnson who was actually putting up numbers, rushing for 74 yards on 13 carries to Tate’s 1 yard on 7 carries. Coach Gary Kubiak has already named Tate the starter for week 13 against the Patriots, but Johnson is still worth a flier. Tate has health issues and the Patriots just got destroyed by a Knowshon Moreno.

Brandon Bolden – With Stevan Ridle’s fumblitis reappearing Sunday against Denver, and LeGarrette Bount showing us he can fumble with the best of them, it was Bolden who led the team in rushes with 13 going for 58 yards and a touchdown. Bolden was a healthy scratch in week 11, so he’s no sure thing, but he’s holding on to the ball and turned in a good performance. He could be in line for a good performance against a terrible Houston team this week.

Toby Gerhardt – Gerhardt is a Hail Mary if you’re desperate, but Adrian Peterson has been banged up (although you wouldn’t have noticed Sunday) and Minnesota plays the Bears. Everyone can run on the Bears. If I coached the Vikings, I would just call 60 rushing plays. If you’re just scraping the bottom of the barrel, you could do a lot worse.

WR:

Marquise Goodwin – I talked up Goodwin last week after he posted a big game in week 11. He was on the bye last week, so many people might have forgotten about him. Don’t overlook him if you need receiving help. Goodwin has blazing speed and with the Bills receiving corps as banged up as it is, he could be in line for a huge week against a Falcons team that has all but thrown in the towel. He’s kind of like Kenny Stills in that his value will be dependent on the big play, but he has as good a chance of anyone to hit a homerun this week.

Nate Burleson – I’m not going to make a pizza joke here, because I just can’t handle that. It’s like the 2003 Cubs when every story about a Mark Prior start had a headline like “Cubs have Prior Engagement.” Get it? Prior? It’s the same with Burleson this week: “Burleson Delivers Big Game.” Get it? Pizza? Delivery? He got hurt stopping a pizza from sliding in his car. Get it? Everyone stop. Just stop it. Random rant aside, Burleson had a double digit points in two of three before getting hurt and picked up right where he left Sunday with 77 yards and a touchdown. The Packers can be thrown on and he could be in line for another big game as the clear number two opposite Megatron.

Tavon Austin – Trust me, I get the arguments against Tavon Austin; dependent on the big play, only about 3-4 targets a game, his big week 12 play was a run against a Bears defense that couldn’t stop Jim Brown today. I get it, ok? I also get that Austin is electric with the ball in his hands. He reminds me a little bit of Devin Hester circa 2008 where the Bears tried to get him the ball different ways via the return game or designed runs or screens. This is going to make Austin a complete boom or bust type guy, but he’s worth a stash. We can’t ignore the back to back big weeks.

TE:

Ladarius Green – Green is a physical monster that scouts love and he’s starting to produce after a slow start to the season. He has 80 yards receiving in each of his last two games and found the end zone last week. Antonio Gates is still the starter, but he isn’t exactly the most durable dude. With Green starting to really produce, I would definitely stash him if I had room. He could be an easy TE1 is Gates goes down.

Delanie Walker – I’m just going to keep including Walker in here until he’s owned everywhere. Very consistent, double digits in three of last five, great rapport with Ryan Fitzpatrick, playing the Colts who he torched two weeks ago. Just add him so I don’t have to keep writing this.

		Player		Avg		Stdev
1		Stafford, Matthew QB DET		26.4		5.976
2		Wilson, Russell QB SEA		21.8		6.146
3		Luck, Andrew QB IND		21.8		7.604
4		Tannehill, Ryan QB MIA		17.9		3.160
5		Ryan, Matt QB ATL		21		7.536
6		Rivers, Philip QB SD		25.3		9.660
7		Brees, Drew QB NO		30.3		10.669
8		Glennon, Mike QB TB		17.8		5.539
9		Newton, Cam QB CAR		22.5		9.912
10		Pryor, Terrelle QB OAK		17.3		5.614
11		McCown, Josh QB CHI		18.2		6.414
12		Smith, Alex QB KC		19		8.358
13		Fitzpatrick, Ryan QB TEN		19.2		8.837
14		Ponder, Christian QB MIN		15		5.260
15		Roethlisberger, Ben QB PIT		21.2		10.203
16		Manning, Peyton QB DEN		34.2		13.886
17		Griffin III, Robert QB WAS		19.8		9.947
18		Weeden, Brandon QB CLE		11.5		3.472
19		Manuel, EJ QB BUF		15.3		6.364
20		Flacco, Joe QB BAL		16.5		6.493
21		Romo, Tony QB DAL		23.4		12.217
22		Rodgers, Aaron QB GB		24.2		12.937
23		Cutler, Jay QB CHI		18.9		9.155
24		Dalton, Andy QB CIN		21		11.641
25		Palmer, Carson QB ARI		17.3		8.437
26		Brady, Tom QB NE		19.4		11.544
27		Foles, Nick QB PHI		23.2		18.439
28		Keenum, Case QB HOU		18.9		11.481
29		Kaepernick, Colin QB SF		18.4		11.469
30		Lewis, Thad QB BUF		14.5		8.383
31		Manning, Eli QB NYG		15.6		9.599
32		McGloin, Matt QB OAK		14.8		9.146
33		Vick, Michael QB PHI		19.4		13.973
34		Schaub, Matt QB HOU		15		11.764
35		Campbell, Jason QB CLE		13.8		12.085

		Player		Avg		Stdev
1		Brown, Andre RB NYG		16.3		5.047
2		Bell, Le'Veon RB PIT		11.9		4.305
3		Morris, Alfred RB WAS		12.4		4.490
4		Williams, DeAngelo RB CAR		8.2		3.469
5		Jackson, Fred RB BUF		11		4.744
6		Charles, Jamaal RB KC		17.9		6.520
7		Vereen, Shane RB NE		11.7		5.127
8		Bolden, Brandon RB NE		7.1		3.806
9		Richardson, Trent RB IND		6.1		3.017
10		Tate, Ben RB HOU		6.2		3.068
11		Green-Ellis, BenJarvus RB CIN		6.3		3.213
12		Mendenhall, Rashard RB ARI		7.6		4.431
13		Mathews, Ryan RB SD		10.2		5.569
14		Forte, Matt RB CHI		16		6.790
15		Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAC		9.6		5.175
16		McCoy, LeSean RB PHI		17.8		7.629
17		Jackson, Steven RB ATL		7.2		4.351
18		Woodhead, Danny RB SD		10.1		5.610
19		Gore, Frank RB SF		12.4		6.725
20		Lacy, Eddie RB GB		14.2		7.183
21		Murray, DeMarco RB DAL		12.8		7.148
22		Richardson, Daryl RB STL		4.8		2.785
23		McFadden, Darren RB OAK		10.8		6.341
24		Thomas, Pierre RB NO		10.1		6.155
25		Bernard, Giovani RB CIN		11		6.534
26		Peterson, Adrian RB MIN		17.1		8.357
27		Bush, Reggie RB DET		14.1		7.972
28		Stewart, Jonathan RB CAR		3.8		1.960
29		Thomas, Daniel RB MIA		5.2		4.038
30		Hillis, Peyton RB NYG		7.6		5.753
31		Lynch, Marshawn RB SEA		17.1		9.047
32		Tolbert, Mike RB CAR		6.6		4.825
33		Miller, Lamar RB MIA		6.8		4.894
34		Powell, Bilal RB NYJ		6.9		5.084
35		Reece, Marcel RB OAK		4.2		3.876
36		Pierce, Bernard RB BAL		4.4		3.977
37		Hillman, Ronnie RB DEN		4.9		4.186
38		Moreno, Knowshon RB DEN		16.7		9.365
39		Johnson, Dennis RB HOU		3.6		3.155
40		Bell, Joique RB DET		8.8		6.688
41		Ogbonnaya, Chris RB CLE		4.8		4.268
42		McGahee, Willis RB CLE		3.7		3.602
43		Blount, LeGarrette RB NE		4.1		4.077
44		Rodgers, Jacquizz RB ATL		6.9		5.849
45		Spiller, C.J. RB BUF		7.1		5.905
46		Johnson, Chris RB TEN		12.1		8.573
47		Stacy, Zac RB STL		12.2		8.744
48		Hunter, Kendall RB SF		3.7		4.118
49		Ellington, Andre RB ARI		8.3		7.308
50		Rice, Ray RB BAL		8.6		7.414
51		Ridley, Stevan RB NE		10.1		8.152
52		Brown, Donald RB IND		6.5		5.891
53		Snelling, Jason RB ATL		5.4		5.425
54		Ball, Montee RB DEN		4		4.611
55		Sproles, Darren RB NO		8.4		8.058
56		Helu, Roy RB WAS		6.1		6.373
57		Starks, James RB GB		7.4		8.049
58		Jennings, Rashad RB OAK		9		9.158
59		Ivory, Chris RB NYJ		6.8		7.358
60		Jacobs, Brandon RB NYG		7.2		8.342
61		Cunningham, Benny RB STL		4.1		6.650
62		Ingram, Mark RB NO		6		8.517
63		Rainey, Bobby RB TB		5.5		13.689

		Player		Avg		Stdev
1		Burleson, Nate WR DET		10.1		4.179
2		Welker, Wes WR DEN		10.9		5.121
3		Wright, Kendall WR TEN		8.3		4.248
4		Moore, Denarius WR OAK		9		5.444
5		Nelson, Jordy WR GB		13.5		7.141
6		Garcon, Pierre WR WAS		11.2		6.992
7		Smith, Torrey WR BAL		10.2		6.355
8		Baldwin, Doug WR SEA		7		3.868
9		Smith, Steve WR CAR		6.9		2.667
10		Shorts, Cecil WR JAC		7.2		4.314
11		Hartline, Brian WR MIA		7.5		4.621
12		Marshall, Brandon WR CHI		15		7.738
13		Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI		10		6.550
14		Johnson, Steve WR BUF		7.9		5.477
15		Allen, Keenan WR SD		10.4		7.258
16		Randle, Rueben WR NYG		8.1		5.997
17		Streater, Rod WR OAK		6.5		4.159
18		Sanders, Emmanuel WR PIT		7.1		4.928
19		Thomas, Demaryius WR DEN		15.1		9.213
20		Bryant, Dez WR DAL		12.6		8.215
21		Jackson, DeSean WR PHI		14.2		9.208
22		Bowe, Dwayne WR KC		6.5		4.243
23		Nicks, Hakeem WR NYG		6.8		4.727
24		Gordon, Josh WR CLE		16.8		10.407
25		Tate, Golden WR SEA		8.2		6.771
26		Floyd, Michael WR ARI		9.3		7.332
27		Brown, Antonio WR PIT		14		9.623
28		Colston, Marques WR NO		7.2		5.513
29		Green, A.J. WR CIN		14.7		10.114
30		Decker, Eric WR DEN		9.4		7.632
31		Jeffery, Alshon WR CHI		12.1		9.448
32		Cotchery, Jerricho WR PIT		8.7		7.504
33		Johnson, Calvin WR DET		21		12.954
34		Wallace, Mike WR MIA		8.1		7.075
35		Brown, Mike WR JAC		6.3		4.812
36		Thompkins, Kenbrell WR NE		7.2		6.468
37		Douglas, Harry WR ATL		9.1		7.847
38		Cruz, Victor WR NYG		11		9.987
39		Woods, Robert WR BUF		5.6		4.397
40		Ginn, Ted WR CAR		5.6		4.565
41		LaFell, Brandon WR CAR		7		6.311
42		Jackson, Vincent WR TB		12.3		10.590
43		Brown, Marlon WR BAL		7		6.233
44		Jones, James WR GB		8.1		7.520
45		Johnson, Andre WR HOU		13.3		11.955
46		Royal, Eddie WR SD		8.1		7.645
47		Kerley, Jeremy WR NYJ		5.8		5.213
48		Edelman, Julian WR NE		8.4		7.891
49		Boykin, Jarrett WR GB		6.3		5.540
50		Boldin, Anquan WR SF		9.9		9.634
51		Hilton, T.Y. WR IND		10.6		10.764
52		Williams, Terrance WR DAL		7.9		7.668
53		Hankerson, Leonard WR WAS		5.6		5.147
54		Avery, Donnie WR KC		5.8		5.502
55		Hopkins, DeAndre WR HOU		6.2		5.764
56		Cooper, Riley WR PHI		10.2		11.620
57		Simpson, Jerome WR MIN		5.5		5.243
58		Dobson, Aaron WR NE		7.6		7.711
59		Jennings, Greg WR MIN		5.6		5.560
60		Jones, Jacoby WR BAL		6		6.084
61		Washington, Nate WR TEN		6.8		7.110
62		Goodwin, Marquise WR BUF		6.3		6.364
63		Amendola, Danny WR NE		6.8		7.140
64		Jones, Marvin WR CIN		8.7		10.982
65		Holmes, Santonio WR NYJ		7.3		8.812
66		Austin, Tavon WR STL		7.6		10.514
67		Underwood, Tiquan WR TB		6.9		8.385
68		Stills, Kenny WR NO		6.8		8.364

		Player		Avg		Stdev
1		Miller, Heath TE PIT		4.7		2.371
2		Olsen, Greg TE CAR		7.5		3.999
3		Gresham, Jermaine TE CIN		4.5		2.683
4		Chandler, Scott TE BUF		5		3.864
5		Walker, Delanie TE TEN		6.8		4.110
6		Gronkowski, Rob TE NE		13.5		6.607
7		Clark, Dallas TE BAL		4.7		3.805
8		Pettigrew, Brandon TE DET		4.2		2.751
9		Miller, Zach TE SEA		4.8		3.934
10		Bennett, Martellus TE CHI		7.6		4.981
11		Gates, Antonio TE SD		8.2		5.804
12		Clay, Charles TE MIA		7.7		5.496
13		Cameron, Jordan TE CLE		9.6		7.273
14		Fleener, Coby TE IND		7.3		5.117
15		Reed, Jordan TE WAS		8.1		5.869
16		Thomas, Julius TE DEN		12.5		7.794
17		Graham, Jimmy TE NO		16.4		8.685
18		Rudolph, Kyle TE MIN		6.2		4.819
19		Eifert, Tyler TE CIN		4		2.821
20		Winslow, Kellen TE NYJ		4.9		4.244
21		Witten, Jason TE DAL		9		7.609
22		Kendricks, Lance TE STL		3.5		2.797
23		Housler, Rob TE ARI		4.1		3.265
24		Myers, Brandon TE NYG		4.1		3.621
25		Fasano, Anthony TE KC		3.9		3.249
26		Davis, Vernon TE SF		11.9		9.655
27		Celek, Brent TE PHI		4.3		4.030
28		Graham, Garrett TE HOU		6.2		5.783
29		Gonzalez, Tony TE ATL		8.2		7.800
30		Cumberland, Jeff TE NYJ		4.6		4.287
31		Wright, Timothy TE TB		4.4		4.180
32		Cook, Jared TE STL		6.9		7.331
33		Green, Ladarius TE SD		3.4		4.134
34		Fauria, Joseph TE DET		4.5		6.463

		Player		Avg		Stdev
1		Saints DST NO		15.6		4.715
2		Seahawks DST SEA		18.9		6.459
3		Patriots DST NE		14.4		5.564
4		Broncos DST DEN		14.5		5.663
5		Bills DST BUF		14.7		6.397
6		Eagles DST PHI		11.5		4.031
7		Ravens DST BAL		15.9		7.217
8		49ers DST SF		16.5		7.584
9		Packers DST GB		13.5		6.140
10		Texans DST HOU		11		4.369
11		Cardinals DST ARI		16.3		8.035
12		Raiders DST OAK		13.7		6.743
13		Chargers DST SD		10.5		5.211
14		Dolphins DST MIA		14.3		7.312
15		Bengals DST CIN		18		10.557
16		Panthers DST CAR		20.4		11.475
17		Chiefs DST KC		20.8		12.298
18		Buccaneers DST TB		13.2		6.617
19		Cowboys DST DAL		15.4		8.161
20		Rams DST STL		16.7		11.071
21		Falcons DST ATL		8.2		5.219
22		Browns DST CLE		13.3		7.350
23		Lions DST DET		9.8		5.750
24		Jets DST NYJ		11.4		6.242
25		Vikings DST MIN		10.2		6.117
26		Jaguars DST JAC		9.3		5.863
27		Redskins DST WAS		12.2		7.359
28		Titans DST TEN		13.6		8.467
29		Bears DST CHI		12.4		7.619
30		Colts DST IND		12.6		8.116
31		Steelers DST PIT		12.5		8.217
32		Giants DST NYG		11.5		8.784