Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Week 13 Consistency Ratings with Expected Floors and Ceilings - The Zero QB Theory

Hello and Welcome to Market Fantasy!
Below are the Market Fantasy consistency rankings. When I first started doing this last year, I rushed to get them out on Tuesday night to combine them with a free agent pickup column. I’ve decided to stop rushing out the free agent column. Partly because there are a billion sites all telling you to pick up the same guys, so you don’t need me to also tell you to pick up an injured RBs backup. Hopefully, you’ve figured that out on your own. I’m not trying for content just for content’s sake. Also, if there are any free agent picks you find in here, you don’t have to waste a waiver claim on them Tuesday night when the majority of claims are processed. These guys you can pick up Wednesday as free agents and save those high claims for the in demand players everyone else is telling you about that you can probably figure out on your own. I’ll just make some quick observations about each position. Good?
Before we get started, let me give you the quick explanation of these rankings. They are based on a combination of a player’s average weekly scoring and the standard deviation of those scores. The idea is to find the players who not only average the highest points on a per week basis, but also deviate the least from that average. These are not meant to be rest of season or even weekly ranks, just an idea of how a player has performed thus far in the season. Mark Sanchez tops Peyton Manning in these rankings, but don’t trade Manning for Sanchez, ok? 
Like my post earlier on ceilings and floors, these ranks are meant to give you an idea of what to expect from a player. If a player has a high average score and a high standard deviation, they are not very consistent and their point average has been influenced by a huge game and the rest pedestrian games. The average score and standard deviations have been provided for each player, so use them to make your own decisions about your team and identify players to either unload or trade for.
I’ve also added the expected floors and ceilings. Remember from my Six Sigma drafting piece, following the standard distribution, a player will achieve over one standard deviation below their average 84% of the time, and will fall under one standard deviation above their average 84% of the time. These will change some on a weekly basis as the average and standard deviations move week to week, but as of now, the numbers below are what we can expect from a certain player.
As always, love to hear comments. Thanks for reading!
Inane Comments:
QB: I know a lot of time and ink has been spilled in the fantasy community about zero RB, but what about zero QB? Can you comfortably wait until round 9 or 10 to get your QB? I don’t see a reason to reach if you miss out on the top three or so. After the top 7, who are averaging between 32.2 and 24.1 points per game, there are 8 guys who are averaging between 22.4 and 20.2 points per game. Think about that, there is an 8 points per game difference between 1 – 7 at the position, but only a 2.2 difference between the next 8. I understand that a couple of these guys like Kyle Orton and Mark Sanchez didn’t start right away, but for guys like Ryan Tannehill or Eli Manning, were they even drafted in your league? You could’ve grabbed Rivers in the 8th or 9th and sat on him, and picked up guys off the waiver as the season went on to compliment him. Sometimes I don’t draft a kicker, preferring to get an extra skill position player. Then I wait out the preseason for positional battles and injuries to work themselves out. Right before the season, I decide who is most easily dropped and just grab a random kicker. Are we getting to the point where we can do this with QB? It would be bold for sure, but really why not? You get an extra pick at a sleeper and can still end up with a top 12 QB. Seems like a win – win to me.

RB: So this week, the zero RB guys are probably going to be licking their chops and saying “I told you so!” Just look at the RB scores this week. Latavius Murray! CJ Anderson! Justin Forsett! (who single handedly ended my playoff hopes in a league. !@#$!@%), Isiah Crowell! LeGarrett Blount! Even Daniel Herron got the start for Indy and looked like a passable RB2! Here’s the problem. Unlike zero QB (let’s make it a thing!), 9 of the top 12 RB in average scoring per game were drafted in the first two rounds in probably 99% of leagues. One of those guys, Jonas Gray, is only that high in average scoring because of a fluke all time performance where he was benched a week later. So I’m not counting him. The other two guys, Justin Forsett and Mark Ingram, I’ll give you. But that’s still 2 out of 12. (If you take Jonas Gray out, the next guy in average scoring is Andre Ellington, who was a second rounder at worst also). The point here is you still need an RB in the first two rounds or you are seriously at a disadvantage at the position. Look at the list of guys mentioned earlier. When did they get the start? A couple weeks ago? This week for two? Come on, you’re going to tell me that you’ll be fine playing the waivers with the hardest position to get on waivers for 10 weeks while you stare at 3 high draft pick WR on your bench who you can’t start because of lineup restrictions? You can’t just make a trade or pick up the next hot thing on waivers. These things don’t exist in a vacuum. There are other people in your league I’m guessing.

WR: So the other side of zero RB is loading up on WR, with the thinking being that with the league becoming so pass heavy, you want as many top WR to choose from to give you the biggest advantage. Taking a look at the top 24 receivers (those most likely to be starters in 12 team leagues), it looks a lot like the RB position in per game scoring. Most of the guys in the top 24 (I’m using 24 because if you go into a draft looking to load up on WR, then it’s fair to say your first two picks were WR) were high draft picks to begin the year. The difference in this group is the rookies. Three rookies (Odell Beckham, Martavis Bryant, and Mike Evans) make the top 10 in per game scoring and Kelvin Benjamin is #15. Other surprises in the top 24 include Steve Smith, Golden Tate, and Mohamed Sanu. I guess what this shows is that you probably still want to go into a draft with a balanced approach and most likely get a RB and a WR in the first two rounds, with two RBs in the first three and definitely four rounds. You will always be able to play the lottery later in the draft, but you want to have a solid bedrock across your team early on. For what it’s worth, the point differential between the top and 24th running back on a per game basis is 14.1 points. For wide receivers, that mark shrinks to 8.5 points. This show that there is much more parity in the WR position than the RB position, meaning you’ll be less screwed with lesser WR as you’re giving up less by not owning the top guys.

TE: If you can figure out the TE position this year, you’re better at this than I am. It’s been a black hole for two of my teams with Vernon Davis and Zach Ertz disappointing, followed by a string of disappointing fill ins. Honestly, if you can wring 5 points from your TE, you’ve won a small victory. Outside of four or five guys, trying to figure out who can give you 5 points is a complete crapshoot. I liked Coby Fleener, Niles Paul and Austin Sefari-Jenkins this week, but they combined for 5.5 points. Ugh. The number 12 TE (Jason Witten) is averaging 6.4 points per game, but look at his scoring variation. He has 4 weeks under 5 points and only 1 in double digits. There’s just no telling with this position.

QB:
Rank
Player
Avg
Std Dev
Floor 
Ceiling
1
Drew Brees NO 
25.2
6.37
18.83
31.57
2
Peyton Manning DEN 
32.2
7.07
25.13
39.27
3
Mark Sanchez PHI 
20.8
4.57
16.23
25.37
4
Andrew Luck IND 
32
7.98
24.02
39.98
5
Ryan Tannehill MIA 
21.7
7.08
14.62
28.78
6
Tony Romo DAL 
22.4
7.32
15.08
29.72
7
Colin Kaepernick SF 
19.2
6.94
12.26
26.14
8
Ryan Fitzpatrick HOU 
16.3
5.36
10.94
21.66
9
Kyle Orton BUF 
20.2
7.23
12.97
27.43
10
Jay Cutler CHI 
22
8.27
13.73
30.27
11
Brian Hoyer CLE 
15.8
6.27
9.53
22.07
12
Alex Smith KC 
16.5
6.75
9.75
23.25
13
Matt Ryan ATL 
21.1
8.32
12.78
29.42
14
Aaron Rodgers GB 
30.3
11.31
18.99
41.61
15
Russell Wilson SEA 
24.1
10.88
13.22
34.98
16
Blake Bortles JAC 
14.1
6.22
7.88
20.32
17
Philip Rivers SD 
21.7
10.70
11.00
32.40
18
Tom Brady NE 
24.7
12.75
11.95
37.45
19
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 
25.1
16.60
8.50
41.70
20
Josh McCown TB 
17.5
8.47
9.03
25.97
21
Cam Newton CAR 
18.7
8.87
9.83
27.57
22
Derek Carr OAK 
14.8
7.85
6.95
22.65
23
Andy Dalton CIN 
16.8
8.56
8.24
25.36
24
Eli Manning NYG 
20.9
11.19
9.71
32.09
25
Teddy Bridgewater MIN 
14.4
7.63
6.77
22.03
26
Matthew Stafford DET 
18.2
9.76
8.44
27.96
27
Joe Flacco BAL 
19.9
11.17
8.73
31.07
28
Drew Stanton ARI 
12.3
7.89
4.41
20.19
29
Zach Mettenberger TEN 
15.4
9.73
5.67
25.13
30
Austin Davis STL
15.3
9.90
5.40
25.20

RB:
Rank
Player
Avg
Std Dev
Floor 
Ceiling
1
DeMarco Murray DAL 
20.9
5.34
15.56
26.24
2
Lamar Miller MIA 
10.6
4.56
6.04
15.16
3
Tre Mason STL 
8.7
4.01
4.69
12.71
4
Fred Jackson BUF 
8.8
4.19
4.61
12.99
5
Joique Bell DET 
8.5
3.96
4.54
12.46
6
Jonathan Stewart CAR 
7.1
3.25
3.85
10.35
7
Ryan Mathews SD 
11.4
5.64
5.76
17.04
8
Trent Richardson IND 
8
3.94
4.06
11.94
9
Alfred Morris WAS 
12.6
6.74
5.86
19.34
10
Matt Forte CHI 
18.4
7.96
10.44
26.36
11
Roy Helu WAS
5.9
2.97
2.93
8.87
12
Steven Jackson ATL 
8.2
4.39
3.81
12.59
13
Andre Ellington ARI 
12.1
6.78
5.32
18.88
14
Darren McFadden OAK 
6.5
3.39
3.11
9.89
15
LeSean McCoy PHI 
11.1
6.17
4.93
17.27
16
Le'Veon Bell PIT 
16.4
8.31
8.09
24.71
17
Giovani Bernard CIN 
12.8
7.62
5.18
20.42
18
Bryce Brown BUF 
4.7
2.92
1.78
7.62
19
Bishop Sankey TEN 
5.8
3.30
2.50
9.10
20
Benny Cunningham STL
6.1
3.56
2.54
9.66
21
Rashad Jennings NYG 
12.1
7.48
4.62
19.58
22
Chris Ivory NYJ 
9.5
6.55
2.95
16.05
23
Justin Forsett BAL 
15.1
8.38
6.72
23.48
24
DeAngelo Williams CAR 
4.5
1.54
2.96
6.04
25
Mark Ingram NO 
15.3
8.72
6.58
24.02
26
Arian Foster HOU 
22.9
10.58
12.32
33.48
27
Shane Vereen NE 
8.5
6.00
2.50
14.50
28
Jamaal Charles KC 
16.3
9.57
6.73
25.87
29
Toby Gerhart JAC 
4.2
2.60
1.60
6.80
30
Ben Tate MIN 
8.4
5.99
2.41
14.39
31
Darren Sproles PHI 
10.3
7.21
3.09
17.51
32
Ronnie Hillman DEN 
11.6
7.79
3.81
19.39
33
Doug Martin TB 
5.2
3.41
1.79
8.61
34
Khiry Robinson NO 
7.3
5.27
2.03
12.57
35
Eddie Lacy GB 
14.7
9.34
5.36
24.04
36
Marshawn Lynch SEA 
17.7
11.16
6.54
28.86
37
Carlos Hyde SF 
4.5
3.28
1.22
7.78
38
Reggie Bush DET 
6
4.30
1.70
10.30
39
Andre Williams NYG 
6.7
4.81
1.89
11.51
40
Terrance West CLE 
7.9
5.47
2.43
13.37
41
Anthony Dixon BUF 
3.9
3.27
0.63
7.17
42
Zac Stacy STL
4.6
3.45
1.15
8.05
43
Jerick McKinnon MIN 
6.7
5.17
1.53
11.87
44
Frank Gore SF 
8.9
7.29
1.61
16.19
45
Jonas Gray NE 
16.1
19.36
-3.26
35.46
46
Bobby Rainey TB 
6.9
5.41
1.49
12.31
47
Bernard Pierce BAL
4.6
3.80
0.80
8.40
48
Chris Johnson NYJ 
5.8
4.67
1.13
10.47
49
Isaiah Crowell CLE 
7.9
6.06
1.84
13.96
50
Pierre Thomas NO 
8.2
6.84
1.36
15.04
51
Jeremy Hill CIN 
11.4
9.15
2.25
20.55
52
Denard Robinson JAC 
8
7.41
0.59
15.41
53
Branden Oliver SD 
9.5
10.06
-0.56
19.56
54
Theo Riddick DET 
4.9
5.28
-0.38
10.18
55
Alfred Blue HOU 
5.7
5.47
0.23
11.17
56
Matt Asiata MIN 
9.2
9.59
-0.39
18.79
57
Knile Davis KC 
7.9
8.60
-0.70
16.50
58
LeGarrette Blount NE 
5.2
7.19
-1.99
12.39
59
C.J. Anderson DEN 
7.6
10.47
-2.87
18.07

WR:
Rank
Player
Avg
Std Dev
Floor 
Ceiling
1
Mike Wallace MIA 
9.2
2.88
6.32
12.08
2
Eric Decker NYJ 
7.5
3.80
3.70
11.30
3
Andrew Hawkins CLE 
8.5
4.58
3.92
13.08
4
Malcom Floyd SD 
7.9
4.33
3.57
12.23
5
Vincent Jackson TB 
7.6
4.26
3.34
11.86
6
DeAndre Hopkins HOU 
10.1
5.22
4.88
15.32
7
Roddy White ATL 
9.9
5.11
4.79
15.01
8
Marques Colston NO 
7.1
3.97
3.13
11.07
9
Emmanuel Sanders DEN 
16.2
7.37
8.83
23.57
10
Alshon Jeffery CHI 
11
5.88
5.12
16.88
11
A.J. Green CIN 
12.2
6.42
5.78
18.62
12
Antonio Brown PIT 
17.2
7.79
9.41
24.99
13
Rueben Randle NYG 
6.4
3.80
2.60
10.20
14
Mohamed Sanu CIN 
11.2
6.23
4.97
17.43
15
Randall Cobb GB 
14.2
6.84
7.36
21.04
16
Andre Johnson HOU 
6.2
3.32
2.88
9.52
17
Michael Crabtree SF 
7.4
4.89
2.51
12.29
18
Torrey Smith BAL 
8.2
5.27
2.93
13.47
19
Kelvin Benjamin CAR 
11.7
6.51
5.19
18.21
20
Greg Jennings MIN 
6.2
3.67
2.53
9.87
21
Dwayne Bowe KC 
5.5
2.35
3.15
7.85
22
James Jones OAK 
7.2
4.78
2.42
11.98
23
Julian Edelman NE 
8.7
5.50
3.20
14.20
24
Anquan Boldin SF 
10
6.05
3.95
16.05
25
Miles Austin CLE 
5.5
2.79
2.71
8.29
26
Dez Bryant DAL 
14.6
7.81
6.79
22.41
27
Odell Beckham NYG 
14.9
8.02
6.88
22.92
28
Jerricho Cotchery CAR 
4.5
1.96
2.54
6.46
29
Julio Jones ATL 
12.2
7.52
4.68
19.72
30
Martavis Bryant PIT 
14.3
7.94
6.36
22.24
31
Terrance Williams DAL 
7.3
5.36
1.94
12.66
32
Harry Douglas ATL 
4.3
2.08
2.22
6.38
33
Keenan Allen SD 
7.1
5.11
1.99
12.21
34
Jordy Nelson GB 
16.5
10.22
6.28
26.72
35
Demaryius Thomas DEN 
18.4
11.04
7.36
29.44
36
Kenny Stills NO 
6.8
4.95
1.85
11.75
37
Golden Tate DET 
13.1
8.05
5.05
21.15
38
Wes Welker DEN 
4.5
3.27
1.23
7.77
39
Steve Johnson SF
5.6
4.13
1.47
9.73
40
Reggie Wayne IND 
7.5
5.79
1.71
13.29
41
Riley Cooper PHI 
4.2
2.71
1.49
6.91
42
Brandon Marshall CHI 
10.3
7.67
2.63
17.97
43
Jermaine Kearse SEA 
4.1
2.50
1.60
6.60
44
Davante Adams GB 
4.3
3.00
1.30
7.30
45
Markus Wheaton PIT 
5.3
3.92
1.38
9.22
46
Taylor Gabriel CLE 
5.5
4.18
1.32
9.68
47
Justin Hunter TEN 
6
4.68
1.32
10.68
48
Jarvis Landry MIA 
6.3
5.00
1.30
11.30
49
John Brown ARI 
7.8
6.36
1.44
14.16
50
Jeremy Maclin PHI 
15.2
11.17
4.03
26.37
51
Percy Harvin NYJ 
6
4.74
1.26
10.74
52
T.Y. Hilton IND 
14.1
9.71
4.39
23.81
53
Brandon LaFell NE 
9.4
7.42
1.98
16.82
54
Mike Evans TB 
14.5
11.08
3.42
25.58
55
Cecil Shorts JAC 
6
4.89
1.11
10.89
56
Kendall Wright TEN 
7
5.57
1.43
12.57
57
DeSean Jackson WAS 
11.6
9.13
2.47
20.73
58
Nate Washington TEN 
4.3
3.84
0.46
8.14
59
Steve Smith BAL 
11.1
8.74
2.36
19.84
60
Charles Johnson MIN 
4.6
4.66
-0.06
9.26
61
Louis Murphy TB 
6.3
5.44
0.86
11.74
62
Larry Fitzgerald ARI 
8.4
7.80
0.60
16.20
63
Jordan Matthews PHI 
9.6
8.36
1.24
17.96
64
Sammy Watkins BUF 
10
9.52
0.48
19.52
65
Calvin Johnson DET 
10.5
10.35
0.15
20.85
66
Kenny Britt STL 
6.4
5.97
0.43
12.37
67
Michael Floyd ARI 
6.9
6.51
0.39
13.41
68
Eddie Royal SD 
7.2
7.21
-0.01
14.41
69
Doug Baldwin SEA 
5.8
5.50
0.30
11.30
70
Travis Benjamin CLE 
4.2
4.75
-0.55
8.95
71
Pierre Garcon WAS 
6.4
6.56
-0.16
12.96
72
Cordarrelle Patterson MIN 
5.6
5.78
-0.18
11.38
73
Devin Hester ATL 
4.9
5.39
-0.49
10.29
74
Allen Hurns JAC 
7.7
9.27
-1.57
16.97
75
Robert Woods BUF 
6.3
6.63
-0.33
12.93
76
Andre Holmes OAK 
6.8
7.80
-1.00
14.60
77
Joseph Morgan NO 
4.5
6.10
-1.60
10.60

TE:

Rank
Player
Avg
Std Dev
Floor 
Ceiling
1
Dwayne Allen IND 
7.9
2.27
5.63
13.53
2
Jason Witten DAL 
6.4
3.22
3.18
9.58
3
Tony Moeaki SEA 
4.8
1.35
3.45
8.25
4
Travis Kelce KC 
6.9
4.14
2.76
9.66
5
Jared Cook STL 
4.8
3.71
1.09
5.89
6
Greg Olsen CAR 
9.8
5.59
4.21
14.01
7
Kyle Rudolph MIN 
4.1
1.74
2.36
6.46
8
Martellus Bennett CHI 
8.9
5.53
3.37
12.27
9
Zach Ertz PHI 
5.1
4.03
1.07
6.17
10
Owen Daniels BAL 
5.3
4.43
0.87
6.17
11
Coby Fleener IND 
6.7
5.26
1.44
8.14
12
Delanie Walker TEN 
9.9
6.93
2.97
12.87
13
Jimmy Graham NO 
11.1
7.18
3.92
15.02
14
Rob Gronkowski NE 
13.1
8.57
4.53
17.63
15
Charles Clay MIA 
4.7
3.90
0.80
5.50
16
Julius Thomas DEN 
11.8
9.13
2.67
14.47
17
Scott Chandler BUF 
4.4
3.87
0.53
4.93
18
Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB 
3.6
2.87
0.73
4.33
19
Jermaine Gresham CIN 
4
3.35
0.65
4.65
20
Antonio Gates SD 
9.4
8.20
1.20
10.60
21
Niles Paul WAS
4.5
4.30
0.20
4.70
22
Larry Donnell NYG 
6.9
6.44
0.46
7.36
23
Timothy Wright NE 
5.3
5.36
-0.06
5.24
24
Heath Miller PIT 
5.7
5.87
-0.17
5.53
25
Jordan Cameron CLE 
5.7
6.20
-0.50
5.20
26
Mychal Rivera OAK 
4.5
5.11
-0.61
3.89
27
Clay Harbor JAC
4.1
4.56
-0.46
3.64
28
Vernon Davis SF 
3.6
4.64
-1.04
2.56