Friday, December 27, 2013

Market Fantasy #65 - The Week 16 Efficiency Ratings

Hello and welcome to Market Fantasy!

Below are my efficiency rankings through week 16. The idea is similar to my consistency rankings in how they are calculated, but looking at a different set of metrics. The consistency rankings are really more of a predictive tool than a rank, in that by showing a players average performance and standard deviation within those performances, we can get an idea of what to expect from a player in a given week.

The efficiency rankings below are based on two metrics: total number of touches and points per touch. Total number of touches is the number of times a player touches the football, either via reception or carry. Points per touch is the number of fantasy points a player scores each time they touch the ball (YTD fantasy points divided by total touches).

The idea in calculating where a player ranks is similar to how I get to my consistency ranks. In calculating the consistency ranks, more weight is given to players with higher average scores, since they are high performers, but also lowest standard deviation. A lower standard deviation gives us a smaller range of outcomes when predicting what their score will be. In calculating the below efficiency ranks, the most weight is given to the highest touches, along with the highest points per touch. The idea is to find the players who will touch the ball the most and score the most points each time they do so. A player like James Starks has a very high points per touch among running backs, but also a smaller workload, so a big game is blown out of proportion some.

One last note on the ranks: running backs will have a lower points per touch than wide receivers and tight ends due to both the higher number of touches and the nature of their touches. Whereas a receiver might average 15 yards (1.5 points) per reception, a good running back only averages 4.5 (.45 points) yards per carry (and a little more per reception).

Thanks for reading!



Player
Touches
Pts/Touch
1
Charles, Jamaal RB KC
329
0.937
2
McCoy, LeSean RB PHI
338
0.767
3
Moreno, Knowshon RB DEN
290
0.773
4
Lynch, Marshawn RB SEA
313
0.713
5
Forte, Matt RB CHI
337
0.675
6
Murray, DeMarco RB DAL
248
0.800
7
Peterson, Adrian RB MIN
308
0.661
8
Lacy, Eddie RB GB
296
0.653
9
Jackson, Fred RB BUF
237
0.722
10
Bush, Reggie RB DET
258
0.669
11
Bernard, Giovani RB CIN
208
0.767
12
Gore, Frank RB SF
279
0.622
13
Woodhead, Danny RB SD
170
0.832
14
Johnson, Chris RB TEN
291
0.612
15
Bell, Joique RB DET
207
0.754
16
Ellington, Andre RB ARI
145
0.842
17
Morris, Alfred RB WAS
267
0.610
18
Jennings, Rashad RB OAK
193
0.709
19
Brown, Donald RB IND
114
0.996
20
Sproles, Darren RB NO
119
0.836
21
Mathews, Ryan RB SD
285
0.593
22
Bell, Le'Veon RB PIT
268
0.583
23
Vereen, Shane RB NE
86
0.895
24
Reece, Marcel RB OAK
77
1.010
25
Stacy, Zac RB STL
257
0.598
26
Starks, James RB GB
87
0.836
27
Tolbert, Mike RB CAR
118
0.785
28
Helu, Roy RB WAS
88
0.826
29
Ridley, Stevan RB NE
176
0.626
30
Williams, DeAngelo RB CAR
215
0.599
31
Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAC
259
0.512
32
Thomas, Pierre RB NO
216
0.583
33
Mendenhall, Rashard RB ARI
223
0.539
34
Blount, LeGarrette RB NE
131
0.673
35
Thomas, Daniel RB MIA
122
0.680
36
Jackson, Steven RB ATL
171
0.619
37
Bolden, Brandon RB NE
76
0.793
38
Rice, Ray RB BAL
259
0.437
39
Tate, Ben RB HOU
215
0.517
40
Ogbonnaya, Chris RB CLE
95
0.687
41
Snelling, Jason RB ATL
66
0.771
42
Ball, Montee RB DEN
127
0.622
43
Green-Ellis, BenJarvus RB CIN
213
0.513
44
Greene, Shonn RB TEN
77
0.732
45
Spiller, C.J. RB BUF
210
0.514
46
Rodgers, Jacquizz RB ATL
149
0.600
47
Rainey, Bobby RB TB
153
0.599
48
Ivory, Chris RB NYJ
179
0.561
49
McFadden, Darren RB OAK
121
0.617
50
Richardson, Trent RB IND
213
0.468
51
Powell, Bilal RB NYJ
190
0.504
52
Hunter, Kendall RB SF
78
0.664
53
Miller, Lamar RB MIA
185
0.488
54
Todman, Jordan RB JAC
87
0.617
55
Ingram, Mark RB NO
81
0.606
56
Pierce, Bernard RB BAL
163
0.377
57
Brown, Andre RB NYG
146
0.496
58
McGahee, Willis RB CLE
146
0.340


Player
Touches
Pts/Touch
1
Gordon, Josh WR CLE
85
2.579
2
Johnson, Calvin WR DET
84
2.610
3
Thomas, Demaryius WR DEN
86
2.369
4
Jackson, DeSean WR PHI
82
2.251
5
Decker, Eric WR DEN
83
2.218
6
Bryant, Dez WR DAL
86
2.134
7
Green, A.J. WR CIN
94
2.090
8
Marshall, Brandon WR CHI
94
2.001
9
Nelson, Jordy WR GB
75
2.177
10
Jeffery, Alshon WR CHI
102
1.829
11
Jackson, Vincent WR TB
75
2.145
12
Brown, Antonio WR PIT
108
1.756
13
Smith, Torrey WR BAL
62
2.163
14
Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI
78
1.832
15
Jones, Marvin WR CIN
54
2.326
16
Allen, Keenan WR SD
66
2.117
17
Welker, Wes WR DEN
73
1.860
18
Floyd, Michael WR ARI
59
2.119
19
Boldin, Anquan WR SF
77
1.805
20
Cooper, Riley WR PHI
44
2.941
21
Johnson, Andre WR HOU
103
1.610
22
Cotchery, Jerricho WR PIT
44
2.527
23
Garcon, Pierre WR WAS
109
1.458
24
Royal, Eddie WR SD
45
2.224
25
Washington, Nate WR TEN
56
1.893
26
Randle, Rueben WR NYG
41
2.320
27
Moore, Denarius WR OAK
42
2.219
28
Hunter, Justin WR TEN
18
3.300
29
Hilton, T.Y. WR IND
73
1.690
30
Baldwin, Doug WR SEA
52
2.085
31
Colston, Marques WR NO
69
1.704
32
Edelman, Julian WR NE
98
1.390
33
Tate, Golden WR SEA
58
1.790
34
Stills, Kenny WR NO
34
2.397
35
Cruz, Victor WR NYG
73
1.668
36
Streater, Rod WR OAK
57
1.798
37
Hartline, Brian WR MIA
74
1.646
38
Williams, Terrance WR DAL
46
2.089
39
Wright, Jarius WR MIN
24
2.429
40
LaFell, Brandon WR CAR
51
1.847
41
Wallace, Mike WR MIA
71
1.659
42
Wright, Kendall WR TEN
89
1.291
43
Sanders, Emmanuel WR PIT
66
1.665
44
Bowe, Dwayne WR KC
57
1.707
45
Brown, Marlon WR BAL
45
1.893
46
Ginn, Ted WR CAR
38
2.155
47
Douglas, Harry WR ATL
78
1.396
48
Thompkins, Kenbrell WR NE
32
2.206
49
Boykin, Jarrett WR GB
47
1.815
50
Jones, James WR GB
53
1.766
51
Hopkins, DeAndre WR HOU
48
1.806
52
Jennings, Greg WR MIN
63
1.587
53
Dobson, Aaron WR NE
36
2.092
54
Smith, Steve WR CAR
64
1.539
55
Austin, Tavon WR STL
49
1.733
56
Shorts, Cecil WR JAC
66
1.450
57
Woods, Robert WR BUF
41
1.844
58
Nicks, Hakeem WR NYG
54
1.567
59
Patterson, Cordarrelle WR MIN
53
1.589
60
Simpson, Jerome WR MIN
45
1.682
61
Avery, Donnie WR KC
42
1.671
62
White, Roddy WR ATL
55
1.309
63
Johnson, Steve WR BUF
53
1.447
64
Pettis, Austin WR STL
36
1.733
65
Amendola, Danny WR NE
54
1.380
66
Cobb, Randall WR GB
33
1.745
67
Kerley, Jeremy WR NYJ
41
1.641
68
Durham, Kris WR DET
38
1.553
69
Little, Greg WR CLE
40
1.440



Player
Touches
Pts/Touch
1
Graham, Jimmy TE NO
81
2.523
2
Thomas, Julius TE DEN
60
2.453
3
Cameron, Jordan TE CLE
75
1.691
4
Davis, Vernon TE SF
49
3.071
5
Witten, Jason TE DAL
61
1.961
6
Gonzalez, Tony TE ATL
79
1.624
7
Clay, Charles TE MIA
71
1.621
8
Olsen, Greg TE CAR
67
1.603
9
Bennett, Martellus TE CHI
64
1.600
10
Cook, Jared TE STL
46
1.872
11
Graham, Garrett TE HOU
49
1.684
12
Fauria, Joseph TE DET
15
4.047
13
Fleener, Coby TE IND
51
1.614
14
Celek, Brent TE PHI
29
2.452
15
Gates, Antonio TE SD
73
1.344
16
Walker, Delanie TE TEN
57
1.582
17
Ertz, Zach TE PHI
33
2.018
18
Green, Ladarius TE SD
16
2.963
19
Rivera, Mychal TE OAK
36
1.733
20
Miller, Zach TE SEA
30
2.220
21
Cumberland, Jeff TE NYJ
25
2.432
22
Myers, Brandon TE NYG
45
1.673
23
Lewis, Marcedes TE JAC
22
2.314
24
Clark, Dallas TE BAL
31
1.687
25
Wright, Timothy TE TB
49
1.537
26
Chandler, Scott TE BUF
50
1.400
27
Miller, Heath TE PIT
56
1.100
28
Reed, Jordan TE WAS
46
1.515
29
Rudolph, Kyle TE MIN
30
1.643
30
Gresham, Jermaine TE CIN
46
1.393
31
Eifert, Tyler TE CIN
39
1.449
32
Pettigrew, Brandon TE DET
41
1.259