Hello and welcome to Market Fantasy!
Today, I want to take a look at breakout performances for this year and see what they meant for future performances. First, the details. For this exercise, I looked at a few things. First I took a players’ highest weekly score so far this year. I then compared that to their average score to see how much higher it was as a percentage than their average weekly score. Next I took a look at what that player did the next week and found the difference. So in the charts below, from left to right, are: the player’s weekly average score, their max score, the percentage over the average score their max score was, the difference between their max score and the next week’s score , what week their max score came in, and what they did the next week. To be included in this study, I looked at players who’s max score was: 150% above their average for QB’s and 200% above their average for everyone else. I also excluded players whose top score came in week 8, since we don’t know what they’ll follow that up with yet. Lastly, for comparison’s sake, the average position score for the week after the max score and the difference average difference between the max and next week scores are at the bottom of each positional chart.
The QB chart is a nice mix of the range of players at the position. There are no-brainer starters and waiver wire fodder throughout. The picture changes for the RB and TE and to a lesser extent, the WR charts. Most of the players in these charts are guys who were not drafted, but were all hot waiver wire pickups at some point throughout the year so far. Take a look at what the RB, WR, and TE all did the week after their “breakout” weeks. The RB and WR followed up their breakout weeks with around 6.5 points on average. The TEs came in at 4.7 the next week.
So what does this mean? I think there are two takeaways to be had here and they both center around playing the waivers. The first is that these players are not owned when you pick them up for a reason – they are inconsistent with no proven history of performance. Football, more so than any other sport, is won on the waivers. This means that if you are blowing your budget or prime waiver spot on the latest hot thing, you are going to be constantly chasing your tail and end up stuck when one of your guys gets hurt or you miss out on a true breakout (think Colston, Boldin, Alf) when they happen. The RB and WR numbers show that you can expect middling flex value the next week. Chasing the next hot thing constantly brings me to my second point: the trap that so many fantasy players fall into called the “gambler’s fallacy.”
In game theory (yes, that’s an actual thing in the field of statistics), the gambler’s fallacy is the idea that a certain outcome is “due” because of previous outcomes. The best example is a simple question. If you flip a coin five times and get five heads, what are the odds that the next flip will be tails? The tendency for a lot of people would be to say that tails has a better than 50/50 chance of happening, but this is simply not true. Every time you flip a coin, the chance of heads or tails is always 50/50. That is because each flip is an independent event. In fantasy sports, there is a strong tendency to want to chase stats based on the previous games’ outcome, but in reality, each game is an independent event with very little correlation to the previous game. All kinds of variables change or reset to produce a completely different situation. This is why the return on a player with a poor performance history is generally very low the week after a breakout game. Keep this in mind next time you’re tempted to splurge on the hot free agent pick up. Remember to consider things like: opportunity, signals pointing to a change in role (snaps, targets, etc..). Consult my consistency rankings to see if a player’s breakout is in line with what we’ve come to expect.
Thanks for reading and good luck in week 9!
Player
|
Avg
|
Max
|
Max Percent of Average
|
Max Over Average
|
Max Week
|
Week After Max
| |||||||
Joe Flacco BAL
|
20.6
|
45.2
|
219.42%
|
24.6
|
6
|
18.7
| |||||||
Cam Newton CAR
|
18.9
|
41.1
|
217.46%
|
22.2
|
6
|
16.3
| |||||||
Teddy Bridgewater MIN
|
12.5
|
26.4
|
211.20%
|
13.9
|
4
|
2.6
| |||||||
Derek Carr OAK
|
16.1
|
33.5
|
208.07%
|
17.4
|
6
|
7.1
| |||||||
Eli Manning NYG
|
21.1
|
43.1
|
204.27%
|
22
|
4
|
20
| |||||||
Austin Davis STL
|
17.5
|
35
|
200.00%
|
17.5
|
5
|
13.4
| |||||||
Kirk Cousins WAS
|
19.4
|
38.6
|
198.97%
|
19.2
|
3
|
7.5
| |||||||
Matt Ryan ATL
|
22.3
|
42.4
|
190.13%
|
20.1
|
1
|
12
| |||||||
Matthew Stafford DET
|
20.4
|
37
|
181.37%
|
16.6
|
1
|
16.4
| |||||||
Russell Wilson SEA
|
26.4
|
47.1
|
178.41%
|
20.7
|
7
|
15.5
| |||||||
Colin Kaepernick SF
|
21.7
|
38.4
|
176.96%
|
16.7
|
6
|
16.3
| |||||||
Brian Hoyer CLE
|
15.9
|
27.8
|
174.84%
|
11.9
|
5
|
14.7
| |||||||
Alex Smith KC
|
16.9
|
28.7
|
169.82%
|
11.8
|
4
|
10.9
| |||||||
Blake Bortles JAC
|
14.6
|
24.2
|
165.75%
|
9.6
|
6
|
10.1
| |||||||
Nick Foles PHI
|
21.5
|
35.2
|
163.72%
|
13.7
|
3
|
3.9
| |||||||
Average:
|
16.8
|
13
| |||||||||||
Player
|
Avg
|
Max
|
Max Percent of Average
|
Max Over Average
|
Max Week
|
Week After Max
| |||||||
LeGarrette Blount PIT
|
5.1
|
20.8
|
407.84%
|
15.7
|
3
|
2.5
| |||||||
Denard Robinson JAC
|
6.2
|
21.7
|
350.00%
|
15.5
|
7
|
14.8
| |||||||
Matt Asiata MIN
|
8.1
|
28
|
345.68%
|
19.9
|
4
|
5.2
| |||||||
Theo Riddick DET
|
5
|
14.1
|
282.00%
|
9.1
|
6
|
13.9
| |||||||
Shane Vereen NE
|
8.4
|
23.4
|
278.57%
|
15
|
7
|
4.5
| |||||||
Frank Gore SF
|
9.6
|
26.4
|
275.00%
|
16.8
|
4
|
13.8
| |||||||
Chris Johnson NYJ
|
5.5
|
15.1
|
274.55%
|
9.6
|
1
|
2.1
| |||||||
Pierre Thomas NO
|
8.6
|
23.2
|
269.77%
|
14.6
|
5
|
3
| |||||||
Jerick McKinnon MIN
|
6.8
|
18.2
|
267.65%
|
11.4
|
4
|
4.6
| |||||||
Branden Oliver SD
|
12.6
|
33.2
|
263.49%
|
20.6
|
5
|
21.4
| |||||||
Carlos Hyde SF
|
4.2
|
11
|
261.90%
|
6.8
|
1
|
0.5
| |||||||
Bobby Rainey TB
|
8
|
20.4
|
255.00%
|
12.4
|
2
|
6.5
| |||||||
Darren Sproles PHI
|
11.3
|
28.8
|
254.87%
|
17.5
|
2
|
3
| |||||||
Eddie Lacy GB
|
11.5
|
28.2
|
245.22%
|
16.7
|
5
|
4
| |||||||
Reggie Bush DET
|
6.6
|
15.9
|
240.91%
|
9.3
|
3
|
6.5
| |||||||
Andre Williams NYG
|
6.1
|
14.3
|
234.43%
|
8.2
|
5
|
5.9
| |||||||
Andre Ellington ARI
|
13
|
29.4
|
226.15%
|
16.4
|
5
|
9.3
| |||||||
Bishop Sankey TEN
|
5.3
|
11.7
|
220.75%
|
6.4
|
4
|
2.7
| |||||||
Isaiah Crowell CLE
|
7
|
15.2
|
217.14%
|
8.2
|
1
|
5.7
| |||||||
Rashad Jennings NYG
|
13.2
|
28.6
|
216.67%
|
15.4
|
3
|
5.5
| |||||||
Jeremy Hill CIN
|
7.2
|
15.6
|
216.67%
|
8.4
|
2
|
9.9
| |||||||
Khiry Robinson NO
|
7.3
|
15.7
|
215.07%
|
8.4
|
5
|
0.6
| |||||||
Jamaal Charles KC
|
13.7
|
28.8
|
210.22%
|
15.1
|
4
|
8.4
| |||||||
Alfred Blue HOU
|
4.2
|
8.8
|
209.52%
|
4.6
|
3
|
2.5
| |||||||
Montee Ball DEN
|
6.9
|
14.3
|
207.25%
|
7.4
|
1
|
8.9
| |||||||
Doug Martin TB
|
5.6
|
11.6
|
207.14%
|
6
|
4
|
7.4
| |||||||
Zac Stacy STL
|
5.9
|
12.1
|
205.08%
|
6.2
|
3
|
5.8
| |||||||
Alfred Morris WAS
|
10.1
|
20.5
|
202.97%
|
10.4
|
2
|
7.7
| |||||||
Terrance West CLE
|
7.4
|
15
|
202.70%
|
7.6
|
2
|
10.1
| |||||||
Average:
|
11.7
|
6.5
| |||||||||||
Player
|
Avg
|
Max
|
Max Percent of Average
|
Max Over Average
|
Max Week
|
Week After Max
| |||||||
Allen Hurns JAC
|
7
|
26
|
371.43%
|
19
|
1
|
1.3
| |||||||
Doug Baldwin SEA
|
6.6
|
21.3
|
322.73%
|
14.7
|
7
|
6.1
| |||||||
Calvin Johnson DET
|
10.4
|
33.4
|
321.15%
|
23
|
1
|
8.3
| |||||||
Jordan Matthews PHI
|
5.6
|
17.9
|
319.64%
|
12.3
|
3
|
2.8
| |||||||
Cordarrelle Patterson MIN
|
7.1
|
21.8
|
307.04%
|
14.7
|
1
|
5.6
| |||||||
Robert Woods BUF
|
5.2
|
15.8
|
303.85%
|
10.6
|
6
|
-1
| |||||||
Kenny Stills NO
|
6.5
|
19.3
|
296.92%
|
12.8
|
7
|
5.7
| |||||||
Andre Holmes OAK
|
9.2
|
27.1
|
294.57%
|
17.9
|
6
|
3.4
| |||||||
Eddie Royal SD
|
8.8
|
25.5
|
289.77%
|
16.7
|
4
|
4
| |||||||
Devin Hester ATL
|
5.8
|
16.5
|
284.48%
|
10.7
|
3
|
13
| |||||||
Reggie Wayne IND
|
7.5
|
20.9
|
278.67%
|
13.4
|
4
|
7.7
| |||||||
Pierre Garcon WAS
|
8.2
|
22.8
|
278.05%
|
14.6
|
3
|
2.8
| |||||||
Kendall Wright TEN
|
7.7
|
21
|
272.73%
|
13.3
|
5
|
0.6
| |||||||
Justin Hunter TEN
|
5.9
|
15.9
|
269.49%
|
10
|
5
|
7.7
| |||||||
Brandon Lloyd SF
|
5.2
|
14
|
269.23%
|
8.8
|
6
|
6.3
| |||||||
Julio Jones ATL
|
12.6
|
33.1
|
262.70%
|
20.5
|
3
|
8.2
| |||||||
Brandon Marshall CHI
|
8.7
|
22.8
|
262.07%
|
14.1
|
2
|
0.6
| |||||||
Brian Quick STL
|
7.9
|
20.7
|
262.03%
|
12.8
|
5
|
1
| |||||||
Keenan Allen SD
|
6.5
|
16.5
|
253.85%
|
10
|
4
|
2.5
| |||||||
Torrey Smith BAL
|
6.9
|
17.1
|
247.83%
|
10.2
|
6
|
14.1
| |||||||
T.Y. Hilton IND
|
14.6
|
35.3
|
241.78%
|
20.7
|
6
|
13.7
| |||||||
Vincent Jackson TB
|
7.2
|
17.4
|
241.67%
|
10.2
|
5
|
6.6
| |||||||
Wes Welker DEN
|
4.8
|
11
|
229.17%
|
6.2
|
7
|
0.5
| |||||||
Brandon LaFell NE
|
9.5
|
21.7
|
228.42%
|
12.2
|
6
|
5.5
| |||||||
Steve Smith BAL
|
12.7
|
28.9
|
227.56%
|
16.2
|
4
|
1.4
| |||||||
Malcom Floyd SD
|
8.5
|
19.3
|
227.06%
|
10.8
|
6
|
5
| |||||||
Jordy Nelson GB
|
15.3
|
33.9
|
221.57%
|
18.6
|
2
|
5.9
| |||||||
Demaryius Thomas DEN
|
19
|
41.6
|
218.95%
|
22.6
|
5
|
21.4
| |||||||
Sammy Watkins BUF
|
12.5
|
27.2
|
217.60%
|
14.7
|
7
|
26.7
| |||||||
DeSean Jackson WAS
|
12.4
|
26.7
|
215.32%
|
14.3
|
5
|
21
| |||||||
Anquan Boldin SF
|
7.2
|
15.4
|
213.89%
|
8.2
|
6
|
5
| |||||||
Roddy White ATL
|
9
|
19
|
211.11%
|
10
|
7
|
6.6
| |||||||
Julian Edelman NE
|
7.2
|
15
|
208.33%
|
7.8
|
2
|
8.9
| |||||||
James Jones OAK
|
8.8
|
18.2
|
206.82%
|
9.4
|
2
|
4.3
| |||||||
Terrance Williams DAL
|
9.6
|
19.7
|
205.21%
|
10.1
|
4
|
13.1
| |||||||
Michael Crabtree SF
|
7.2
|
14.4
|
200.00%
|
7.2
|
3
|
4.3
| |||||||
Average:
|
13.3
|
6.9
| |||||||||||
Player
|
Avg
|
Max
|
Max Percent of Average
|
Max Over Average
|
Max Week
|
Week After Max
| |||||||
Jordan Cameron CLE
|
5.7
|
19.2
|
336.84%
|
13.5
|
6
|
0.5
| |||||||
Timothy Wright NE
|
4.5
|
14.5
|
322.22%
|
10
|
5
|
6.1
| |||||||
Larry Donnell NYG
|
7.3
|
23.4
|
320.55%
|
16.1
|
4
|
0.6
| |||||||
Vernon Davis SF
|
5.2
|
16.4
|
315.38%
|
11.2
|
1
|
3.9
| |||||||
Jace Amaro NYJ
|
4.3
|
12.8
|
297.67%
|
8.5
|
6
|
2.2
| |||||||
Niles Paul WAS
|
5.6
|
15.9
|
283.93%
|
10.3
|
2
|
6.8
| |||||||
Scott Chandler BUF
|
4.8
|
13.5
|
281.25%
|
8.7
|
6
|
3.6
| |||||||
Jimmy Graham NO
|
9.8
|
26.8
|
273.47%
|
17
|
2
|
5.4
| |||||||
Josh Hill NO
|
4.3
|
10.8
|
251.16%
|
6.5
|
3
|
7.2
| |||||||
Delanie Walker TEN
|
9.3
|
23.2
|
249.46%
|
13.9
|
2
|
5.4
| |||||||
Clay Harbor JAC
|
6.1
|
15.1
|
247.54%
|
9
|
6
|
3.4
| |||||||
Julius Thomas DEN
|
12.8
|
31.4
|
245.31%
|
18.6
|
1
|
9.9
| |||||||
Antonio Gates SD
|
12
|
27.6
|
230.00%
|
15.6
|
2
|
0.8
| |||||||
Owen Daniels BAL
|
6.5
|
14.8
|
227.69%
|
8.3
|
2
|
0.8
| |||||||
Coby Fleener IND
|
5
|
10.9
|
218.00%
|
5.9
|
3
|
8.6
| |||||||
Zach Ertz PHI
|
6.5
|
13.7
|
210.77%
|
7.2
|
1
|
8.6
| |||||||
Travis Kelce KC
|
7.6
|
15.3
|
201.32%
|
7.7
|
4
|
7.5
| |||||||
Average:
|
11.1
|
4.7
| |||||||||||
