Hello and Welcome to Market Fantasy!
Below are the Market Fantasy consistency rankings. When I first started doing this last year, I rushed to get them out on Tuesday night to combine them with a free agent pickup column. I’ve decided to stop rushing out the free agent column. Partly because there are a billion sites all telling you to pick up the same guys, so you don’t need me to also tell you to pick up an injured RBs backup. Hopefully, you’ve figured that out on your own. I’m not trying for content just for content’s sake. Also, if there are any free agent picks you find in here, you don’t have to waste a waiver claim on them Tuesday night when the majority of claims are processed. These guys you can pick up Wednesday as free agents and save those high claims for the in demand players everyone else is telling you about that you can probably figure out on your own. I’ll just make some quick observations about each position. Good?
Before we get started, let me give you the quick explanation of these rankings. They are based on a combination of a player’s average weekly scoring and the standard deviation of those scores. The idea is to find the players who not only average the highest points on a per week basis, but also deviate the least from that average. These are not meant to be rest of season or even weekly ranks, just an idea of how a player has performed thus far in the season. This is the only place Jay Cutler can top Aaron Rodgers, but don’t go trading Rodgers for Cutler, ok?
Like my post earlier on ceilings and floors, these ranks are meant to give you an idea of what to expect from a player. If a player has a high average score and a high standard deviation, they are not very consistent and their point average has been influenced by a huge game and the rest pedestrian games. The average score and standard deviations have been provided for each player, so use them to make your own decisions about your team and identify players to either unload or trade for.
New for this week, I’ve added the expected floors and ceilings. Remember from my Six Sigma drafting piece, following the standard distribution, a player will achieve over one standard deviation below their average 84% of the time, and will fall under one standard deviation above their average 84% of the time. These will change some on a weekly basis as the average and standard deviations move week to week, but as of now, the numbers below are what we can expect from a certain player.
One last thing to note that I am seeing in these ranks lately. If a player’s floor is below 0, it can just effectively be 0. There are a couple notable names that fall into this category like Donte Moncrief and Branden Oliver. These guys are anomalies to the system I have here and show an inherent problem with using past data to predict the future. They are both players that could very realistically be used this week but had insignificant at best roles to begin the year. This is leading to a situation where they have a low average score from not doing much the last couple weeks, which leads to a high standard deviation now that they are starting to put up decent point totals. Just realize that there is still going to be some inconsistency with these younger players, but that they are getting safer. Anyone who used Moncrief last week knows the very real danger of a goose egg from a guy like this. Beware.
As always, love to hear comments. Thanks for reading!
Inane Comments:
QB: Hopefully, you weren’t planning on Jay Cutler lighting up the Lions to lead you to the fantasy promised land this week. Now that he’s benched, he probably saved you from yourself. There should be some decent options out there for one week, like RGIII, Mark Sanchez, and even Josh McCown…. I’m going to have to make a decision on Russell Wilson next year in a keeper league. I can keep him for one more year as a fifth rounder. I honestly don’t know what to do there. I think that’s probably a round later than where he will go based on performance this year, but I don’t know if I can justify it. I hate to rely on him rushing, and he has no weapons in the passing game. Plus, playing in that division, with those defenses will guarantee him 3 – 4 brutal games a year. I think next year, I really will just wait a long time on QB…. The Ravens and Panthers have both been pretty bad against the pass this year, but I can’t make a case for Case Keenum (especially without DeAndre Hopkins) or Johnny Manziel this week, unless you play in a 32 team league. I’d rather gamble on Kyle Orton against the Raiders if I had to.
RB: I usually ride my bike to work, but today I didn’t because I woke up with a headache. A few days ago, DeMarco Murray broke his hand and had surgery on it a day later. It sounds like there is a good chance he plays tackle football in an NFL game on Sunday. That is nuts. If he’s out, I like Joseph Randle as an RB2 and great value in weekly leagues…. What a down year for LeSean McCoy. Now he’s losing the goal line touches to Chris Polk. Ugh. I can see Polk as a desperation flex if you need someone…. I honestly believe Joique Bell has a better than 50/50 chance to be the number one scoring RB against the Bears this week… Jonathan Stewart gets Cam Newton back most likely this week and gets to face a Browns team that got obliterated by Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard last week. It’s a gamble, but I can see him as a top 12 play easily with no DeAngelo Williams…. One last guy I’ll mention to consider this week is Pierre Thomas. Thomas had a great game against the Bears last week, and gets an almost as soft Falcons team this week. It’s not hard to imagine RB2 numbers at all.
WR: Julio Jones is out, which makes Roddy White and maybe Harry Douglas if he plays great value plays this week against the Saints’ weak defense….. The Rams are a tough defense and all, but there’s just no way I get cute and bench Odell Beckham this week. He’s an everyday guy no matter what….. I think I’d say the same for Alshon Jeffrey even with Clausen at QB. The last thing you want is to lose the title with guys like that on your bench…. Ditto that with Josh Gordon. Yes, Manziel was a mess last week, but he gets a better matchup, has a game under his belt now, and he can’t be any worse. All Manziel really needs to do is throw for 150 yards for Gordon to be useful considering he had 48 yards when Manziel threw for 80…. I’ve seen a lot of talk about using Andre Johnson against the terrible Ravens secondary considering he had all of his TDs last year with Case Keenum at the helm. I get the argument, but there’s too many other plays at WR to make that gamble. He’s not an Alshon or ODB anymore….. Shake off the Jordan Matthews goose egg from last week. He’s getting his against the Redskins this week…. I love both Brandon LaFell and Julian Edelman if they play this week against the Jets. I think Belichick gets a sick pleasure in crushing bad teams…. Marques Colston is finishing strong again this year, and I like his chances to keep it up against the Falcons.
TE: We can’t even count on Jimmy Graham week to week. I quit.
Rank
|
Player
|
Avg
|
StdDev
|
Floor
|
Ceiling
| ||||||
1
|
Drew Brees NO
|
26.3
|
8.17
|
18.13
|
34.47
| ||||||
2
|
Matt Ryan ATL
|
23.6
|
8.02
|
15.58
|
31.62
| ||||||
3
|
Andrew Luck IND
|
31.8
|
9.06
|
22.74
|
40.86
| ||||||
4
|
Tony Romo DAL
|
21.6
|
8.07
|
13.53
|
29.67
| ||||||
5
|
Ryan Tannehill MIA
|
20.3
|
7.44
|
12.86
|
27.74
| ||||||
6
|
Mark Sanchez PHI
|
18.2
|
6.54
|
11.66
|
24.74
| ||||||
7
|
Jay Cutler CHI
|
22.3
|
8.32
|
13.98
|
30.62
| ||||||
8
|
Alex Smith KC
|
17.3
|
6.47
|
10.83
|
23.77
| ||||||
9
|
Peyton Manning DEN
|
27.9
|
11.28
|
16.62
|
39.18
| ||||||
10
|
Aaron Rodgers GB
|
29.1
|
11.40
|
17.70
|
40.50
| ||||||
11
|
Charlie Whitehurst TEN
|
14.3
|
4.07
|
10.23
|
18.37
| ||||||
12
|
Russell Wilson SEA
|
23.6
|
10.83
|
12.77
|
34.43
| ||||||
13
|
Teddy Bridgewater MIN
|
16.4
|
7.47
|
8.93
|
23.87
| ||||||
14
|
Tom Brady NE
|
24.5
|
11.23
|
13.27
|
35.73
| ||||||
15
|
Blake Bortles JAC
|
13.9
|
6.11
|
7.79
|
20.01
| ||||||
16
|
Colin Kaepernick SF
|
16.8
|
8.07
|
8.73
|
24.87
| ||||||
17
|
Cam Newton CAR
|
20.4
|
10.27
|
10.13
|
30.67
| ||||||
18
|
Kyle Orton BUF
|
18.1
|
8.43
|
9.67
|
26.53
| ||||||
19
|
Matthew Stafford DET
|
19.6
|
9.07
|
10.53
|
28.67
| ||||||
20
|
Joe Flacco BAL
|
20.7
|
10.77
|
9.93
|
31.47
| ||||||
21
|
Eli Manning NYG
|
20.3
|
10.36
|
9.94
|
30.66
| ||||||
22
|
Philip Rivers SD
|
21.3
|
11.12
|
10.18
|
32.42
| ||||||
23
|
Ben Roethlisberger PIT
|
26.1
|
15.94
|
10.16
|
42.04
| ||||||
24
|
Josh McCown TB
|
15.8
|
8.29
|
7.51
|
24.09
| ||||||
25
|
Andy Dalton CIN
|
16.8
|
9.74
|
7.06
|
26.54
| ||||||
26
|
Derek Carr OAK
|
14.8
|
8.75
|
6.05
|
23.55
| ||||||
27
|
Ryan Fitzpatrick HOU
|
18.1
|
12.97
|
5.13
|
31.07
| ||||||
28
|
Colt McCoy WAS
|
14.8
|
11.62
|
3.18
|
26.42
| ||||||
Rank
|
Player
|
Avg
|
StdDev
|
Floor
|
Ceiling
| ||||||
1
|
DeMarco Murray DAL
|
21.5
|
5.91
|
15.59
|
27.41
| ||||||
2
|
Lamar Miller MIA
|
10.3
|
4.30
|
6.00
|
14.60
| ||||||
3
|
Fred Jackson BUF
|
8.8
|
3.68
|
5.12
|
12.48
| ||||||
4
|
Ryan Mathews SD
|
10.2
|
5.20
|
5.00
|
15.40
| ||||||
5
|
Kerwynn Williams ARI
|
7.2
|
2.20
|
5.00
|
9.40
| ||||||
6
|
Steven Jackson ATL
|
8.7
|
4.37
|
4.33
|
13.07
| ||||||
7
|
Joique Bell DET
|
11.1
|
6.56
|
4.54
|
17.66
| ||||||
8
|
Matt Forte CHI
|
16.7
|
7.98
|
8.72
|
24.68
| ||||||
9
|
Justin Forsett BAL
|
14.3
|
7.89
|
6.41
|
22.19
| ||||||
10
|
Alfred Morris WAS
|
11
|
6.86
|
4.14
|
17.86
| ||||||
11
|
LeSean McCoy PHI
|
11.2
|
7.05
|
4.15
|
18.25
| ||||||
12
|
Mark Ingram NO
|
13.9
|
8.19
|
5.71
|
22.09
| ||||||
13
|
Eddie Lacy GB
|
15.2
|
8.59
|
6.61
|
23.79
| ||||||
14
|
Arian Foster HOU
|
21.4
|
9.71
|
11.69
|
31.11
| ||||||
15
|
Chris Ivory NYJ
|
8.9
|
5.94
|
2.96
|
14.84
| ||||||
16
|
Jonathan Stewart CAR
|
9.1
|
6.27
|
2.83
|
15.37
| ||||||
17
|
Giovani Bernard CIN
|
11
|
7.25
|
3.75
|
18.25
| ||||||
18
|
Jamaal Charles KC
|
15.7
|
9.19
|
6.51
|
24.89
| ||||||
19
|
Trent Richardson IND
|
6.8
|
4.13
|
2.67
|
10.93
| ||||||
20
|
Doug Martin TB
|
6.2
|
3.94
|
2.26
|
10.14
| ||||||
21
|
Shane Vereen NE
|
7.7
|
5.63
|
2.07
|
13.33
| ||||||
22
|
Bishop Sankey TEN
|
5.2
|
3.14
|
2.06
|
8.34
| ||||||
23
|
Benny Cunningham STL
|
5.4
|
3.58
|
1.82
|
8.98
| ||||||
24
|
Darren McFadden OAK
|
5.5
|
3.59
|
1.91
|
9.09
| ||||||
25
|
Marshawn Lynch SEA
|
17.2
|
9.96
|
7.24
|
27.16
| ||||||
26
|
Le'Veon Bell PIT
|
20.5
|
11.60
|
8.90
|
32.10
| ||||||
27
|
Storm Johnson JAC
|
5.1
|
2.79
|
2.31
|
7.89
| ||||||
28
|
Rashad Jennings NYG
|
10.8
|
8.36
|
2.44
|
19.16
| ||||||
29
|
Chris Johnson NYJ
|
6.4
|
4.59
|
1.81
|
10.99
| ||||||
30
|
Terrance West CLE
|
6.8
|
5.27
|
1.53
|
12.07
| ||||||
31
|
Isaiah Crowell CLE
|
7.5
|
5.72
|
1.78
|
13.22
| ||||||
32
|
Jeremy Hill CIN
|
11.9
|
9.75
|
2.15
|
21.65
| ||||||
33
|
Pierre Thomas NO
|
7.6
|
5.95
|
1.65
|
13.55
| ||||||
34
|
Andre Williams NYG
|
7.6
|
6.22
|
1.38
|
13.82
| ||||||
35
|
Reggie Bush DET
|
5.2
|
4.07
|
1.13
|
9.27
| ||||||
36
|
Frank Gore SF
|
8.4
|
6.63
|
1.77
|
15.03
| ||||||
37
|
Khiry Robinson NO
|
5.7
|
5.21
|
0.49
|
10.91
| ||||||
38
|
Darren Sproles PHI
|
8.7
|
6.89
|
1.81
|
15.59
| ||||||
39
|
Alfred Blue HOU
|
5.2
|
5.12
|
0.08
|
10.32
| ||||||
40
|
Matt Asiata MIN
|
9.1
|
8.64
|
0.46
|
17.74
| ||||||
41
|
Tre Mason STL
|
10.6
|
9.79
|
0.81
|
20.39
| ||||||
42
|
C.J. Anderson DEN
|
10.7
|
11.17
|
-0.47
|
21.87
| ||||||
43
|
Ben Tate MIN
|
6.5
|
6.32
|
0.18
|
12.82
| ||||||
44
|
Jonas Gray NE
|
10.3
|
16.89
|
-6.59
|
27.19
| ||||||
45
|
LeGarrette Blount NE
|
5.7
|
6.34
|
-0.64
|
12.04
| ||||||
46
|
Knile Davis KC
|
7.7
|
8.83
|
-1.13
|
16.53
| ||||||
47
|
Branden Oliver SD
|
7.8
|
9.35
|
-1.55
|
17.15
| ||||||
Rank
|
Player
|
Avg
|
StdDev
|
Floor
|
Ceiling
| ||||||
1
|
Mike Wallace MIA
|
9.4
|
4.04
|
5.36
|
13.44
| ||||||
2
|
Roddy White ATL
|
10.1
|
4.69
|
5.41
|
14.79
| ||||||
3
|
Alshon Jeffery CHI
|
12.1
|
5.72
|
6.38
|
17.82
| ||||||
4
|
Marques Colston NO
|
7.5
|
3.71
|
3.79
|
11.21
| ||||||
5
|
Eric Decker NYJ
|
7.6
|
4.01
|
3.59
|
11.61
| ||||||
6
|
Malcom Floyd SD
|
7.9
|
4.14
|
3.76
|
12.04
| ||||||
7
|
Antonio Brown PIT
|
17.4
|
7.17
|
10.23
|
24.57
| ||||||
8
|
Greg Jennings MIN
|
6.7
|
3.59
|
3.11
|
10.29
| ||||||
9
|
Kelvin Benjamin CAR
|
11.2
|
6.05
|
5.15
|
17.25
| ||||||
10
|
Randall Cobb GB
|
13.1
|
6.55
|
6.55
|
19.65
| ||||||
11
|
Vincent Jackson TB
|
8.2
|
5.34
|
2.86
|
13.54
| ||||||
12
|
Andre Johnson HOU
|
6.1
|
3.41
|
2.69
|
9.51
| ||||||
13
|
Harry Douglas ATL
|
6.8
|
4.70
|
2.10
|
11.50
| ||||||
14
|
Josh Gordon CLE
|
7.2
|
4.98
|
2.22
|
12.18
| ||||||
15
|
Julian Edelman NE
|
10
|
6.49
|
3.51
|
16.49
| ||||||
16
|
James Jones OAK
|
6.8
|
4.80
|
2.00
|
11.60
| ||||||
17
|
Emmanuel Sanders DEN
|
14.1
|
7.66
|
6.44
|
21.76
| ||||||
18
|
Jarvis Landry MIA
|
6.5
|
4.48
|
2.02
|
10.98
| ||||||
19
|
Andrew Hawkins CLE
|
7.1
|
5.08
|
2.02
|
12.18
| ||||||
20
|
Anquan Boldin SF
|
8.5
|
6.07
|
2.43
|
14.57
| ||||||
21
|
Torrey Smith BAL
|
7.9
|
5.93
|
1.97
|
13.83
| ||||||
22
|
Dez Bryant DAL
|
14.9
|
8.79
|
6.11
|
23.69
| ||||||
23
|
Odell Beckham NYG
|
17
|
9.16
|
7.84
|
26.16
| ||||||
24
|
Dwayne Bowe KC
|
5.1
|
2.41
|
2.69
|
7.51
| ||||||
25
|
Mohamed Sanu CIN
|
9.1
|
6.76
|
2.34
|
15.86
| ||||||
26
|
Golden Tate DET
|
12
|
7.50
|
4.50
|
19.50
| ||||||
27
|
Markus Wheaton PIT
|
5.3
|
3.52
|
1.78
|
8.82
| ||||||
28
|
Rueben Randle NYG
|
5.7
|
3.73
|
1.97
|
9.43
| ||||||
29
|
Michael Crabtree SF
|
6.4
|
4.81
|
1.59
|
11.21
| ||||||
30
|
A.J. Green CIN
|
13.6
|
9.09
|
4.51
|
22.69
| ||||||
31
|
Martavis Bryant PIT
|
12.1
|
8.49
|
3.61
|
20.59
| ||||||
32
|
T.Y. Hilton IND
|
14.5
|
9.91
|
4.59
|
24.41
| ||||||
33
|
Jordy Nelson GB
|
16.3
|
10.24
|
6.06
|
26.54
| ||||||
34
|
Demaryius Thomas DEN
|
16.9
|
10.87
|
6.03
|
27.77
| ||||||
35
|
Nate Washington TEN
|
5.6
|
4.42
|
1.18
|
10.02
| ||||||
36
|
Michael Floyd ARI
|
6.6
|
5.62
|
0.98
|
12.22
| ||||||
37
|
Kendall Wright TEN
|
8.2
|
6.79
|
1.41
|
14.99
| ||||||
38
|
Brandon LaFell NE
|
9.1
|
7.17
|
1.93
|
16.27
| ||||||
39
|
Jeremy Maclin PHI
|
14.2
|
10.14
|
4.06
|
24.34
| ||||||
40
|
Julio Jones ATL
|
15.6
|
10.73
|
4.87
|
26.33
| ||||||
41
|
Cecil Shorts JAC
|
5.4
|
4.56
|
0.84
|
9.96
| ||||||
42
|
Terrance Williams DAL
|
6.2
|
5.28
|
0.92
|
11.48
| ||||||
43
|
Kenny Stills NO
|
8
|
7.14
|
0.86
|
15.14
| ||||||
44
|
Steve Smith BAL
|
9.9
|
8.44
|
1.46
|
18.34
| ||||||
45
|
DeSean Jackson WAS
|
11.1
|
8.80
|
2.30
|
19.90
| ||||||
46
|
Mike Evans TB
|
13.4
|
10.23
|
3.17
|
23.63
| ||||||
47
|
Doug Baldwin SEA
|
6.3
|
5.59
|
0.71
|
11.89
| ||||||
48
|
DeAndre Hopkins HOU
|
11.9
|
9.84
|
2.06
|
21.74
| ||||||
49
|
Charles Johnson MIN
|
6.5
|
5.97
|
0.53
|
12.47
| ||||||
50
|
Jordan Matthews PHI
|
8.5
|
7.95
|
0.55
|
16.45
| ||||||
51
|
Kenny Britt STL
|
5.9
|
5.46
|
0.44
|
11.36
| ||||||
52
|
Eddie Royal SD
|
7
|
6.72
|
0.28
|
13.72
| ||||||
53
|
Calvin Johnson DET
|
13.2
|
11.41
|
1.79
|
24.61
| ||||||
54
|
Percy Harvin NYJ
|
6.7
|
6.36
|
0.34
|
13.06
| ||||||
55
|
Keenan Allen SD
|
7.7
|
7.36
|
0.34
|
15.06
| ||||||
56
|
John Brown ARI
|
6.6
|
6.11
|
0.49
|
12.71
| ||||||
57
|
Stedman Bailey STL
|
4.7
|
4.71
|
-0.01
|
9.41
| ||||||
58
|
Sammy Watkins BUF
|
9.1
|
8.98
|
0.12
|
18.08
| ||||||
59
|
Reggie Wayne IND
|
6.1
|
5.75
|
0.35
|
11.85
| ||||||
60
|
Larry Fitzgerald ARI
|
7.5
|
7.37
|
0.13
|
14.87
| ||||||
61
|
Robert Woods BUF
|
5.8
|
6.01
|
-0.21
|
11.81
| ||||||
62
|
Pierre Garcon WAS
|
6.1
|
6.09
|
0.01
|
12.19
| ||||||
63
|
Devin Hester ATL
|
5
|
5.68
|
-0.68
|
10.68
| ||||||
64
|
Allen Hurns JAC
|
7.5
|
8.28
|
-0.78
|
15.78
| ||||||
65
|
Andre Holmes OAK
|
6.3
|
7.00
|
-0.70
|
13.30
| ||||||
66
|
Jarius Wright MIN
|
5
|
6.73
|
-1.73
|
11.73
| ||||||
67
|
Donte Moncrief IND
|
4.9
|
9.29
|
-4.39
|
14.19
| ||||||
Rank
|
Player
|
Avg
|
StdDev
|
Floor
|
Ceiling
| ||||||
1
|
Dwayne Allen IND
|
7.3
|
3.49
|
3.81
|
10.79
| ||||||
2
|
Greg Olsen CAR
|
10.1
|
5.26
|
4.84
|
15.36
| ||||||
3
|
Jason Witten DAL
|
5.7
|
3.32
|
2.38
|
9.02
| ||||||
4
|
Travis Kelce KC
|
7.3
|
4.07
|
3.23
|
11.37
| ||||||
5
|
Martellus Bennett CHI
|
9.4
|
5.34
|
4.06
|
14.74
| ||||||
6
|
Zach Ertz PHI
|
4.9
|
3.97
|
0.93
|
8.87
| ||||||
7
|
Owen Daniels BAL
|
5.5
|
4.43
|
1.07
|
9.93
| ||||||
8
|
Jimmy Graham NO
|
9.5
|
7.11
|
2.39
|
16.61
| ||||||
9
|
Rob Gronkowski NE
|
13.2
|
7.69
|
5.51
|
20.89
| ||||||
10
|
Kyle Rudolph MIN
|
4.4
|
2.25
|
2.15
|
6.65
| ||||||
11
|
Charles Clay MIA
|
4.7
|
3.58
|
1.12
|
8.28
| ||||||
12
|
Heath Miller PIT
|
6.2
|
5.27
|
0.93
|
11.47
| ||||||
13
|
Delanie Walker TEN
|
8.6
|
6.77
|
1.83
|
15.37
| ||||||
14
|
Julius Thomas DEN
|
11
|
9.06
|
1.94
|
20.06
| ||||||
15
|
Jared Cook STL
|
5.3
|
5.01
|
0.29
|
10.31
| ||||||
16
|
Antonio Gates SD
|
9
|
7.46
|
1.54
|
16.46
| ||||||
17
|
Larry Donnell NYG
|
6
|
6.07
|
-0.07
|
12.07
| ||||||
18
|
Coby Fleener IND
|
7.9
|
7.27
|
0.63
|
15.17
| ||||||
19
|
Marcedes Lewis JAC
|
4.4
|
4.39
|
0.01
|
8.79
| ||||||
20
|
Jordan Reed WAS
|
4.7
|
4.52
|
0.18
|
9.22
| ||||||
21
|
Mychal Rivera OAK
|
5.4
|
6.11
|
-0.71
|
11.51
| ||||||
22
|
Jordan Cameron CLE
|
4.8
|
5.64
|
-0.84
|
10.44
|
