Hello and Welcome to Market Fantasy!
When I started Market Fantasy last year, the objective was
to take fantasy sports analysis and go completely mathematical about it. I
wanted to try to have as little bias as possible creep in. So far, I think I’ve
done a fairly decent job and have yielded some hits (Alshon Jeffery) and misses
(Marques Colston). I read a lot of
fantasy analysts and the recurring theme with the “numbers” guys is I get the
feeling reading some of their columns that they’re just throwing out stats to
sound smart and really have no idea what they’re talking about. The numbers
have absolutely no correlation to each other. I read a column recently where
the analyst stated that John Lackey had a high K/BB rate in Boston despite
Fenway increasing runs scored by whatever percentage. A high strikeout rate has
absolutely nothing to do with how much a park increases runs scored. Nothing.
But I digress. Hopefully, by reading this blog, you’ve learned a little about
statistical analysis, where to spot nonsense, and impartial observation.
Today, I’m taking a left turn and going full homer on you.
I’m sure you can tell by my profile picture that I’m a huge Bears fan. I’m
completely, 100%, unabashedly all-in on the Bears offense this year. Brandon
Marshall and Alshon Jeffery shouldn’t last past the second round. Jay Cutler
should be in for a career year. While watching this Bears team, what with their
video game offense and sieve of a defense, is like living in a bizarro NFL
world, I’ll gladly take it. All this Bears bullishness leads me to the point of
this post. Matt Forte is your number two pick this year in standard and PPR
leagues. There’s a clear cut top four or five RB (depending how you feel about
Lacy), and if you pick either of them first, no one is going to fault you. In my
mind, however, there is Jamaal Charles at #1 and Matt Forte at #2. After that,
do whatever you like. Most sites I read have a 1 – 2 punch of Charles and Shady
McCoy, but I can’t get behind McCoy over Forte at all. Below is my case for
Matt Forte as your #2 overall pick. Hell, when I’m done, I’ll probably end up
drafting him #1 overall.
Competition and Team
Setup
At first blush, it seems silly to talk about competition for
two of the top players at their position. The Eagles have made some interesting
moves lately, however, in regard to this and I think they could have an impact.
First, we’ll start with Forte. He has no competition. None. Shaun Draughn isn’t
good and Ka’Deem Carey is a rookie who shouldn’t have much of an impact. It’s
also important to note what the Bears figured out about bothering to give Forte
competition last year. At the beginning of the year, Michael Bush was supposed
to be the goal line back and poach all the touchdowns as well as provide a
change of pace. That’s not really how it ended up working out. Bush received 63
carries despite appearing in every game. He never received more than 8 carries
in a game and poached three TDs.
Going into the year, the thought was that Matt Forte was
ineffective at the goal line, but last year, his 60 touches inside the red zone
led all of football. This led to a career high 9 rushing TDs and 12 TDs
overall. With this increased emphasis the Bears gave Forte at the goal line,
there should be no reason to expect that anything will change. In fact, his
biggest competition for TDs is probably the Bears’ awesome WR duo of Marshall
and Jeffery, but the Bears will still have plenty of Forte in the red zone. I
expect another 9-10 rushing TDs from Forte with another 3 receiving thrown in.
As for the rest of the Bears’ offense, it’s pretty good.
Last year, in the first year of Marc Trestman’s offense, the Bears threw for
4450 yards and 32 TDs and rushed for 1828 yards and 13 TDs. With improvements
on the offensive line, and the duo of Marshall and Jeffery stretching the
field, Forte should easily justify the #2 pick.
On the other hand, Philadelphia just added pass catching
specialist Darren Sproles to the backfield. This will no doubt limit McCoy’s
catches, which were a big part of his value last year when he caught 52 balls
for 539 yards and two touchdowns. The last three years, Sproles has caught no
less than 71 passes for 604 yards. Don’t underestimate the impact those
receptions going to McCoy will have on his value. He’ll still be involved in the passing game, but not nearly
as much as in the past.
The other side of the coin is carries. Last year, Shady had
a career high 314 totes, leading the league. Word out of Philly is that Sproles
will garner some carries, and don’t forget about the intriguing addition of
Kenjon Barner from Carolina. I know last year, Bryce Brown had 75 carries and
McCoy still led the league. That’s not the point. The point is he now has two
backs that the Phillies actively went out and got to steal carries. Prior to
last year, McCoy’s previous high in carries was 273. Last year, McCoy only outscored Forte by 17 fantasy points.
Even a slight dip in usage would be enough to tip the scales Forte’s way.
Like the Bears, this Philly offense will hang some points on
people. A lot of points. I’m a
believer in Nick Foles and the passing game as well. Jeremy Maclin is very good
and TE Zach Ertz looks primed for a breakout. Chip Kelly likes to run a high tempo offense that runs a lot
of plays, but the Eagles only ranked 12th in the league last year in
offensive plays. McCoy will still be a big part of that, but I think he has
more competition
Injuries
Both of these players might get a bit of a reputation,
deserved or not, as injury prone thanks to a couple big injuries for each.
Since 2010, however, McCoy has missed 6 games while Forte has missed 5. That’s
pretty good. I wouldn’t call either of these backs an injury risk, any more
than all NFL players are injury risks. What I will say, however, is that McCoy
is already dealing with some worrisome nagging injuries. He’s reportedly been
dealing with a thumb injury that’s not thought to be a big deal, and turf toe.
Turf toe tends to be an injury that lingers and can be especially harmful to
running backs. Turf toe is a strain of a ligament in the toe, making it very
painful to cut or even run. It’s things like this that could limit McCoy’s
workload or even force him to miss games. Forte, on the other hand is
completely healthy.
Conclusion
From where we are looking right now, it’s going to be hard
to mess up the number two pick. You’re going to get an RB that is great. For my
money, I just think that Forte will be a little better than McCoy. And when it
comes down to it, that’s all we’re looking for, who will score the most points.
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