Hello and
Welcome to Market Fantasy!
This week marks the return of my consistency rankings. It’s
not ideal, but I figured four weeks’ worth of data is a good enough time to
wait to post these rankings again. That, and I really haven’t had time to
update the site lately.
Before we get started, let me give you the quick explanation
of these rankings. They are based on a combination of a player’s average weekly
scoring and the standard deviation of those scores. The idea is to find the
players who not only average the highest points on a per week basis, but also
deviate the least from that average. These are not meant to be rest of season
or even weekly ranks, just an idea of how a player has performed thus far in
the season. Terrance West tops Demarco Murray in these rankings, but don’t
trade Murray for West, ok?
Like my post
earlier on ceilings and floors, these ranks are meant to give you an idea of
what to expect from a player. If a player has a high average score and a high
standard deviation, they are not very consistent and their point average has
been influenced by a huge game and the rest pedestrian games. The average score
and standard deviations have been provided for each player, so use them to make
your own decisions about your team and identify players to either unload or trade
for.
As always, love to hear comments. Thanks for reading!
QB
|
|
Player
|
Avg
|
StDev
|
|
1
|
Drew Brees NO
|
22.8
|
2.94
|
|
2
|
Andrew Luck IND
|
35.6
|
7.13
|
|
3
|
Jay Cutler CHI
|
25
|
5.21
|
|
4
|
Colin Kaepernick SF
|
20.3
|
3.71
|
|
5
|
Philip Rivers SD
|
26.2
|
8.19
|
|
6
|
EJ Manuel BUF
|
17.2
|
1.53
|
|
7
|
Ryan Fitzpatrick HOU
|
17
|
2.65
|
|
8
|
Ryan Tannehill MIA
|
17.9
|
3.99
|
|
9
|
Joe Flacco BAL
|
22
|
7.73
|
|
10
|
Alex Smith KC
|
20
|
7.11
|
|
11
|
Geno Smith NYJ
|
16.2
|
3.70
|
|
12
|
Matt Ryan ATL
|
27.6
|
10.82
|
|
13
|
Tony Romo DAL
|
18.7
|
7.58
|
|
14
|
Russell Wilson SEA
|
23.5
|
1.81
|
|
15
|
Peyton Manning DEN
|
27.9
|
0.70
|
|
16
|
Carson Palmer ARI
|
28.1
|
13.25
|
|
17
|
Brian Hoyer CLE
|
15.7
|
1.43
|
|
18
|
Andy Dalton CIN
|
17.6
|
4.30
|
|
19
|
Ben Roethlisberger PIT
|
20.2
|
9.03
|
|
20
|
Tom Brady NE
|
11.5
|
3.24
|
|
21
|
Charlie Whitehurst TEN
|
15.1
|
6.54
|
|
22
|
Aaron Rodgers GB
|
25.4
|
13.38
|
|
23
|
Derek Carr OAK
|
13
|
5.53
|
|
24
|
Cam Newton CAR
|
16.8
|
7.74
|
|
25
|
Eli Manning NYG
|
23.1
|
12.53
|
|
26
|
Nick Foles PHI
|
20.9
|
11.14
|
|
27
|
Blake Bortles JAC
|
17.2
|
8.81
|
|
28
|
Mike Glennon TB
|
18.9
|
10.42
|
|
29
|
Matthew Stafford DET
|
22.2
|
12.56
|
|
30
|
Kirk Cousins WAS
|
22.7
|
14.75
|
|
31
|
Teddy Bridgewater MIN
|
17.5
|
10.78
|
|
32
|
Jake Locker TEN
|
14.9
|
8.64
|
|
33
|
Chad Henne JAC
|
12.1
|
8.85
|
|
34
|
Drew Stanton ARI
|
15
|
9.84
|
|
35
|
Josh McCown TB
|
12
|
8.88
|
|
36
|
Austin Davis STL
|
15.1
|
10.74
|
The two most consistent QBs in terms of standard deviation
are Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson. Look at those tiny standard deviations.
You basically look at that average and bank on it every week. There’s a lot to
be said for that. People are down on Drew Brees and the Saints in general, but
he tops the list with a decent average and a small standard deviation. He
hasn’t given you the monster game yet, but he hasn’t killed you by a long shot
either. Matt Ryan is an interesting case here. Monster week 1, bad week 2 and
good weeks 3 and 4. High standard deviation due to weeks 1 and 2, but the
average is nice and doesn’t look out of whack despite the wide variance in the
first two weeks. It’s surprising to see Aaron Rodgers so low, but his stinker
in week 2 killed his standard deviation. He’s been great the other three weeks.
Finally, look at Brady. At least he’s been consistent, even if it’s
consistently bad.
RB
|
|
Player
|
Avg
|
StDev
|
|
1
|
Terrance West CLE
|
12.7
|
2.01
|
|
2
|
DeMarco Murray DAL
|
24.6
|
4.15
|
|
3
|
C.J. Spiller BUF
|
10.2
|
3.04
|
|
4
|
Zac Stacy STL
|
9.4
|
3.09
|
|
5
|
Chris Ivory NYJ
|
12.3
|
3.97
|
|
6
|
Andre Ellington ARI
|
7.9
|
1.69
|
|
7
|
Giovani Bernard CIN
|
17.1
|
4.86
|
|
8
|
Isaiah Crowell CLE
|
10.8
|
3.91
|
|
9
|
Justin Forsett BAL
|
10.9
|
4.13
|
|
10
|
Lamar Miller MIA
|
12.5
|
4.57
|
|
11
|
Marshawn Lynch SEA
|
21.5
|
6.59
|
|
12
|
Ahmad Bradshaw IND
|
13.9
|
4.90
|
|
13
|
Steven Jackson ATL
|
7
|
2.56
|
|
14
|
Roy Helu WAS
|
7.5
|
2.97
|
|
15
|
Adrian Peterson MIN
|
9.3
|
4.03
|
|
16
|
Trent Richardson IND
|
9.1
|
4.06
|
|
17
|
Alfred Morris WAS
|
13.1
|
5.09
|
|
18
|
Le'Veon Bell PIT
|
17.2
|
7.36
|
|
19
|
Fred Jackson BUF
|
9.6
|
4.58
|
|
20
|
Antone Smith ATL
|
8.8
|
4.19
|
|
21
|
Mark Ingram NO
|
17.2
|
8.65
|
|
22
|
Darrel Young WAS
|
5.6
|
2.83
|
|
23
|
Darren McFadden OAK
|
7.1
|
3.80
|
|
24
|
Toby Gerhart JAC
|
5.4
|
2.31
|
|
25
|
Khiry Robinson NO
|
6.8
|
3.54
|
|
26
|
Knile Davis KC
|
14.5
|
8.51
|
|
27
|
Joique Bell DET
|
6.6
|
3.33
|
|
28
|
Shane Vereen NE
|
6.9
|
3.78
|
|
29
|
Matt Forte CHI
|
12.1
|
6.70
|
|
30
|
Rashad Jennings NYG
|
14.7
|
8.84
|
|
31
|
Eddie Lacy GB
|
6.2
|
3.50
|
|
32
|
Arian Foster HOU
|
14.4
|
8.91
|
|
33
|
DeAngelo Williams CAR
|
5.3
|
2.97
|
|
34
|
Pierre Thomas NO
|
6.4
|
3.72
|
|
35
|
Reggie Bush DET
|
8
|
4.75
|
|
36
|
Ryan Mathews SD
|
8.8
|
4.95
|
|
37
|
Shonn Greene TEN
|
5.3
|
3.14
|
|
38
|
Montee Ball DEN
|
8.5
|
4.87
|
|
39
|
Darren Sproles PHI
|
13.2
|
9.91
|
|
40
|
Jonathan Dwyer ARI
|
5.9
|
3.81
|
|
41
|
Jeremy Hill CIN
|
9.1
|
5.62
|
|
42
|
Jonathan Stewart CAR
|
6.9
|
4.31
|
|
43
|
Matt Asiata MIN
|
12.8
|
9.92
|
|
44
|
Chris Johnson NYJ
|
8.2
|
5.55
|
|
45
|
Frank Gore SF
|
11.9
|
9.48
|
|
46
|
Knowshon Moreno MIA
|
11.4
|
9.64
|
|
47
|
Carlos Hyde SF
|
5.4
|
4.09
|
|
48
|
LeSean McCoy PHI
|
7.9
|
6.18
|
|
49
|
Joe McKnight KC
|
9.3
|
8.10
|
|
50
|
Bobby Rainey TB
|
8.7
|
7.01
|
|
51
|
Jamaal Charles KC
|
11.1
|
11.87
|
|
52
|
Doug Martin TB
|
6.6
|
4.84
|
|
53
|
Bishop Sankey TEN
|
5.4
|
4.38
|
|
54
|
Stevan Ridley NE
|
7.7
|
6.72
|
|
55
|
Bernard Pierce BAL
|
5
|
4.50
|
|
56
|
LeGarrette Blount PIT
|
7.7
|
7.87
|
|
57
|
Lorenzo Taliaferro BAL
|
6.7
|
6.83
|
|
58
|
Jerick McKinnon MIN
|
5.1
|
7.57
|
A lot of interesting things going on in the RB ranks. Look
at the top 10.Two Browns averaging over 10 points per game? Tate is coming back
possibly this week, but I think Crowell is the one who holds his value between
him and West. He’s getting the coach’s praise and should be the goal line back
regardless. You can probably get him cheap. Lamar Miller has been great too,
but with Moreno expected back soon, he’s probably going back to being a
committee back. Sell if you can. Look at how bad some RBs drafted in the top of
the position have been. Ball, Bush, McCoy, Bell, Vereen all have low averages.
And Toby Gerhart blows out loud. Maybe it’s just his team. Either way, what a
bust. Don’t be fooled by Rashad Jennings’ low rank, he basically sat out the second
half the last Thursday’s laugher. He’s been great and underrated. I’m buying.
WR
|
|
Player
|
Avg
|
StDev
|
|
1
|
Mike Wallace MIA
|
10.4
|
1.45
|
|
2
|
DeAndre Hopkins HOU
|
12.5
|
2.68
|
|
3
|
Brian Quick STL
|
9.8
|
1.96
|
|
4
|
Emmanuel Sanders DEN
|
13.5
|
3.72
|
|
5
|
Andrew Hawkins CLE
|
8.1
|
0.80
|
|
6
|
Mohamed Sanu CIN
|
11.2
|
4.25
|
|
7
|
Percy Harvin SEA
|
7.7
|
2.53
|
|
8
|
Alshon Jeffery CHI
|
9.4
|
3.85
|
|
9
|
Vincent Jackson TB
|
6.3
|
2.15
|
|
10
|
Golden Tate DET
|
8.8
|
3.80
|
|
11
|
Dez Bryant DAL
|
12.5
|
5.13
|
|
12
|
Kelvin Benjamin CAR
|
13.5
|
5.73
|
|
13
|
Markus Wheaton PIT
|
6.2
|
2.23
|
|
14
|
T.Y. Hilton IND
|
8.2
|
3.65
|
|
15
|
Antonio Brown PIT
|
20.1
|
6.69
|
|
16
|
Louis Murphy TB
|
9.9
|
4.29
|
|
17
|
Demaryius Thomas DEN
|
7.4
|
3.42
|
|
18
|
Andre Johnson HOU
|
6.1
|
2.58
|
|
19
|
Eric Decker NYJ
|
8.1
|
4.00
|
|
20
|
James Jones OAK
|
10.1
|
5.07
|
|
21
|
Mike Evans TB
|
6.6
|
3.47
|
|
22
|
Julian Edelman NE
|
9.4
|
4.66
|
|
23
|
Jeremy Maclin PHI
|
14.6
|
7.69
|
|
24
|
Steve Smith BAL
|
17.5
|
8.19
|
|
25
|
Brian Hartline MIA
|
5.5
|
2.48
|
|
26
|
Wes Welker DEN
|
6
|
2.83
|
|
27
|
Miles Austin CLE
|
7.8
|
4.13
|
|
28
|
Anquan Boldin SF
|
5.8
|
2.63
|
|
29
|
Michael Floyd ARI
|
10.5
|
6.06
|
|
30
|
Andre Roberts WAS
|
5.4
|
2.47
|
|
31
|
Roddy White ATL
|
10.2
|
5.77
|
|
32
|
Terrance Williams DAL
|
10.5
|
6.30
|
|
33
|
Harry Douglas ATL
|
6
|
2.95
|
|
34
|
Randall Cobb GB
|
14.9
|
8.61
|
|
35
|
Jerricho Cotchery CAR
|
5.9
|
3.11
|
|
36
|
Greg Jennings MIN
|
6.6
|
4.06
|
|
37
|
Jordy Nelson GB
|
18.5
|
11.76
|
|
38
|
Devin Hester ATL
|
9.9
|
6.07
|
|
39
|
Julio Jones ATL
|
17.2
|
9.50
|
|
40
|
Malcom Floyd SD
|
7.7
|
4.46
|
|
41
|
Michael Crabtree SF
|
8.8
|
5.49
|
|
42
|
Victor Cruz NYG
|
10.5
|
6.73
|
|
43
|
Kendall Wright TEN
|
5.4
|
3.04
|
|
44
|
John Brown ARI
|
9.7
|
5.82
|
|
45
|
Brandin Cooks NO
|
7.7
|
4.76
|
|
46
|
Eddie Royal SD
|
12.7
|
9.00
|
|
47
|
Kenny Stills NO
|
4.2
|
2.24
|
|
48
|
Dwayne Bowe KC
|
5.1
|
2.89
|
|
49
|
Brandon Marshall CHI
|
10.6
|
8.01
|
|
50
|
Cecil Shorts JAC
|
6
|
3.89
|
|
51
|
Steve Johnson SF
|
6.6
|
4.25
|
|
52
|
Ricardo Lockette SEA
|
6.6
|
4.55
|
|
53
|
Reggie Wayne IND
|
9.9
|
6.80
|
|
54
|
Calvin Johnson DET
|
12.8
|
12.25
|
|
55
|
Allen Hurns JAC
|
11.6
|
9.18
|
|
56
|
A.J. Green CIN
|
11.9
|
9.27
|
|
57
|
Marques Colston NO
|
6.4
|
4.44
|
|
58
|
Allen Robinson JAC
|
4.8
|
3.20
|
|
59
|
Cordarrelle Patterson MIN
|
9.3
|
7.25
|
|
60
|
Travis Benjamin CLE
|
4.6
|
3.44
|
|
61
|
Keenan Allen SD
|
6.8
|
5.73
|
|
62
|
Rueben Randle NYG
|
5.4
|
4.12
|
|
63
|
Sammy Watkins BUF
|
8.7
|
7.44
|
|
64
|
Austin Pettis STL
|
4.5
|
3.59
|
|
65
|
Torrey Smith BAL
|
5
|
3.93
|
|
66
|
Jeremy Kerley NYJ
|
6
|
5.07
|
|
67
|
Pierre Garcon WAS
|
8.6
|
8.53
|
|
68
|
Hakeem Nicks IND
|
5.5
|
4.89
|
|
69
|
Rod Streater OAK
|
4.8
|
4.22
|
|
70
|
Jordan Matthews PHI
|
6.5
|
6.61
|
|
71
|
DeSean Jackson WAS
|
7.4
|
7.92
|
|
72
|
Andre Holmes OAK
|
5.2
|
5.00
|
|
73
|
Brandon LaFell NE
|
6.4
|
8.59
|
|
74
|
Mike Williams BUF
|
4.8
|
5.65
|
|
75
|
Jarius Wright MIN
|
5
|
6.54
|
Look at the top 10 WRs. Only a few are above flex level, but
those are solid flex scores on any team. Quick, Hawkins and Tate all are solid
flex plays with the RB position such a wasteland. It’s looking like it’s time
to buy into DeAndre Hopkins as well. Andre Johnson isn’t going anywhere, but he
never scores, and Hopkins looks to be the red zone threat in Houston now.
Emmanuel Sanders is looking awesome in Denver, but there’s still a lot of
mouths to feed there. Demariyus Thomas and Wes Welker will be fine going
forward. I’d sell Sanders if I can get top 10 WR value for him, but otherwise,
you might as well hold. He’ll still be good, just not this good. I don’t need
to tell you to ignore the variance on Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall as
they’re both hurt. Jordy Nelson is still awesome as well. He got hurt by that
week 2 debacle like the rest of the Packers’ offense. Is this the year Mike Wallace puts it together for Miami?
It’s sure looking that way. That low standard deviation would suggest that he’s
no longer only a home run threat. What to make of Eddie Royal? He should
provide flex value, but he’s very TD dependent. He’s not in my WR2 conversation
yet though, especially with Keenan Allen breaking through last week. Allen will
be fine, Royal is almost at the end of his annual four games of relevance
streak. Lastly, what do we do with Cordarrelle Patterson, Torrey Smith and
Pierre Garcon? I’ve never bought the Smith hype, and am glad to not own him
anywhere this year. I have to believe that Patterson will get better, but maybe
he’s just going to be a Devin Hester (please don’t buy him by the way) type
better athlete than player. He’s just a flex right now. Pierre Garcon too. He’s
still getting a ton of targets, but not catching as much. Blame bad QB play.
TE
|
|
Player
|
Avg
|
StDev
|
|
1
|
Dwayne Allen IND
|
8.1
|
1.13
|
|
2
|
Martellus Bennett CHI
|
14.1
|
3.03
|
|
3
|
Jared Cook STL
|
5.9
|
1.20
|
|
4
|
Travis Kelce KC
|
9.5
|
3.77
|
|
5
|
Rob Gronkowski NE
|
8.2
|
2.91
|
|
6
|
Jacob Tamme DEN
|
4.9
|
0.90
|
|
7
|
Niles Paul WAS
|
8.8
|
4.10
|
|
8
|
Delanie Walker TEN
|
13.2
|
6.61
|
|
9
|
Greg Olsen CAR
|
9.3
|
4.53
|
|
10
|
Kyle Rudolph MIN
|
5.2
|
2.00
|
|
11
|
Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB
|
3.5
|
0.90
|
|
12
|
Josh Hill NO
|
4.5
|
1.80
|
|
13
|
Daniel Fells NYG
|
5.5
|
2.84
|
|
14
|
Julius Thomas DEN
|
16.3
|
10.69
|
|
15
|
Marcedes Lewis JAC
|
8.3
|
4.80
|
|
16
|
Jason Witten DAL
|
3.9
|
1.77
|
|
17
|
Garrett Graham HOU
|
3.2
|
0.66
|
|
18
|
Jimmy Graham NO
|
13.2
|
8.23
|
|
19
|
Larry Donnell NYG
|
11.4
|
7.65
|
|
20
|
Jordan Cameron CLE
|
3.5
|
1.20
|
|
21
|
Antonio Gates SD
|
9.9
|
10.57
|
|
22
|
Zach Ertz PHI
|
6.5
|
5.00
|
|
23
|
Coby Fleener IND
|
5.7
|
4.12
|
|
24
|
Dennis Pitta BAL
|
4.2
|
3.01
|
|
25
|
Anthony Fasano KC
|
3.8
|
2.81
|
|
26
|
Vernon Davis SF
|
7
|
6.74
|
|
27
|
Heath Miller PIT
|
5.9
|
5.12
|
|
28
|
Lance Kendricks STL
|
4.2
|
3.37
|
|
29
|
Eric Ebron DET
|
3.3
|
2.80
|
|
30
|
Owen Daniels BAL
|
5.8
|
5.34
|
|
31
|
Andrew Quarless GB
|
3.4
|
4.12
|
Martellus Bennett is an interesting player. He’s been mostly
dominant, especially in the red zone. Cutler seems to love him, but I still see
him as a sell high. Last year, he wasn’t nearly this good and I have to figure
that once Marshall gets back to being healthy, Bennett will fade again. I think
I have to buy Dwayne Allen, however. I’ve never been a believer in TY Hilton
and Allen could certainly be one of the top two receivers on that team. He’s
not going to score 16 TDs, but I don’t think his TD total of three already is a
fluke either. He was breaking out last year before he got hurt. Julius Thomas
is low due to a massive game and two good games, throwing off his standard
deviation, but he’s awesome. I can’t imaging Larry Donnell is still out there,
but you need to get him. Manning loves him and he’s got no competition in that
offense outside of Victor Cruz. I beat the drum for Delanie Walker and Greg
Olsen all last year, and here they are again near the top. Nothing fancy, but a
high floor, which is what I generally look for at TE in the draft.
DST
|
|
Player
|
Avg
|
StDev
|
|
1
|
Chargers SD
|
13.8
|
2.86
|
|
2
|
Lions DET
|
16.2
|
5.85
|
|
3
|
Jets NYJ
|
12
|
2.00
|
|
4
|
Bengals CIN
|
16
|
7.04
|
|
5
|
Buccaneers TB
|
11.5
|
3.84
|
|
6
|
Bills BUF
|
14.8
|
7.66
|
|
7
|
Chiefs KC
|
12.5
|
7.26
|
|
8
|
Texans HOU
|
15
|
8.06
|
|
9
|
Broncos DEN
|
10.7
|
4.90
|
|
10
|
Cowboys DAL
|
10.8
|
5.17
|
|
11
|
Giants NYG
|
12
|
6.48
|
|
12
|
Packers GB
|
9
|
3.61
|
|
13
|
Eagles PHI
|
15.5
|
9.53
|
|
14
|
49ers SF
|
12.5
|
8.05
|
|
15
|
Dolphins MIA
|
13.5
|
8.17
|
|
16
|
Bears CHI
|
12.5
|
8.65
|
|
17
|
Patriots NE
|
15.5
|
12.82
|
|
18
|
Cardinals ARI
|
12
|
8.06
|
|
19
|
Raiders OAK
|
7
|
4.58
|
|
20
|
Rams STL
|
6
|
4.56
|
|
21
|
Jaguars JAC
|
7.5
|
4.97
|
|
22
|
Browns CLE
|
9.3
|
5.92
|
|
23
|
Seahawks SEA
|
9.3
|
6.40
|
|
24
|
Saints NO
|
6.2
|
5.12
|
|
25
|
Steelers PIT
|
9
|
6.71
|
|
26
|
Redskins WAS
|
12.2
|
14.36
|
|
27
|
Ravens BAL
|
9.2
|
7.66
|
|
28
|
Colts IND
|
11.5
|
9.73
|
|
29
|
Vikings MIN
|
11.5
|
10.71
|
|
30
|
Panthers CAR
|
10.2
|
9.34
|
|
31
|
Titans TEN
|
10.2
|
9.44
|
|
32
|
Falcons ATL
|
10.5
|
14.79
|
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