Hello and Welcome to Market Fantasy!
Below are the Market Fantasy consistency rankings. When I first started doing this last year, I rushed to get them out on Tuesday night to combine them with a free agent pickup column. I’ve decided to stop rushing out the free agent column. Partly because there are a billion sites all telling you to pick up the same guys, so you don’t need me to also tell you to pick up an injured RBs backup. Hopefully, you’ve figured that out on your own. I’m not trying for content just for content’s sake. Also, if there are any free agent picks you find in here, you don’t have to waste a waiver claim on them Tuesday night when the majority of claims are processed. These guys you can pick up Wednesday as free agents and save those high claims for the in demand players everyone else is telling you about that you can probably figure out on your own. I’ll just make some quick observations about each position. Good?
Before we get started, let me give you the quick explanation of these rankings. They are based on a combination of a player’s average weekly scoring and the standard deviation of those scores. The idea is to find the players who not only average the highest points on a per week basis, but also deviate the least from that average. These are not meant to be rest of season or even weekly ranks, just an idea of how a player has performed thus far in the season. This is the only place Jay Cutler can top Aaron Rodgers, but don’t go trading Rodgers for Cutler, ok?
Like my post earlier on ceilings and floors, these ranks are meant to give you an idea of what to expect from a player. If a player has a high average score and a high standard deviation, they are not very consistent and their point average has been influenced by a huge game and the rest pedestrian games. The average score and standard deviations have been provided for each player, so use them to make your own decisions about your team and identify players to either unload or trade for.
New for this week, I’ve added the expected floors and ceilings. Remember from my Six Sigma drafting piece, following the standard distribution, a player will achieve over one standard deviation below their average 84% of the time, and will fall under one standard deviation above their average 84% of the time. These will change some on a weekly basis as the average and standard deviations move week to week, but as of now, the numbers below are what we can expect from a certain player.
One last thing to note that I am seeing in these ranks lately. If a player’s floor is below 0, it can just effectively be 0. There are a couple notable names that fall into this category like Donte Moncrief and Latavius Murray. These guys are anomalies to the system I have here and show an inherent problem with using past data to predict the future. They are both players that have really started to come on the last couple weeks, but had insignificant at best roles to begin the year. This is leading to a situation where they have a low average score from not doing much the last couple weeks, which leads to a high standard deviation now that they are starting to put up decent point totals. Just realize that there is still going to be some inconsistency with these younger players, but that they are getting safer.
As always, love to hear comments. Thanks for reading!
Inane Comments:
QB: Mark Sanchez had a rough game last week against the resurgent Seahawks defense. It can happen to anyone. I’m still using him this week against Dallas if you’re still alive or in weekly games. That should be a fun game to watch…. If you somehow made it this far with Colin Kaepernick, I wouldn’t tempt fate anymore. It’s time to move on if you can get a Tannehill or even a Johnny Manziel…. Let’s not panic on Peyton Manning, however either. If you made it this far with him, you’re sticking with him despite last week’s poor play…. Russell Wilson is a wrecking ball that shows no signs of stopping.
RB: I want to say that Jonathan Stewart is approaching safe RB2 status, but let’s not overthink his big game against New Orleans. Everyone runs them over. He’s also now dealing with a backup QB and DeAngelo Williams might return. The matchup with Tampa Bay is nice, but I wouldn’t expect another huge game. Low double digits is more likely, but again, no guarantee….. Joique Bell is really turning things on at the right time. This week’s matchup with the Vikings should prove to be a little harder, but I would put him in the low end of RB2 range. Reggie Bush might be done and Theo Riddick doesn’t seem to be a major threat…. I’m thinking we should all just avoid the Tampa Bay and Jacksonville backfields. Timeshares where no one is really all that good…. Given what RBs have been doing to the Saints lately, I would be terrified if I was playing against Matt Forte this week. I called him the #2 pick before the year started, and between the consensus top picks of him, Charles, Peterson and McCoy, I was right on the money and probably should’ve ranked him #1. Next year, it will be him and Le’Veon Bell #1 and #1A.
WR: If you were ever going to rely on Eric Decker or Percy Harvin, this is the week to do it with them facing a Titans defense that can’t stop anyone. Beware the low floor, but they both make reasonable gambles…. Roddy White has been very solid lately. I don’t see him having a huge weekly ceiling anymore, but with Julio Jones being banged up, he should achieve low double digits pretty easily against the Steelers…. I’m calling Odell Beckham a top 10 WR for next year. This reminds me a lot of the Alshon Jeffrey breakout last year. He catch basically anything resembling anywhere near him. Just a freak…. Speaking of Jeffrey, it will be interesting to see how he finishes the year without Marshall. I think you’re starting to see Jay Cutler rely on him more and more, and this could be a nice sneak peek at his future value. This looks like a passing of the torch situation similar to what we’ve seen in Atlanta the last couple years….. It was nice to see big weeks from Julian Edelman and Vincent Jackson, but I still can’t start either this week. Chalk it up to a blip on the radar…..
TE: My advice for dealing with the TE position this year? Just pick a guy and pray. That’s about it.
QB:
Rank
|
Player
|
Avg
|
StdDev
|
Floor
|
Ceiling
| ||||||
1
|
Drew Brees NO
|
25.5
|
7.84
|
17.66
|
33.34
| ||||||
2
|
Andrew Luck IND
|
32.7
|
8.34
|
24.36
|
41.04
| ||||||
3
|
Mark Sanchez PHI
|
20.2
|
4.63
|
15.57
|
24.83
| ||||||
4
|
Jay Cutler CHI
|
22.7
|
8.26
|
14.44
|
30.96
| ||||||
5
|
Ryan Tannehill MIA
|
20.3
|
7.49
|
12.81
|
27.79
| ||||||
6
|
Kyle Orton BUF
|
19.6
|
7.46
|
12.14
|
27.06
| ||||||
7
|
Aaron Rodgers GB
|
30.9
|
10.55
|
20.35
|
41.45
| ||||||
8
|
Tony Romo DAL
|
21.2
|
8.52
|
12.68
|
29.72
| ||||||
9
|
Matt Ryan ATL
|
23.3
|
9.59
|
13.71
|
32.89
| ||||||
10
|
Alex Smith KC
|
16.7
|
6.23
|
10.47
|
22.93
| ||||||
11
|
Russell Wilson SEA
|
24.4
|
10.42
|
13.98
|
34.82
| ||||||
12
|
Peyton Manning DEN
|
28.8
|
10.69
|
18.11
|
39.49
| ||||||
13
|
Blake Bortles JAC
|
14.6
|
5.95
|
8.65
|
20.55
| ||||||
14
|
Cam Newton CAR
|
20.4
|
10.27
|
10.13
|
30.67
| ||||||
15
|
Colin Kaepernick SF
|
17.3
|
7.94
|
9.36
|
25.24
| ||||||
16
|
Matthew Stafford DET
|
20.2
|
10.15
|
10.05
|
30.35
| ||||||
17
|
Tom Brady NE
|
24.6
|
11.76
|
12.84
|
36.36
| ||||||
18
|
Drew Stanton ARI
|
13.5
|
7.22
|
6.28
|
20.72
| ||||||
19
|
Teddy Bridgewater MIN
|
16
|
7.71
|
8.29
|
23.71
| ||||||
20
|
Joe Flacco BAL
|
21.1
|
10.68
|
10.42
|
31.78
| ||||||
21
|
Ben Roethlisberger PIT
|
26.8
|
15.78
|
11.02
|
42.58
| ||||||
22
|
Brian Hoyer CLE
|
13.8
|
7.46
|
6.34
|
21.26
| ||||||
23
|
Philip Rivers SD
|
22.1
|
10.94
|
11.16
|
33.04
| ||||||
24
|
Josh McCown TB
|
16
|
8.32
|
7.68
|
24.32
| ||||||
25
|
Andy Dalton CIN
|
17.8
|
9.09
|
8.71
|
26.89
| ||||||
26
|
Eli Manning NYG
|
19.7
|
10.68
|
9.02
|
30.38
| ||||||
27
|
Derek Carr OAK
|
15
|
8.78
|
6.22
|
23.78
| ||||||
28
|
Colt McCoy WAS
|
17.5
|
11.51
|
5.99
|
29.01
| ||||||
29
|
Kirk Cousins WAS
|
19.4
|
12.02
|
7.38
|
31.42
| ||||||
30
|
Ryan Fitzpatrick HOU
|
19.4
|
12.08
|
7.32
|
31.48
| ||||||
RB:
Rank
|
Player
|
Avg
|
StdDev
|
Floor
|
Ceiling
| ||||||
1
|
DeMarco Murray DAL
|
21.6
|
6.12
|
15.48
|
27.72
| ||||||
2
|
Lamar Miller MIA
|
10.6
|
4.26
|
6.34
|
14.86
| ||||||
3
|
Fred Jackson BUF
|
8.8
|
3.83
|
4.97
|
12.63
| ||||||
4
|
Steven Jackson ATL
|
9
|
4.45
|
4.55
|
13.45
| ||||||
5
|
Ryan Mathews SD
|
10.2
|
5.20
|
5.00
|
15.40
| ||||||
6
|
Justin Forsett BAL
|
15
|
7.72
|
7.28
|
22.72
| ||||||
7
|
Matt Forte CHI
|
17.2
|
8.05
|
9.15
|
25.25
| ||||||
8
|
Joique Bell DET
|
11.1
|
6.82
|
4.28
|
17.92
| ||||||
9
|
Alfred Morris WAS
|
11.4
|
6.90
|
4.50
|
18.30
| ||||||
10
|
Chris Ivory NYJ
|
9
|
6.16
|
2.84
|
15.16
| ||||||
11
|
Roy Helu WAS
|
6
|
3.39
|
2.61
|
9.39
| ||||||
12
|
LeSean McCoy PHI
|
11.5
|
7.19
|
4.31
|
18.69
| ||||||
13
|
Trent Richardson IND
|
7
|
4.22
|
2.78
|
11.22
| ||||||
14
|
Rashad Jennings NYG
|
12
|
8.00
|
4.00
|
20.00
| ||||||
15
|
Arian Foster HOU
|
22.3
|
9.66
|
12.64
|
31.96
| ||||||
16
|
Darren McFadden OAK
|
5.8
|
3.52
|
2.28
|
9.32
| ||||||
17
|
Jonathan Stewart CAR
|
9.4
|
6.50
|
2.90
|
15.90
| ||||||
18
|
Ronnie Hillman DEN
|
11.6
|
7.79
|
3.81
|
19.39
| ||||||
19
|
Isaiah Crowell CLE
|
7.9
|
5.72
|
2.18
|
13.62
| ||||||
20
|
Giovani Bernard CIN
|
11.1
|
7.60
|
3.50
|
18.70
| ||||||
21
|
Mark Ingram NO
|
14.2
|
8.56
|
5.64
|
22.76
| ||||||
22
|
Eddie Lacy GB
|
15.1
|
8.90
|
6.20
|
24.00
| ||||||
23
|
Jamaal Charles KC
|
16.5
|
9.04
|
7.46
|
25.54
| ||||||
24
|
Bishop Sankey TEN
|
5.4
|
3.17
|
2.23
|
8.57
| ||||||
25
|
Benny Cunningham STL
|
5.6
|
3.63
|
1.97
|
9.23
| ||||||
26
|
Doug Martin TB
|
5.7
|
3.94
|
1.76
|
9.64
| ||||||
27
|
Shane Vereen NE
|
7.7
|
5.85
|
1.85
|
13.55
| ||||||
28
|
Bobby Rainey TB
|
6.8
|
5.20
|
1.60
|
12.00
| ||||||
29
|
Terrance West CLE
|
7.1
|
5.31
|
1.79
|
12.41
| ||||||
30
|
Marshawn Lynch SEA
|
17.3
|
10.33
|
6.97
|
27.63
| ||||||
31
|
Reggie Bush DET
|
5.7
|
4.11
|
1.59
|
9.81
| ||||||
32
|
Chris Johnson NYJ
|
6.5
|
4.76
|
1.74
|
11.26
| ||||||
33
|
Le'Veon Bell PIT
|
20.3
|
12.00
|
8.30
|
32.30
| ||||||
34
|
Pierre Thomas NO
|
7.4
|
6.24
|
1.16
|
13.64
| ||||||
35
|
Andre Williams NYG
|
7.8
|
6.42
|
1.38
|
14.22
| ||||||
36
|
Frank Gore SF
|
8.3
|
6.88
|
1.42
|
15.18
| ||||||
37
|
Darren Sproles PHI
|
8.8
|
7.17
|
1.63
|
15.97
| ||||||
38
|
Tre Mason STL
|
11.6
|
9.79
|
1.81
|
21.39
| ||||||
39
|
Ben Tate MIN
|
7.1
|
6.28
|
0.82
|
13.38
| ||||||
40
|
Montee Ball DEN
|
5.5
|
5.12
|
0.38
|
10.62
| ||||||
41
|
Jeremy Hill CIN
|
10.5
|
8.65
|
1.85
|
19.15
| ||||||
42
|
Denard Robinson JAC
|
7.4
|
6.97
|
0.43
|
14.37
| ||||||
43
|
Alfred Blue HOU
|
5.4
|
5.25
|
0.15
|
10.65
| ||||||
44
|
C.J. Anderson DEN
|
10.8
|
11.68
|
-0.88
|
22.48
| ||||||
45
|
Jonas Gray NE
|
10.9
|
18.18
|
-7.28
|
29.08
| ||||||
46
|
Matt Asiata MIN
|
8.6
|
8.84
|
-0.24
|
17.44
| ||||||
47
|
LeGarrette Blount NE
|
5.5
|
6.57
|
-1.07
|
12.07
| ||||||
48
|
Branden Oliver SD
|
7.9
|
9.76
|
-1.86
|
17.66
| ||||||
49
|
Knile Davis KC
|
6.7
|
8.47
|
-1.77
|
15.17
| ||||||
50
|
Latavius Murray OAK
|
3.6
|
8.66
|
-5.06
|
12.26
| ||||||
WR:
Rank
|
Player
|
Avg
|
StdDev
|
Floor
|
Ceiling
| ||||||
1
|
Mike Wallace MIA
|
8.6
|
3.04
|
5.56
|
11.64
| ||||||
2
|
Roddy White ATL
|
9.9
|
4.87
|
5.03
|
14.77
| ||||||
3
|
Malcom Floyd SD
|
8.3
|
4.02
|
4.28
|
12.32
| ||||||
4
|
Alshon Jeffery CHI
|
11.9
|
5.92
|
5.98
|
17.82
| ||||||
5
|
Antonio Brown PIT
|
17.5
|
7.42
|
10.08
|
24.92
| ||||||
6
|
Marques Colston NO
|
7.1
|
3.63
|
3.47
|
10.73
| ||||||
7
|
Eric Decker NYJ
|
7.2
|
3.84
|
3.36
|
11.04
| ||||||
8
|
Kelvin Benjamin CAR
|
11
|
6.25
|
4.75
|
17.25
| ||||||
9
|
Randall Cobb GB
|
13.2
|
6.77
|
6.43
|
19.97
| ||||||
10
|
Greg Jennings MIN
|
6.4
|
3.59
|
2.81
|
9.99
| ||||||
11
|
Torrey Smith BAL
|
8.4
|
5.72
|
2.68
|
14.12
| ||||||
12
|
Andrew Hawkins CLE
|
7.6
|
4.83
|
2.77
|
12.43
| ||||||
13
|
Vincent Jackson TB
|
8.2
|
5.53
|
2.67
|
13.73
| ||||||
14
|
Emmanuel Sanders DEN
|
14.8
|
7.54
|
7.26
|
22.34
| ||||||
15
|
Josh Gordon CLE
|
8
|
5.52
|
2.48
|
13.52
| ||||||
16
|
Anquan Boldin SF
|
9
|
6.04
|
2.96
|
15.04
| ||||||
17
|
Odell Beckham NYG
|
15.2
|
7.77
|
7.43
|
22.97
| ||||||
18
|
Mohamed Sanu CIN
|
9.8
|
6.54
|
3.26
|
16.34
| ||||||
19
|
Andre Johnson HOU
|
6.1
|
3.41
|
2.69
|
9.51
| ||||||
20
|
Michael Crabtree SF
|
6.7
|
4.82
|
1.88
|
11.52
| ||||||
21
|
Julian Edelman NE
|
9.6
|
6.55
|
3.05
|
16.15
| ||||||
22
|
Dez Bryant DAL
|
13.6
|
7.60
|
6.00
|
21.20
| ||||||
23
|
James Jones OAK
|
6.5
|
4.78
|
1.72
|
11.28
| ||||||
24
|
Jordy Nelson GB
|
17.1
|
10.16
|
6.94
|
27.26
| ||||||
25
|
Rueben Randle NYG
|
5.9
|
3.80
|
2.10
|
9.70
| ||||||
26
|
Jarvis Landry MIA
|
6.3
|
4.58
|
1.72
|
10.88
| ||||||
27
|
Dwayne Bowe KC
|
5
|
2.45
|
2.55
|
7.45
| ||||||
28
|
Harry Douglas ATL
|
5.8
|
3.72
|
2.08
|
9.52
| ||||||
29
|
Terrance Williams DAL
|
6.5
|
5.25
|
1.25
|
11.75
| ||||||
30
|
Brandon Marshall CHI
|
9.5
|
7.31
|
2.19
|
16.81
| ||||||
31
|
Golden Tate DET
|
12.2
|
7.77
|
4.43
|
19.97
| ||||||
32
|
Martavis Bryant PIT
|
13.4
|
8.32
|
5.08
|
21.72
| ||||||
33
|
A.J. Green CIN
|
14.4
|
8.91
|
5.49
|
23.31
| ||||||
34
|
T.Y. Hilton IND
|
15.2
|
9.91
|
5.29
|
25.11
| ||||||
35
|
Markus Wheaton PIT
|
5.2
|
3.66
|
1.54
|
8.86
| ||||||
36
|
Brandon LaFell NE
|
9.3
|
7.38
|
1.92
|
16.68
| ||||||
37
|
Julio Jones ATL
|
15.6
|
10.73
|
4.87
|
26.33
| ||||||
38
|
Demaryius Thomas DEN
|
16.6
|
11.21
|
5.39
|
27.81
| ||||||
39
|
Kendall Wright TEN
|
8.2
|
6.79
|
1.41
|
14.99
| ||||||
40
|
Reggie Wayne IND
|
6.6
|
5.73
|
0.87
|
12.33
| ||||||
41
|
Jeremy Maclin PHI
|
14.5
|
10.45
|
4.05
|
24.95
| ||||||
42
|
Michael Floyd ARI
|
6.7
|
5.83
|
0.87
|
12.53
| ||||||
43
|
Steve Smith BAL
|
10.4
|
8.58
|
1.82
|
18.98
| ||||||
44
|
DeSean Jackson WAS
|
11.8
|
8.78
|
3.02
|
20.58
| ||||||
45
|
Nate Washington TEN
|
5
|
4.05
|
0.95
|
9.05
| ||||||
46
|
John Brown ARI
|
6.9
|
6.27
|
0.63
|
13.17
| ||||||
47
|
Mike Evans TB
|
13.9
|
10.49
|
3.41
|
24.39
| ||||||
48
|
Cecil Shorts JAC
|
5.2
|
4.73
|
0.47
|
9.93
| ||||||
49
|
Doug Baldwin SEA
|
6.4
|
5.79
|
0.61
|
12.19
| ||||||
50
|
Percy Harvin NYJ
|
7.2
|
6.34
|
0.86
|
13.54
| ||||||
51
|
DeAndre Hopkins HOU
|
12.2
|
10.14
|
2.06
|
22.34
| ||||||
52
|
Calvin Johnson DET
|
14
|
11.67
|
2.33
|
25.67
| ||||||
53
|
Steve Johnson SF
|
5
|
4.05
|
0.95
|
9.05
| ||||||
54
|
Eddie Royal SD
|
7.3
|
6.84
|
0.46
|
14.14
| ||||||
55
|
Jordan Matthews PHI
|
9.1
|
7.95
|
1.15
|
17.05
| ||||||
56
|
Louis Murphy TB
|
5.3
|
5.41
|
-0.11
|
10.71
| ||||||
57
|
Kenny Stills NO
|
8.1
|
7.42
|
0.68
|
15.52
| ||||||
58
|
Keenan Allen SD
|
8.1
|
7.44
|
0.66
|
15.54
| ||||||
59
|
Kenny Britt STL
|
5.9
|
5.69
|
0.21
|
11.59
| ||||||
60
|
Sammy Watkins BUF
|
9.6
|
9.14
|
0.46
|
18.74
| ||||||
61
|
Charles Johnson MIN
|
6.4
|
6.33
|
0.07
|
12.73
| ||||||
62
|
Larry Fitzgerald ARI
|
7.9
|
7.57
|
0.33
|
15.47
| ||||||
63
|
Robert Woods BUF
|
6.1
|
6.14
|
-0.04
|
12.24
| ||||||
64
|
Pierre Garcon WAS
|
6.2
|
6.28
|
-0.08
|
12.48
| ||||||
65
|
Allen Hurns JAC
|
7.6
|
8.60
|
-1.00
|
16.20
| ||||||
66
|
Andre Holmes OAK
|
6.2
|
7.31
|
-1.11
|
13.51
| ||||||
67
|
Jarius Wright MIN
|
5
|
7.05
|
-2.05
|
12.05
| ||||||
68
|
Donte Moncrief IND
|
5.2
|
9.29
|
-4.09
|
14.49
| ||||||
TE:
Rank
|
Player
|
Avg
|
StdDev
|
Floor
|
Ceiling
| ||||||
1
|
Dwayne Allen IND
|
7.3
|
3.65
|
3.65
|
10.95
| ||||||
2
|
Jason Witten DAL
|
5.7
|
3.43
|
2.27
|
9.13
| ||||||
3
|
Greg Olsen CAR
|
9.8
|
5.34
|
4.46
|
15.14
| ||||||
4
|
Martellus Bennett CHI
|
9.7
|
5.43
|
4.27
|
15.13
| ||||||
5
|
Travis Kelce KC
|
7.1
|
4.16
|
2.94
|
11.26
| ||||||
6
|
Tony Moeaki SEA
|
4.3
|
1.99
|
2.31
|
6.29
| ||||||
7
|
Zach Ertz PHI
|
5.1
|
4.08
|
1.02
|
9.18
| ||||||
8
|
Rob Gronkowski NE
|
13
|
7.95
|
5.05
|
20.95
| ||||||
9
|
Kyle Rudolph MIN
|
4
|
2.28
|
1.72
|
6.28
| ||||||
10
|
Jermaine Gresham CIN
|
4.3
|
3.30
|
1.00
|
7.60
| ||||||
11
|
Charles Clay MIA
|
4.6
|
3.72
|
0.88
|
8.32
| ||||||
12
|
Jared Cook STL
|
5.5
|
5.11
|
0.39
|
10.61
| ||||||
13
|
Jimmy Graham NO
|
9.6
|
7.39
|
2.21
|
16.99
| ||||||
14
|
Heath Miller PIT
|
6.1
|
5.47
|
0.63
|
11.57
| ||||||
15
|
Delanie Walker TEN
|
8.5
|
7.04
|
1.46
|
15.54
| ||||||
16
|
Julius Thomas DEN
|
11.8
|
9.13
|
2.67
|
20.93
| ||||||
17
|
Anthony Fasano KC
|
3.9
|
3.19
|
0.71
|
7.09
| ||||||
18
|
Owen Daniels BAL
|
4.9
|
4.15
|
0.75
|
9.05
| ||||||
19
|
Jordan Reed WAS
|
5.1
|
4.62
|
0.48
|
9.72
| ||||||
20
|
Scott Chandler BUF
|
4.4
|
3.91
|
0.49
|
8.31
| ||||||
21
|
Marcedes Lewis JAC
|
4.9
|
4.60
|
0.30
|
9.50
| ||||||
22
|
Larry Donnell NYG
|
6.3
|
6.11
|
0.19
|
12.41
| ||||||
23
|
Antonio Gates SD
|
8.8
|
7.71
|
1.09
|
16.51
| ||||||
24
|
Coby Fleener IND
|
8.2
|
7.42
|
0.78
|
15.62
| ||||||
25
|
Jordan Cameron CLE
|
5.4
|
5.76
|
-0.36
|
11.16
| ||||||
26
|
Mychal Rivera OAK
|
5.5
|
6.33
|
-0.83
|
11.83
| ||||||
27
|
Timothy Wright NE
|
4.6
|
5.54
|
-0.94
|
10.14
|
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