Thursday, December 4, 2014

Week 14 Consistency Rankings with Expected Floors and Ceilings

Hello and Welcome to Market Fantasy!
Below are the Market Fantasy consistency rankings. When I first started doing this last year, I rushed to get them out on Tuesday night to combine them with a free agent pickup column. I’ve decided to stop rushing out the free agent column. Partly because there are a billion sites all telling you to pick up the same guys, so you don’t need me to also tell you to pick up an injured RBs backup. Hopefully, you’ve figured that out on your own. I’m not trying for content just for content’s sake. Also, if there are any free agent picks you find in here, you don’t have to waste a waiver claim on them Tuesday night when the majority of claims are processed. These guys you can pick up Wednesday as free agents and save those high claims for the in demand players everyone else is telling you about that you can probably figure out on your own. I’ll just make some quick observations about each position. Good?
Before we get started, let me give you the quick explanation of these rankings. They are based on a combination of a player’s average weekly scoring and the standard deviation of those scores. The idea is to find the players who not only average the highest points on a per week basis, but also deviate the least from that average. These are not meant to be rest of season or even weekly ranks, just an idea of how a player has performed thus far in the season. Malcolm Floyd tops Antonio Brown in these rankings, but don’t trade Brown for Floyd, ok? 
Like my post earlier on ceilings and floors, these ranks are meant to give you an idea of what to expect from a player. If a player has a high average score and a high standard deviation, they are not very consistent and their point average has been influenced by a huge game and the rest pedestrian games. The average score and standard deviations have been provided for each player, so use them to make your own decisions about your team and identify players to either unload or trade for.
I’ve also added the expected floors and ceilings. Remember from my Six Sigma drafting piece, following the standard distribution, a player will achieve over one standard deviation below their average 84% of the time, and will fall under one standard deviation above their average 84% of the time. These will change some on a weekly basis as the average and standard deviations move week to week, but as of now, the numbers below are what we can expect from a certain player.
As always, love to hear comments. Thanks for reading!

Inane Comments:
QB: Mark Sanchez has been on a nice roll since taking over for Nick Foles. The good times might come to a halt this weekend against Seattle, however. I have to roll with Sanchez in my 14 teamer, however, so I’m just going to close my eyes and hope for the best….. Man, Andy Dalton has been terrible this year. I get that he lost AJ Green for a bit, but Mohammed Sanu filled in ably and they have had a decent ground game all year. No way I use him in the playoffs…. It will be interesting to see how Colt McCoy follows up his huge game last week. Was it the band Indy defense? Is he actually kinda good? He definitely has weapons. It will also be interesting to see where RGIII ends up next year. A situation where he can learn and work on mechanics for a year and get another shot the year after would be ideal. Chicago?.... Finally, sorry to those who missed the playoffs thanks to my guy Ryan Tannehill. I really thought he would have a huge game against the Jets. What a terrible game all around, however.

RB: Welcome back, Doug Martin. The final fantasy point total from last week was nice, but it was still an ugly day saved by a touchdown. He’s clearly going to be the back to own in TB as long as he’s healthy, however. Lovie loves him some vets, just don’t expect a whole lot…. Jonathan Stewart has 11 points in two of his last three games, and with DeAngelo Williams looking like he might miss this week, Stewart could be a nice sleeper RB2. The Saints can’t stop any RB lately (Their embarrassment at the hands of Justin Forestt two weeks ago cost me the playoffs in a league). I realize Pittsburgh and Baltimore have better offenses than Carolina, but I can still easily see a scenario where Stewart does well…. It’s tempting to avoid Lamar Miller this week against a tough Baltimore defense, but I would’ve said the same thing last week, and he gave us 12.7 points. He’s as solid a RB 2 as there is. Another 60 yards and a score wouldn’t shock me at all…. The Raiders have given up, but what Tre Mason did last week was awesome. He endured a brutal stretch admirably with the schedule and should stay in your lineups the rest of the year with things starting to ease up a little…. Lastly, let’s just ignore what Chris Johnson did Monday, ok? The Jets aren’t going to run the ball 300 times again. Although, maybe they do given how bad QB is. I’m still avoiding.

WR: I’m never going to be a Torrey Smith fan, but I’ll admit the criticism of him this year has been a little unfair. He’s only got three games under double digits since week four, and two of those were 9 points. That will play all year. I expect him to be a solid WR contributor the rest of the way…. DeAndre Hopkins went berserk with Ryan Fitzpatrick back at the helm. The Titans are bad at defense, but Hopkins played a lot better with Fitz under center. He’s a top 15 WR going forward…. Kendall Wright had a huge week after Justin Hunter went down (hope he’s ok. Lacerated spleen, yikes). Wright has largely been a disappointment, but if he’s back to being the only option, he can definitely help you in a WR3 kind of way…. I have to admit, I expected more from John Brown with Larry Fitzgerald out. Maybe Drew Stanton kneecaps this entire offense. Brown is definitely looking like a guy to target next year, however….. The same thing goes for Donte Moncrief.  Last week was his second 20 point game of the year, and the team has all but given up on Hakeem Nicks, which should lead to more and more of Moncrief. He could be really dangerous going forward, just don’t expect consistency. 

TE: If you’re desperate at TE, and looking at the numbers, I’m guessing you are, give Tony Moeaki a look. He’s had a couple useful (for TE) games since starting for Seattle, and he was supposed to be a thing in KC. Maybe a change of scenery is all he needed. Seattle generally made good use of John Carlson while he was there….. Heath Miller has had two useful games in a row now, but I still look at the rest of the season numbers, and just can’t trust him. Too many emerging weapons in Pittsburgh….. Martellus Bennett had a nice game against the Lions, but I’m not going to bank on him Thursday night. That was his first point total over 5 since week 8. He’s a great real life player, but can’t be relied on for fantasy…. Anthony Fasano again outscored Travis Kelce in KC. Just give the Kelce stuff up, it’s not happening this year. Not that Fasano is any good himself.
QB:
Rank
Player
Avg
StdDev
Floor 
Ceiling
1
Drew Brees NO 
26.5
7.39
19.11
33.89
2
Peyton Manning DEN 
31
7.94
23.06
38.94
3
Mark Sanchez PHI 
21.4
4.22
17.18
25.62
4
Andrew Luck IND 
33.2
8.54
24.66
41.74
5
Jay Cutler CHI 
21.8
7.96
13.84
29.76
6
Ryan Tannehill MIA 
20.6
7.67
12.93
28.27
7
Matt Ryan ATL 
21.7
8.18
13.52
29.88
8
Aaron Rodgers GB 
30.4
10.84
19.56
41.24
9
Alex Smith KC 
16.5
6.46
10.04
22.96
10
Kyle Orton BUF 
18.9
7.62
11.28
26.52
11
Russell Wilson SEA 
23.7
10.52
13.18
34.22
12
Tony Romo DAL 
20.7
8.75
11.95
29.45
13
Blake Bortles JAC 
14.7
6.22
8.48
20.92
14
Colt McCoy WAS 
21.6
10.40
11.20
32.00
15
Tom Brady NE 
24.5
12.23
12.27
36.73
16
Brian Hoyer CLE 
14.8
6.87
7.93
21.67
17
Teddy Bridgewater MIN 
14.9
7.32
7.58
22.22
18
Philip Rivers SD 
22.9
11.00
11.90
33.90
19
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 
26
16.13
9.87
42.13
20
Colin Kaepernick SF 
17.8
8.09
9.71
25.89
21
Cam Newton CAR 
18.5
8.48
10.02
26.98
22
Andy Dalton CIN 
16.5
8.24
8.26
24.74
23
Joe Flacco BAL 
20.5
10.89
9.61
31.39
24
Matthew Stafford DET 
19.1
9.78
9.32
28.88
25
Drew Stanton ARI 
12.6
7.35
5.25
19.95
26
Eli Manning NYG 
20.2
11.00
9.20
31.20
27
Josh McCown TB 
15.8
8.88
6.92
24.68
28
Derek Carr OAK 
13.8
8.19
5.61
21.99
29
Ryan Fitzpatrick HOU 
20.1
12.48
7.62
32.58
30
Zach Mettenberger TEN 
14.9
8.97
5.93
23.87
31
Austin Davis STL
13.8
9.90
3.90
23.70

RB:
Rank
Player
Avg
StdDev
Floor 
Ceiling
1
DeMarco Murray DAL 
20.6
5.21
15.39
25.81
2
Lamar Miller MIA 
10.8
4.40
6.40
15.20
3
Fred Jackson BUF 
8.9
3.98
4.92
12.88
4
Ryan Mathews SD 
11.2
5.05
6.15
16.25
5
Jonathan Stewart CAR 
7.5
3.31
4.19
10.81
6
Steven Jackson ATL 
8.6
4.42
4.18
13.02
7
Alfred Morris WAS 
12.2
6.56
5.64
18.76
8
LeSean McCoy PHI 
12.3
7.03
5.27
19.33
9
Joique Bell DET 
9.8
5.55
4.25
15.35
10
Matt Forte CHI 
17.3
8.37
8.93
25.67
11
Trent Richardson IND 
7.3
4.23
3.07
11.53
12
Rashad Jennings NYG 
13.2
7.65
5.55
20.85
13
Justin Forsett BAL 
15.1
8.02
7.08
23.12
14
Mark Ingram NO 
15.3
8.22
7.08
23.52
15
Darren McFadden OAK 
6.3
3.29
3.01
9.59
16
Roy Helu WAS 
6.5
3.39
3.11
9.89
17
Bishop Sankey TEN 
5.6
3.19
2.41
8.79
18
Le'Veon Bell PIT 
18.1
9.69
8.41
27.79
19
Arian Foster HOU 
22.2
10.17
12.03
32.37
20
Giovani Bernard CIN 
12
7.56
4.44
19.56
21
Andre Ellington ARI 
11.2
7.16
4.04
18.36
22
Jamaal Charles KC 
15.9
9.22
6.68
25.12
23
Doug Martin TB 
6.2
3.97
2.23
10.17
24
Eddie Lacy GB 
14.4
8.99
5.41
23.39
25
Carlos Hyde SF 
4.6
3.16
1.44
7.76
26
Ronnie Hillman DEN 
11.6
7.79
3.81
19.39
27
Benny Cunningham STL 
5.6
3.77
1.83
9.37
28
Shane Vereen NE 
8
5.93
2.07
13.93
29
Marshawn Lynch SEA 
17.4
10.73
6.67
28.13
30
Andre Williams NYG 
6.5
4.68
1.82
11.18
31
Chris Johnson NYJ 
6.5
4.95
1.55
11.45
32
Reggie Bush DET 
6
4.30
1.70
10.30
33
Jerick McKinnon MIN 
6.7
5.17
1.53
11.87
34
Bobby Rainey TB 
6.8
5.20
1.60
12.00
35
Terrance West CLE 
7.3
5.52
1.78
12.82
36
Isaiah Crowell CLE 
7.6
5.91
1.69
13.51
37
Ben Tate MIN
7.7
6.22
1.48
13.92
38
Darren Sproles PHI 
9.6
7.17
2.43
16.77
39
Pierre Thomas NO 
7.6
6.57
1.03
14.17
40
Frank Gore SF 
8.5
7.14
1.36
15.64
41
Denard Robinson JAC 
7.8
7.13
0.67
14.93
42
Jeremy Hill CIN 
10.9
8.93
1.97
19.83
43
Tre Mason STL 
12.3
10.21
2.09
22.51
44
Jonas Gray NE 
12.9
19.30
-6.40
32.20
45
Theo Riddick DET 
5
4.98
0.02
9.98
46
Matt Asiata MIN 
8.8
9.20
-0.40
18.00
47
Alfred Blue HOU 
5.3
5.46
-0.16
10.76
48
Branden Oliver SD 
8.7
9.91
-1.21
18.61
49
C.J. Anderson DEN 
9.6
11.70
-2.10
21.30
50
LeGarrette Blount NE 
5.3
6.85
-1.55
12.15
51
Knile Davis KC
7.2
8.60
-1.40
15.80

WR:
Rank
Player
Avg
StdDev
Floor 
Ceiling
1
Josh Gordon CLE 
11.2
3.75
7.45
14.95
2
Mike Wallace MIA 
9
2.83
6.17
11.83
3
Roddy White ATL 
9.9
5.11
4.79
15.01
4
A.J. Green CIN 
12.1
6.05
6.05
18.15
5
Randall Cobb GB 
13.8
6.69
7.11
20.49
6
Emmanuel Sanders DEN 
15.5
7.48
8.02
22.98
7
Marques Colston NO 
7.1
3.78
3.32
10.88
8
Malcom Floyd SD 
8
4.13
3.87
12.13
9
Alshon Jeffery CHI 
11.6
6.07
5.53
17.67
10
Antonio Brown PIT 
17.8
7.67
10.13
25.47
11
Andre Johnson HOU 
6.5
3.29
3.21
9.79
12
Greg Jennings MIN 
6.6
3.71
2.89
10.31
13
Eric Decker NYJ 
7
3.98
3.02
10.98
14
Vincent Jackson TB 
7.2
4.32
2.88
11.52
15
Andrew Hawkins CLE 
8
4.84
3.16
12.84
16
Odell Beckham NYG 
14.2
7.72
6.48
21.92
17
Rueben Randle NYG 
6.3
3.65
2.65
9.95
18
Torrey Smith BAL 
9.1
5.72
3.38
14.82
19
Mohamed Sanu CIN 
10.5
6.35
4.15
16.85
20
Kelvin Benjamin CAR 
11.2
6.46
4.74
17.66
21
Dez Bryant DAL 
14
7.75
6.25
21.75
22
Miles Austin CLE 
5.7
2.81
2.89
8.51
23
Julian Edelman NE 
8.4
5.38
3.02
13.78
24
Anquan Boldin SF 
9.3
6.22
3.08
15.52
25
James Jones OAK 
6.9
4.71
2.19
11.61
26
Golden Tate DET 
12.8
7.80
5.00
20.60
27
Julio Jones ATL 
13.7
8.70
5.00
22.40
28
Jordy Nelson GB 
16.1
9.89
6.21
25.99
29
Terrance Williams DAL 
7
5.25
1.75
12.25
30
Brandon LaFell NE 
9.9
7.16
2.74
17.06
31
Demaryius Thomas DEN 
17.9
10.71
7.19
28.61
32
Dwayne Bowe KC 
5.2
2.48
2.72
7.68
33
Michael Crabtree SF 
6.8
5.00
1.80
11.80
34
T.Y. Hilton IND 
14
9.31
4.69
23.31
35
Markus Wheaton PIT 
5.4
3.73
1.67
9.13
36
Jarvis Landry MIA 
6.4
4.77
1.63
11.17
37
Reggie Wayne IND 
7.1
5.67
1.43
12.77
38
Martavis Bryant PIT 
12.3
8.52
3.78
20.82
39
Jeremy Maclin PHI 
15.1
10.70
4.40
25.80
40
Harry Douglas ATL 
5.6
3.92
1.68
9.52
41
Brandon Marshall CHI 
9.8
7.54
2.26
17.34
42
John Brown ARI 
7.5
6.18
1.32
13.68
43
Cecil Shorts JAC 
5.7
4.68
1.02
10.38
44
DeSean Jackson WAS 
11.8
8.78
3.02
20.58
45
Justin Hunter TEN 
5.7
4.63
1.07
10.33
46
Keenan Allen SD 
8.8
7.38
1.42
16.18
47
Percy Harvin NYJ 
5.7
4.60
1.10
10.30
48
Kendall Wright TEN 
8.2
6.79
1.41
14.99
49
DeAndre Hopkins HOU 
12.8
10.32
2.48
23.12
50
Steve Johnson SF 
5.4
4.05
1.35
9.45
51
Kenny Stills NO 
8.6
7.53
1.07
16.13
52
Mike Evans TB 
13.6
10.92
2.68
24.52
53
Davante Adams GB 
5.2
4.12
1.08
9.32
54
Eddie Royal SD 
7.6
6.98
0.62
14.58
55
Jordan Matthews PHI 
9.7
8.02
1.68
17.72
56
Steve Smith BAL 
10.2
8.89
1.31
19.09
57
Michael Floyd ARI 
6.6
6.11
0.49
12.71
58
Calvin Johnson DET 
12.6
11.46
1.14
24.06
59
Larry Fitzgerald ARI 
8.4
7.80
0.60
16.20
60
Doug Baldwin SEA 
5.6
5.33
0.27
10.93
61
Louis Murphy TB 
5.7
5.52
0.18
11.22
62
Kenny Britt STL 
6
5.93
0.07
11.93
63
Sammy Watkins BUF 
9.2
9.44
-0.24
18.64
64
Robert Woods BUF 
6.3
6.35
-0.05
12.65
65
Pierre Garcon WAS 
6
6.46
-0.46
12.46
66
Cordarrelle Patterson MIN 
5.2
5.75
-0.55
10.95
67
Allen Hurns JAC 
7.4
8.93
-1.53
16.33
68
Andre Holmes OAK 
6.4
7.58
-1.18
13.98
69
Donte Moncrief IND 
5.4
9.72
-4.32
15.12

TE:

Rank
Player
Avg
StdDev
Floor 
Ceiling
1
Dwayne Allen IND 
7.9
2.27
5.63
10.17
2
Tony Moeaki SEA
5.3
1.32
3.98
6.62
3
Jason Witten DAL 
5.9
3.45
2.45
9.35
4
Travis Kelce KC 
6.7
4.06
2.64
10.76
5
Greg Olsen CAR 
9.5
5.46
4.04
14.96
6
Kyle Rudolph MIN 
4.5
1.67
2.83
6.17
7
Martellus Bennett CHI 
9.3
5.47
3.83
14.77
8
Charles Clay MIA 
4.7
3.90
0.80
8.60
9
Jimmy Graham NO 
10.2
7.69
2.51
17.89
10
Rob Gronkowski NE 
12.8
8.26
4.54
21.06
11
Anthony Fasano KC 
4.2
3.19
1.01
7.39
12
Jordan Reed WAS 
5.5
4.83
0.67
10.33
13
Jared Cook STL 
4.4
3.71
0.69
8.11
14
Zach Ertz PHI 
4.7
4.03
0.67
8.73
15
Owen Daniels BAL 
5.1
4.27
0.83
9.37
16
Delanie Walker TEN 
9
7.12
1.88
16.12
17
Julius Thomas DEN 
11.8
9.13
2.67
20.93
18
Antonio Gates SD 
9.3
7.86
1.44
17.16
19
Heath Miller PIT 
5.9
5.66
0.24
11.56
20
Coby Fleener IND 
8.5
7.68
0.82
16.18
21
Jermaine Gresham CIN 
4
3.22
0.78
7.22
22
Larry Donnell NYG 
6.6
6.25
0.35
12.85
23
Jordan Cameron CLE 
5.7
6.20
-0.50
11.90
24
Scott Chandler BUF 
4.1
3.99
0.11
8.09
25
Timothy Wright NE 
4.9
5.54
-0.64
10.44
26
Niles Paul WAS
4.2
4.25
-0.05
8.45
27
Marcedes Lewis JAC 
4.4
5.28
-0.88
9.68
28
Mychal Rivera OAK 
4.3
4.94
-0.64
9.24

No comments:

Post a Comment