The Case for Jimmy Graham

The Case for Jimmy Graham

Hi all and welcome back to Market Fantasy. I have another quick post today, this time about Jimmy Graham. As most of you know, Jimmy Graham was traded during the offseason from the high octane passing game of the New Orleans Saints to the lower octane, run first offense of the Seattle Seahawks. Conventional wisdom among fantasy analysts is that Graham is basically headed to an offensive no man’s land, doomed to fall off the face of the fantasy Earth.

Let’s take a look at the numbers from last year to see what they say. Last year, the Saints passed for 4952 yards and 33 TDs. Pretty good. The Seahawks passed for 3492 yards and 20 TDs. Less good. Jimmy Graham had 889 receiving yards and 10 TDs. Seahawks TEs combined for 888 yards and 7TDs. I think it’s safe to assume this year that you can replace “Seahawks TEs” with Jimmy Graham. Looking at it this way, the numbers are almost identical. Sure, there’s a dropoff of 3 TDs or 18 fantasy points, but last year, Jimmy Graham was the #2 ranked TE by 28 points. So if Graham had the Seattle Seahawks TE load, he still would’ve been the #2 TE in fantasy football. Luke Wilson is a fine player, but he’s not going to cut into Jimmy Graham’s targets. The Seahawks got Graham to give their star QB the number one receiving threat he’s lacked all of these years. I don’t think it’s going out on a limb at all to assume that Graham can repeat last year’s numbers with the Saints or even eclipse them a little bit. Yes, the Saints threw a lot more last year, but they also spread the ball around quite a bit. Graham was the third leading receiver on the Saints last year. He would’ve lead the Seahawks in yards and TDs last year.

The bottom line is it’s silly to expect Graham to have a precipitous fall with the Seahawks. He’s still the second best TE in the game, and worth a third round pick or so. Seattle brought him in to help the offense. Yes, he might get more attention now, but it’s not like he was ignored with the Saints. Plus, he’s an uncoverable freak of nature. The yards and TDs will be there. The Seahawks traded for a dominant red zone threat. Can anyone think of a time they really needed a big, dominant red zone threat last year? Any time? Hmmm….

That’s all for now. Thanks for reading!