The Zero QB Drafting Strategy

So in my last post, I talked some about how the zero RB strategy of drafting was a bad idea and how important it is to get a balanced offense early on. Since I think it’s so important to load up on running backs, wide receivers and maybe an elite tight end early on – say the first five rounds or so – that leaves you waiting on a quarterback for a long time. It can be uncomfortable for sure to sit there in the draft room and load up on guys who you might no longer have a starting spot for on your roster while the elite QBs fly off the board. Have no fear! A quick look at the numbers shows that you can basically throw a dart and pick up a QB who can lead your team to victory.

There’s been a lot of talk about the explosion of the passing game in the NFL, and in 2014, QB production was a reflection of that. On a per game average, there were 16 QBs who averaged over 20 points, and another 5 who averaged over 19 points per game. That’s a lot of players considering most leagues only start 12 QBs total on a weekly basis.

So how were those numbers spread out? Within the QBs that finished over 20 points per game last year, there were basically three tiers. The top two, Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers averaged 26.6 and 25.3 points per week respectively. Remember to divide the pick number by 12 to see what round a guy went in.

Player	2014 PPG Average	2014 ADP (Pick Number)
Andrew Luck	26.6	34.54
Aaron Rodgers	25.30	14.61

After that, there were four QBs who averaged 23 points per game: 

Player	2014 PPG Average	2014 ADP (Pick Number)
Drew Brees	23.47	15.88
Peyton Manning	23.43	10.34
Russell Wilson	23.08	85.36
Ben Roethlisberger	23.04	121.63

Finally, there were 10 QBs who averaged between 20 and 21 points per game (when healthy) in 2014:

Player	2014 PPG Average	2014 ADP (Pick Number)
Matt Ryan	21.70	64.74
Cam Newton	21.45	67.06
Tony Romo	21.22	89.33
Jay Cutler	21.09	84.84
Eli Manning	20.98	152.36
Ryan Tannehill	20.93	143.94
Tom Brady	20.88	57.00
Carson Palmer	20.80	141.06
Philip Rivers	20.67	100.09
Mark Sanchez	20.07	Not Drafted

First of all, let’s take a look at the tiers and scoring. The top tier of Luck and Rodgers are two guys I’m not going to get in drafts this year. They’re going to cost an early second round pick at best and that’s just not something I’m willing to spend on a QB. Sure, you’re getting 2-3 points per game over the second tier, but you’re going to end up losing bigger on your second RB and WR. By spending a first or second round pick on a QB, you’re bumping your WR/RB picks back by a round. As we saw in an earlier post, RB and WR drop off fast. The second tier is interesting to me. Manning and Brees were both first and second round picks, and they generally didn’t disappoint. Look at Wilson and Big Ben, though. Wilson was a 7^th rounder and Ben was a 10^th rounder and they were right there in terms of per game scoring. The word is out in Wilson this year, but I bet Ben can still be had at a discount. He’s got a top 3 WR and exceptional pass catching RB to work with, among other up and coming weapons. The third tier is the most interesting to me. These guys were all (except Brady) 6^th round picks or later. By waiting, you really only lost a couple points per game over the second tier, while allowing yourself to pick up a ton of lottery tickets in the RB/WR/TE group. A great strategy for QBs is to pair a couple of guys from the third tier and play the matchups. Guys like Rivers, Palmer and Romo get no respect, but produce every single year. All three can be had after the 7^th round.

So to recap, there is really no harm in waiting a long time for QB. Get a couple after the first 7 rounds are done and mix and match them. Outside of the guys mentioned in this article, I really like Bradford and Bridgewater to have nice seasons late in drafts. Remember, the difference between getting a top flight RB or WR and a two second tier guys is about 4 points per game on average, and the difference between getting a top six QB and a 7-12 ranked QB is only 2 points per game. We need to maximize our weekly points as much as possible week in and week out. A difference of 2-3 points by waiting on QB can be the difference.

Thanks for reading!