Market Fantasy #2 - The Mid Year FOW

Player	Position	YTD Value
Posey, Buster C SF	C	$      15.82
Molina, Yadier C STL	C	$      13.06
Davis, Chris RF BAL	1B	$      31.06
Encarnacion, Edwin 1B TOR	1B	$      19.96
Goldschmidt, Paul 1B ARI	1B	$      15.32
Cano, Robinson 2B NYY	2B	$      21.24
Kipnis, Jason 2B CLE	2B	$      18.44
Pedroia, Dustin 2B BOS	2B	$      15.99
Segura, Jean SS MIL	SS	$      16.25
Tulowitzki, Troy SS COL	SS	$      14.25
Desmond, Ian SS WAS	SS	$      13.66
Cabrera, Miguel 3B DET	3B	$      37.76
Donaldson, Josh 3B OAK	3B	$      16.21
Wright, David 3B NYM	3B	$      15.65
Gonzalez, Carlos LF COL	OF	$      30.19
Trout, Mike CF LAA	OF	$      27.00
Brown, Domonic RF PHI	OF	$      22.76
Bautista, Jose RF TOR	OF	$      21.53
Jones, Adam CF BAL	OF	$      20.54
Cruz, Nelson RF TEX	OF	$      17.90
Bruce, Jay RF CIN	OF	$      17.90
Scherzer, Max SP DET	SP	$      42.28
Darvish, Yu SP TEX	SP	$      36.69
Harvey, Matt SP NYM	SP	$      36.61
Kershaw, Clayton SP LAD	SP	$      32.81
Wainwright, Adam SP STL	SP	$      32.79
Lee, Cliff SP PHI	SP	$      31.44
Grilli, Jason RP PIT	RP	$      34.29
Nathan, Joe RP TEX	RP	$      29.54
Johnson, Jim RP BAL	RP	$      26.74
Index Value		$    725.70

 

 

Hey everyone, welcome to the second edition of Market Fantasy. Last week, I introduced the FOW (fantasy DOW) and this week, I‘d like to take a look at what the FOW would look like if we took the best players here at the All Star break. If you’ll recall, the FOW was based on beginning of season projections for players. Tonight, we’ll take a look at how that has changed. Moving forward, I will be updating weekly movements in the original FOW, but I thought it would be interesting to see whose values have changed. New Glarus Winter Warmer Scotch Ale in hand - let’s do this.

 

Catcher

Not a whole lot of surprise here. We all expected Posey up on top, but Yadier is a bit of a surprise, knocking Carlos Santana off the FOW. While Yadier has proven to be one of the top offensive catchers in the game, I figured Santana’s HR numbers would be enough to make up for any batting average pitfalls. It’s hard to imaging Yadier hitting .350 the rest of the way, but hitting over .300 shouldn’t be too hard. As long as he does that, the RBI chances will continue in this Cards lineup.

1^st Base

All three names on this list are different, and I don’t see any of the originals getting their position back. Pujols is probably 38, Prince is hitting like he’s back on the vegetarian diet, and Votto just doesn’t have the power to be in the conversation with these three sluggers. All three of the guys on the list have over 20 HR and 60 RBI. First base is where your power is going to come from and while Votto is still an OPS hog, a HR total in the mid teens with 40 RBI just isn’t elite at this position. Also, Chris Davis is legit because he says he's not on steroids, so you know, he’s clean.

2^nd Base

Not a lot of surprises here. Everyone knows Cano and Pedroia are awesome. Kipnis is finally breaking out and showing the 20-30 potential that should make him a star for a while to come. Kinsler drops out because he’s hurt. Again. And will probably get hurt again.

Shortstop

All hail Jean Segura! The top shortstop went largely undrafted or was taken as a late round flier. A .320 batting average, 25 steals and double digit HR propelled him to the top spot. Tulo comes in second even though he’s missed some time. Starlin Castro falls off because he’s not very good at baseball. Hopefully someone is still delusional enough to give the Cubs some elite prospects for him.

3^rd Base

The big story here is Josh Donaldson in the top three at the third base position. He looks legit as well. Changed approach at the plate, taking more walks and hitting in the middle of a great A’s lineup. Wright barely beats out Longoria for the third spot. It’s all about the steals with Wright, making him a more complete player. And finally, a tip of the cap to Miguel Cabrera. He’s on pace to finish with better number than last year when he was the best offensive player in baseball. He’s also hitting over .400 with RISP, which is ridiculous. He’s a boss. Sorry rest of planet Earth, but Miguel Cabrera is better at baseball than you.

Outfield

The big surprises here are Nelson Cruz and Dominic Brown. Nelson Cruz has always had health issues, but also seemed like a player on the decline. Well, he’s healthy this year and crushing in Texas. He won’t help your batting average anymore, but he won’t hurt it either. Dominic Brown was a buzzy post-hype sleeper coming into the year, but I don’t think anyone expected the power surge he went on, which included him hitting about 48 home runs against me in week 8 this year. Ryan Braun drops out because he doesn’t have any more drugs and Matt Kemp falls out because he needs a new shoulder.

Pitchers

With starting pitchers, there’s not a whole lot of difference between the top ten. Not many of the starters in this list are all that surprising to me except for Scherzer, who has leapt to the truly elite level this year. We all know about the 13 wins, but this was a guy who always struggled with command which made him maddening to own. He has somehow managed to keep his WHIP down while keeping the strikeouts up. A true breakout. Some people might not have expected to see Harvey here, but with that kind of strikeout potential, it really shouldn’t be a surprise to see what he’s done this year. I’m not going to spend a whole lot of time on the relief pitchers, because the saves chase is always a circus. More than any position, it’s a complete crap shoot. If you drafted any of these guys late, take a victory lap. If you went with the Kimbrels, Chapmans and other guys early, well, they’re not bad, but all three of the top closers were drafter after the 15^th round, so you lose.

 

Thanks for reading everyone! Next week, I'll go start tracking the original FOW - which was the original intent of this blog. I'll also start to introduce some finance in here and see how well the two mix. Enjoy!