Thursday, July 18, 2013

Market Fantasy #3

Player
Position
Value
% Change
Santana, Carlos C CLE
C
 $   18.99
-9%
Posey, Buster C SF
C
 $   23.10
13%
Pujols, Albert 1B LAA
1B
 $   13.17
-39%
Votto, Joey 1B CIN
1B
 $   14.88
-22%
Fielder, Prince 1B DET
1B
 $   14.58
-17%
Cano, Robinson 2B NYY
2B
 $   29.39
12%
Pedroia, Dustin 2B BOS
2B
 $   23.92
1%
Kinsler, Ian 2B TEX
2B
 $   13.35
-43%
Cabrera, Miguel 3B DET
SS
 $   43.04
61%
Longoria, Evan 3B TB
SS
 $   19.64
3%
Wright, David 3B NYM
SS
 $   19.11
19%
Tulowitzki, Troy SS COL
3B
 $   25.70
-30%
Reyes, Jose SS TOR
3B
 $   10.53
-48%
Castro, Starlin SS CHC
3B
 $      9.48
-47%
Braun, Ryan LF MIL
OF
 $   18.41
-48%
Trout, Mike CF LAA
OF
 $   35.93
21%
Kemp, Matt CF LAD
OF
 $   15.35
-48%
Stanton, Giancarlo RF MIA
OF
 $   14.32
-48%
Hamilton, Josh CF LAA
OF
 $   17.52
-34%
McCutchen, Andrew CF PIT
OF
 $   25.10
6%
Bautista, Jose LF TOR
OF
 $   26.50
14%
Kershaw, Clayton SP LAD
SP
 $   48.00
7%
Verlander, Justin SP DET
SP
 $   36.69
-8%
Strasburg, Stephen SP WAS
SP
 $   31.23
-21%
Price, David SP TB
SP
 $   19.18
-49%
Sabathia, CC SP NYY
SP
 $   33.20
-10%
Hamels, Cole SP PHI
SP
 $   27.05
-22%
Kimbrel, Craig RP ATL
RP
 $   40.69
2%
Papelbon, Jonathan RP PHI
RP
 $   27.82
-7%
Rodney, Fernando RP TB
RP
 $   29.46
16%
Index Value

 $ 725.32
-13%



At the All-Star break, the FOW closed down 13% to $725.32. Injuries and poor play have especially marred the shortstop and outfield sectors, which are down almost across the board. Looking at these two sectors, shortstop has the best chance of posting a rebound for the remaining nine weeks of the season. Jose Reyes and Troy Tulowitzki are both back from injuries that cost them multiple weeks and should resume their usual high level of performance. The outfield sector provides less confidence however. Trout, McCutchen and Bautista should continue to provide investors with profits, and Stanton is certainly due to increase his value now that he’s back from injury. The outlook is less rosy, however for Kemp, Braun and Hamilton. Nagging injuries have sapped the power from all three of these players, and unfortunately, there doesn’t seem to be much hope of a turnaround. On top of all this, Braun is currently on the bereavement list (presumably to mourn his career) and is facing severe disciplinary action from Major League Baseball stemming from his involvement in the Biogenesis PED scandal. It’s hard to see a significant turnaround here.

On the bright side, the second and third base along with the relief pitching sectors have helped keep the FOW from completely bottoming out. At third base, Miguel Cabrera has turned a whopping 61% profit for his investors. For a player who was seen as a top three pick already, this is phenomenal, boss-level performance. As crazy as it sounds, considering the lag at third base in general, we still have a solid buy rating on Cabrera. Same can be said for Wright and Longoria as well. At second base, investors we see Cano as a buy, as he continues to put up strong numbers in a contract year. Pedroia, meanwhile is a hold while he won’t provide through the roof return, he won’t hurt your portfolio either. Lastly, in the relief sector, Rodney and Kimbrel are providing investors with a return despite each hitting some rough patches earlier in the year.

What about certain assets who are grossly outperforming other assets in the FOW? Why aren’t they included? Can a stock be kicked out of an index? Stay tuned!
Thanks for reading, everyone!

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