Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Week 10 Consistency Ratings and Expected Floors and Ceilings

Hello and Welcome to Market Fantasy!
Below are the Market Fantasy consistency rankings. When I first started doing this last year, I rushed to get them out on Tuesday night to combine them with a free agent pickup column. I’ve decided to stop rushing out the free agent column. Partly because there are a billion sites all telling you to pick up the same guys, so you don’t need me to also tell you to pick up an injured RBs backup. Hopefully, you’ve figured that out on your own. I’m not trying for content just for content’s sake. Also, if there are any free agent picks you find in here, you don’t have to waste a waiver claim on them Tuesday night when the majority of claims are processed. These guys you can pick up Wednesday as free agents and save those high claims for the in demand players everyone else is telling you about that you can probably figure out on your own. I’ll just make some quick observations about each position. Good?
Before we get started, let me give you the quick explanation of these rankings. They are based on a combination of a player’s average weekly scoring and the standard deviation of those scores. The idea is to find the players who not only average the highest points on a per week basis, but also deviate the least from that average. These are not meant to be rest of season or even weekly ranks, just an idea of how a player has performed thus far in the season. Carson Palmer tops Peyton Manning in these rankings, but don’t trade Manning for Palmer, ok? 
Like my post earlier on ceilings and floors, these ranks are meant to give you an idea of what to expect from a player. If a player has a high average score and a high standard deviation, they are not very consistent and their point average has been influenced by a huge game and the rest pedestrian games. The average score and standard deviations have been provided for each player, so use them to make your own decisions about your team and identify players to either unload or trade for.
I’ve also added the expected floors and ceilings. Remember from my Six Sigma drafting piece, following the standard distribution, a player will achieve over one standard deviation below their average 84% of the time, and will fall under one standard deviation above their average 84% of the time. These will change some on a weekly basis as the average and standard deviations move week to week, but as of now, the numbers below are what we can expect from a certain player.
As always, love to hear comments. Thanks for reading!

Inane Comments:
QB: The big news this week at the QB position is the multi week injury to Nick Foles. Honestly, this probably saved a lot of Foles owners from themselves. He’s currently 19th at the position in average weekly scoring. His setup was always tantalizing, but he just wasn’t that good. Now you’re forced to move on. I always thought Mark Sanchez got a raw deal with the Jets and am more than curious to see what he can do in Philly.... The other QB news this week is that the Ryan Fitzpatrick era is done in Houston. The Texans will now turn to Ryan Mallett. Fitzpatrick was 26th in average QB scoring despite playing with the offensive weapons he now has. As long as Mallett is somewhat competent, he should be an upgrade for his receivers….. Lots of QBs on bye this week and Kyle Orton is 10th in average per week scoring. Just saying….. I wouldn’t worry too much about Philip Rivers, and would absolutely shoot his owner a buy low offer with him on the bye this week. One bad game. He’ll be fine. 

RB: Three RBs enter the week with expected floors in the double digits, while only two WRs have a double digit floor. I talked about the silliness of zero RB drafting a couple weeks ago, but I think this proves it even more. All three of these guys (Forte, Foster, Murray) were first rounders, or early second rounders at worst. The next two RBs for expected floors above 9 are Le’Veon Bell and Mark Ingram. I’ll give the zero RB guys Ingram, because if you saw that coming, well, good job. Still, like I said before, only one guy wins the waiver/FAAB war for those guys it’s a risky way to live….. It’s nice to see what Ahmad Bradshaw can do while healthy for a full season. And he’s putting up RB1 value in a timeshare…… Good to see Alfred Morris finally attaining RB1 value the last couple weeks. He should be a good play from here on out with better QB play….. Some will tout Matt Asiata as an every week flex play after his second three TD game this year. I’m more of the opinion that I will just let that happen on my bench. He has two games over 20 points, but 5 games of 7 points or less including three with less than 4 points. No reason to gamble on such poor odds this late in the season…. I hate to do it, but it might be time to cut Isiah Crowell loose if you need the space for an Alfred Blue or other useful piece. He has four games under three points including last week’s doughnut, and is clearly in third place in this backfield. The talent is tantalizing, but it really doesn’t matter what we think….. Unfortunately, the same looks true for Juwan Thompson in Denver. Montee Ball is back at practice, so you have to think Thompson gets bumped back down to number three. You might have one more shot to use him this week, I guess, against Oakland in the hopes that it gets out of hand quickly and Denver rests their starters.

WR: It’s time to admit I was wrong about Jeremy Maclin. He’s awesome and a top 10 guy easily. I don’t think he loses a step with Mark Sanchez. Especially with the Eagles’ run game finally showing some life…. As a Bears fan, I’m predicting around 1,000 points for Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson this week. If you’re desperate, Davante Adams should be a good play as well. The Bears can’t cover anyone…. I mentioned before that there were two WRs with expected floors in the double digits. Oddly enough, they both play for the Steelers. Antonio Brown is great, but I’m not ready to put Martavis Bryant in that category yet. He’s good, but as you can see, it’s very hard to sustain that type of production….. I know the Giants are thin at WR, but man, Rueben Randle is bad. He dropped everything Monday. WR3 at best…. I know it was Allen Hurns’ turn to go off last week, but if I had to start a Jacksonville WR, it’s still Allen Robinson. Robinson had the couple huge days that Hurns has, but he also hasn’t had the low single digit killers that Hurns has had either…. Same idea in Oakland with James Jones and Andre Holmes, although these two are closer. Holmes has the homerun upside and Jones offers more stability. Both guys can kill you though. There should be a lot of garbage time in Oakland, though….. Amazingly, it looks like Anquan Boldin is the WR to own in San Francisco. I can’t really recommend either guy though.

TE: Is it time to drop Vernon Davis? Guy only has one game over 4 points this year. It’s hard to get rid of a name like that, but the whole Niners passing attack is terrible.... I get why you don’t want to drop any TE. Look at the free agent landscape and nothing all that inspiring pops up. Jared Cook? Been there, been burned. Mychal Rivera? Picked up a couple Raiders after a couple good games only to get burned. Heath Miller? One good game, the rest terrible. I guess I’d jump on Kyle Rudolph early. He’s as good a bet as any to help out once he returns next week.

QB:
Player
Avg
Std Dev
Std Rank
Floor
Ceiling
Carson Palmer ARI 
24.9
3.28
2
21.62
28.18
Peyton Manning DEN 
31.9
6.01
8
25.89
37.91
Drew Brees NO 
24.6
4.59
4
20.01
29.19
Andrew Luck IND 
34.3
6.66
16
27.64
40.96
Kyle Orton BUF
23.7
6.12
9
17.58
29.82
Jay Cutler CHI 
23.8
6.47
14
17.33
30.27
Mike Glennon TB 
19.3
5.32
5
13.98
24.62
Aaron Rodgers GB 
27.5
9.94
25
17.56
37.44
Ryan Tannehill MIA 
21.6
6.56
15
15.04
28.16
Ryan Fitzpatrick HOU 
16.3
5.36
6
10.94
21.66
Matt Ryan ATL
22.3
9.49
21
12.81
31.79
Colt McCoy WAS 
14.5
3.10
1
11.40
17.60
Tony Romo DAL 
20.4
6.72
17
13.68
27.12
Colin Kaepernick SF 
20.6
7.69
18
12.91
28.29
Charlie Whitehurst TEN
15.4
3.86
3
11.54
19.26
Andy Dalton CIN 
18.1
6.26
11
11.84
24.36
Jake Locker TEN
15.8
5.96
7
9.84
21.76
Alex Smith KC 
17.5
6.27
12
11.23
23.77
Tom Brady NE 
25.2
13.90
32
11.30
39.10
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 
27.2
17.60
33
9.60
44.80
Brian Hoyer CLE 
16.8
6.35
13
10.45
23.15
Russell Wilson SEA 
24.3
12.70
31
11.60
37.00
Philip Rivers SD 
23.2
11.24
28
11.96
34.44
Eli Manning NYG 
22.1
11.09
27
11.01
33.19
Blake Bortles JAC 
15.5
6.19
10
9.31
21.69
Nick Foles PHI 
19.9
9.64
22
10.26
29.54
Matthew Stafford DET
20.4
9.84
24
10.56
30.24
Joe Flacco BAL 
21.1
11.99
29
9.11
33.09
Cam Newton CAR 
18.1
9.79
23
8.31
27.89
Derek Carr OAK 
16.2
8.37
20
7.83
24.57
Kirk Cousins WAS 
19.4
12.02
30
7.38
31.42
Teddy Bridgewater MIN 
13.6
7.76
19
5.84
21.36
Austin Davis STL 
16.2
10.19
26
6.01
26.39


Player
Avg
Std Dev
Std Rank
Floor
Ceiling
Justin Forsett BAL 
11.6
3.33
7
8.27
14.93
Lamar Miller MIA 
12.4
3.44
8
8.96
15.84
DeMarco Murray DAL 
21.8
5.48
25
16.32
27.28
Ahmad Bradshaw IND 
12.8
4.77
19
8.03
17.57
Le'Veon Bell PIT 
15.4
5.83
28
9.57
21.23
Darren McFadden OAK 
7.7
3.10
5
4.60
10.80
Jonathan Stewart CAR 
6.8
2.91
4
3.89
9.71
Trent Richardson IND 
8.4
3.77
11
4.63
12.17
Fred Jackson BUF 
9.1
4.46
18
4.64
13.56
Andre Ellington ARI 
13.8
7.21
36
6.59
21.01
Joique Bell DET 
8.7
4.36
16
4.34
13.06
Matt Forte CHI
18.8
8.38
42
10.42
27.18
Storm Johnson JAC 
6.1
2.44
2
3.66
8.54
Giovani Bernard CIN 
13.7
7.76
39
5.94
21.46
Roy Helu WAS 
6.1
2.52
3
3.58
8.62
Tre Mason STL 
7.4
4.27
14
3.13
11.67
Ronnie Hillman DEN 
13.2
7.32
37
5.88
20.52
Steven Jackson ATL 
7.3
4.06
13
3.24
11.36
Alfred Morris WAS 
11.5
6.66
33
4.84
18.16
LeSean McCoy PHI 
10.2
5.92
29
4.28
16.12
Marshawn Lynch SEA 
16
8.64
45
7.36
24.64
DeAngelo Williams CAR 
5.2
1.56
1
3.64
6.76
Mark Ingram NO 
18.4
8.99
47
9.41
27.39
Arian Foster HOU 
22.9
10.58
51
12.32
33.48
Benny Cunningham STL 
6.5
3.80
12
2.70
10.30
Bobby Rainey TB 
8.5
5.42
24
3.08
13.92
Chris Ivory NYJ 
10.7
6.73
35
3.97
17.43
Rashad Jennings NYG 
13.2
8.45
43
4.75
21.65
Ben Tate CLE 
9.2
6.38
30
2.82
15.58
Bishop Sankey TEN 
5.3
3.28
6
2.02
8.58
Terrance West CLE 
7.9
5.32
23
2.58
13.22
Zac Stacy STL 
5.9
3.45
9
2.45
9.35
Reggie Bush DET 
6.6
4.38
17
2.22
10.98
Antone Smith ATL 
8
5.52
26
2.48
13.52
Jamaal Charles KC 
13.5
9.13
48
4.37
22.63
Doug Martin TB 
5.6
3.59
10
2.01
9.19
Andre Williams NYG 
6.6
4.89
20
1.71
11.49
Shane Vereen NE 
8.8
6.57
32
2.23
15.37
Eddie Lacy GB 
11.5
8.60
44
2.90
20.10
Darren Sproles PHI 
10.6
8.19
41
2.41
18.79
Isaiah Crowell CLE 
6.1
5.30
22
0.80
11.40
Jerick McKinnon MIN 
6.8
5.70
27
1.10
12.50
Bernard Pierce BAL 
5.1
4.29
15
0.81
9.39
Frank Gore SF 
9.1
7.92
40
1.18
17.02
Chris Johnson NYJ 
6
5.10
21
0.90
11.10
Knile Davis KC 
10
8.89
46
1.11
18.89
Jeremy Hill CIN 
10.5
9.63
49
0.87
20.13
Branden Oliver SD 
11.1
10.90
52
0.20
22.00
Matt Asiata MIN 
10
9.74
50
0.26
19.74
Denard Robinson JAC 
7.3
7.54
38
-0.24
14.84
Lorenzo Taliaferro BAL 
6.2
6.68
34
-0.48
12.88
Theo Riddick DET
5
6.52
31
-1.52
11.52


Player
Avg
Std Dev
Std Rank
Floor
Ceiling
Martavis Bryant PIT 
15.7
4.27
15
11.43
19.97
Mike Wallace MIA 
9.6
2.68
3
6.92
12.28
A.J. Green CIN 
11.7
4.74
23
6.96
16.44
Eric Decker NYJ 
8.3
3.73
11
4.57
12.03
Mohamed Sanu CIN 
13.4
5.28
33
8.12
18.68
Dez Bryant DAL 
11.9
5.16
29
6.74
17.06
DeAndre Hopkins HOU 
11
5.26
31
5.74
16.26
Malcom Floyd SD 
8.2
4.32
16
3.88
12.52
Alshon Jeffery CHI 
10.4
5.27
32
5.13
15.67
Antonio Brown PIT 
19
7.03
50
11.97
26.03
Anquan Boldin SF 
8.2
4.54
19
3.66
12.74
Randall Cobb GB 
15.5
7.24
52
8.26
22.74
Allen Robinson JAC 
6.8
3.56
8
3.24
10.36
Terrance Williams DAL 
8.7
5.21
30
3.49
13.91
Greg Jennings MIN 
6.4
3.36
6
3.04
9.76
Andre Johnson HOU 
6.5
3.55
7
2.95
10.05
Marques Colston NO 
6.8
3.66
9
3.14
10.46
Steve Johnson SF 
7.1
4.06
14
3.04
11.16
Andrew Hawkins CLE 
7.5
4.55
20
2.95
12.05
Odell Beckham NYG 
12.6
6.74
48
5.86
19.34
Vincent Jackson TB 
7.4
4.50
18
2.90
11.90
James Jones OAK 
7.9
4.93
26
2.97
12.83
Kelvin Benjamin CAR 
10
5.96
41
4.04
15.96
Rueben Randle NYG 
6.1
3.23
5
2.87
9.33
Roddy White ATL
9
5.74
38
3.26
14.74
Emmanuel Sanders DEN 
15.2
8.44
58
6.76
23.64
Harry Douglas ATL
5.6
1.59
1
4.01
7.19
Dwayne Bowe KC 
5.7
1.89
2
3.81
7.59
Miles Austin CLE 
5.7
3.13
4
2.57
8.83
Percy Harvin NYJ 
6.9
4.57
21
2.33
11.47
Golden Tate DET 
14.3
8.87
60
5.43
23.17
Julian Edelman NE 
8.8
6.08
43
2.72
14.88
Jeremy Maclin PHI 
17.8
11.74
67
6.06
29.54
Julio Jones ATL
12.6
8.46
59
4.14
21.06
T.Y. Hilton IND 
14.5
9.57
63
4.93
24.07
Jordy Nelson GB 
15.3
9.91
65
5.39
25.21
Demaryius Thomas DEN 
18.5
12.38
69
6.12
30.88
Markus Wheaton PIT 
6
3.81
12
2.19
9.81
Louis Murphy TB 
7
4.91
25
2.09
11.91
DeSean Jackson WAS 
13.3
9.24
62
4.06
22.54
Mike Evans TB 
10.4
7.59
53
2.81
17.99
Reggie Wayne IND 
8.2
5.99
42
2.21
14.19
Brandon Marshall CHI 
8.7
6.74
47
1.96
15.44
Cecil Shorts JAC 
5.4
3.68
10
1.72
9.08
Michael Crabtree SF 
6.8
5.07
28
1.73
11.87
Steve Smith BAL 
11.7
9.03
61
2.67
20.73
Taylor Gabriel CLE 
5.9
4.38
17
1.52
10.28
Torrey Smith BAL 
7.5
5.64
37
1.86
13.14
Brandon LaFell NE 
9.7
8.08
55
1.62
17.78
Brandin Cooks NO 
8.2
6.44
46
1.76
14.64
Keenan Allen SD 
6.3
4.85
24
1.45
11.15
Sammy Watkins BUF 
12.5
10.05
66
2.45
22.55
Michael Floyd ARI 
7.1
5.55
36
1.55
12.65
Kenny Britt STL 
5.2
3.85
13
1.35
9.05
Justin Hunter TEN 
5.9
4.74
22
1.16
10.64
Kendall Wright TEN 
7.7
6.30
45
1.40
14.00
Jordan Matthews PHI 
6.2
5.00
27
1.20
11.20
Kenny Stills NO 
6.6
5.51
35
1.09
12.11
Larry Fitzgerald ARI 
8.3
8.28
56
0.02
16.58
Andre Holmes OAK 
8.4
8.34
57
0.06
16.74
Calvin Johnson DET 
10.4
11.97
68
-1.57
22.37
Allen Hurns JAC 
9.2
9.65
64
-0.45
18.85
Pierre Garcon WAS 
7.4
6.84
49
0.56
14.24
Eddie Royal SD
7.8
7.84
54
-0.04
15.64
John Brown ARI 
7.5
7.16
51
0.34
14.66
Doug Baldwin SEA 
6.2
5.86
39
0.34
12.06
Cordarrelle Patterson MIN 
6.4
6.14
44
0.26
12.54
Robert Woods BUF 
5.2
5.46
34
-0.26
10.66
Devin Hester ATL
5.8
5.93
40
-0.13
11.73



Player
Avg
Std Dev
Std Rank
Floor
Ceiling
Dwayne Allen IND 
8.8
2.27
1
6.53
11.07
Travis Kelce KC 
8.2
3.90
6
4.30
12.10
Jason Witten DAL 
5.8
3.26
4
2.54
9.06
Martellus Bennett CHI 
10.8
5.29
14
5.51
16.09
Owen Daniels BAL 
6.3
4.40
10
1.90
10.70
Coby Fleener IND 
5.9
4.33
9
1.57
10.23
Greg Olsen CAR 
9.7
5.81
16
3.89
15.51
Lance Kendricks STL 
4.7
3.17
3
1.53
7.87
Delanie Walker TEN 
9.3
6.39
18
2.91
15.69
Antonio Gates SD 
10.9
8.27
22
2.63
19.17
Julius Thomas DEN 
12.4
9.05
23
3.35
21.45
Rob Gronkowski NE 
13.7
9.29
24
4.41
22.99
Jared Cook STL
4.3
2.36
2
1.94
6.66
Jimmy Graham NO 
10.3
7.10
21
3.20
17.40
Scott Chandler BUF
4.8
3.95
7
0.85
8.75
Charles Clay MIA 
4.9
4.32
8
0.58
9.22
Chase Ford MIN 
4.5
3.85
5
0.65
8.35
Niles Paul WAS 
5.2
4.46
11
0.74
9.66
Zach Ertz PHI 
5.7
4.47
12
1.23
10.17
Larry Donnell NYG 
7.5
6.99
20
0.51
14.49
Clay Harbor JAC 
5.1
4.81
13
0.29
9.91
Heath Miller PIT 
5.9
6.40
19
-0.50
12.30
Jordan Cameron CLE 
5.7
6.20
17
-0.50
11.90
Vernon Davis SF 
4.7
5.33
15
-0.63
10.03

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