Sunday, November 9, 2014

Week 10 Efficiency Ratings

Hello and welcome to Market Fantasy!
Below are my efficiency rankings. The idea is similar to my consistency rankings in how they are calculated, but looking at a different set of metrics. The consistency rankings are really more of a predictive tool than a rank, in that by showing a players average performance and standard deviation within those performances, we can get an idea of what to expect from a player in a given week. 
The efficiency rankings below are based on two metrics: total number of touches and points per touch. Total number of touches is the number of times a player touches the football, either via reception or carry. Points per touch is the number of fantasy points a player scores each time they touch the ball (YTD fantasy points divided by total touches). 
The idea in calculating where a player ranks is similar to how I get to my consistency ranks. In calculating the consistency ranks, more weight is given to players with higher average scores, since they are high performers, but also lowest standard deviation. A lower standard deviation gives us a smaller range of outcomes when predicting what their score will be. In calculating the below efficiency ranks, the most weight is given to the highest touches, along with the highest points per touch. The idea is to find the players who will touch the ball the most and score the most points each time they do so. A player like Antone Smith has a very high points per touch among running backs, but also a smaller workload, so a big game is blown out of proportion some. 
One last note on the ranks: running backs will have a lower points per touch than wide receivers and tight ends due to both the higher number of touches and the nature of their touches. Whereas a receiver might average 15 yards (1.5 points) per reception, a good running back only averages 4.5 (.45 points) yards per carry (and a little more per reception).

RB:
Player
MF Pts
Touches
Pts/Touch
Arian Foster HOU 
161.1
187
0.861
Marshawn Lynch SEA 
125.2
154
0.813
Matt Forte CHI
139.2
188
0.740
Ahmad Bradshaw IND 
115.4
117
0.986
DeMarco Murray DAL 
170.3
255
0.668
Le'Veon Bell PIT 
132.4
198
0.669
Lamar Miller MIA 
96.2
127
0.757
Giovani Bernard CIN 
92.5
131
0.706
Justin Forsett BAL 
99.1
144
0.688
Jamaal Charles KC 
94.4
115
0.821
Chris Ivory NYJ 
89.9
121
0.743
Alfred Morris WAS 
103.3
160
0.646
Eddie Lacy GB
85.7
126
0.680
Matt Asiata MIN 
87.6
106
0.826
Andre Ellington ARI 
107.2
181
0.592
Mark Ingram NO 
83.9
96
0.874
Jeremy Hill CIN 
83
101
0.822
Shane Vereen NE 
79.6
100
0.796
Ronnie Hillman DEN 
73.3
103
0.712
Branden Oliver SD 
72
120
0.600
Isaiah Crowell CLE 
59.3
67
0.885
Antone Smith ATL 
64
31
2.065
Darren Sproles PHI 
63.2
55
1.149
Knile Davis KC 
68.2
111
0.614
Roy Helu WAS 
53.8
59
0.912
Pierre Thomas NO 
51.7
56
0.923
Lorenzo Taliaferro BAL 
56.1
65
0.863
Trent Richardson IND 
67.3
129
0.522
Terrance West CLE 
67.5
114
0.592
Frank Gore SF 
66.9
121
0.553
LeSean McCoy PHI 
75.6
181
0.418
Bobby Rainey TB 
64.8
104
0.623
Fred Jackson BUF 
62
88
0.705
Ben Tate CLE 
64.2
113
0.568
Darren McFadden OAK 
61.9
123
0.503
Benny Cunningham STL 
52
64
0.813
Joique Bell DET 
61
113
0.540
Rashad Jennings NYG 
60.5
102
0.593
Denard Robinson JAC 
60
99
0.606
Steven Jackson ATL 
58.5
105
0.557
Khiry Robinson NO 
43.6
67
0.651
Jerick McKinnon MIN 
55.2
110
0.502
Chris Johnson NYJ 
54.1
94
0.576
Andre Williams NYG 
53.1
106
0.501
LeGarrette Blount PIT 
40.2
66
0.609
C.J. Spiller BUF 
43.6
83
0.525
Jonathan Stewart CAR 
40.8
77
0.530
Stevan Ridley NE 
48
98
0.490
Bishop Sankey TEN
42.6
83
0.513
Zac Stacy STL 
41.2
81
0.509


WR:
Player
MF Pts
Touches
Pts/Touch
Jeremy Maclin PHI 
127
45
2.822
Demaryius Thomas DEN 
125.4
54
2.322
Randall Cobb GB
112.7
44
2.561
Jordy Nelson GB
109.7
50
2.194
Antonio Brown PIT 
148.9
75
1.985
T.Y. Hilton IND 
112.2
57
1.968
DeSean Jackson WAS 
102
38
2.684
Dez Bryant DAL 
99.5
50
1.990
Steve Smith BAL 
93.1
46
2.024
Mohamed Sanu CIN 
92.8
45
2.062
DeAndre Hopkins HOU 
90.4
42
2.152
Sammy Watkins BUF 
89
38
2.342
Kelvin Benjamin CAR 
86.9
40
2.173
Golden Tate DET 
98.4
56
1.757
Emmanuel Sanders DEN 
104.8
62
1.690
Brandon LaFell NE 
81.4
36
2.261
Allen Hurns JAC 
76.6
29
2.641
Julio Jones ATL 
89.5
54
1.657
Terrance Williams DAL 
78.6
27
2.911
Alshon Jeffery CHI
76.8
43
1.786
Malcom Floyd SD 
71
28
2.536
Mike Wallace MIA 
76.4
38
2.011
Eddie Royal SD 
67.3
28
2.404
Mike Evans TB 
70
32
2.188
Torrey Smith BAL 
67.1
22
3.050
Andre Holmes OAK 
64
25
2.560
Julian Edelman NE 
72.9
60
1.215
Martavis Bryant PIT 
47
11
4.273
Eric Decker NYJ 
66.6
40
1.665
Brandon Marshall CHI
66.4
34
1.953
Brandin Cooks NO 
65.8
49
1.343
Travis Benjamin CLE 
43.7
17
2.571
Anquan Boldin SF 
66
45
1.467
Brian Quick STL 
55.5
25
2.220
Percy Harvin NYJ 
45.2
52
0.869
Andre Johnson HOU 
58.3
48
1.215
Odell Beckham NYG 
45.5
19
2.395
Pierre Garcon WAS 
63.8
42
1.519
A.J. Green CIN 
54.3
25
2.172
Roddy White ATL 
59.9
33
1.815
Justin Hunter TEN 
47.1
20
2.355
Reggie Wayne IND 
62.4
42
1.486
James Jones OAK 
60.3
39
1.546
Larry Fitzgerald ARI 
61.3
35
1.751
Allen Robinson JAC 
60.8
43
1.414
John Brown ARI 
56
27
2.074
Keenan Allen SD 
53.4
47
1.136
Kendall Wright TEN
61.3
37
1.657
Michael Floyd ARI 
51.1
24
2.129
Vincent Jackson TB 
56.3
32
1.759
Andrew Hawkins CLE 
57.2
40
1.430
Steve Johnson SF 
53.6
28
1.914
Calvin Johnson DET 
46.8
22
2.127
Greg Jennings MIN 
57.9
35
1.654
Michael Crabtree SF 
54.6
38
1.437
Taylor Gabriel CLE 
50.1
27
1.856
Kenny Britt STL 
41.5
20
2.075
Markus Wheaton PIT 
53.4
35
1.526
Cordarrelle Patterson MIN 
53.8
33
1.630
Devin Hester ATL 
40.6
20
2.030
Marques Colston NO 
48.4
28
1.729
Miles Austin CLE 
50.7
31
1.635
Rueben Randle NYG 
49
38
1.289
Jordan Matthews PHI 
49.3
32
1.541
Kenny Stills NO 
43.3
24
1.804
Doug Baldwin SEA 
46.9
34
1.379
Victor Cruz NYG 
39.7
23
1.726
Robert Woods BUF 
39.4
28
1.407

TE:

Player
MF Pts
Touches
Pts/Touch
Rob Gronkowski NE 
114.3
49
2.333
Antonio Gates SD 
98.5
35
2.814
Julius Thomas DEN 
96
32
3.000
Greg Olsen CAR 
83.9
45
1.864
Martellus Bennett CHI 
81.7
47
1.738
Jimmy Graham NO 
79.8
46
1.735
Delanie Walker TEN 
71.5
35
2.043
Dwayne Allen IND 
79.4
26
3.054
Larry Donnell NYG 
59.7
37
1.614
Travis Kelce KC 
65.9
32
2.059
Daniel Fells NYG
32.5
9
3.611
Coby Fleener IND 
53.5
22
2.432
Jason Witten DAL 
51.8
34
1.524
Josh Hill NO
30.2
9
3.356
Owen Daniels BAL 
50.8
33
1.539
Heath Miller PIT 
50.1
35
1.431
Jordan Cameron CLE 
31
13
2.385
Niles Paul WAS 
46.9
30
1.563
Zach Ertz PHI 
45.8
25
1.832
Lance Kendricks STL
37.5
17
2.206
Timothy Wright NE 
36
18
2.000
Charles Clay MIA 
39
27
1.444
Jace Amaro NYJ 
34.5
32
1.078
Scott Chandler BUF 
35
23
1.522
Jared Cook STL
34.3
30
1.143
Mychal Rivera OAK 
32.2
28
1.150
Clay Harbor JAC
30.4
22
1.382

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