Tuesday, October 8, 2013

Market Fantasy #22 - Week 5 Consistency Ranks and FA


Hello and welcome to Market Fantasy!

Below you will find the updated consistency rankings for week 5. The ranks are based on a combination of player weekly scoring average and the standard deviation of the scores. A full description of how the ranks are calculated can be found here. As always, the players are listed with the relevant information so you can do your own research and work with the info how you like.
For week six, here are some players to highlight as pickups based on the ranks.

QB:
Jay Cutler: I know I talked up Cutler a little bit in this column last week, and at the risk of being a total homer, I have to recommend him again this week (and actually next week also). If you’re a Matt Ryan owner, look to Cutler this Thursday against the terrible Giants. If you listened to me two weeks ago, you picked up Alshon Jeffrey and I’m telling you he’s not going away as another weapon for Cutler. Martellus Bennett avoided a nasty injury last week and the Chicago defense is going to leave this team in some shootouts this week. I can easily see Cutler throwing for 300 yards with a score or two and probably the requisite two turnovers. All in all, not bad.

Terelle Pryor: There really has only been one week where Terelle Pryor didn’t put up starter level fantasy stats, and that was week two where I started him in a league. He’s working against a tough KC defense this week, but he still should be able to continue to get it done with the arm and legs for owners in a pinch this week. Between the two, I think Pryor probably has the highest ceiling, but Cutler has the highest floor.

RB:
Da’Rel Scott: I’m guessing running back is kind of a wasteland in most competitive league, but in a pinch, owners might want to look at Da’Rel Scott. The previously cut back was re-signed by the Giants in light of the David Wilson injury Sunday. With a short turnaround and Wilson not practicing Monday, Scott has a good chance to play this week. The Bears are generally tough on runners, but Pierre Thomas scored twice against them last week and Scott shouldn’t need too much time to get back up to speed. I see some opportunity for him this week as a desperation flex.

Pierre Thomas: When all was said and done Sunday, Thomas didn’t have a great yardage day on the ground, but he did have 55 yards through the air with two TDs. Thomas only sports a 2.9 YPC this year on the ground, but he has over 200 yards through the air with the two touchdowns. The running back in New Orleans to own is still certainly Sproles, but Thomas should still get his touches and has a chance to get a short yardage score this week against the Patriots. Thomas will be a hot commodity after this week, and I wouldn’t break the bank on him, but he could be useful as a desperation bye week flex.

WR:
Denarius Moore: Denarius Moore might not still be out there, but if he is, you should grab him. Averaging 10.5 points this year, if you take away his week 2 dud, and that number jumps to 13.2 points. Moore has teased owners before, but right now, he is playing at a decent level and is a good WR2 replacement for owners looking for bye week options. He also has the tough KC matchup, but Oakland should be forced to throw in this one and Moore is the clear cut #1 WR on his team.

Austin Pettis: Much was made of the Rams passing game in the off season between new tight end Jared Cook and the Tavon Austin vs. Chris Givens debate. It turns out the St. Louis WR to own so far has been Austin Pettis. Pettis is averaging 9.2 points per game this year, and before you say that is artificially propped up by last week’s 16.9 points, you could just as easily argue that his 1.6 point week 1 showing is pulling it down. Four TDs this year has helped mask some pedestrian point totals, but you can’t discount them completely. He has a tough matchup this week against Houston, but he could perform as a WR3 for owners in a pinch.

TE:
Greg Olsen: I’ve already mentioned Garrett Graham and Jordan Reed in this space, so I will mention Olsen. So far this year, he is averaging 8.3 points per game with a relatively small 3.64 standard deviation on that. Cam Newton’s recent play leaves owners a little leery of investing in the Carolina passing game, but Newton is looking to the air more instead of running and Olsen has benefitted so far. If you’ve been rolling with Tony Gonzalez or Charles Clay, give Olsen a look.

That’s all for now. Who are you picking up this week? Thanks for reading and good luck in week 6!

QB:
Player
Avg
Std Dev
Ryan, Matt QB ATL
26.6
4.336635
Luck, Andrew QB IND
22.5
4.511585
Cutler, Jay QB CHI
22.8
5.423283
Stafford, Matthew QB DET
22.4
4.773007
Griffin III, Robert QB WAS
22.6
6.93447
Rivers, Philip QB SD
30.1
9.514957
Tannehill, Ryan QB MIA
17.6
3.250477
Brees, Drew QB NO
31.1
10.50912
Pryor, Terrelle QB OAK
19.9
5.912275
Bradford, Sam QB STL
22.5
8.928292
Roethlisberger, Ben QB PIT
18.1
5.481332
Manning, Peyton QB DEN
43.3
13.30609
Wilson, Russell QB SEA
20.6
7.97461
Vick, Michael QB PHI
23.4
11.72621
Weeden, Brandon QB CLE
11.7
1.677962
Smith, Alex QB KC
20
7.621129
Ponder, Christian QB MIN
15.1
5.349351
Rodgers, Aaron QB GB
28.4
13.53763
Locker, Jake QB TEN
20.2
9.569581
Romo, Tony QB DAL
28.9
14.9027
Fitzpatrick, Ryan QB TEN
16.6
6.3
Newton, Cam QB CAR
20.2
9.599577
Dalton, Andy QB CIN
14
5.636098
Flacco, Joe QB BAL
15.3
6.578328
Brady, Tom QB NE
17.2
7.22313
Manuel, EJ QB BUF
14.5
6.541254
Smith, Geno QB NYJ
18.2
10.34284
Palmer, Carson QB ARI
12.2
7.033065
Manning, Eli QB NYG
18.7
13.00163
Hoyer, Brian QB CLE
17.8
11.23951
Schaub, Matt QB HOU
18.2
12.50398
Kaepernick, Colin QB SF
16.2
13.62565


 RB:

Player
Avg
Std Dev
Forte, Matt RB CHI
15.1
2.223511
Charles, Jamaal RB KC
19.1
2.834502
Morris, Alfred RB WAS
11.2
3.118493
Jackson, Steven RB ATL
9.5
2.7
Richardson, Trent RB IND
8.7
2.327746
Jackson, Fred RB BUF
14
3.895433
Williams, DeAngelo RB CAR
9.6
3.170962
Martin, Doug RB TB
11.2
4.034229
Johnson, Chris RB TEN
8.6
3.561685
McFadden, Darren RB OAK
11.4
5.152366
Richardson, Daryl RB STL
6.2
2.792848
McCoy, LeSean RB PHI
20.2
7.477165
Peterson, Adrian RB MIN
21.3
7.841038
Powell, Bilal RB NYJ
10.7
5.007834
Bradshaw, Ahmad RB IND
11.6
5.971599
Green-Ellis, BenJarvus RB CIN
7.6
3.688685
Ridley, Stevan RB NE
4.7
1.955761
Tate, Ben RB HOU
5
2.938979
Scott, Da'Rel RB NYG
5.4
3.021175
Gore, Frank RB SF
12.8
6.874765
Foster, Arian RB HOU
13.8
7.157821
Moreno, Knowshon RB DEN
14
7.380948
Ellington, Andre RB ARI
6.5
3.625686
Bolden, Brandon RB NE
6
3.398366
Mathews, Ryan RB SD
6.8
3.815233
Lynch, Marshawn RB SEA
15.1
9.448894
Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAC
6.2
3.681521
Murray, DeMarco RB DAL
14.2
8.695884
Bush, Reggie RB DET
17.1
10.16993
Mendenhall, Rashard RB ARI
7.7
4.99023
Bernard, Giovani RB CIN
10
6.13697
Lacy, Eddie RB GB
7.4
4.533088
Spiller, C.J. RB BUF
7.9
5.202692
Bell, Joique RB DET
11
7.719689
Brown, Donald RB IND
4.6
3.146724
Reece, Marcel RB OAK
4.9
3.482456
Snelling, Jason RB ATL
8.5
5.630275
Pierce, Bernard RB BAL
6.5
5.007754
Woodhead, Danny RB SD
9.3
6.417351
Rodgers, Jacquizz RB ATL
8.1
5.827727
Sproles, Darren RB NO
10.8
8.509853
Thomas, Pierre RB NO
8.5
6.395811
Thomas, Daniel RB MIA
4.7
3.599667
Hunter, Kendall RB SF
5
3.84862
Hillman, Ronnie RB DEN
6
4.396999
Miller, Lamar RB MIA
7
5.338389
Rice, Ray RB BAL
9.4
7.701096
Starks, James RB GB
10.7
10.84835
Blount, LeGarrette RB NE
4.9
4.196379
McGahee, Willis RB CLE
6.2
5.152561
Stacy, Zac RB STL
2.7
3.7
Helu, Roy RB WAS
4.9
5.594361
Franklin, Johnathan RB GB
4.9
9.75


WR:
Player
Avg
Std Dev
Welker, Wes WR DEN
14.3
3.599444
Nelson, Jordy WR GB
14.5
5.911588
Jones, James WR GB
13
5.598214
Amendola, Danny WR NE
9.4
3.95
Shorts, Cecil WR JAC
10
4.828002
Jones, Julio WR ATL
15.9
6.874184
Wayne, Reggie WR IND
10.8
5.554458
Marshall, Brandon WR CHI
12.8
6.006863
Moore, Denarius WR OAK
10.5
7.204332
Cobb, Randall WR GB
14.6
6.806752
Burleson, Nate WR DET
9
4.205023
Floyd, Malcom WR SD
8.9
4.25
Woods, Robert WR BUF
8.4
3.910703
Garcon, Pierre WR WAS
12.5
6.554531
Gordon, Josh WR CLE
15.8
7.683894
Decker, Eric WR DEN
11.1
6.347472
Bryant, Dez WR DAL
16.5
9.146059
Baldwin, Doug WR SEA
7.2
2.283331
Cotchery, Jerricho WR PIT
9.9
5.627833
Edelman, Julian WR NE
10.3
6.145568
Ginn, Ted WR CAR
8.8
5.063596
Pettis, Austin WR STL
9.2
5.48693
Simpson, Jerome WR MIN
10
6.216309
Johnson, Calvin WR DET
15.3
8.850141
Jackson, DeSean WR PHI
16.3
10.08801
Smith, Torrey WR BAL
13.9
7.245247
Smith, Steve WR CAR
6.6
2.707744
Colston, Marques WR NO
7.5
3.744115
Brown, Marlon WR BAL
8.2
4.554393
Johnson, Andre WR HOU
9.3
5.576953
Hartline, Brian WR MIA
9.6
5.997866
Nicks, Hakeem WR NYG
8.6
5.394905
Cruz, Victor WR NYG
16.5
12.00227
Floyd, Michael WR ARI
6
2.357456
Wright, Kendall WR TEN
6.5
3.321084
Kerley, Jeremy WR NYJ
6.6
3.862237
Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI
9.4
6.263098
Williams, Mike WR TB
7.1
3.965476
Thomas, Demaryius WR DEN
14.8
10.70196
Avery, Donnie WR KC
7.9
5.1631
Brown, Antonio WR PIT
14.9
12.61249
Washington, Nate WR TEN
10.8
8.684377
Tate, Golden WR SEA
6.5
4.572964
Jeffery, Alshon WR CHI
14.5
12.74918
Jennings, Greg WR MIN
9.3
7.131269
Bowe, Dwayne WR KC
6.1
4.724235
Green, A.J. WR CIN
11.8
10.9185
Johnson, Steve WR BUF
8.5
6.450339
Thompkins, Kenbrell WR NE
9.7
7.820639
Hilton, T.Y. WR IND
10.6
10.50992
Boldin, Anquan WR SF
11.7
12.14456
Brown, Vincent WR SD
6
4.828085
Royal, Eddie WR SD
9.9
9.735379
Jackson, Vincent WR TB
8.5
7.1044
Hopkins, DeAndre WR HOU
7.7
6.741691
Allen, Keenan WR SD
8
7.225111
Wallace, Mike WR MIA
8
7.664829
Randle, Rueben WR NYG
8.2
8.046018
Hankerson, Leonard WR WAS
7.6
7.212966
Holmes, Santonio WR NYJ
8.8
10.23948
Hill, Stephen WR NYJ
6.5
6.942262
Williams, Terrance WR DAL
7.9
10.68749


TE:
Player
Avg
Std Dev
Olsen, Greg TE CAR
8.3
3.642372
Graham, Jimmy TE NO
21.9
7.210714
Gates, Antonio TE SD
12
6.101344
Walker, Delanie TE TEN
5.5
1.407693
Clay, Charles TE MIA
10.2
5.630488
Cameron, Jordan TE CLE
14.5
7.406322
Reed, Jordan TE WAS
5.5
1.675974
Celek, Brent TE PHI
6
3.961376
Graham, Garrett TE HOU
6.4
4.115443
Finley, Jermichael TE GB
6.8
4.188078
Daniels, Owen TE HOU
8.6
5.352607
Thomas, Julius TE DEN
15.6
9.26529
Davis, Vernon TE SF
11.6
7.431016
Bennett, Martellus TE CHI
9.2
6.185273
Myers, Brandon TE NYG
5.4
3.778227
Miller, Heath TE PIT
5.2
1.75
Winslow, Kellen TE NYJ
5.8
4.400781
Witten, Jason TE DAL
10.5
8.049497
Gonzalez, Tony TE ATL
11
9.940905
Fleener, Coby TE IND
6
5.9553
Chandler, Scott TE BUF
5.3
4.496843
Cumberland, Jeff TE NYJ
5.2
4.644949
Cook, Jared TE STL
7.9
9.676239


DST:
Player
Avg
Std Dev
Browns DST CLE
18
4.38178
Buccaneers DST TB
16.8
4.322904
Saints DST NO
16.2
4.489989
Seahawks DST SEA
19.8
7.6
Chiefs DST KC
26.6
8.236504
Broncos DST DEN
14.8
4.833218
Ravens DST BAL
17.4
7.418895
Patriots DST NE
15.2
6.112283
Colts DST IND
18.2
8.4
Titans DST TEN
18.8
8.518216
Bills DST BUF
14.8
5.455273
Jaguars DST JAC
7.2
2.712932
Chargers DST SD
8
2.828427
Giants DST NYG
4.8
2.4
Falcons DST ATL
9.2
3.840573
Raiders DST OAK
15
6.572671
Panthers DST CAR
21.5
17.18284
Steelers DST PIT
6
3.741657
Lions DST DET
12.8
5.3066
Bengals DST CIN
15.8
7.959899
Texans DST HOU
12
5.215362
Vikings DST MIN
14
6.480741
Redskins DST WAS
17
9.110434
Eagles DST PHI
9.6
4.963869
Jets DST NYJ
12.2
6.337192
Rams DST STL
10
6.196773
Cowboys DST DAL
16.2
9.724197
Cardinals DST ARI
16.2
9.846827
Dolphins DST MIA
13.4
7.787169
Packers DST GB
13.8
8.073878
49ers DST SF
15.4
9.414882
Bears DST CHI
13.6
8.616264

2 comments:

  1. Nice stuff Eric. I've actually been starting Pryor all year in my 14 team league. Other owners LOL'd at me, but I'm the one sitting in 1st.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Mario! Got to wait on QB in a 14 teamer otherwise you get stuck with garbage, especially at RB.

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