Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Market Fantasy #30 - Week 9 Consistency Ranks and Free Agents

Hello and Welcome to Market Fantasy!

Below you will find the updated consistency rankings for week 8. The ranks are based on a combination of player weekly scoring average and the standard deviation of the scores. A full description of how the ranks are calculated can be found here. As always, the players are listed with the relevant information so you can do your own research and work with the info how you like.

Week 9 is going to be another challenge with byes. Thankfully, there weren’t any injuries of note in week 8 to add to the challenge of filling out an actual roster. There were some breakout performances, though, that have a lot of people buzzing. I talked about Andre Ellington a few weeks ago, and if you didn’t give up on him after the tough Seattle game (or didn’t have a choice to play him in week 8 like me) and started him last week, good for you. With Mendenhall down, Ellington seized the opportunity. Even though he split the carries still, Ellington exploded for 150+ rushing yards and a score. Mendy has the bye to get healed, but the Cardinals have to give Ellington his. If he’s somehow out there on the waiver wire, go get him. Spend whatever FAAB money you need to. He could be a real difference maker.

There were two receivers with big games in week 8 as well. Let’s start with Jones. He’s a guy who I’ve looked at in my 14 teamer for a couple weeks now, but just couldn’t make the add. Sunday, he went off for four touchdowns. He didn’t play that many snaps, but still hauled in all 8 of his targets. I would definitely add Jones this week as long as you’re not chasing the touchdowns, and can handle a boom/bust type player. He has 4 useful games in 7 this year, and is clearly a red zone favorite of Dalton’s, who happens to be on fire right now.

As for Stills, I would add him third out of this group. He’s another guy who will be a boom/bust player due to his limited snaps. Despite the big game, he did only have three catches on the day. That being said, Colston looks done and Lance Moore will continue to be inconsistent himself. Drew Brees loves to spread the wealth and the Saints use enough three receiver sets for Stills to still matter as a WR3/flex type guy. Go ahead and make the add, just don’t break the bank.

Now for something you’ll really enjoy! Below are a few more free agent suggestions for week 9.

QB:
Ryan Tannehill:  I’m breaking my own rules here by suggesting someone I’ve already talked about, but we can’t ignore what Tannehill is doing this year. He has a tough week against a Cincy team that destroyed the Jets, but Tannehill is what I want in a bye week replacement. Decent average with a small standard deviation. For my fill ins, I like to have as high a floor as possible and try to get the best chance at replicating my starter’s production. Losing Gibson might hurt, but he still should be a decent fill in on a week where a lot of QB’s are off.

Jake Locker: Locker might actually be a better play than Tannehill against the Rams. Yes, they really disrupted Seattle last night, but that Seattle line looks bad. The Rams also completely whiffed on the Tate bomb. This is a defense that gives it up through the air, and Locker has been really good this year since coming back from his injury.

RB:
I talked about Ellington earlier, and he is a top priority, absolute must add, even ahead of the bye week. With running back being so brutal right now, there are a couple others who could be useful. I talked about Donald Brown in an earlier column, and he could be worth a bye week add given that he’s outperformed Trent Richardson so far. Another guy is James Starks. Eddie Lacy is clearly the number one in Green Bay, but Starks looked good this past week, and with a matchup against an almost non-existent Bears defense Monday night, Starks could be in line for some decent garbage time points. Lamar Miller got most of the work in week 8, but Daniel Thomas still scored, and he’s not going to go away. He could be worth a Hail Mary in week 9 if you’re hurting at running back.

WR:
Kendall Wright: I’ve already talked about the top two WR pickups for this week, but if you miss out on them, give Wright a look. Aside from the nice matchup, I like him for all the same reasons I like Tannehill. He’s been giving consistently solid production, averaging 7 points a game with a small standard deviation.

Others to look at this week include: Emmanuel Sanders, Marlon Brown, and Aaron Dobson

TE:
Greg Olsen: Two of the top three most consistent tight ends by my ranks are probably free agents in a lot of leagues. Greg Olsen is the definition of a boom or bust type player, but he does have some useful games, and gets a nice matchup against a suspect Atlanta pass defense this week. The 6.9 point per game average is a little inflated by week two’s 14 point performance, but he has been useful more often than not.

Delanie Walker: What can I say about the Titans this week? I guess I love them. Walker has quietly put together a useful season. He has a hot quarterback right now, and has the afore mentioned nice matchup with the Rams. If you’re a Julius Thomas or Vernon Davis owner, give him a look.

Thanks for reading and good luck!

QB:

Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Ryan, Matt  ATL
25.2
5.817
2
Stafford, Matthew  DET
26.7
6.728
3
Tannehill, Ryan  MIA
17.6
3.103
4
Wilson, Russell  SEA
20.6
6.801
5
Pryor, Terrelle  OAK
18.8
5.258
6
Rodgers, Aaron  GB
27.4
10.526
7
Luck, Andrew  IND
22.3
8.401
8
Rivers, Philip  SD
26.2
10.087
9
Newton, Cam  CAR
23.7
10.004
10
Brees, Drew  NO
31.7
11.293
11
Cassel, Matt  MIN
17.4
5.050
12
Locker, Jake  TEN
21.9
9.243
13
Roethlisberger, Ben  PIT
16.9
4.552
14
Griffin III, Robert  WAS
20
8.970
15
Manning, Peyton  DEN
37.7
13.552
16
Glennon, Mike  TB
17.3
5.941
17
Smith, Alex  KC
18.7
7.571
18
Cutler, Jay  CHI
19.6
9.580
19
Ponder, Christian  MIN
15.2
4.638
20
Romo, Tony  DAL
25
13.418
21
Flacco, Joe  BAL
17.1
6.954
22
Dalton, Andy  CIN
23.1
12.817
23
Brady, Tom  NE
14.8
6.924
24
Kaepernick, Colin  SF
19
11.680
25
Hoyer, Brian  CLE
17.8
11.240
26
Vick, Michael  PHI
19.4
13.973
27
Manning, Eli  NYG
15.9
10.983
28
Smith, Geno  NYJ
15.2
10.527
29
Schaub, Matt  HOU
16.4
12.106

RB:

Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Charles,  Jamaal  KC
18.6
4.014
2
Hillis,  Peyton  NYG
11.3
2.800
3
Morris,  Alfred  WAS
12
3.000
4
Williams,  DeAngelo  CAR
9.6
2.942
5
Jackson,  Fred  BUF
12.6
4.364
6
Martin,  Doug  TB
9.9
3.932
7
Forte,  Matt  CHI
16.5
5.573
8
McFadden,  Darren  OAK
12.3
5.500
9
Bell,  Le'Veon  PIT
11.8
5.397
10
Lacy,  Eddie  GB
11.9
5.603
11
Richardson,  Trent  IND
7.2
3.198
12
Gore,  Frank  SF
14.7
6.368
13
Johnson,  Chris  TEN
9.3
4.480
14
McCoy,  LeSean  PHI
16.7
8.068
15
Tate,  Ben  HOU
5.6
2.806
16
Bolden,  Brandon  NE
6.7
3.391
17
Jones-Drew,  Maurice  JAC
7.8
4.130
18
Moreno,  Knowshon  DEN
16
7.772
19
Green-Ellis,  BenJarvus  CIN
6.5
3.625
20
Woodhead,  Danny  SD
9.8
5.673
21
Richardson,  Daryl  STL
4.8
2.785
22
Bush,  Reggie  DET
16.2
8.227
23
Randle,  Joseph  DAL
4.6
2.287
24
Brown,  Donald  IND
4.7
2.748
25
Murray,  DeMarco  DAL
13.7
8.030
26
Peterson,  Adrian  MIN
16.2
8.696
27
Goodson,  Mike  NYJ
4
0.100
28
Mathews,  Ryan  SD
9.6
5.771
29
Thomas,  Daniel  MIA
5.8
3.785
30
Mendenhall,  Rashard  ARI
7.2
4.401
31
Tolbert,  Mike  CAR
8
5.019
32
Thomas,  Pierre  NO
8.2
5.492
33
Hunter,  Kendall  SF
5.1
3.692
34
Foster,  Arian  HOU
13.2
8.420
35
Lynch,  Marshawn  SEA
15.2
9.708
36
Jackson,  Steven  ATL
6.8
4.450
37
Miller,  Lamar  MIA
7.3
4.852
38
Ridley,  Stevan  NE
9.6
6.679
39
McGahee,  Willis  CLE
4.9
3.903
40
Powell,  Bilal  NYJ
7.9
5.516
41
Bernard,  Giovani  CIN
9.3
6.026
42
Stacy,  Zac  STL
8
5.665
43
Bell,  Joique  DET
9.4
6.765
44
Spiller,  C.J.  BUF
6.7
4.984
45
Robinson,  Khiry  NO
4.1
3.810
46
Hillman,  Ronnie  DEN
4.9
4.186
47
Rice,  Ray  BAL
8.3
6.514
48
Rodgers,  Jacquizz  ATL
8.7
6.632
49
Pierce,  Bernard  BAL
5.4
4.586
50
Starks,  James  GB
10.9
9.405
51
Snelling,  Jason  ATL
7.3
5.781
52
Ellington,  Andre  ARI
9.5
8.096
53
Sproles,  Darren  NO
8.8
7.878
54
Ogbonnaya,  Chris  CLE
4.9
4.778
55
Helu,  Roy  WAS
7.5
7.604
56
Jacobs,  Brandon  NYG
7.1
9.869


WR:

Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Welker, Wes  DEN
13.4
3.259
2
Nelson, Jordy  GB
16.6
6.826
3
Burleson, Nate  DET
9
4.205
4
Jones, Julio  ATL
15.9
6.874
5
Wayne, Reggie  IND
9.7
5.116
6
Floyd, Malcom  SD
8.9
4.25
7
Johnson, Andre  HOU
9.2
4.719
8
Marshall, Brandon  CHI
13.1
6.212
9
Moore, Denarius  OAK
10
5.886
10
Shorts, Cecil  JAC
8.2
4.216
11
Gordon, Josh  CLE
14.6
8.131
12
Bryant, Dez  DAL
14.9
8.502
13
Smith, Steve  CAR
7.4
3.23
14
Garcon, Pierre  WAS
9.6
5.996
15
Cobb, Randall  GB
12.7
7.129
16
Fitzgerald, Larry  ARI
9.8
6.616
17
Wright, Kendall  TEN
7
3.027
18
Hartline, Brian  MIA
8.4
5.502
19
Johnson, Steve  BUF
8.8
5.67
20
Gibson, Brandon  MIA
7.2
4.155
21
Floyd, Michael  ARI
6.9
2.488
22
Brown, Mike  JAC
7.9
5.182
23
Thomas, Demaryius  DEN
13.7
8.759
24
Sanders, Emmanuel  PIT
7.7
5.104
25
Smith, Torrey  BAL
11
7.793
26
Decker, Eric  DEN
11.4
7.967
27
Allen, Keenan  SD
9.7
7.057
28
Blackmon, Justin  JAC
13.9
9.486
29
Green, A.J.  CIN
14.9
9.985
30
Brown, Marlon  BAL
7.1
4.325
31
Jackson, DeSean  PHI
13.5
9.707
32
Jackson, Vincent  TB
13.9
10.22
33
Johnson, Calvin  DET
20
14.32
34
Ginn, Ted  CAR
7
4.668
35
Nicks, Hakeem  NYG
7.3
5.121
36
Dobson, Aaron  NE
6.3
3.784
37
Tate, Golden  SEA
8.1
6.273
38
Jones, James  GB
10.6
8.563
39
Edelman, Julian  NE
7.8
5.984
40
Kerley, Jeremy  NYJ
6.7
5.068
41
Williams, Terrance  DAL
9.3
8.231
42
Hopkins, DeAndre  HOU
7.8
6.403
43
Jeffery, Alshon  CHI
13.1
11.38
44
Cruz, Victor  NYG
12.8
10.62
45
Brown, Antonio  PIT
11.8
10.25
46
Cotchery, Jerricho  PIT
6.8
5.384
47
Washington, Nate  TEN
8.8
8.088
48
Randle, Rueben  NYG
7.8
7.055
49
Wallace, Mike  MIA
7.7
6.583
50
Royal, Eddie  SD
9
9.002
51
Simpson, Jerome  MIN
6.9
5.966
52
Douglas, Harry  ATL
8.4
8.075
53
Pettis, Austin  STL
6.5
5.584
54
Jones, Marvin  CIN
10.9
11.87
55
Boldin, Anquan  SF
9.3
10.15
56
Hankerson, Leonard  WAS
6.2
5.809
57
Thompkins, Kenbrell  NE
7.6
7.211
58
Hilton, T.Y.  IND
8.5
9.447
59
Jennings, Greg  MIN
6.5
6.342
60
LaFell, Brandon  CAR
7.1
7.673
61
Holmes, Santonio  NYJ
8.8
10.24
62
Stills, Kenny  NO
7.7
9.578

TE:

Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Walker, Delanie  TEN
6
2.61
2
Finley, Jermichael  GB
8
3.761
3
Olsen, Greg  CAR
6.9
3.634
4
Miller, Heath  PIT
5.3
2.344
5
Clay, Charles  MIA
8.8
5.307
6
Graham, Jimmy  NO
17.9
6.971
7
Reed, Jordan  WAS
9
6.249
8
Gates, Antonio  SD
9.4
6.57
9
Cameron, Jordan  CLE
12.3
6.633
10
Bennett, Martellus  CHI
8.5
5.345
11
Daniels, Owen  HOU
8.6
5.353
12
Gronkowski, Rob  NE
8.6
5.85
13
Chandler, Scott  BUF
5.8
4.249
14
Kendricks, Lance  STL
4.2
2.8
15
Eifert, Tyler  CIN
4.4
2.977
16
Graham, Garrett  HOU
5.5
4.088
17
Thomas, Julius  DEN
12.4
8.609
18
Gresham, Jermaine  CIN
4.1
2.541
19
Clark, Dallas  BAL
5.5
4.251
20
Winslow, Kellen  NYJ
5.8
4.401
21
Davis, Vernon  SF
14.1
10.38
22
Myers, Brandon  NYG
4.1
3.663
23
Rudolph, Kyle  MIN
5.7
4.972
24
Fleener, Coby  IND
5.9
5.491
25
Gonzalez, Tony  ATL
8.6
9.179
26
Cumberland, Jeff  NYJ
4.6
4.379
27
Miller, Zach  SEA
5.2
4.491
28
Wright, Timothy  TB
3.7
4.065
29
Witten, Jason  DAL
7.7
7.365
30
Celek, Brent  PHI
4.2
4.311
31
Cook, Jared  STL
6.3
7.935
32
Fauria, Joseph  DET
4.8
7.336


Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Saints  NO
16.1
4.357
2
Seahawks  SEA
20.1
6.274
3
Raiders  OAK
15.6
5.852
4
Patriots  NE
15.2
5.974
5
Ravens  BAL
16.4
6.455
6
Bills  BUF
14
5.477
7
Packers  GB
15.1
6.379
8
Falcons  ATL
10.3
3.651
9
Eagles  PHI
10.5
4.213
10
Cowboys  DAL
16.9
8.536
11
Texans  HOU
10.9
5.222
12
Broncos  DEN
14.8
6.398
13
49ers  SF
16
7.599
14
Colts  IND
16.4
7.926
15
Chiefs  KC
24.8
10.52
16
Titans  TEN
16.6
8.846
17
Jaguars  JAC
6.8
3.455
18
Panthers  CAR
20.9
13.15
19
Chargers  SD
11
6.071
20
Lions  DET
10.2
5.953
21
Jets  NYJ
12.1
6.412
22
Redskins  WAS
15.1
7.698
23
Bengals  CIN
16.2
10.47
24
Dolphins  MIA
13.3
6.606
25
Browns  CLE
13.8
7.241
26
Vikings  MIN
12
6.59
27
Cardinals  ARI
15.5
9.11
28
Steelers  PIT
9.7
6.363
29
Buccaneers  TB
11.6
6.842
30
Bears  CHI
13.1
7.772
31
Rams  STL
15.1
11.02
32
Giants  NYG
8.8
8.074


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