Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Market Fantasy #27 - Week 8 FA and Consistency


Hello and Welcome to Market Fantasy!

Below you will find the updated consistency rankings for week 7. The ranks are based on a combination of player weekly scoring average and the standard deviation of the scores. A full description of how the ranks are calculated can be found here. As always, the players are listed with the relevant information so you can do your own research and work with the info how you like.

Week 8 is going to be a challenge. There are six teams on bye, and after last week, half of the NFL is now hurt. If you haven’t been hit by the injury bug this year, I’m guessing you are from the future and know better, or should stop reading and go to Vegas Immediately, because you’re obscenely lucky. Check back to my previous consistency and FA columns since I try not to repeat myself. Normally, I only focus on players who can help in the coming week, but with so many byes, I’ve included a couple players to hold. These are guys you probably don’t have to blow a waiver or FAAB money on tonight, but maybe can pick up once waivers pass tonight.

Thanks for reading and good luck!

QB:
Ben Roethlisberger: Depending on your league size and set up, Big Ben might still be out there and could be a good fill in for those with bye issues/were rolling with Cutler or Bradford. Ben hasn’t set the world on fire this year, but he just got Heath Miller back and Le’Veon Bell should make the running game watchable. Ben also has a nice matchup against a suspect Oakland secondary this week. While he’s only averaging 17.5 per game, he has a low standard deviation, so you have a reasonable idea of where his floor is, and it’s pretty solid.
Jake Locker: is a guy I might stash for those with later bye weeks or just in case injuries finally claim every other starting quarterback. Locker is on a bye this week and is coming off an injury himself, but has played well when he has played. Take away his week one bomb, and he’s posted pretty good stats. He also will run, which always helps his floor. Take a flier on him.
RB:
Daniel Thomas: If you are hurting at running back and want to just give up, I get that. RB has turned into a post-apocalyptic wasteland this year. Mike James and Chris Ivory are the priority adds, but if you can’t get them and are brave enough to soldier on, I like taking a spec pick up on Thomas. We saw last week that he just isn’t going to go away. New England gave up 100 yards to Ivory last week because it’s impossible to have 30 carries and not hit 100 yards. Thomas should have a shot at a score and a few yards this week. Not exactly a ringing endorsement, but you do what you gotta do.
Peyton Hillis: Here’s another not exactly ringing endorsement, but you could do worse. Hillis had the most carries last week and was the back on passing downs. He has a great matchup against the terrible Eagles defense. He’s not a long term solution with Andre Brown expected back soon and Brandon Jacobs back soon (possibly this week) as well. For those in a pinch, he has a good shot as anyone for a score.

If you have the bench space, and they’re out there, take a look at Shane Vereen and Donald Brown. Donald Brown has outperformed Trent Richardson, which isn’t all that hard, but is notable. On a bye this week, I wouldn’t be surprised if he forced a 50-50 split with T-Rich going forward. Vereen can’t come back fast enough for the Pats. He was a buzzy guy in the offseason and lit it up in week one before getting hurt. Due back in week 11, he is the kind of player who can put a struggling team over the edge or win you a championship. He is arguably the best back on the Pats and should slide right back into his role as Darren Sproles – New England edition.
WR:
Brandon Gibson: Gibson is your typical boom and bust type player at first blush, and it’s easy to overrate last week’s outburst. A closer look at the numbers reveals only one really unusable week. He might be third in line for targets in Miami’s offense, but he has produced in the past and could easily produce again. For the year, he’s averaging 7.4 points per game with a relatively small standard deviation of 4.4.
Golden Tate: Tate has been hugely inconsistent this year, but has nice games in three out of his last five. Russell Wilson has come to life lately, and while he spreads the ball around, the Seahawks get to face a very generous St. Louis defense this week. Granted this game could easily get out of hand four minutes in, causing Seattle to just run out the clock, but I like Tate for the chance at a big play.

TE:
Heath Miller: Tight end is real thin this week with injuries and byes, so I like Miller as a fill in. He’s averaging around six points per game when he plays and has a small standard deviation from that, so you have a good expectation of what you’ll be getting. Miller also gets to face a bad Oakland defense, so is a good bet to put up some decent stats in what could be a high scoring game.

 QB:

Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Ryan, Matt QB ATL
27
4.047393
2
Stafford, Matthew QB DET
25.7
6.612758
3
Tannehill, Ryan QB MIA
18
3.135637
4
Pryor, Terrelle QB OAK
18.8
5.75868
5
Griffin III, Robert QB WAS
22.4
7.461847
6
Roethlisberger, Ben QB PIT
17.5
4.626374
7
Cassel, Matt QB MIN
17.4
5.05
8
Rivers, Philip QB SD
26.2
10.08687
9
Brees, Drew QB NO
29.3
10.37214
10
Wilson, Russell QB SEA
20.8
7.247632
11
Luck, Andrew QB IND
22.3
8.401312
12
Bradford, Sam QB STL
21.4
8.091946
13
Locker, Jake QB TEN
21.9
9.243463
14
Rodgers, Aaron QB GB
27.5
11.36316
15
Newton, Cam QB CAR
22.4
10.20011
16
Glennon, Mike QB TB
17.4
6.859219
17
Smith, Alex QB KC
17.8
7.681597
18
Manning, Peyton QB DEN
38.4
14.37095
19
Weeden, Brandon QB CLE
13.6
3.781534
20
Flacco, Joe QB BAL
17.1
6.954429
21
Cutler, Jay QB CHI
19.6
9.580465
22
Ponder, Christian QB MIN
15.1
5.349351
23
Vick, Michael QB PHI
23.4
11.72621
24
Dalton, Andy QB CIN
20.1
10.78271
25
Romo, Tony QB DAL
24.7
14.32495
26
Manuel, EJ QB BUF
14.5
6.541254
27
Palmer, Carson QB ARI
13.4
6.515132
28
Brady, Tom QB NE
15.6
7.032925
29
Hoyer, Brian QB CLE
17.8
11.23951
30
Lewis, Thad QB BUF
16.9
9.45
31
Smith, Geno QB NYJ
16.9
10.15321
32
Fitzpatrick, Ryan QB TEN
13.1
7.138627
33
Kaepernick, Colin QB SF
17.4
11.66698
34
Manning, Eli QB NYG
16.8
11.4738
35
Schaub, Matt QB HOU
16.4
12.10584
36
Foles, Nick QB PHI
13.9
12.02048

 RB:

Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Charles, Jamaal RB KC
19.5
3.362336
2
Morris, Alfred RB WAS
11.4
2.885596
3
Williams, DeAngelo RB CAR
9.3
3.106266
4
Jackson, Fred RB BUF
12.8
4.636017
5
Martin, Doug RB TB
9.9
3.931673
6
Forte, Matt RB CHI
16.5
5.573406
7
McFadden, Darren RB OAK
10.8
4.774935
8
Richardson, Trent RB IND
7.2
3.198405
9
Johnson, Chris RB TEN
9.3
4.480343
10
Lacy, Eddie RB GB
10.9
5.568986
11
McCoy, LeSean RB PHI
18.2
7.573962
12
Tate, Ben RB HOU
5.6
2.80597
13
Green-Ellis, BenJarvus RB CIN
7
3.651111
14
Gore, Frank RB SF
14.2
6.697517
15
Bradshaw, Ahmad RB IND
11.6
5.971599
16
Bell, Le'Veon RB PIT
12
6.216287
17
Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAC
7.1
4.034393
18
Bolden, Brandon RB NE
6.2
3.552239
19
Bernard, Giovani RB CIN
10.2
5.864142
20
Lynch, Marshawn RB SEA
16.9
9.077872
21
Brown, Donald RB IND
4.7
2.748333
22
Mendenhall, Rashard RB ARI
7.2
4.400603
23
Woodhead, Danny RB SD
9.8
5.672742
24
Moreno, Knowshon RB DEN
15.6
8.209477
25
Bush, Reggie RB DET
16.2
8.885647
26
Peterson, Adrian RB MIN
16.5
9.354975
27
Scott, Da'Rel RB NYG
4.7
2.998666
28
Richardson, Daryl RB STL
4.8
3.007999
29
Mathews, Ryan RB SD
9.6
5.770615
30
Murray, DeMarco RB DAL
13.7
8.029529
31
Thomas, Daniel RB MIA
4.9
3.32265
32
Foster, Arian RB HOU
13.2
8.42019
33
Powell, Bilal RB NYJ
8.5
5.671159
34
Rodgers, Jacquizz RB ATL
9.8
6.508307
35
Tolbert, Mike RB CAR
7.2
5.057228
36
Robinson, Khiry RB NO
4.9
3.860295
37
McGahee, Willis RB CLE
5.3
4.151626
38
Ellington, Andre RB ARI
7
4.881577
39
Sproles, Darren RB NO
10.2
7.878381
40
Miller, Lamar RB MIA
6.7
4.950673
41
Spiller, C.J. RB BUF
6.7
4.98422
42
Hunter, Kendall RB SF
4.7
3.827387
43
Pierce, Bernard RB BAL
5.4
4.585514
44
Snelling, Jason RB ATL
7.3
5.780835
45
Reece, Marcel RB OAK
4.2
3.756594
46
Hillman, Ronnie RB DEN
4.9
4.186275
47
Thomas, Pierre RB NO
8
5.91009
48
Ridley, Stevan RB NE
8.8
6.957191
49
Bell, Joique RB DET
9.1
7.18658
50
Stacy, Zac RB STL
6.4
5.091353
51
Rice, Ray RB BAL
8.3
6.514258
52
Starks, James RB GB
10.7
10.84835
53
Ogbonnaya, Chris RB CLE
5.2
5.032385
54
Ivory, Chris RB NYJ
4.1
4.389666
55
Helu, Roy RB WAS
8.3
7.911946
56
Jacobs, Brandon RB NYG
7.1
9.868657
60
Randle, Joseph RB DAL
4.6
0.05

 WR:

Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Welker, Wes WR DEN
13.3
3.473515
2
Nelson, Jordy WR GB
14.8
5.649385
3
Moore, Denarius WR OAK
11.1
4.92926
4
Burleson, Nate WR DET
9
4.205023
5
Smith, Steve WR CAR
7.9
3.198654
6
Floyd, Malcom WR SD
8.9
4.25
7
Johnson, Andre WR HOU
9.2
4.718656
8
Jones, Julio WR ATL
15.9
6.874184
9
Wayne, Reggie WR IND
9.7
5.115922
10
Marshall, Brandon WR CHI
13.1
6.211707
11
Wright, Kendall WR TEN
7
3.026954
12
Shorts, Cecil WR JAC
8.3
4.471173
13
Floyd, Michael WR ARI
6.8
2.503712
14
Hartline, Brian WR MIA
9.2
5.569685
15
Garcon, Pierre WR WAS
10.4
6.089244
16
Blackmon, Justin WR JAC
17.5
8.269354
17
Gibson, Brandon WR MIA
7.4
4.473502
18
Cobb, Randall WR GB
12.7
7.129488
19
Edelman, Julian WR NE
8.8
5.72039
20
Baldwin, Doug WR SEA
6
2.772754
21
Brown, Marlon WR BAL
7.1
4.325409
22
Gordon, Josh WR CLE
13
8.084207
23
Bryant, Dez WR DAL
14.3
8.913507
24
Williams, Mike WR TB
6.3
3.874739
25
Decker, Eric WR DEN
12.4
8.009892
26
Nicks, Hakeem WR NYG
7.6
5.348728
27
Allen, Keenan WR SD
9.7
7.057082
28
Smith, Torrey WR BAL
11
7.793299
29
Green, A.J. WR CIN
15
10.67285
30
Streater, Rod WR OAK
5.7
3.177219
31
Sanders, Emmanuel WR PIT
6.1
3.759728
32
Colston, Marques WR NO
6.4
4.159327
33
Thomas, Demaryius WR DEN
13.7
9.363825
34
Jackson, DeSean WR PHI
14.6
9.956866
35
Kerley, Jeremy WR NYJ
7.3
5.18794
36
Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI
9.7
7.061537
37
Jackson, Vincent WR TB
14.9
10.71323
38
Tate, Golden WR SEA
6.2
4.064982
39
Johnson, Calvin WR DET
16
11.32662
40
Doss, Tandon WR BAL
5
2.153509
41
Johnson, Steve WR BUF
8.1
6.046619
42
Dobson, Aaron WR NE
5.4
3.237798
43
Woods, Robert WR BUF
6.5
4.520881
44
Randle, Rueben WR NYG
8.9
7.054887
45
Bowe, Dwayne WR KC
5.9
4.033685
46
Ginn, Ted WR CAR
6.8
5.021288
47
Jones, Marvin WR CIN
6.9
5.084535
48
Cotchery, Jerricho WR PIT
7.3
5.551
49
Simpson, Jerome WR MIN
7.7
6.041431
50
Jones, James WR GB
10.6
8.562819
51
Jones, Jacoby WR BAL
5.3
3.503649
52
Cruz, Victor WR NYG
13.4
11.21986
53
Brown, Mike WR JAC
7.1
5.765992
54
Hopkins, DeAndre WR HOU
7.8
6.403124
55
Jeffery, Alshon WR CHI
13.1
11.37663
56
Wallace, Mike WR MIA
8.1
7.003035
57
Jennings, Greg WR MIN
7.5
6.38664
58
Thompkins, Kenbrell WR NE
8.6
7.211442
59
Brown, Antonio WR PIT
12.3
10.96916
60
Pettis, Austin WR STL
7
5.822966
61
Washington, Nate WR TEN
8.8
8.088238
62
Amendola, Danny WR NE
6.3
5.461583
63
Brown, Vincent WR SD
5.1
4.317643
64
Royal, Eddie WR SD
9
9.00229
65
Boldin, Anquan WR SF
9.8
10.75379
66
Avery, Donnie WR KC
5.9
5.52571
67
LaFell, Brandon WR CAR
7.9
7.878172
68
Williams, Terrance WR DAL
8.7
8.832138
69
Holmes, Santonio WR NYJ
8.8
10.23948
70
Hilton, T.Y. WR IND
8.5
9.447427
71
Cooper, Riley WR PHI
6.4
6.687156
72
Hankerson, Leonard WR WAS
6.1
6.270411
73
Douglas, Harry WR ATL
7.3
8.208329
74
Hill, Stephen WR NYJ
5.5
6.186747
75
Rice, Sidney WR SEA
5.6
6.725735

 TE:

Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Finley, Jermichael TE GB
8
3.761383
2
Clay, Charles TE MIA
9.6
5.299188
3
Miller, Heath TE PIT
6.1
1.803469
4
Walker, Delanie TE TEN
6
2.610341
5
Olsen, Greg TE CAR
6.6
3.887051
6
Graham, Jimmy TE NO
18.2
7.210714
7
Daniels, Owen TE HOU
8.6
5.352607
8
Cameron, Jordan TE CLE
12.9
6.882631
9
Bennett, Martellus TE CHI
8.5
5.345339
10
Gates, Antonio TE SD
9.4
6.569938
11
Reed, Jordan TE WAS
9
6.845027
12
Thomas, Julius TE DEN
13.7
8.36743
13
Davis, Vernon TE SF
14.6
11.13253
14
Miller, Zach TE SEA
5.9
4.560439
15
Winslow, Kellen TE NYJ
5.8
4.400781
16
Graham, Garrett TE HOU
5.5
4.088194
17
Clark, Dallas TE BAL
5.5
4.251046
18
Gonzalez, Tony TE ATL
9.6
9.549651
19
Cumberland, Jeff TE NYJ
5.1
4.054331
20
Chandler, Scott TE BUF
5.6
4.504873
21
Witten, Jason TE DAL
8.5
7.468956
22
Rudolph, Kyle TE MIN
5.8
5.363897
23
Fleener, Coby TE IND
5.9
5.491478
24
Cook, Jared TE STL
6.8
8.383268
25
Fauria, Joseph TE DET
5.4
7.335658

 DST:

Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Saints DST NO
15.5
4.387482
2
Bills DST BUF
14.9
5.329931
3
Seahawks DST SEA
20.6
6.586938
4
Ravens DST BAL
16.4
6.455499
5
Raiders DST OAK
14.8
6.011563
6
Patriots DST NE
14.3
5.774681
7
Broncos DST DEN
13.1
5.111013
8
Packers DST GB
15
6.879922
9
Falcons DST ATL
10.3
3.878144
10
Colts DST IND
16.4
7.925675
11
Cowboys DST DAL
17.9
8.692009
12
Chiefs DST KC
27.1
8.982977
13
Jaguars DST JAC
7.4
3.155817
14
Eagles DST PHI
10
4.27618
15
Jets DST NYJ
13.3
6.016983
16
49ers DST SF
16.1
8.113984
17
Texans DST HOU
10.9
5.221619
18
Lions DST DET
11.4
5.421047
19
Titans DST TEN
16.6
8.845615
20
Panthers DST CAR
21.5
14.10378
21
Browns DST CLE
13.7
7.740696
22
Redskins DST WAS
14.7
8.219219
23
Chargers DST SD
11
6.071008
24
Dolphins DST MIA
13.5
7.112196
25
Giants DST NYG
6.4
5.602478
26
Buccaneers DST TB
12.5
6.970175
27
Vikings DST MIN
12.3
7.063207
28
Bears DST CHI
13.1
7.772269
29
Bengals DST CIN
13.6
8.243736
30
Cardinals DST ARI
14.1
8.951114
31
Steelers DST PIT
9
6.608076
32
Rams DST STL
13.6
10.92647

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