Hello and welcome to Market Fantasy!
Earlier in the preseason, I did a piece on boom and bust players.
The idea of that post was to give managers and idea of how much of a crapshoot
some players while others are deliver more consistent performances. By
combining high ceiling, low floor players with the consistent guys, an owner
can almost hedge their bets and actually build a pretty consistent roster.
Now that we’ve finished the first quarter of the season as
Lovie Smith would drawl, I want to take a look at the boom and bust idea in a
slightly different light. For this post, I’m only including players who have
exceeded or failed to reach their average score three games so far this year.
The hope is that we can identify some potential buy low or sell high guys. A
player whose year to date score is artificially inflated by one outstanding
performance would be a good sell if you can convince an owner that a high
overall score is worth the price. Conversely, a player whose average is dragged
down by one dud game could be worth going to get with a bit of a lowball offer.
The players’ average and weekly scores are included for your reference and I’m
not including any players who have scored 0 or been on bye so far as those
would adversely skew the results. Click through and get those offers out there!
QB:
|
Player
|
Week 1
|
Week 2
|
Week 3
|
Week 4
|
Avg
|
Above Avg.
|
|
Rivers, Philip SD
|
31.6
|
40.9
|
13.4
|
37
|
30.7
|
3
|
|
Luck, Andrew IND
|
28.9
|
23.6
|
14.8
|
23
|
22.6
|
3
|
|
Schaub, Matt HOU
|
32.8
|
25.9
|
5.8
|
25.7
|
22.6
|
3
|
|
Cutler, Jay CHI
|
21.3
|
24.6
|
13.5
|
24.6
|
21
|
3
|
|
Dalton, Andy CIN
|
19.5
|
18.2
|
17.7
|
5.5
|
15.2
|
3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Below Avg.
|
|
Manning, Peyton DEN
|
65.5
|
27.3
|
34
|
40.1
|
41.7
|
3
|
|
Brady, Tom NE
|
19.5
|
13.4
|
19.5
|
27.6
|
20
|
3
|
|
Manning, Eli NYG
|
41.8
|
15.5
|
4.2
|
9.9
|
17.8
|
3
|
This is an interesting group of players. Do you believe in
the Rivers revival? Concerned about Andrew Luck not airing it out more? Is it
possible to trust your fantasy team to Jay Cutler? I would think about low
balling the Rivers owner to see if they’re not buying the resurgence. On the
other side, no one is selling Peyton and I would run very far away from his
little brother, but what about Tom Brady? Gronk and Amendola aren’t far off and
some of his rookies are starting to come around. Can you convince Brady’s owner
that the Pats passing game is not up to snuff this year?
RB:
|
Player
|
Week 1
|
Week 2
|
Week 3
|
Week 4
|
Avg
|
Above Avg.
|
|
McFadden, Darren
OAK
|
12.6
|
16.7
|
13.5
|
2.9
|
11.4
|
3
|
|
Green-Ellis, BenJarvus
CIN
|
8.9
|
8
|
6.9
|
1.3
|
6.3
|
3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Below Avg.
|
|
Murray, DeMarco DAL
|
12.5
|
7.4
|
31.3
|
9
|
15.1
|
3
|
|
Sproles, Darren NO
|
11
|
6.2
|
5.6
|
27.2
|
12.5
|
3
|
|
Martin, Doug TB
|
10.5
|
17.4
|
10.8
|
6.1
|
11.2
|
3
|
|
Ellington, Andre
ARI
|
1.3
|
12.2
|
5.5
|
5.1
|
6
|
3
|
|
Woodhead, Danny SD
|
1.6
|
6.4
|
6.6
|
20.6
|
8.8
|
3
|
|
Mendenhall, Rashard
ARI
|
6.4
|
15.4
|
4.1
|
1.4
|
6.8
|
3
|
|
Hillman, Ronnie DEN
|
4.2
|
0.3
|
13.8
|
5.7
|
6
|
3
|
|
Jones-Drew, Maurice
JAC
|
4.5
|
2.8
|
12.2
|
2.8
|
5.6
|
3
|
DMC is currently hurt, but he was having a nice year. I
might try to make a really lowball offer to his owner and play up the injury
history. On the sell side, what’s
your take on Doug Martin? The number two pick in most drafts was putting up
decent numbers, but what does the team turning to a rookie QB do to his value?
I think I would be selling Martin and Murray. Ellington is a guy I might actually
be looking to buy though given Mendenhall’s porcelain knees/terrible
performance. His big game might be a sign of things to come. And MJD sucks. If
you have him, I’m sorry, you’re stuck with him.
WR:
|
Player
|
Week 1
|
Week 2
|
Week 3
|
Week 4
|
Avg
|
Above Avg.
|
|
Brown, Marlon BAL
|
12.5
|
10.5
|
0.6
|
9.4
|
8.2
|
3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Below Avg.
|
|
Jones, Julio ATL
|
11.6
|
29.2
|
15.2
|
13.8
|
17.4
|
3
|
|
Brown, Antonio PIT
|
7.5
|
5.7
|
36.6
|
9.8
|
14.9
|
3
|
|
Smith, Torrey BAL
|
9.2
|
8.5
|
9.2
|
27.6
|
13.6
|
3
|
|
Green, A.J. CIN
|
33.2
|
4.1
|
10.6
|
5.1
|
13.3
|
3
|
|
Garcon, Pierre WAS
|
6.4
|
23.3
|
8.3
|
11.9
|
12.5
|
3
|
|
Decker, Eric DEN
|
3.2
|
8.7
|
22.3
|
8.8
|
10.8
|
3
|
|
Cotchery, Jerricho
PIT
|
9.4
|
5.9
|
5.2
|
19.3
|
9.9
|
3
|
|
Jeffery, Alshon CHI
|
4.2
|
4.1
|
5.1
|
24.4
|
9.4
|
3
|
|
Jennings, Greg MIN
|
3.3
|
8.4
|
4.3
|
21.2
|
9.3
|
3
|
|
Hopkins, DeAndre
HOU
|
6.6
|
20.7
|
6
|
2.7
|
9
|
3
|
|
Jackson, Vincent TB
|
20.4
|
7.7
|
3.4
|
2.7
|
8.5
|
3
|
|
Avery, Donnie KC
|
7.1
|
4
|
17.1
|
2.3
|
7.6
|
3
|
|
Wallace, Mike MIA
|
1.5
|
20.5
|
2.2
|
2.4
|
6.6
|
3
|
If you read my column, you know I want you to go get Marlon
Brown, so if you haven’t, get to work. Antonio Brown and Torrey Smith are
interesting cases. Each has had one otherworldly game (both playing against me,
so, hooray) and three pedestrian contests. With a hopefully renewed focus on
the ground game for both teams, these both might be good sells. Especially
Smith since the Ravens seem to realize that Flacco throwing 50 times a game
benefits absolutely no one on the Ravens. Jennings is a bit of a quandary. He
blew up with Cassel, but Minnesota is saying they’re sticking with Ponder. Was
the breakout despite the QB? I tend to think Jennings had one good game and I
would try to sell based on past name recognition. Lastly so I can pat myself on
the back, I told everyone to get Alshon Jeffrey last week and he went off. What
do you do with him now? He’s going to be too inconsistent to start confidently
every week, but the Bears D doesn’t look good and they could be in a lot of
shootouts. Cutler really seems to be starting to trust him based on the volume
of targets. If someone wants to pay a WR2 price for him though, I’d take it.
TE:
|
Player
|
Week 1
|
Week 2
|
Week 3
|
Week 4
|
Avg
|
Above Avg.
|
|
Graham, Jimmy NO
|
10.5
|
28.9
|
28.4
|
25
|
23.2
|
3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Below Avg.
|
|
Thomas, Julius DEN
|
26
|
10.7
|
9.7
|
4.3
|
12.7
|
3
|
|
Gonzalez, Tony ATL
|
9.6
|
3.3
|
2.4
|
29.9
|
11.3
|
3
|
|
Daniels, Owen HOU
|
18.7
|
8.4
|
2.9
|
7.2
|
9.3
|
3
|
|
Cook, Jared STL
|
27.1
|
1
|
4.4
|
4.5
|
9.2
|
3
|
|
Witten, Jason DAL
|
19
|
1.2
|
6.7
|
4.3
|
7.8
|
3
|
You’re probably not going to be able to get Jimmy Graham,
but if you are loaded in one position and can afford a stud or two, make an
offer. Julius Thomas has seen his point total decline every week. With Manning,
he can blow up any time, but there are a lot of more established mouths to feed
in that offense. Owen Daniels is looking like he’s losing looks to Graham, so
he might be a good sell. What do you do with Jared Cook? Can we stay tantalized
by the monster first week, or are 12 more 4 point games in the offing? I would
still try to get out if I could get $.75 on the dollar.
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