Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Market Fantasy #25 - Week 7 Free Agent Pick Ups and Consistency Rankings


Hello and welcome to Market Fantasy!

Below you will find the updated consistency rankings for week 6. The ranks are based on a combination of player weekly scoring average and the standard deviation of the scores. A full description of how the ranks are calculated can be found here. As always, the players are listed with the relevant information so you can do your own research and work with the info how you like.

For week seven, here are some players to highlight as pickups based on the ranks, but first, I want to point out what Justin Blackmon has done. After serving his four game suspension, Blackmon has 326 yards and a touchdown on 29 (!) targets. In two games. If you drafted and held or managed to trade for him, well played. You’re probably 2-0 the last two weeks.


QB:
Sam Bradford: I’ve already mentioned guys like Cutler, Tannehill and Pryor in this space, so if they’re available, I’d go get them first (especially the surprising Cutler, who gets another terrible defense this week). If those guys are gone, take a look at Sam Bradford this week. He has a seemingly bad matchup on paper against the Niners, but the Cardinals were able to move the ball pretty effectively last week. As we saw this week against the Texans, it can be maddening to own a St. Louis receiver because Bradford will literally throw to anyone, but all that matters when you own him is that those guys catch the ball. Bradford’s standard deviation is a bit high, but the average is right and he only really has one bad game in week four.

RB:
BJGE: Other guys to get I’ve already mentioned are: Andre Ellington and Danny Woodhead, so get them if you can. If someone has dropped Green-Ellis, I would still pick him up as a flex consideration. Despite everyone wanting Bernard to get most of the touches, the Law Firm is simply not going away as evidenced by his 7.7 per game average. His numbers don’t jump off the page, but he’s had only one really unusable week so far this year. He should continue to put up some yards with a good shot at a score.

Roy Helu: Helu is more of a desperation flex type guy or pick up and stash, but his last two games have been useful, especially week four when he had to fill in for the injured Alfred Morris. Still, Helu has looked good in limited work this year and is entrenched as the passing down back.

WR:
Michael Floyd: I’ve already talked about Emmanuel Sanders, Alshon Jeffrey, Marlon Brown among others in this space, so let’s talk a little about Michael Floyd. Floyd tends to get lost in the talk between Andre Roberts and Larry Fitzgerald, but lately he has been putting up some useful numbers of his own. Floyd has far superior numbers to Roberts in both targets and yards. You’d like to see more than one touchdown, but he’s clearly the number two behind an ailing Fitzgerald.

Reuben Randle: Randle was widely hyped and largely drafted this year, but if an impatient owner dropped him (like me. Great.) give him a look if you can. Randle had a huge week 1, and then disappeared for the next three weeks before breaking out again the last two weeks. He actually only has three less targets and more touchdowns than the widely owned Hakeem Nicks. Against the terrible Vikings, I would give him a look.

TE:
Charles Clay: I’ve previously talked up Jordan Reed and Garrett Graham and Clay actually, but I want to mention him again. He’s coming off a bye week, so he might still be available. If you’re still holding onto a Jared Cook or a Coby Fleener for some reason (yeah, that’s me too in a couple leagues), just… stop. Pick up one of these guys. Reed and Clay have the best matchups (Chi and Buf) and while Graham has the tough KC matchup (and worse yet, possibly TJ Yates throwing to him). Tight ends past the top five or six are a dime a dozen. I would try to pick up two of these guys and play matchups the rest of the way.

Lastly, let’s take a moment to appreciate what Joseph Fauria has done this year. 9 targets, 7 catches, 5 touchdowns. Boss.

QB:


Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Ryan, Matt  ATL
26.6
4.336635
2
Cutler, Jay  CHI
23.1
4.991131
3
Stafford, Matthew  DET
24.1
5.75297
4
Tannehill, Ryan  MIA
17.6
3.250477
5
Roethlisberger, Ben  PIT
18
4.905262
6
Pryor, Terrelle  OAK
18.9
5.697227
7
Rivers, Philip  SD
27.6
10.24153
8
Brees, Drew  NO
29.3
10.37214
9
Luck, Andrew  IND
20
6.782514
10
Cassel, Matt  MIN
17.4
5.05
11
Griffin III, Robert  WAS
20.8
7.186543
12
Bradford, Sam  STL
22.6
8.15305
13
Wilson, Russell  SEA
19.9
7.44931
14
Newton, Cam  CAR
23.5
10.83576
15
Weeden, Brandon  CLE
14
4.132191
16
Locker, Jake  TEN
20.2
9.569581
17
Rodgers, Aaron  GB
27.1
12.40581
18
Manning, Peyton  DEN
39
15.42258
19
Freeman, Josh  MIN
9.6
2.006656
20
Brady, Tom  NE
17.1
6.600189
21
Ponder, Christian  MIN
15.1
5.349351
22
Smith, Alex  KC
18
8.274543
23
Vick, Michael  PHI
23.4
11.72621
24
Flacco, Joe  BAL
17.3
7.496369
25
Romo, Tony  DAL
25.9
15.17814
26
Manuel, E.J.  BUF
14.5
6.541254
27
Dalton, Andy  CIN
17.3
9.124463
28
Hoyer, Brian  CLE
17.8
11.23951
29
Palmer, Carson  ARI
13.5
7.032405
30
Glennon, Mike  TB
15.3
7.6
31
Fitzpatrick, Ryan  TEN
13.1
7.138627
32
Smith, Geno  NYJ
16
10.688
33
Manning, Eli  NYG
17.2
12.34999
34
Foles, Nick  PHI
16
11.46977
35
Schaub, Matt  HOU
16.4
12.10584
36
Kaepernick, Colin  SF
16.8
12.51303


RB:

Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Charles, Jamaal  KC
20.1
3.338371
2
Forte, Matt  CHI
14.4
2.518377
3
Morris, Alfred  WAS
11.8
3.020861
4
Williams, DeAngelo  CAR
10
2.957972
5
Jackson, Steven  ATL
9.5
2.7
6
Martin, Doug  TB
10.8
3.704808
7
Richardson, Trent  IND
8.1
2.466441
8
Jackson, Fred  BUF
12.5
4.950084
9
McFadden, Darren  OAK
10.8
4.774935
10
McCoy, LeSean  PHI
19.8
6.870408
11
Johnson, Chris  TEN
8
3.460612
12
Powell, Bilal  NYJ
9.8
5.047249
13
Green-Ellis, BenJarvus  CIN
7.7
3.389526
14
Foster, Arian  HOU
15.3
7.351568
15
Gore, Frank  SF
12.9
6.276522
16
Mathews, Ryan  SD
7.9
4.221243
18
Peterson, Adrian  MIN
18.7
8.736681
19
Bernard, Gio  CIN
11
6.037568
20
Bell, Le'Veon  PIT
13
7.4
21
Lacy, Eddie  GB
9.4
5.273993
22
Moreno, Knowshon  DEN
16.4
8.62316
23
Bush, Reggie  DET
17.5
9.148902
24
Tate, Ben  HOU
5.7
3.030264
25
Ellington, Andre  ARI
7.9
4.638486
26
Richardson, Daryl  STL
5.4
2.945098
27
Jones-Drew, Maurice  JAC
7.4
4.305197
28
Murray, DeMarco  DAL
13.7
8.029529
29
Lynch, Marshawn  SEA
17.2
9.782027
30
Spiller, C.J.  BUF
7.7
4.774033
31
Snelling, Jason  ATL
8.5
5.630275
32
Woodhead, Danny  SD
9.2
5.893688
33
Mendenhall, Rashard  ARI
7.1
4.734419
34
Bolden, Brandon  NE
5.2
3.259122
35
Rodgers, Jacquizz  ATL
8.1
5.827727
36
Hunter, Kendall  SF
5.3
3.460058
37
Hillman, Ronnie  DEN
5.6
4.110724
38
Sproles, Darren  NO
10.2
7.878381
39
McGahee, Willis  CLE
5.6
4.575205
40
Pierce, Bernard  BAL
5.9
4.745788
41
Thomas, Pierre  NO
8
5.91009
42
Bell, Joique  DET
9.7
7.606138
43
Rice, Ray  BAL
8.5
7.116853
44
Miller, Lamar  MIA
7
5.338389
45
Starks, James  GB
10.7
10.84835
46
Ridley, Stevan  NE
8.4
7.526115
47
Ogbonnaya, Chris  CLE
5.8
5.188904
48
Tolbert, Mike  CAR
6.8
5.417232
49
Helu, Roy  WAS
5.5
5.125388
50
Jacobs, Brandon  NYG
7.1
9.868657


WR:

Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Blackmon, Justin  JAC
23.3
0.7
2
Welker, Wes  DEN
14
3.369306
3
Nelson, Jordy  GB
15.7
5.770061
4
Moore, Denarius  OAK
11.1
4.92926
5
Marshall, Brandon  CHI
14.1
6.230949
6
Wayne, Reggie  IND
10.5
5.124993
7
Gordon, Josh  CLE
15.8
6.655214
8
Burleson, Nate  DET
9
4.205023
9
Jones, Julio  ATL
15.9
6.874184
10
Floyd, Malcom  SD
8.9
4.25
11
Baldwin, Doug  SEA
6.8
2.265257
12
Smith, Steve  CAR
6.9
2.497519
13
Sanders, Emmanuel  PIT
7.2
3.142865
14
Johnson, Andre  HOU
9.2
5.095014
15
Garcon, Pierre  WAS
11.4
6.272352
16
Floyd, Michael  ARI
6.8
2.70108
17
Brown, Marlon  BAL
8
4.099463
18
Jackson, DeSean  PHI
16.7
9.242249
19
Decker, Eric  DEN
10.1
6.229879
20
Shorts, Cecil  JAC
8.3
4.828002
21
Hartline, Brian  MIA
9.6
5.997866
22
Wright, Kendall  TEN
6.6
3.035027
23
Nicks, Hakeem  NYG
8.4
5.059091
24
Edelman, Julian  NE
9.5
5.866193
25
Cobb, Randall  GB
12.7
7.129488
26
Williams, Mike  TB
7.1
3.965476
27
Fitzgerald, Larry  ARI
11
6.77235
28
Bryant, Dez  DAL
14.3
9.626944
29
Jones, Jacoby  BAL
6.3
3.9
30
Woods, Robert  BUF
7.2
4.5386
31
Smith, Torrey  BAL
11.8
8.137362
32
Moss, Santana  WAS
5.5
2.258871
33
Gibson, Brandon  MIA
5.6
2.475157
34
Johnson, Calvin  DET
12.7
9.427322
35
Doss, Tandon  BAL
5.3
1.968502
36
Colston, Marques  NO
6.4
4.159327
37
Cotchery, Jerricho  PIT
8
5.627833
38
Allen, Keenan  SD
10.3
7.386813
39
Ginn, Ted  CAR
7.5
5.24229
40
Simpson, Jerome  MIN
8.6
6.234292
41
Thompkins, Kenbrell  NE
9.8
7.146095
42
Cruz, Victor  NYG
14.8
11.53282
43
Streater, Rod  OAK
5.7
3.177219
44
Dobson, Aaron  NE
5.8
3.408812
45
Jackson, Vincent  TB
12.1
9.558117
46
Thomas, Demaryius  DEN
13.6
10.11182
47
Jones, James  GB
10.6
8.562819
48
Brown, Antonio  PIT
13.8
11.50906
49
Pettis, Austin  STL
7.9
5.836666
50
Green, A.J.  CIN
13.1
10.34966
51
Johnson, Steve  BUF
8.5
6.450339
52
Kerley, Jeremy  NYJ
5.6
3.928155
53
Tate, Golden  SEA
6
4.341531
54
Randle, Rueben  NYG
9
7.609807
55
Jeffery, Alshon  CHI
12.8
12.25738
56
Bowe, Dwayne  KC
5.8
4.346806
57
Washington, Nate  TEN
9.3
8.658217
58
Jennings, Greg  MIN
8.1
6.801
59
Amendola, Danny  NE
6.3
5.461583
60
LaFell, Brandon  CAR
8.8
8.149041
61
Jones, Marvin  CIN
6.1
5.274998
62
Avery, Donnie  KC
6.4
5.854818
63
Brown, Vincent  SD
5.5
4.534467
64
Hilton, T.Y.  IND
9.5
9.873773
65
Hopkins, DeAndre  HOU
6.8
6.425902
66
Boldin, Anquan  SF
10.2
11.56769
67
Wallace, Mike  MIA
8
7.664829
68
Hankerson, Leonard  WAS
6.8
6.649331
69
Hill, Stephen  NYJ
6.2
6.365218
70
Royal, Eddie  SD
8.3
9.569163
71
Holmes, Santonio  NYJ
8.8
10.23948
72
Williams, Terrance  DAL
8
9.570246
73
Cooper, Riley  PHI
6
7.298383

 TE:

Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Finley, Jermichael  GB
7
3.69256
2
Miller, Heath  PIT
6.3
2.060744
3
Olsen, Greg  CAR
7
4.149506
4
Clay, Charles  MIA
10.2
5.630488
5
Graham, Jimmy  NO
18.2
7.210714
6
Reed, Jordan  WAS
5.6
1.456022
7
Daniels, Owen  HOU
8.6
5.352607
8
Gates, Antonio  SD
10.4
6.532653
9
Cameron, Jordan  CLE
13.2
7.407354
10
Bennett, Martellus  CHI
8.8
5.71793
11
Thomas, Julius  DEN
14.4
8.893959
12
Walker, Delanie  TEN
5.1
1.613915
13
Graham, Garrett  HOU
5.8
4.293437
14
Chandler, Scott  BUF
6.2
4.575083
15
Davis, Vernon  SF
16.3
11.47979
16
Kendricks, Lance  STL
5.1
2.628529
17
Cumberland, Jeff  NYJ
5.3
4.193149
18
Winslow, Kellen  NYJ
5.8
4.400781
19
Rudolph, Kyle  MIN
6.4
5.67838
20
Witten, Jason  DAL
9.2
7.896764
21
Gonzalez, Tony  ATL
11
9.940905
22
Clark, Dallas  BAL
5.3
4.650763
23
Celek, Brent  PHI
5.1
4.382967
24
Cook, Jared  STL
7.4
8.924638
25
Fauria, Joseph  DET
6.1
6.56709
26
Fleener, Coby  IND
5.3
5.680498


DST:

Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Saints  NO
15.5
4.387482
2
Seahawks  SEA
20
6.952218
3
Broncos  DEN
14.3
4.533824
4
Ravens  BAL
16.8
6.890009
5
Browns  CLE
15.7
6.574361
6
Raiders  OAK
14.8
6.011563
7
Titans  TEN
18.7
7.781745
8
Bills  BUF
14
5.291503
9
Bengals  CIN
15.5
7.29726
10
Chiefs  KC
29
9.237604
11
Lions  DET
12.7
4.853407
12
Buccaneers  TB
14.2
6.4
13
Falcons  ATL
9.2
3.840573
14
Patriots  NE
14
6.191392
15
Colts  IND
16.5
8.558621
16
Giants  NYG
4.3
2.426703
17
Jaguars  JAC
8
3.05505
18
Chargers  SD
8.8
3.184162
19
Cowboys  DAL
16.8
8.989191
20
Eagles  PHI
9.7
4.533824
21
Panthers  CAR
21
15.4013
22
Jets  NYJ
12.2
5.785518
23
49ers  SF
15.5
8.59748
24
Texans  HOU
10.7
5.617433
25
Packers  GB
14.2
7.277362
26
Redskins  WAS
15.2
8.908423
27
Cardinals  ARI
14.8
9.49415
28
Dolphins  MIA
13.4
7.787169
29
Bears  CHI
13.7
8.279828
30
Vikings  MIN
11.6
7.525955
31
Rams  STL
14.5
11.5434
32
Steelers  PIT
9.2
7.222188

2 comments:

  1. Curious why you didn't call out a DAL running back. Not big on Injury replacements or see too diluted a backfield?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Yeah, Randle didn't seem all that great, Murray might only be out a week, Dunbar is the best backup, but his status is up in the air. Seems like an avoid

    ReplyDelete