Hello and welcome to Market Fantasy!
Below, I have the week three consistency rankings for each
position. As I noted in my first consistency rankings post here,
these ranks are based on a combination of a players average score year to date
and the standard deviation of those scores. The average scores and standard
deviations used to calculate these ranks are included and for ranking purposes,
I cut off at 4 average points for RB, TE, and WR otherwise, the lists would be
longer than they currently are.
Using these ranks, I wanted to highlight a couple players at
each position who might still be available on your waiver wire. Week 4 in the
NFL means the start of bye weeks, but with only two teams on bye (Packers and
Panthers), the need for replacements might not be completely there yet. These
players might be more helpful down the road as more bye weeks occur and the
dreaded injury strikes. When you’re looking for a guy to just plug in for a
week, you’re looking for the highest possible floor out there. Consistency is
king!
QB:
Ryan Tannehill: In his second year, Tannehill is
showing signs of a breakout and building on a strong rookie campaign. Averaging
almost 300 yards (275 to be exact) per game and with 4 touchdowns to 2 interceptions,
he has given us an average of 17.7 fantasy points. Yes, only 152 of those yards
and 1 touchdown have gone to Mike Wallace, but who cares? We’re focusing on the
guy chucking it here.
With a small standard deviation, you know what you’re going to get when
you plug Tannehill in the starting lineup. While a lot of people would prefer
the upside of a running QB like Terelle Pryor, there’s something to be said for
a replacement that you can plug in and expect somewhere in the range of 15-19
fantasy points.
Andy Dalton:
Big Red might not excite too many people, but he is having a
remarkably consistent season with 18.5 fantasy points and a standard deviation
on that of only .76 points. So far this year, he’s thrown for just under 800
yards, with 5 TD’s to 3 picks. With AJ Green starting the same way he did last
year averaging about a TD per game, there’s a lot to like about picking Dalton
and plugging him for a week or two.
RB:
Fred Jackson: Jackson is most likely gone in most
leagues and with the Spiller injury, he’s going to be a hot pickup, but it’s
worth noting his 11.4 per game average with a small standard deviation of .78.
Plug him in and you’re getting a player with around a 10 point floor. Not bad.
Daniel Thomas: I get it. A dude with 96 total yards
through three games isn’t setting anyone’s world on fire. What should be of
interest, though, is the two TD’s so far this year in weeks 1 and 3
respectively. Starter Lamar Miller isn’t lighting up anyone’s scoreboard and
Thomas has so far been a relatively consistent TD vulture. He can be relied on
as a flex or desperation #2 RB during the byes.
Everyone know what Bilal Powell and Brandon Bolden
did this past weekend, but I want to mention Ahmad Bradshaw here as
well. Maybe he was dropped or maybe owner is looking to cash out, but I might
go get him if I needed help at RB. He’s coming off a couple of double digit points
games. An 11.4 point average will definitely play, and that standard deviation
of almost six is inflated by his week three in which he was still getting going
after missing time in the preseason with injury. Count me as a non-believer in
Trent Richardson at this point, but having him to spell Bradshaw should keep
Ahmad healthier this year, and Bradshaw is the superior pass blocker. I would
give him a look if I could.
WR:
Doug Baldwin: While the Seattle passing game has yet
to really get going (much to my frustration as an owner who went Russelin’ in
more than one league), Doug Baldwin has managed to be remarkably consistent so
far this year. Sporting an even 8 points per game and a relatively small
standard deviation of just over two, Baldwin can be plugged in at the flex or
WR3 in a pinch. Most promising is the fact that he has been able to do this
despite only scoring one touchdown on the year so far, giving us a TD/total
point ratio of only 25%. He’s getting his points through yardage and not
crapshoot touchdowns.
Emmanuel Sanders: We all saw what Antonio Brown did this past Sunday night
against the Bears. It appears that the Steelers are going to have to throw a
lot this year, and Big Ben is currently averaging almost 300 passing yards a
game. Not all those balls can go to Brown. Sanders so far has 16 catches on 30
targets for 174 yards. That equates to 10 targets per game so far. He’s getting
the looks, and with Le’Veon Bell supposedly back this week, the Steelers might
finally be able to get some semblance of a running game going, which will only
help open things up for the pass. Sanders’ YTD point total may look low, but he
has yet to score. His points are all on yards. With 10 looks per game, you’d
think he should be hitting pay dirt soon.
Lastly, I want to mention Alshon Jeffery: Jeffery is a
big target who was singled out by Jay Cutler as having the best preseason of
any receiver on the Bears. Jeffrey was targeted a season high eight times and
converted seven of those for catches. While the 51 yards on those seven catches
seems like a disappointment, I prefer to look at the eight targets. The Bears
are having success throwing this year, and while there are a lot of targets to
feed, it could be only a matter of time before Jeffrey breaks out if he is
going to see this many looks per game.
TE:
Jordan Reed: So far this year, Jordan Reed and not Fred Davis has emerged
as the top tight end in Washington. To date, Reed has seen an average on 5
targets a game and hauled in 13 passes for 106 yards and one touchdown. While
continuing to be able to convert a high number of targets into catches is going
to be key to any continued success, being able to pencil in five points during
a one week emergency at the tight end spot isn’t all that bad considering the
up and down nature of the position.
That’s my take on the free agent market this week. Take a
look through the data. What stands out for you? I’d love to hear your comments.
Thanks for reading everyone!
|
|
Player
|
Avg
|
Std Dev
|
|
1
|
Stafford, Matthew
DET
|
25.7
|
3.225937
|
|
2
|
Ryan, Matt ATL
|
25.2
|
4.489989
|
|
3
|
Manuel, EJ BUF
|
19.7
|
1.925271
|
|
4
|
Romo, Tony DAL
|
21
|
4.181175
|
|
5
|
Dalton, Andy CIN
|
18.5
|
0.758654
|
|
6
|
Luck, Andrew IND
|
22.5
|
5.72771
|
|
7
|
Tannehill, Ryan MIA
|
17.7
|
1.936205
|
|
8
|
Griffin III, Robert
WAS
|
24.7
|
6.744051
|
|
9
|
Smith, Alex KC
|
20.7
|
5.127052
|
|
10
|
Cutler, Jay CHI
|
19.8
|
4.654031
|
|
11
|
Brees, Drew NO
|
28.7
|
9.389474
|
|
12
|
Vick, Michael PHI
|
30.3
|
10.46645
|
|
13
|
Bradford, Sam STL
|
25.1
|
8.195527
|
|
14
|
Brady, Tom NE
|
17.5
|
2.875568
|
|
15
|
Wilson, Russell SEA
|
21
|
6.745369
|
|
16
|
Rodgers, Aaron GB
|
32
|
13.92647
|
|
17
|
Rivers, Philip SD
|
28.6
|
11.42113
|
|
18
|
Manning, Peyton DEN
|
42.2
|
16.6546
|
|
19
|
Newton, Cam CAR
|
23.6
|
8.661922
|
|
20
|
Pryor, Terrelle OAK
|
18.6
|
6.284549
|
|
21
|
Hoyer, Brian CLE
|
27.8
|
13.10505
|
|
22
|
Freeman, Josh TB
|
9.6
|
2.006656
|
|
23
|
Roethlisberger, Ben
PIT
|
17.4
|
6.157019
|
|
24
|
Schaub, Matt HOU
|
21.5
|
11.45338
|
|
25
|
Ponder, Christian
MIN
|
15.1
|
5.349351
|
|
26
|
Weeden, Brandon CLE
|
10.7
|
5.097276
|
|
27
|
Locker, Jake TEN
|
18.3
|
10.41804
|
|
28
|
Jackson, Tarvaris
SEA
|
17.4
|
8.202439
|
|
29
|
Flacco, Joe BAL
|
15.8
|
7.653467
|
|
30
|
Manning, Eli NYG
|
20.5
|
15.75204
|
|
31
|
Henne, Chad JAC
|
8
|
6.329999
|
|
32
|
Smith, Geno NYJ
|
17.6
|
11.15616
|
|
33
|
Palmer, Carson ARI
|
13.8
|
8.410047
|
|
34
|
Kaepernick, Colin
SF
|
17.2
|
17.36324
|
|
|
Player
|
Avg
|
Std Dev
|
|
1
|
Forte, Matt CHI
|
15.4
|
1.247219
|
|
2
|
McFadden, Darren
OAK
|
14.3
|
1.759419
|
|
3
|
Jackson, Fred BUF
|
11.4
|
0.778888
|
|
4
|
Morris, Alfred WAS
|
12.6
|
2.34426
|
|
5
|
Charles, Jamaal KC
|
18.5
|
3.325658
|
|
6
|
McCoy, LeSean PHI
|
25.5
|
4.26953
|
|
7
|
Martin, Doug TB
|
12.9
|
3.184337
|
|
8
|
Johnson, Chris TEN
|
8.6
|
1.157584
|
|
9
|
Richardson, Trent
IND
|
8.4
|
0.805536
|
|
10
|
Green-Ellis, BenJarvus
CIN
|
7.9
|
0.817856
|
|
11
|
Williams, DeAngelo
CAR
|
10.5
|
3.188521
|
|
12
|
Thomas, Daniel MIA
|
7.2
|
2.379075
|
|
13
|
Sproles, Darren NO
|
7.6
|
2.416609
|
|
14
|
Mathews, Ryan SD
|
7.6
|
2.735365
|
|
15
|
Peterson, Adrian
MIN
|
18.8
|
7.469642
|
|
16
|
Powell, Bilal NYJ
|
12.7
|
5.065789
|
|
17
|
Tate, Ben HOU
|
6.9
|
2.414309
|
|
18
|
Thomas, Pierre NO
|
5.8
|
0.778888
|
|
19
|
Vereen, Shane NE
|
18.9
|
8.909545
|
|
20
|
Bell, Joique DET
|
15.9
|
6.182412
|
|
21
|
Foster, Arian HOU
|
10.3
|
4.623851
|
|
22
|
Richardson, Daryl
STL
|
8.8
|
4.199471
|
|
23
|
Gore, Frank SF
|
8.6
|
4.060378
|
|
24
|
Bolden, Brandon NE
|
10
|
4.714045
|
|
25
|
Murray, DeMarco DAL
|
17.1
|
10.27759
|
|
26
|
Ridley, Stevan NE
|
3.6
|
0.74087
|
|
27
|
Bush, Reggie DET
|
17.5
|
11.95668
|
|
28
|
Bradshaw, Ahmad IND
|
11.6
|
5.971599
|
|
29
|
Pierce, Bernard BAL
|
9
|
4.870546
|
|
30
|
Woodhead, Danny SD
|
4.9
|
2.311325
|
|
31
|
Jackson, Steven ATL
|
9.5
|
4.991548
|
|
32
|
Brown, Ronnie SD
|
4.5
|
2.004994
|
|
33
|
Bernard, Giovani
CIN
|
12.5
|
6.777577
|
|
34
|
Ballard, Vick IND
|
6.3
|
2.969848
|
|
35
|
Scott, Da'Rel NYG
|
6.3
|
2.967977
|
|
36
|
Lynch, Marshawn SEA
|
14.5
|
12.0173
|
|
37
|
Mendenhall, Rashard
ARI
|
8.6
|
4.876018
|
|
38
|
Moreno, Knowshon
DEN
|
11.2
|
8.149165
|
|
39
|
Snelling, Jason ATL
|
10.3
|
6.40538
|
|
40
|
Jones-Drew, Maurice
JAC
|
6.5
|
4.089825
|
|
41
|
Tolbert, Mike CAR
|
4.4
|
2.776489
|
|
42
|
Pead, Isaiah STL
|
4.1
|
2.638602
|
|
43
|
Reece, Marcel OAK
|
6.3
|
4.009988
|
|
44
|
Starks, James GB
|
10.7
|
10.84835
|
|
45
|
Rice, Ray BAL
|
7.8
|
5.678615
|
|
46
|
Rodgers, Jacquizz
ATL
|
4.7
|
3.676955
|
|
47
|
Ellington, Andre
ARI
|
6.3
|
4.488751
|
|
48
|
Miller, Lamar MIA
|
7
|
5.118811
|
|
49
|
Smith, Alfonso ARI
|
4.2
|
3.766519
|
|
50
|
Spiller, C.J. BUF
|
6.4
|
5.957069
|
|
51
|
Lacy, Eddie GB
|
6.1
|
5.060523
|
|
52
|
Hillman, Ronnie DEN
|
6.1
|
5.672742
|
|
53
|
Franklin, Johnathan
GB
|
6.5
|
9.239529
|
|
|
Player
|
Avg
|
Std Dev
|
|
1
|
Welker, Wes DEN
|
13.7
|
2.824103
|
|
2
|
Smith, Torrey BAL
|
9
|
0.329983
|
|
3
|
Johnson, Steve BUF
|
13.5
|
4.65212
|
|
4
|
Nelson, Jordy GB
|
16.6
|
5.368012
|
|
5
|
Colston, Marques NO
|
8.7
|
2.894055
|
|
6
|
Baldwin, Doug SEA
|
8
|
2.051016
|
|
7
|
Moss, Santana WAS
|
7.7
|
1.918912
|
|
8
|
Burleson, Nate DET
|
9
|
4.205023
|
|
9
|
Cotchery, Jerricho
PIT
|
6.8
|
1.837269
|
|
10
|
Hartline, Brian MIA
|
12.9
|
5.631657
|
|
11
|
Jones, Julio ATL
|
18.7
|
7.591808
|
|
12
|
Woods, Robert BUF
|
6.8
|
2.393045
|
|
13
|
Amendola, Danny NE
|
13.4
|
6.316821
|
|
14
|
Marshall, Brandon
CHI
|
15
|
6.915843
|
|
15
|
Sanders, Emmanuel
PIT
|
5.8
|
1.593738
|
|
16
|
Shorts, Cecil JAC
|
10.2
|
5.46687
|
|
17
|
Streater, Rod OAK
|
5.4
|
1.744197
|
|
18
|
Cobb, Randall GB
|
15.9
|
7.423087
|
|
19
|
Wayne, Reggie IND
|
8.8
|
4.834827
|
|
20
|
Smith, Steve CAR
|
6.8
|
3.103045
|
|
21
|
Dobson, Aaron NE
|
8.4
|
4.744119
|
|
22
|
Bess, Davone CLE
|
5.1
|
1.211977
|
|
23
|
Avery, Donnie KC
|
9.4
|
5.589872
|
|
24
|
Jennings, Greg MIN
|
5.3
|
2.206556
|
|
25
|
Gordon, Josh CLE
|
25.8
|
12.16224
|
|
26
|
Jackson, DeSean PHI
|
18.6
|
9.853708
|
|
27
|
Johnson, Calvin DET
|
16.9
|
9.683089
|
|
28
|
Hopkins, DeAndre
HOU
|
11.1
|
6.792643
|
|
29
|
Floyd, Malcom SD
|
8.9
|
5.462804
|
|
30
|
Jeffery, Alshon CHI
|
4.5
|
0.449691
|
|
31
|
Edelman, Julian NE
|
10.8
|
6.596127
|
|
32
|
Johnson, Andre HOU
|
9.6
|
5.887841
|
|
33
|
Washington, Nate
TEN
|
8.6
|
5.329374
|
|
34
|
Ginn, Ted CAR
|
9.1
|
5.808806
|
|
35
|
Garcon, Pierre WAS
|
12.7
|
7.558806
|
|
36
|
Floyd, Michael ARI
|
5.1
|
2.453569
|
|
37
|
Wright, Kendall TEN
|
6.5
|
4.224005
|
|
38
|
Cruz, Victor NYG
|
16.7
|
12.44267
|
|
39
|
Williams, Mike TB
|
6.2
|
4.210305
|
|
40
|
Royal, Eddie SD
|
14.9
|
9.642038
|
|
41
|
Jackson, Vincent TB
|
10.5
|
7.217109
|
|
42
|
Tate, Golden SEA
|
6.2
|
4.080305
|
|
43
|
Decker, Eric DEN
|
11.4
|
8.027868
|
|
44
|
Thompkins, Kenbrell
NE
|
8.3
|
5.495655
|
|
45
|
Pettis, Austin STL
|
7.8
|
4.982637
|
|
46
|
Brown, Antonio PIT
|
16.6
|
14.16121
|
|
47
|
Thomas, Demaryius
DEN
|
15.9
|
12.28251
|
|
48
|
Hill, Stephen NYJ
|
10.1
|
6.946942
|
|
49
|
Brown, Marlon BAL
|
7.9
|
5.202777
|
|
50
|
Jones, Marvin CIN
|
5.1
|
3.348963
|
|
51
|
Green, A.J. CIN
|
16
|
12.47139
|
|
52
|
Austin, Miles DAL
|
4.2
|
2.176133
|
|
53
|
Bryant, Dez DAL
|
11.7
|
8.637515
|
|
54
|
Gibson, Brandon MIA
|
4.6
|
2.704728
|
|
55
|
Fitzgerald, Larry
ARI
|
9.9
|
7.253045
|
|
56
|
Patterson, Cordarrelle
MIN
|
4.4
|
2.633544
|
|
57
|
Givens, Chris STL
|
6.5
|
4.934459
|
|
58
|
Simpson, Jerome MIN
|
8.3
|
6.229143
|
|
59
|
Moore, Denarius OAK
|
10.6
|
8.738548
|
|
60
|
Randle, Rueben NYG
|
6.2
|
5.016196
|
|
61
|
Roberts, Andre ARI
|
4.6
|
3.786232
|
|
62
|
Cooper, Riley PHI
|
4.3
|
3.055414
|
|
63
|
Boldin, Anquan SF
|
13.7
|
14.39915
|
|
64
|
Jones, James GB
|
10.1
|
8.504639
|
|
65
|
Austin, Tavon STL
|
8.3
|
6.513576
|
|
66
|
Holmes, Santonio
NYJ
|
10.9
|
11.04607
|
|
67
|
Meachem, Robert NO
|
4.7
|
4.431202
|
|
68
|
Nicks, Hakeem NYG
|
7.6
|
5.901601
|
|
69
|
Hunter, Justin TEN
|
4.7
|
4.431202
|
|
70
|
Bowe, Dwayne KC
|
5
|
4.786091
|
|
71
|
Caldwell, Andre DEN
|
4.1
|
3.612325
|
|
72
|
Hankerson, Leonard
WAS
|
8.5
|
8.128277
|
|
73
|
Douglas, Harry ATL
|
4.2
|
4.246829
|
|
74
|
Rice, Sidney SEA
|
8.2
|
8.298326
|
|
75
|
Kearse, Jermaine
SEA
|
4.2
|
4.78818
|
|
76
|
Hilton, T.Y. IND
|
6.2
|
6.488109
|
|
77
|
Avant, Jason PHI
|
6
|
6.454628
|
|
78
|
Wallace, Mike MIA
|
8.1
|
8.796338
|
|
79
|
LaFell, Brandon CAR
|
6.2
|
7.866808
|
|
|
Player
|
Avg
|
Std Dev
|
|
1
|
Gates, Antonio SD
|
9.9
|
3.642649
|
|
2
|
Reed, Jordan WAS
|
5.5
|
1.675974
|
|
3
|
Walker, Delanie TEN
|
5.3
|
1.256981
|
|
4
|
Cameron, Jordan CLE
|
18
|
6.299383
|
|
5
|
Allen, Dwayne IND
|
8
|
3.771236
|
|
6
|
Olsen, Greg CAR
|
8.5
|
4.196295
|
|
7
|
Myers, Brandon NYG
|
7.8
|
3.805552
|
|
8
|
Graham, Jimmy NO
|
22.6
|
8.558427
|
|
9
|
Thomas, Julius DEN
|
15.5
|
7.459371
|
|
10
|
Rudolph, Kyle MIN
|
5.2
|
3.512201
|
|
11
|
Gonzalez, Tony ATL
|
5.1
|
3.203123
|
|
12
|
Daniels, Owen HOU
|
10
|
6.548791
|
|
13
|
Miller, Zach SEA
|
6.3
|
4.459447
|
|
14
|
Graham, Garrett HOU
|
5.9
|
4.173727
|
|
15
|
Finley, Jermichael
GB
|
8
|
5.692295
|
|
16
|
Davis, Vernon SF
|
11.9
|
9.839151
|
|
17
|
Bennett, Martellus
CHI
|
10.5
|
7.598684
|
|
18
|
Clay, Charles MIA
|
9.8
|
7.2351
|
|
19
|
Clark, Dallas BAL
|
4.7
|
3.225937
|
|
20
|
Eifert, Tyler CIN
|
4
|
2.458997
|
|
21
|
Chandler, Scott BUF
|
6.2
|
5.540357
|
|
22
|
Fauria, Joseph DET
|
5.1
|
3.693538
|
|
23
|
Cook, Jared STL
|
10.8
|
11.58572
|
|
24
|
Witten, Jason DAL
|
9
|
7.441475
|
|
25
|
Winslow, Kellen NYJ
|
5.2
|
6.209849
|
|
26
|
Fleener, Coby IND
|
5
|
5.615059
|
|
27
|
Celek, Brent PHI
|
4.5
|
5.097276
|
|
|
Player
|
Avg
|
Std Dev
|
|
1
|
Jets NYJ
|
17
|
2.94392
|
|
2
|
Lions DET
|
13.3
|
1.885618
|
|
3
|
Browns CLE
|
15.3
|
3.399346
|
|
4
|
Buccaneers TB
|
16.7
|
4.988877
|
|
5
|
Colts IND
|
14.3
|
3.681787
|
|
6
|
Seahawks SEA
|
21.7
|
7.408704
|
|
7
|
Saints NO
|
16.3
|
4.784233
|
|
8
|
Cowboys DAL
|
22.3
|
7.586538
|
|
9
|
Titans TEN
|
17.7
|
6.649979
|
|
10
|
Cardinals ARI
|
9.3
|
2.494438
|
|
11
|
Patriots NE
|
16.3
|
6.236096
|
|
12
|
Texans HOU
|
12.7
|
3.399346
|
|
13
|
Broncos DEN
|
13.3
|
4.109609
|
|
14
|
Redskins WAS
|
12
|
3.265986
|
|
15
|
Jaguars JAC
|
8.7
|
2.494438
|
|
16
|
Chiefs KC
|
28
|
10.19804
|
|
17
|
Chargers SD
|
6
|
1.632993
|
|
18
|
Bears CHI
|
18
|
8.640988
|
|
19
|
Panthers CAR
|
24
|
19.20069
|
|
20
|
Ravens BAL
|
19.7
|
8.730534
|
|
21
|
Giants NYG
|
4.7
|
1.885618
|
|
22
|
49ers SF
|
8
|
3.265986
|
|
23
|
Bills BUF
|
13.3
|
5.249339
|
|
24
|
Falcons ATL
|
12
|
4.320494
|
|
25
|
Eagles PHI
|
11.3
|
4.109609
|
|
26
|
Vikings MIN
|
13.3
|
7.363574
|
|
27
|
Steelers PIT
|
7.3
|
3.399346
|
|
28
|
Bengals CIN
|
14.3
|
7.586538
|
|
29
|
Raiders OAK
|
13
|
6.164414
|
|
30
|
Dolphins MIA
|
15
|
8.831761
|
|
31
|
Rams STL
|
7.3
|
4.714045
|
|
32
|
Packers GB
|
12
|
8.640988
|
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