Hello and welcome to Market Fantasy!
We’ve just rounded the quarter pole of the 2014 NFL season,
and I wanted to take a look at some of the pre-season analysis and apply it to
what we’ve seen in the NFL so far this year. Today, I want to look at the
touchdown percentages of players. The idea in a nutshell is that for a lot of
players, touchdowns are random and can help a lot of surprising starts. This
can apply both to the good and bad side of the ledger. The general idea is to
dig a little deeper into a players’ year to date score and find out how
sustainable it is based on how much of an influence touchdowns play in their
numbers. Players like Julius Thomas or Brandon Marshall have a large part of
their scores dependent on TDs, but they are also sustainable in that their QBs
lock in on them in the red zone. Where it gets a little sketchy are the players
like Matt Asiata or Eddie Royal who have inflated numbers due to one or two
multi touchdown games. This makes them an ideal sell high if an owner is only
looking at the bottom line numbers. Take a look at the numbers, and look for players with higher scores, but low TD%. These should provide the most consistent value as their scores are mostly yardage dependent. Also, pay attention to the players with no
touchdowns (o%). There are some good names on this list whose owners might be
frustrated with a lack of scores this year. Shoot them a lowball offer if you
can.
RB:
Look at what a beast DeMarco Murray has been. He has 5 TD
already, and those only make up for 35% of his points. Incredible. I read a lot
of frustrations about Alfred Morris, and this probably illustrates some of
those frustrations. He seems to get overshadowed at the goal line, but is still
getting his points through yardage and is a great RB2. Rashad Jennings is
another guy who is the same way. He’ll be fine and would be a prime trade
target. Take a look at the last couple names. Forte will score his and would be
a top trade target if I could get him. He gives you a great floor with all the
yards he racks up. Ellington, LeVeon Bell and Fred Jackson are other names that
could really pick up the scoring with a couple TDs.
WR:
Brandon Marshall has had a couple of down games due to
injury, but I wouldn’t read too much into his inflated number. Cutler throws to
him all the time. Take a look at the bottom of this list at all the 0% guys.
That’s where the meat of this list is. Andre Johnson, Golden Tate, Keenan
Allen, Markus Wheaton, Michael Floyd. I’d try to get all those guys on the
cheap if I could. They’re all bound to start scoring soon. If nothing else,
they will get yards and provide a nice WR2/Flex floor.
TE:
Not a lot to discuss here. Ertz has been a disappointment
with that whole team. Bennett has been a freak, but I don’t know if he can keep
it up. If you can get top three TE value for him, I’d sell. Dwayne Allen is
higher up there, but I’d buy him if you need a TE. Same with Heath Miller.
There’s a lot of history with him and Big Ben, so I think he’s going to
continue to break out.
As always, thanks for reading and let me know what you think
in the comments!
RB:
|
Player
|
Rush TD
|
ReceivingTD
|
MF Pts
|
TD Points
|
TD Pts As a Percent of Total Points
|
|
Darrel Young WAS
|
1
|
2
|
22.4
|
18
|
80.36%
|
|
Carlos Hyde SF
|
2
|
0
|
21.2
|
12
|
56.60%
|
|
Isaiah Crowell CLE
|
3
|
0
|
32.4
|
18
|
55.56%
|
|
Jamaal Charles KC
|
1
|
2
|
33.4
|
18
|
53.89%
|
|
Mark Ingram NO
|
3
|
0
|
34.5
|
18
|
52.17%
|
|
Antone Smith ATL
|
2
|
1
|
35.2
|
18
|
51.14%
|
|
Marshawn Lynch SEA
|
3
|
2
|
61.5
|
30
|
48.78%
|
|
Matt Asiata MIN
|
3
|
1
|
51
|
24
|
47.06%
|
|
Lorenzo Taliaferro BAL
|
2
|
0
|
26.9
|
12
|
44.61%
|
|
Jeremy Hill CIN
|
2
|
0
|
27.4
|
12
|
43.80%
|
|
LeGarrette Blount PIT
|
2
|
0
|
27.7
|
12
|
43.32%
|
|
Ahmad Bradshaw IND
|
0
|
4
|
55.6
|
24
|
43.17%
|
|
Lamar Miller MIA
|
2
|
1
|
47
|
18
|
38.30%
|
|
Chris Johnson NYJ
|
1
|
1
|
32.7
|
12
|
36.70%
|
|
DeMarco Murray DAL
|
5
|
0
|
84.2
|
30
|
35.63%
|
|
Giovani Bernard CIN
|
3
|
0
|
51.3
|
18
|
35.09%
|
|
Knile Davis KC
|
3
|
0
|
52.2
|
18
|
34.48%
|
|
Alfred Morris WAS
|
3
|
0
|
52.3
|
18
|
34.42%
|
|
Terrance West CLE
|
2
|
0
|
35.1
|
12
|
34.19%
|
|
Knowshon Moreno MIA
|
1
|
0
|
19.8
|
6
|
30.30%
|
|
Jonathan Stewart CAR
|
1
|
0
|
20.6
|
6
|
29.13%
|
|
Darren Sproles PHI
|
2
|
0
|
41.9
|
12
|
28.64%
|
|
Shonn Greene TEN
|
1
|
0
|
21.4
|
6
|
28.04%
|
|
Bishop Sankey TEN
|
1
|
0
|
21.5
|
6
|
27.91%
|
|
Toby Gerhart JAC
|
1
|
0
|
21.7
|
6
|
27.65%
|
|
Justin Forsett BAL
|
2
|
0
|
43.8
|
12
|
27.40%
|
|
Frank Gore SF
|
1
|
1
|
44.5
|
12
|
26.97%
|
|
Chris Ivory NYJ
|
2
|
0
|
46.4
|
12
|
25.86%
|
|
Eddie Lacy GB
|
1
|
0
|
25
|
6
|
24.00%
|
|
Pierre Thomas NO
|
1
|
0
|
25.5
|
6
|
23.53%
|
|
Montee Ball DEN
|
1
|
0
|
25.6
|
6
|
23.44%
|
|
Joique Bell DET
|
1
|
0
|
26.5
|
6
|
22.64%
|
|
Rashad Jennings NYG
|
2
|
0
|
53.3
|
12
|
22.51%
|
|
Khiry Robinson NO
|
1
|
0
|
27.3
|
6
|
21.98%
|
|
Shane Vereen NE
|
1
|
0
|
27.5
|
6
|
21.82%
|
|
Stevan Ridley NE
|
1
|
0
|
27.8
|
6
|
21.58%
|
|
Steven Jackson ATL
|
1
|
0
|
28.1
|
6
|
21.35%
|
|
Zac Stacy STL
|
1
|
0
|
28.3
|
6
|
21.20%
|
|
Darren McFadden OAK
|
1
|
0
|
28.6
|
6
|
20.98%
|
|
Roy Helu WAS
|
1
|
0
|
29.9
|
6
|
20.07%
|
|
LeSean McCoy PHI
|
1
|
0
|
31.6
|
6
|
18.99%
|
|
Bobby Rainey TB
|
0
|
1
|
31.7
|
6
|
18.93%
|
|
Reggie Bush DET
|
1
|
0
|
32
|
6
|
18.75%
|
|
C.J. Spiller BUF
|
0
|
1
|
34.8
|
6
|
17.24%
|
|
Trent Richardson IND
|
1
|
0
|
36.5
|
6
|
16.44%
|
|
Arian Foster HOU
|
1
|
0
|
37.1
|
6
|
16.17%
|
|
Fred Jackson BUF
|
0
|
1
|
38.2
|
6
|
15.71%
|
|
Le'Veon Bell PIT
|
1
|
0
|
63
|
6
|
9.52%
|
|
Matt Forte CHI
|
0
|
0
|
45.2
|
0
|
0.00%
|
|
Andre Ellington ARI
|
0
|
0
|
23.6
|
0
|
0.00%
|
|
Jerick McKinnon MIN
|
0
|
0
|
17.3
|
0
|
0.00%
|
WR:
|
Player
|
Rushing TD
|
Receiving TD
|
MF Pts
|
TD Points
|
TD Pts As a Percent of Total Points
|
|
Brandon Marshall CHI
|
0
|
5
|
42.4
|
30
|
70.75%
|
|
John Brown ARI
|
0
|
3
|
29.1
|
18
|
61.86%
|
|
Ricardo Lockette SEA
|
0
|
2
|
19.9
|
12
|
60.30%
|
|
Terrance Williams DAL
|
0
|
4
|
41.9
|
24
|
57.28%
|
|
Hakeem Nicks IND
|
0
|
2
|
21.4
|
12
|
56.07%
|
|
Randall Cobb GB
|
0
|
5
|
54.5
|
30
|
55.05%
|
|
Miles Austin CLE
|
0
|
2
|
23.5
|
12
|
51.06%
|
|
Eddie Royal SD
|
0
|
4
|
47.5
|
24
|
50.53%
|
|
Vincent Jackson TB
|
0
|
2
|
25.4
|
12
|
47.24%
|
|
Jordan Matthews PHI
|
0
|
2
|
26.1
|
12
|
45.98%
|
|
Austin Pettis STL
|
0
|
1
|
13.4
|
6
|
44.78%
|
|
Travis Benjamin CLE
|
0
|
1
|
13.7
|
6
|
43.80%
|
|
Damaris Johnson HOU
|
0
|
1
|
13.9
|
6
|
43.17%
|
|
Mike Wallace MIA
|
0
|
3
|
41.8
|
18
|
43.06%
|
|
Jeremy Ross DET
|
0
|
1
|
14.3
|
6
|
41.96%
|
|
Rod Streater OAK
|
0
|
1
|
14.4
|
6
|
41.67%
|
|
Allen Hurns JAC
|
0
|
3
|
43.4
|
18
|
41.47%
|
|
Antonio Brown PIT
|
0
|
5
|
73.7
|
30
|
40.71%
|
|
Jason Avant CAR
|
0
|
1
|
15
|
6
|
40.00%
|
|
Roddy White ATL
|
0
|
2
|
30.7
|
12
|
39.09%
|
|
Malcom Floyd SD
|
0
|
2
|
30.7
|
12
|
39.09%
|
|
Dez Bryant DAL
|
0
|
3
|
47.1
|
18
|
38.22%
|
|
DeAndre Hopkins HOU
|
0
|
3
|
47.1
|
18
|
38.22%
|
|
Sammy Watkins BUF
|
0
|
2
|
31.7
|
12
|
37.85%
|
|
Eric Decker NYJ
|
0
|
2
|
32.4
|
12
|
37.04%
|
|
Devin Hester ATL
|
1
|
1
|
33.6
|
12
|
35.71%
|
|
Kelvin Benjamin CAR
|
0
|
3
|
50.9
|
18
|
35.36%
|
|
Michael Crabtree SF
|
0
|
2
|
35.4
|
12
|
33.90%
|
|
Jeremy Maclin PHI
|
0
|
3
|
53.3
|
18
|
33.77%
|
|
Harry Douglas ATL
|
0
|
1
|
18.1
|
6
|
33.15%
|
|
James Jones OAK
|
0
|
2
|
37.2
|
12
|
32.26%
|
|
Mike Williams BUF
|
0
|
1
|
19.4
|
6
|
30.93%
|
|
Torrey Smith BAL
|
0
|
1
|
19.8
|
6
|
30.30%
|
|
Demaryius Thomas DEN
|
0
|
1
|
20.1
|
6
|
29.85%
|
|
Julio Jones ATL
|
0
|
3
|
60.7
|
18
|
29.65%
|
|
Steve Smith BAL
|
0
|
3
|
60.9
|
18
|
29.56%
|
|
Andre Holmes OAK
|
0
|
1
|
20.8
|
6
|
28.85%
|
|
Jordy Nelson GB
|
0
|
3
|
63.9
|
18
|
28.17%
|
|
Kendall Wright TEN
|
0
|
1
|
21.6
|
6
|
27.78%
|
|
Rueben Randle NYG
|
0
|
1
|
21.6
|
6
|
27.78%
|
|
Andre Roberts WAS
|
0
|
1
|
21.6
|
6
|
27.78%
|
|
Brian Hartline MIA
|
0
|
1
|
22.1
|
6
|
27.15%
|
|
Marques Colston NO
|
0
|
1
|
22.5
|
6
|
26.67%
|
|
Brandon LaFell NE
|
0
|
1
|
22.5
|
6
|
26.67%
|
|
Mohamed Sanu CIN
|
0
|
1
|
22.8
|
6
|
26.32%
|
|
Calvin Johnson DET
|
0
|
2
|
46.1
|
12
|
26.03%
|
|
Percy Harvin SEA
|
1
|
0
|
23.2
|
6
|
25.86%
|
|
Steve Johnson SF
|
0
|
1
|
23.4
|
6
|
25.64%
|
|
Jeremy Kerley NYJ
|
0
|
1
|
24.1
|
6
|
24.90%
|
|
DeSean Jackson WAS
|
0
|
1
|
25.8
|
6
|
23.26%
|
|
Mike Evans TB
|
0
|
1
|
26.3
|
6
|
22.81%
|
|
Greg Jennings MIN
|
0
|
1
|
26.4
|
6
|
22.73%
|
|
Brian Quick STL
|
0
|
1
|
29.5
|
6
|
20.34%
|
|
A.J. Green CIN
|
0
|
1
|
29.8
|
6
|
20.13%
|
|
Brandin Cooks NO
|
0
|
1
|
30.8
|
6
|
19.48%
|
|
Pierre Garcon WAS
|
0
|
1
|
31.5
|
6
|
19.05%
|
|
Cordarrelle Patterson MIN
|
1
|
0
|
33.6
|
6
|
17.86%
|
|
Alshon Jeffery CHI
|
0
|
1
|
34.7
|
6
|
17.29%
|
|
Victor Cruz NYG
|
0
|
1
|
35.9
|
6
|
16.71%
|
|
Reggie Wayne IND
|
0
|
1
|
36.7
|
6
|
16.35%
|
|
Julian Edelman NE
|
0
|
1
|
37.8
|
6
|
15.87%
|
|
Emmanuel Sanders DEN
|
0
|
0
|
34.3
|
0
|
0.00%
|
|
Golden Tate DET
|
0
|
0
|
32.1
|
0
|
0.00%
|
|
T.Y. Hilton IND
|
0
|
0
|
29.6
|
0
|
0.00%
|
|
Michael Floyd ARI
|
0
|
0
|
25.4
|
0
|
0.00%
|
|
Keenan Allen SD
|
0
|
0
|
24.4
|
0
|
0.00%
|
|
Markus Wheaton PIT
|
0
|
0
|
24.2
|
0
|
0.00%
|
|
Andrew Hawkins CLE
|
0
|
0
|
24.4
|
0
|
0.00%
|
|
Andre Johnson HOU
|
0
|
0
|
24.2
|
0
|
0.00%
|
|
Anquan Boldin SF
|
0
|
0
|
23.1
|
0
|
0.00%
|
|
Jarius Wright MIN
|
0
|
0
|
16.4
|
0
|
0.00%
|
|
Allen Robinson JAC
|
0
|
0
|
19.2
|
0
|
0.00%
|
|
Jerricho Cotchery CAR
|
0
|
0
|
15.8
|
0
|
0.00%
|
|
Donnie Avery KC
|
0
|
0
|
15.6
|
0
|
0.00%
|
|
Dwayne Bowe KC
|
0
|
0
|
15.3
|
0
|
0.00%
|
|
Justin Hunter TEN
|
0
|
0
|
13.8
|
0
|
0.00%
|
|
Greg Salas NYJ
|
0
|
0
|
12.8
|
0
|
0.00%
|
|
Kenny Stills NO
|
0
|
0
|
12.5
|
0
|
0.00%
|
TE:
|
Player
|
Rushing TD
|
Receiving TD
|
MF Pts
|
TD Points
|
TD Pts As a Percent of Total Points
|
|
Daniel Fells NYG
|
0
|
3
|
21.8
|
18
|
82.57%
|
|
Josh Hill NO
|
0
|
2
|
17.9
|
12
|
67.04%
|
|
Julius Thomas DEN
|
0
|
5
|
46
|
30
|
65.22%
|
|
Vernon Davis SF
|
0
|
2
|
21.1
|
12
|
56.87%
|
|
Dwayne Allen IND
|
0
|
3
|
32.5
|
18
|
55.38%
|
|
Rob Gronkowski NE
|
0
|
3
|
32.7
|
18
|
55.05%
|
|
Larry Donnell NYG
|
0
|
4
|
45.6
|
24
|
52.63%
|
|
Coby Fleener IND
|
0
|
2
|
22.9
|
12
|
52.40%
|
|
Owen Daniels BAL
|
0
|
2
|
23.3
|
12
|
51.50%
|
|
Antonio Gates SD
|
0
|
3
|
39.5
|
18
|
45.57%
|
|
Martellus Bennett CHI
|
0
|
4
|
53.5
|
24
|
44.86%
|
|
Kyle Rudolph MIN
|
0
|
1
|
15.6
|
6
|
38.46%
|
|
Delanie Walker TEN
|
0
|
3
|
49.7
|
18
|
36.22%
|
|
Marcedes Lewis JAC
|
0
|
1
|
16.6
|
6
|
36.14%
|
|
Jimmy Graham NO
|
0
|
3
|
50
|
18
|
36.00%
|
|
Greg Olsen CAR
|
0
|
2
|
37.4
|
12
|
32.09%
|
|
Travis Kelce KC
|
0
|
2
|
37.9
|
12
|
31.66%
|
|
Heath Miller PIT
|
0
|
1
|
23.7
|
6
|
25.32%
|
|
Zach Ertz PHI
|
0
|
1
|
26
|
6
|
23.08%
|
|
Niles Paul WAS
|
0
|
1
|
35.3
|
6
|
17.00%
|
|
Jared Cook STL
|
0
|
0
|
17.7
|
0
|
0.00%
|
|
Jason Witten DAL
|
0
|
0
|
15.6
|
0
|
0.00%
|
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