Saturday, October 25, 2014

Week 8 Consistency Ratings

Hello and Welcome to Market Fantasy!
Below are the Market Fantasy consistency rankings. When I first started doing this last year, I rushed to get them out on Tuesday night to combine them with a free agent pickup column. I’ve decided to stop rushing out the free agent column. Partly because there are a billion sites all telling you to pick up the same guys, so you don’t need me to also tell you to pick up an injured RBs backup. Hopefully, you’ve figured that out on your own. I’m not trying for content just for content’s sake. Also, if there are any free agent picks you find in here, you don’t have to waste a waiver claim on them Tuesday night when the majority of claims are processed. These guys you can pick up Wednesday as free agents and save those high claims for the in demand players everyone else is telling you about that you can probably figure out on your own. I’ll just make some quick observations about each position. Good?
Before we get started, let me give you the quick explanation of these rankings. They are based on a combination of a player’s average weekly scoring and the standard deviation of those scores. The idea is to find the players who not only average the highest points on a per week basis, but also deviate the least from that average. These are not meant to be rest of season or even weekly ranks, just an idea of how a player has performed thus far in the season. Ryan Mathews tops Le’Veon Bell in these rankings, but don’t trade Bell for Mathews, ok? 
Like my post earlier on ceilings and floors, these ranks are meant to give you an idea of what to expect from a player. If a player has a high average score and a high standard deviation, they are not very consistent and their point average has been influenced by a huge game and the rest pedestrian games. The average score and standard deviations have been provided for each player, so use them to make your own decisions about your team and identify players to either unload or trade for.
I’ve also added the expected floors and ceilings. Remember from my Six Sigma drafting piece, following the standard distribution, a player will achieve over one standard deviation below their average 84% of the time, and will fall under one standard deviation above their average 84% of the time. These will change some on a weekly basis as the average and standard deviations move week to week, but as of now, the numbers below are what we can expect from a certain player.
As always, love to hear comments. Thanks for reading!
Inane Comments:
QB: 
It’s crazy, but look at the player with the highest expected ceiling. Russell Wilson tops out at 40 points. A lot of that comes from last week, but outside his week 6 dud, he’s been awesome. He won’t miss the terribly overrated Percy Harvin one bit…. I keep saying this, but Kyle Orton continues to look like a solid bye week replacement. Nothing flashy, but a high floor….. When are the Texans going to give Ryan Mallett a shot? Ryan Fitzpatrick’s ceiling is barely a passable average for a QB…. What are your thoughts on Ryan Tannehill? He’s probably not a fantasy starter yet, but he showed he can get it done through the air and ground last week against a Chicago team that had absolutely no answer for the read option. He’s a player to target in dynasty formats for sure…. 

RB:
Lamar Miller and Justin Forsett both look like top 12 options going forward. Who would’ve thought?.... Something wrong with Marshawn Lynch? He’s been pedestrian lately. I expect him to be fine, but the surprisingly bad Seattle is definitely forcing the Seahawks to lean on Wilson a lot more than Lynch…. Roy Helu is high on the list for his small standard deviation, but I would keep him in mind. Alfred Morris is slipping and Jay Gruden loves to throw despite terrible QBs. This clearly helps Helu as Morris doesn’t play passing downs….. Shane Vereen was great last week, but he is going to continue to be very inconsistent even with Steven Ridley gone. You just never know what the Patriots will do. I can’t see him getting all the red zone targets he got last week continually….. Don’t look now, but Bernard Pierce is showing life. I know it’s all touchdown dependent, but it’s still worth noting. He is the clear #2 there and could be a desperation play with his TD vulturing ways…. If he’s out there still, I would roster Bobby Rainey. Doug Martin just isn’t that good. Regardless of it’s health or not, the reality is that Rainey is better now.

WR:
The ceilings and floors show you what a variable position WR is for fantasy purposes. Those are huge gaps between the ceiling and floor for a lot of players. A lot of the prevailing thought in fantasy now is that WRs are the big scorers with the league going so pass heavy. I think it’s important to get a stud WR early, but there’s no way I’m not getting an expected bell cow RB early as well. Maybe I’m being stubborn, but with such a wide range of expected outcomes, and so many factors going into WR performance, I still want the relative safety net of a player with a near guarantee of 15+ touches per game. Sure, there have been busts at the RB position, but no one saw the Adrian Peterson thing coming. I refuse to count that. As for performance? There are just as many performance issues among top WRs as RBs. For every Shady McCoy or Reggie Bush killing you, there’s a Julio Jones or Keenan Allen. I get the zero RB (where you wait until at least the fifth round to draft an RB) strategy, but if your lottery tickets don’t cash, it’s an awful lot harder to find RB help on the waiver wire, where the competition is fierce, than it is WR help.

TE:
Is there such a thing as  a zero TE strategy? Look at some of the per game average leaders. Olsen, Allen, Bennett, Gates. When were you able to get them? The 7th or later probably. The only guy giving you value for a high pick is Julius Thomas. Last night showed what happens if he doesn’t score, though. He just doesn’t get the yards to be truly safe. The incredibly low floors of most TEs show how much of a crapshoot this position truly is after the top five or so guys….. Dwayne Allen is my new Greg Olsen. Please add and play him. It’s that simple…. Too bad Delanie Walker is looking like he’s getting kneecapped again by terrible QB play. It would be great to see what he can do with a full year of competent QB play….. Remember when Larry Donnell was a star in the making? So glad I didn’t make any of the trades I thought about for him. 
Rank
Player
Avg
Std Dev
Floor
Ceiling
1
Drew Brees NO 
23.8
3.06
20.78
26.89
2
Carson Palmer ARI 
23.4
3.41
19.99
26.81
3
Andrew Luck IND 
32.7
6.73
26.01
39.47
4
Kyle Orton BUF 
20.2
1.27
18.93
21.47
5
Peyton Manning DEN 
32.5
6.83
25.67
39.33
6
Jay Cutler CHI 
23.2
6.73
16.46
29.91
7
Ryan Tannehill MIA 
20.4
5.01
15.34
25.36
8
Mike Glennon TB 
20.9
5.19
15.66
26.04
9
Tony Romo DAL 
21.2
6.78
14.44
27.99
10
Philip Rivers SD 
26.5
7.64
18.88
34.15
11
EJ Manuel BUF
17.2
1.53
15.65
18.70
12
Colin Kaepernick SF 
21.7
7.62
14.04
29.27
13
Alex Smith KC 
18.1
6.68
11.40
24.77
14
Aaron Rodgers GB 
26.9
10.49
16.38
37.36
15
Charlie Whitehurst TEN 
15.4
3.86
11.57
19.28
16
Jake Locker TEN 
15.8
5.96
9.86
21.79
17
Matt Ryan ATL 
22.6
10.09
12.52
32.71
18
Ryan Fitzpatrick HOU 
15.4
5.44
9.91
20.80
19
Cam Newton CAR 
21.2
9.22
11.93
30.37
20
Russell Wilson SEA 
28.2
12.43
15.72
40.58
21
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 
18.7
7.36
11.30
26.02
22
Brian Hoyer CLE 
15.7
6.79
8.89
22.47
23
Andy Dalton CIN 
17.7
7.18
10.50
24.86
24
Joe Flacco BAL 
22.8
11.94
10.83
34.71
25
Nick Foles PHI
19.9
9.20
10.70
29.10
26
Blake Bortles JAC 
14.8
6.82
7.94
21.58
27
Eli Manning NYG 
21.1
11.51
9.62
32.64
28
Matthew Stafford DET 
19.4
10.18
9.26
29.62
29
Geno Smith NYJ 
14.5
6.86
7.63
21.34
30
Tom Brady NE 
20.2
11.31
8.86
31.48
31
Austin Davis STL 
18.6
10.64
7.99
29.27
32
Chad Henne JAC
12.0
8.26
3.77
20.30
33
Derek Carr OAK 
15.4
9.50
5.93
24.94
34
Kirk Cousins WAS 
19.4
12.02
7.41
31.45
35
Josh McCown TB 
12.0
8.30
3.74
20.33
36
Teddy Bridgewater MIN 
11.7
8.88
2.80
20.55


Rank
Player
Avg
Std Dev
Floor
Ceiling
1
DeMarco Murray DAL 
23.5
3.50
19.96
26.96
2
Lamar Miller MIA 
12.9
3.80
9.14
16.73
3
Justin Forsett BAL 
11.9
3.72
8.15
15.59
4
Ahmad Bradshaw IND 
13.3
5.01
8.25
18.27
5
Ryan Mathews SD 
8.85
3.15
5.70
12.00
6
Trent Richardson IND 
9.01
3.66
5.36
12.67
7
Le'Veon Bell PIT 
16
6.45
9.53
22.42
8
Tre Mason STL 
9.85
4.65
5.20
14.50
9
Darren McFadden OAK 
8.12
3.49
4.62
11.61
10
Fred Jackson BUF 
9.14
4.46
4.69
13.60
11
Zac Stacy STL 
7.5
3.45
4.05
10.95
12
Joique Bell DET 
9.15
4.57
4.58
13.72
13
Jonathan Stewart CAR 
6.7
3.13
3.57
9.83
14
Storm Johnson JAC 
6.13
2.44
3.70
8.57
15
Roy Helu WAS
6.47
2.73
3.74
9.21
16
Mark Ingram NO 
12.5
6.80
5.67
19.27
17
DeAngelo Williams CAR 
5.3
1.90
3.40
7.20
18
Matt Forte CHI 
17.5
8.18
9.30
25.67
19
Antone Smith ATL 
9.09
5.07
4.02
14.15
20
Marshawn Lynch SEA 
15.9
8.16
7.76
24.07
21
Alfred Morris WAS 
9.44
5.74
3.70
15.19
22
Chris Ivory NYJ 
11.1
6.58
4.47
17.64
23
Benny Cunningham STL 
7.28
4.08
3.20
11.36
24
Andre Ellington ARI 
13.1
7.95
5.10
21.00
25
Giovani Bernard CIN 
14.2
8.28
5.87
22.43
26
Daniel Thomas MIA 
4.87
0.98
3.88
5.85
27
Donald Brown SD 
5.1
2.39
2.71
7.49
28
De'Anthony Thomas KC
5.15
2.55
2.60
7.70
29
Arian Foster HOU 
20.8
9.49
11.32
30.31
30
Toby Gerhart JAC 
4.92
2.30
2.62
7.22
31
Steven Jackson ATL 
6.64
3.90
2.74
10.55
32
Jeremy Hill CIN 
7.55
4.88
2.67
12.43
33
Ben Tate CLE 
10.7
7.05
3.67
17.78
34
Juwan Thompson DEN 
4.77
1.96
2.81
6.73
35
Doug Martin TB 
6.35
3.66
2.69
10.01
36
C.J. Spiller BUF 
7.09
4.54
2.55
11.62
37
LeSean McCoy PHI 
9.43
6.46
2.97
15.90
38
Isaiah Crowell CLE 
8.05
5.05
3.00
13.10
39
Rashad Jennings NYG 
13.2
8.45
4.71
21.61
40
Shonn Greene TEN 
5
2.89
2.11
7.89
41
Terrance West CLE 
8.4
5.54
2.86
13.94
42
Ronnie Hillman DEN 
11.1
8.12
2.93
19.17
43
Reggie Bush DET 
6.58
4.38
2.21
10.96
44
Bishop Sankey TEN 
5.23
3.50
1.73
8.73
45
Branden Oliver SD 
13.8
11.82
2.00
25.64
46
Bernard Pierce BAL 
6.06
4.05
2.01
10.11
47
Bobby Rainey TB
8.18
6.02
2.16
14.20
48
Khiry Robinson NO 
7.27
5.27
2.00
12.54
49
Darren Sproles PHI 
11.3
8.64
2.68
19.96
50
Montee Ball DEN 
6.85
5.12
1.73
11.97
51
Carlos Hyde SF 
4.21
3.44
0.77
7.66
52
Eddie Lacy GB 
10.1
8.31
1.76
18.38
53
Jamaal Charles KC 
11.7
10.07
1.63
21.77
54
Shane Vereen NE 
8.91
7.12
1.80
16.03
55
Stevan Ridley NE 
9
7.66
1.34
16.66
56
Frank Gore SF 
9.59
8.36
1.22
17.95
57
Andre Williams NYG 
6.07
4.98
1.09
11.05
58
Knile Davis KC 
10.4
9.14
1.26
19.54
59
Lorenzo Taliaferro BAL 
6.74
5.75
0.99
12.49
60
Pierre Thomas NO 
8.62
7.30
1.32
15.92
61
Jerick McKinnon MIN 
6.64
6.44
0.21
13.08
62
Chris Johnson NYJ 
6.03
5.36
0.67
11.39
63
Matt Asiata MIN 
8.81
8.82
0.00
17.63
64
LeGarrette Blount PIT 
5.67
6.43
-0.76
12.10
65
Stepfan Taylor ARI 
5.66
6.86
-1.20
12.52
66
Denard Robinson JAC 
4.99
6.91
-1.93
11.90


Rank
Player
Avg
Std Dev
Floor
Ceiling
1
Mike Wallace MIA 
10.9
1.44
9.48
12.36
2
Louis Murphy TB
10.9
1.66
9.21
12.52
3
A.J. Green CIN 
16
4.71
11.25
20.68
4
Emmanuel Sanders DEN 
11.4
4.48
6.90
15.86
5
Marques Colston NO 
9.18
3.42
5.76
12.60
6
Malcom Floyd SD 
10.4
4.46
5.90
14.83
7
Dez Bryant DAL 
13
5.40
7.60
18.40
8
Eric Decker NYJ 
8.38
3.58
4.80
11.96
9
Mohamed Sanu CIN 
12.2
5.50
6.65
17.65
10
Allen Robinson JAC 
7.18
2.57
4.61
9.76
11
Andre Johnson HOU 
7.37
3.36
4.02
10.73
12
Andrew Hawkins CLE 
8.4
3.98
4.42
12.38
13
DeAndre Hopkins HOU 
9.91
4.61
5.31
14.52
14
Mike Evans TB
7.56
3.67
3.89
11.23
15
Antonio Brown PIT 
17
6.54
10.42
23.50
16
Julian Edelman NE 
8.09
4.27
3.81
12.36
17
Terrance Williams DAL 
9.97
5.12
4.86
15.09
18
Kelvin Benjamin CAR 
11.2
5.87
5.37
17.11
19
Anquan Boldin SF 
7.24
3.92
3.32
11.17
20
Steve Johnson SF 
7.5
4.17
3.33
11.67
21
Vincent Jackson TB 
8.23
4.46
3.77
12.70
22
Percy Harvin NYJ 
6.65
2.89
3.76
9.54
23
James Jones OAK 
9.22
4.90
4.32
14.12
24
Randall Cobb GB 
14.6
7.33
7.26
21.92
25
Alshon Jeffery CHI 
10.1
5.60
4.53
15.73
26
Brice Butler OAK 
6.97
3.98
2.99
10.94
27
Dwayne Bowe KC 
5.58
2.21
3.37
7.79
28
Rueben Randle NYG 
6.3
3.41
2.89
9.71
29
Jordy Nelson GB 
17.2
9.24
7.93
26.41
30
Odell Beckham NYG 
9.97
5.68
4.28
15.65
31
Jeremy Maclin PHI
12.3
7.89
4.36
20.14
32
Miles Austin CLE 
6.18
3.46
2.73
9.64
33
Golden Tate DET 
12.6
8.19
4.42
20.81
34
Julio Jones ATL 
13.5
8.62
4.90
22.15
35
Steve Smith BAL 
14
8.98
5.02
22.98
36
Demaryius Thomas DEN 
19.9
14.03
5.84
33.90
37
Jerricho Cotchery CAR 
5.05
2.00
3.05
7.05
38
Brian Hartline MIA 
5.12
2.36
2.76
7.48
39
Greg Jennings MIN 
5.79
3.50
2.29
9.28
40
Wes Welker DEN 
5.9
3.61
2.29
9.51
41
Michael Floyd ARI 
8.92
5.65
3.27
14.56
42
Brandin Cooks NO 
6.7
4.36
2.34
11.06
43
Davante Adams GB 
5.13
2.79
2.34
7.92
44
T.Y. Hilton IND 
12.9
9.72
3.22
22.66
45
Andre Roberts WAS
5.11
2.74
2.37
7.86
46
Roddy White ATL 
9.38
6.11
3.27
15.50
47
Brandon LaFell NE 
10.9
8.54
2.40
19.48
48
Markus Wheaton PIT 
4.98
2.57
2.41
7.55
49
Chris Hogan BUF 
6.73
4.62
2.11
11.35
50
Brian Quick STL 
9.08
6.42
2.67
15.50
51
DeSean Jackson WAS 
11.8
9.87
1.89
21.63
52
Cecil Shorts JAC 
6.13
4.35
1.78
10.47
53
Michael Crabtree SF 
7.23
5.30
1.93
12.53
54
Sammy Watkins BUF 
10.5
9.09
1.38
19.56
55
Torrey Smith BAL 
7.83
5.81
2.01
13.64
56
Brandon Marshall CHI 
9.41
6.89
2.52
16.30
57
Kenny Britt STL 
5.42
4.27
1.15
9.69
58
Eddie Royal SD 
9.64
8.04
1.61
17.68
59
Hakeem Nicks IND 
5.3
4.14
1.16
9.44
60
Brandon Lloyd SF 
6.24
4.62
1.62
10.86
61
Andre Holmes OAK 
10.3
9.25
1.01
19.51
62
Calvin Johnson DET 
10.4
11.97
-1.61
22.33
63
Reggie Wayne IND 
7.49
6.10
1.38
13.59
64
Pierre Garcon WAS 
8.66
7.25
1.41
15.91
65
Kendall Wright TEN 
8
6.66
1.34
14.66
66
Travis Benjamin CLE
6.82
5.68
1.14
12.50
67
John Brown ARI 
6.32
5.48
0.84
11.80
68
Victor Cruz NYG 
7.62
6.83
0.79
14.44
69
Jarvis Landry MIA 
5.04
4.33
0.71
9.37
70
Keenan Allen SD 
5.49
4.71
0.77
10.20
71
Justin Hunter TEN 
5.43
4.90
0.53
10.32
72
Devin Hester ATL 
6.66
5.93
0.73
12.58
73
Larry Fitzgerald ARI 
5.38
4.92
0.46
10.31
74
Jarius Wright MIN 
5.4
5.05
0.35
10.45
75
Cordarrelle Patterson MIN 
6.71
6.53
0.19
13.24
76
Jordan Matthews PHI
5.77
5.52
0.25
11.28
77
Kenny Stills NO 
6.68
6.50
0.18
13.18
78
Allen Hurns JAC 
7.36
8.51
-1.15
15.87
79
Doug Baldwin SEA 
6.67
6.68
-0.01
13.35



Rank
Player
Avg
Std Dev
Floor
Ceiling
1
Dwayne Allen IND 
10.1
2.48
7.60
12.56
2
Jared Cook STL 
5.33
1.75
3.58
7.09
3
Travis Kelce KC 
8.12
3.82
4.29
11.94
4
Jacob Tamme DEN
5.43
2.74
2.69
8.17
5
Rob Gronkowski NE 
9.7
4.44
5.26
14.14
6
Greg Olsen CAR 
11.8
4.84
6.92
16.60
7
Daniel Fells NYG 
5.42
3.02
2.39
8.44
8
Coby Fleener IND 
5.63
3.33
2.30
8.96
9
Josh Hill NO 
6.03
3.61
2.42
9.63
10
Jason Witten DAL 
4.66
2.21
2.44
6.87
11
Zach Ertz PHI 
6.77
4.54
2.22
11.31
12
Martellus Bennett CHI 
10.2
5.33
4.84
15.50
13
Owen Daniels BAL 
6.5
4.69
1.81
11.19
14
Anthony Fasano KC
4.58
2.56
2.01
7.14
15
Lance Kendricks STL 
5.12
3.19
1.92
8.31
16
James Casey PHI
5.25
3.35
1.90
8.60
17
Niles Paul WAS
6.06
4.72
1.33
10.78
18
Clay Harbor JAC 
6.93
5.04
1.89
11.96
19
Jimmy Graham NO 
11.3
8.31
3.01
19.63
20
Julius Thomas DEN 
14.6
9.27
5.29
23.84
21
Delanie Walker TEN 
9.26
6.83
2.43
16.09
22
Antonio Gates SD 
11.2
8.51
2.67
19.70
23
Jordan Reed WAS 
5
3.60
1.40
8.60
24
Larry Donnell NYG 
8.53
7.55
0.98
16.09
25
Cooper Helfet SEA 
5.47
4.84
0.63
10.30
26
Timothy Wright NE 
6.03
5.21
0.82
11.23
27
Eric Ebron DET 
4.08
3.25
0.82
7.33
28
Charles Clay MIA 
4.4
3.34
1.06
7.74
29
Scott Chandler BUF 
5.13
4.20
0.93
9.33
30
Jordan Cameron CLE 
6
6.74
-0.74
12.74
31
Jace Amaro NYJ 
4.2
4.01
0.19
8.21
32
Heath Miller PIT 
4.5
4.31
0.19
8.81
33
Vernon Davis SF 
5.24
5.67
-0.43
10.91

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