Hello and welcome to Market Fantasy!
Below are my efficiency rankings. The idea is similar to my consistency rankings in how they are calculated, but looking at a different set of metrics. The consistency rankings are really more of a predictive tool than a rank, in that by showing a players average performance and standard deviation within those performances, we can get an idea of what to expect from a player in a given week.
The efficiency rankings below are based on two metrics: total number of touches and points per touch. Total number of touches is the number of times a player touches the football, either via reception or carry. Points per touch is the number of fantasy points a player scores each time they touch the ball (YTD fantasy points divided by total touches).
The idea in calculating where a player ranks is similar to how I get to my consistency ranks. In calculating the consistency ranks, more weight is given to players with higher average scores, since they are high performers, but also lowest standard deviation. A lower standard deviation gives us a smaller range of outcomes when predicting what their score will be. In calculating the below efficiency ranks, the most weight is given to the highest touches, along with the highest points per touch. The idea is to find the players who will touch the ball the most and score the most points each time they do so. A player like Antone Smith has a very high points per touch among running backs, but also a smaller workload, so a big game is blown out of proportion some.
One last note on the ranks: running backs will have a lower points per touch than wide receivers and tight ends due to both the higher number of touches and the nature of their touches. Whereas a receiver might average 15 yards (1.5 points) per reception, a good running back only averages 4.5 (.45 points) yards per carry (and a little more per reception).
Inane Comments:
RB: Look at how much of a boss Marshawn Lynch is. He is dominating the top scoring RB in DeMarco Murray, and his total points are low only because he’s already had a bye week. If I had Murray, I’d cash out for Lynch right now if the Lynch owner was into it. He’s already got 145 touches!.... Everyone is ready to bury Matt Asiata, but I’d hold out a little longer. The Pts/Touch is inflated by TDs, but he’s the one getting the goal line looks and the Jerrick McKinnon show isn’t quite ready yet….. Antone Smith is a guy I’d pick up before the frenzy really gets going in two weeks. He reminds me of Andre Ellington last year…. Benny Cunningham is someone else to jump on if you still can. He’s performing better than Stacy and it should be at least a 60/40 split now with Benny taking on more soon. Especially if Stacy is hurt….. Montee Ball has been bad this year, but let’s see if anyone else in that backfield can step up while he’s out. I’m not betting too much on Hillman… On the flip side, Ben Tate hasn’t been that great and his two backups have both outplayed him. Tate has the contract, but Terrence West and Isaiah Crowell have the talent judging by the numbers….. Lastly, look at my guy Forte. His Pts/Touch is down due to his only having one TD, but he’s second among RB with 618 YFS. The TDs will come and he’s always bankable for yardage. I’d place him as the #2 RB for ROS behind Lynch.
WR: Well, it looks like we can go back to ignoring Eddie Royal after Philip Rivers ignored him last week…. I have to say I’m surprised by Jeremy Maclin. I’ve never been a believer mostly due to health and thought he’d get exposed as the lead guy this year. He’s proven me wrong as the #4 scoring WR, albeit thanks to 4 TDs. There’s really no one else that’s a threat to him as his 57 targets so far ties him with Julio Jones for the league lead among WR so far….. Kelvin Benjamin is ranked pretty well, but he looked bad against the Bears last week. A couple bad drops. He still leads the Panthers in targets and Cam should continue to give him chances…. Everyone loves DeAndre Hopkins, but last night showed that Andre Johnson is still the guy there. Sell if someone still believes Hopkins is the #1 in Houston…. Percy Harvin is overrated, Dwayne Bowe just sucks. Stay away from both those guys. Try to sell Harvin’s three missed TDs if you can. That’s the best window you will have with him…. Sell Julian Edelman too. Look at that tiny Pts/Touch number. Woof. The TEs will rule the roost in NE with a surprisingly run first agenda.
TE: Greg Olsen isn’t the best TE, but he might be the most valuable. Third in touches, third in points…. Actually Gates might be the most valuable. He was undrafted in a lot of leagues…. Martellus Bennett, it’s been fun, but Brandon Marshall is back healthy now. He’s a much better real life player than fantasy player. Sell now….. Jimmy Graham leads all TE in yards, but only has three TDs this year. As long as his shoulder isn’t hurt too badly, he should be fine going forward. Julius Thomas is the #1 TE this year, but Graham will be great also.
Thanks for reading everyone!
RB:
Rank
|
Player
|
MF Pts
|
Touches
|
Pts/Touch
| |||||
1
|
Marshawn Lynch SEA
|
79.2
|
82
|
0.966
| |||||
2
|
DeMarco Murray DAL
|
101.4
|
145
|
0.699
| |||||
3
|
Le'Veon Bell PIT
|
74.8
|
111
|
0.674
| |||||
4
|
Justin Forsett BAL
|
59.5
|
73
|
0.815
| |||||
5
|
Giovani Bernard CIN
|
58.5
|
82
|
0.713
| |||||
6
|
Ahmad Bradshaw IND
|
62.1
|
67
|
0.927
| |||||
7
|
Matt Asiata MIN
|
56.2
|
74
|
0.759
| |||||
8
|
Arian Foster HOU
|
66.3
|
99
|
0.670
| |||||
9
|
Frank Gore SF
|
55.3
|
81
|
0.683
| |||||
10
|
Chris Ivory NYJ
|
50.8
|
66
|
0.770
| |||||
11
|
Fred Jackson BUF
|
48.9
|
68
|
0.719
| |||||
12
|
Pierre Thomas NO
|
48.7
|
46
|
1.059
| |||||
13
|
Rashad Jennings NYG
|
60.5
|
102
|
0.593
| |||||
14
|
Darren Sproles PHI
|
47
|
41
|
1.146
| |||||
15
|
Alfred Morris WAS
|
55
|
88
|
0.625
| |||||
16
|
Lamar Miller MIA
|
47
|
61
|
0.770
| |||||
17
|
Eddie Lacy GB
|
50.2
|
76
|
0.661
| |||||
18
|
Andre Ellington ARI
|
50
|
75
|
0.667
| |||||
19
|
Matt Forte CHI
|
65.8
|
118
|
0.558
| |||||
20
|
Knile Davis KC
|
52.8
|
81
|
0.652
| |||||
21
|
Jamaal Charles KC
|
41.8
|
51
|
0.820
| |||||
22
|
Branden Oliver SD
|
36.9
|
39
|
0.946
| |||||
23
|
Khiry Robinson NO
|
43
|
64
|
0.672
| |||||
24
|
Roy Helu WAS
|
35.7
|
32
|
1.116
| |||||
25
|
Jeremy Hill CIN
|
34.3
|
33
|
1.039
| |||||
26
|
Stevan Ridley NE
|
45.1
|
87
|
0.518
| |||||
27
|
Shane Vereen NE
|
38.3
|
54
|
0.709
| |||||
28
|
Isaiah Crowell CLE
|
34.3
|
34
|
1.009
| |||||
29
|
Mark Ingram NO
|
34.5
|
28
|
1.232
| |||||
30
|
Bobby Rainey TB
|
41.9
|
63
|
0.665
| |||||
31
|
Antone Smith ATL
|
49.7
|
17
|
2.924
| |||||
32
|
LeGarrette Blount PIT
|
32.3
|
32
|
1.009
| |||||
33
|
Steven Jackson ATL
|
41.5
|
72
|
0.576
| |||||
34
|
Trent Richardson IND
|
41.2
|
85
|
0.485
| |||||
35
|
Lorenzo Taliaferro BAL
|
28.7
|
38
|
0.755
| |||||
36
|
Darrel Young WAS
|
22.4
|
8
|
2.800
| |||||
37
|
Terrance West CLE
|
38.2
|
58
|
0.659
| |||||
38
|
Joe McKnight KC
|
18.7
|
7
|
2.671
| |||||
39
|
LeSean McCoy PHI
|
38.2
|
108
|
0.354
| |||||
40
|
C.J. Spiller BUF
|
38.1
|
75
|
0.508
| |||||
41
|
Reggie Bush DET
|
36.3
|
65
|
0.558
| |||||
42
|
Travaris Cadet NO
|
13.3
|
13
|
1.023
| |||||
43
|
Carlos Hyde SF
|
25.5
|
37
|
0.689
| |||||
44
|
Bishop Sankey TEN
|
24.2
|
35
|
0.691
| |||||
45
|
Chris Johnson NYJ
|
32.9
|
57
|
0.577
| |||||
46
|
Robert Turbin SEA
|
15.3
|
18
|
0.850
| |||||
47
|
Knowshon Moreno MIA
|
19.8
|
25
|
0.792
| |||||
48
|
Zac Stacy STL
|
34.1
|
63
|
0.541
| |||||
49
|
Andre Williams NYG
|
31.5
|
58
|
0.543
| |||||
50
|
Shonn Greene TEN
|
25
|
44
|
0.568
| |||||
51
|
Donald Brown SD
|
20.2
|
72
|
0.281
| |||||
52
|
Benny Cunningham STL
|
23.5
|
36
|
0.653
| |||||
53
|
Montee Ball DEN
|
27.4
|
64
|
0.428
| |||||
54
|
Darren McFadden OAK
|
28.6
|
56
|
0.511
| |||||
55
|
Jacquizz Rodgers ATL
|
17.9
|
26
|
0.688
| |||||
56
|
Jerick McKinnon MIN
|
21.9
|
38
|
0.576
| |||||
57
|
Joique Bell DET
|
26.5
|
57
|
0.465
| |||||
58
|
Jonathan Stewart CAR
|
20.6
|
36
|
0.572
| |||||
59
|
Toby Gerhart JAC
|
24.6
|
56
|
0.439
| |||||
60
|
Ryan Mathews SD
|
17.7
|
27
|
0.656
| |||||
61
|
Doug Martin TB
|
20.6
|
43
|
0.479
| |||||
62
|
Alfred Blue HOU
|
16.9
|
42
|
0.402
| |||||
63
|
Ben Tate CLE
|
16.2
|
29
|
0.559
| |||||
64
|
Devonta Freeman ATL
|
15.6
|
31
|
0.503
| |||||
65
|
Bernard Pierce BAL
|
13
|
33
|
0.394
| |||||
66
|
James Starks GB
|
13.4
|
31
|
0.432
| |||||
WR:
| |||||||||
Rank
|
Player
|
MF Pts
|
Touches
|
Pts/Touch
| |||||
1
|
Antonio Brown PIT
|
82.1
|
36
|
2.281
| |||||
2
|
Jordy Nelson GB
|
76.5
|
34
|
2.250
| |||||
3
|
Jeremy Maclin PHI
|
66.9
|
25
|
2.676
| |||||
4
|
Randall Cobb GB
|
63.9
|
26
|
2.458
| |||||
5
|
Steve Smith BAL
|
62.3
|
30
|
2.077
| |||||
6
|
Dez Bryant DAL
|
61.6
|
32
|
1.925
| |||||
7
|
Demaryius Thomas DEN
|
54.7
|
21
|
2.605
| |||||
8
|
Julio Jones ATL
|
71.2
|
40
|
1.780
| |||||
9
|
Eddie Royal SD
|
51.5
|
22
|
2.341
| |||||
10
|
DeAndre Hopkins HOU
|
53.4
|
24
|
2.225
| |||||
11
|
Kelvin Benjamin CAR
|
52.7
|
24
|
2.196
| |||||
12
|
Brian Quick STL
|
50.2
|
21
|
2.390
| |||||
13
|
Brandon Marshall CHI
|
46.8
|
19
|
2.463
| |||||
14
|
DeSean Jackson WAS
|
47.5
|
21
|
2.262
| |||||
15
|
Terrance Williams DAL
|
55
|
16
|
3.438
| |||||
16
|
Calvin Johnson DET
|
46.8
|
22
|
2.127
| |||||
17
|
Alshon Jeffery CHI
|
50.4
|
29
|
1.738
| |||||
18
|
Allen Hurns JAC
|
46
|
16
|
2.875
| |||||
19
|
A.J. Green CIN
|
41.9
|
18
|
2.328
| |||||
20
|
Golden Tate DET
|
51.5
|
32
|
1.609
| |||||
21
|
Mike Wallace MIA
|
41.8
|
22
|
1.900
| |||||
22
|
Kendall Wright TEN
|
42.6
|
27
|
1.578
| |||||
23
|
Reggie Wayne IND
|
44.4
|
30
|
1.480
| |||||
24
|
Emmanuel Sanders DEN
|
45.2
|
36
|
1.256
| |||||
25
|
Malcom Floyd SD
|
37.9
|
12
|
3.158
| |||||
26
|
Sammy Watkins BUF
|
40.4
|
24
|
1.683
| |||||
27
|
Vincent Jackson TB
|
39.8
|
21
|
1.895
| |||||
28
|
Julian Edelman NE
|
41.3
|
35
|
1.180
| |||||
29
|
Victor Cruz NYG
|
38.1
|
21
|
1.814
| |||||
30
|
Devin Hester ATL
|
35.5
|
16
|
2.219
| |||||
31
|
Michael Crabtree SF
|
37
|
26
|
1.423
| |||||
32
|
Eric Decker NYJ
|
32.4
|
14
|
2.314
| |||||
33
|
Mohamed Sanu CIN
|
35.8
|
18
|
1.989
| |||||
34
|
T.Y. Hilton IND
|
38.6
|
32
|
1.206
| |||||
35
|
Travis Benjamin CLE
|
30.5
|
10
|
3.050
| |||||
36
|
Justin Hunter TEN
|
29.7
|
12
|
2.475
| |||||
37
|
Brandin Cooks NO
|
37.9
|
37
|
1.024
| |||||
38
|
John Brown ARI
|
29.5
|
12
|
2.458
| |||||
39
|
Ricardo Lockette SEA
|
19.9
|
4
|
4.975
| |||||
40
|
Roddy White ATL
|
33.3
|
16
|
2.081
| |||||
41
|
James Jones OAK
|
37.2
|
21
|
1.771
| |||||
42
|
Pierre Garcon WAS
|
33.8
|
26
|
1.300
| |||||
43
|
Cordarrelle Patterson MIN
|
34.4
|
19
|
1.811
| |||||
44
|
Mike Williams BUF
|
20.2
|
8
|
2.525
| |||||
45
|
Anquan Boldin SF
|
30.3
|
25
|
1.212
| |||||
46
|
Steve Johnson SF
|
30.3
|
15
|
2.020
| |||||
47
|
Andre Johnson HOU
|
30
|
27
|
1.111
| |||||
48
|
Andre Roberts WAS
|
30.5
|
17
|
1.794
| |||||
49
|
Rueben Randle NYG
|
30.9
|
23
|
1.343
| |||||
50
|
Marques Colston NO
|
28.8
|
15
|
1.920
| |||||
51
|
Brandon LaFell NE
|
24.5
|
11
|
2.227
| |||||
52
|
Greg Jennings MIN
|
29.5
|
17
|
1.735
| |||||
53
|
Percy Harvin SEA
|
26.6
|
27
|
0.985
| |||||
54
|
Jordan Matthews PHI
|
29.6
|
19
|
1.558
| |||||
55
|
Miles Austin CLE
|
28.9
|
16
|
1.806
| |||||
56
|
Andrew Hawkins CLE
|
27.1
|
24
|
1.129
| |||||
57
|
Michael Floyd ARI
|
26.1
|
13
|
2.008
| |||||
58
|
Keenan Allen SD
|
26.9
|
25
|
1.076
| |||||
59
|
Torrey Smith BAL
|
23.6
|
11
|
2.145
| |||||
60
|
Markus Wheaton PIT
|
25.9
|
23
|
1.126
| |||||
61
|
Louis Murphy TB
|
19.4
|
9
|
2.156
| |||||
62
|
Jeremy Kerley NYJ
|
26.5
|
19
|
1.395
| |||||
63
|
Mike Evans TB
|
26.3
|
17
|
1.547
| |||||
64
|
Kenny Britt STL
|
22.8
|
11
|
2.073
| |||||
65
|
Allen Robinson JAC
|
24.3
|
22
|
1.105
| |||||
66
|
Hakeem Nicks IND
|
24.3
|
15
|
1.620
| |||||
67
|
Jermaine Kearse SEA
|
16.6
|
8
|
2.075
| |||||
68
|
Andre Holmes OAK
|
20.8
|
11
|
1.891
| |||||
69
|
Brian Hartline MIA
|
22.1
|
16
|
1.381
| |||||
70
|
Austin Pettis STL
|
16.3
|
9
|
1.811
| |||||
71
|
Jerricho Cotchery CAR
|
20.4
|
16
|
1.275
| |||||
72
|
Riley Cooper PHI
|
19.8
|
19
|
1.042
| |||||
73
|
Taylor Gabriel CLE
|
20
|
13
|
1.538
| |||||
74
|
Jason Avant CAR
|
19.2
|
12
|
1.600
| |||||
75
|
Dwayne Bowe KC
|
19.5
|
14
|
1.393
| |||||
76
|
Jarius Wright MIN
|
19.1
|
15
|
1.273
| |||||
77
|
Jeremy Ross DET
|
15.6
|
9
|
1.733
| |||||
78
|
Harry Douglas ATL
|
18.1
|
12
|
1.508
| |||||
79
|
Donnie Avery KC
|
15.6
|
14
|
1.114
| |||||
80
|
Philly Brown CAR
|
11.8
|
13
|
0.908
| |||||
TE:
| |||||||||
Rank
|
Player
|
MF Pts
|
Touches
|
Pts/Touch
| |||||
1
|
Antonio Gates TE | SD
|
57.5
|
21
|
2.738
| |||||
2
|
Greg Olsen TE | CAR
|
56.6
|
27
|
2.096
| |||||
3
|
Julius Thomas TE | DEN
|
64.6
|
20
|
3.230
| |||||
4
|
Delanie Walker TE | TEN
|
54.4
|
26
|
2.092
| |||||
5
|
Martellus Bennett TE | CHI
|
55.2
|
32
|
1.725
| |||||
6
|
Rob Gronkowski TE | NE
|
48.7
|
19
|
2.563
| |||||
7
|
Larry Donnell TE | NYG
|
45.6
|
25
|
1.824
| |||||
8
|
Travis Kelce TE | KC
|
45.4
|
20
|
2.270
| |||||
9
|
Jimmy Graham TE | NO
|
53.6
|
34
|
1.576
| |||||
10
|
Dwayne Allen TE | IND
|
44.4
|
15
|
2.960
| |||||
11
|
Niles Paul TE | WAS
|
35.9
|
22
|
1.632
| |||||
12
|
Coby Fleener TE | IND
|
25.9
|
11
|
2.355
| |||||
13
|
Zach Ertz TE | PHI
|
29.9
|
16
|
1.869
| |||||
14
|
Jacob Tamme TE | DEN
|
16.3
|
4
|
4.075
| |||||
15
|
Heath Miller TE | PIT
|
28.3
|
24
|
1.179
| |||||
16
|
Josh Hill TE | NO
|
23.2
|
7
|
3.314
| |||||
17
|
Daniel Fells TE | NYG
|
21.8
|
6
|
3.633
| |||||
18
|
Owen Daniels TE | BAL
|
30.3
|
19
|
1.595
| |||||
19
|
Vernon Davis TE | SF
|
21.1
|
9
|
2.344
| |||||
20
|
Jared Cook TE | STL
|
22.1
|
20
|
1.105
| |||||
21
|
Timothy Wright TE | NE
|
18
|
9
|
2.000
| |||||
22
|
Marcedes Lewis TE | JAC
|
16.6
|
8
|
2.075
| |||||
23
|
Jason Witten TE | DAL
|
21.5
|
19
|
1.132
| |||||
24
|
Anthony Fasano TE | KC
|
18.3
|
12
|
1.525
| |||||
25
|
Eric Ebron TE | DET
|
14
|
8
|
1.750
| |||||
26
|
Lance Kendricks TE | STL
|
14.8
|
12
|
1.233
| |||||
27
|
Dennis Pitta TE | BAL
|
12.5
|
16
|
0.781
| |||||
28
|
Kyle Rudolph TE | MIN
|
15.6
|
10
|
1.560
| |||||
29
|
Andrew Quarless TE | GB
|
15.6
|
10
|
1.560
| |||||
30
|
Jace Amaro TE | NYJ
|
14.4
|
14
|
1.029
| |||||
31
|
Scott Chandler TE | BUF
|
13.7
|
13
|
1.054
|
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