Saturday, October 18, 2014

Week 6 Efficiency Rankings

Hello and welcome to Market Fantasy!

Below are my efficiency rankings. The idea is similar to my consistency rankings in how they are calculated, but looking at a different set of metrics. The consistency rankings are really more of a predictive tool than a rank, in that by showing a players average performance and standard deviation within those performances, we can get an idea of what to expect from a player in a given week. 

The efficiency rankings below are based on two metrics: total number of touches and points per touch. Total number of touches is the number of times a player touches the football, either via reception or carry. Points per touch is the number of fantasy points a player scores each time they touch the ball (YTD fantasy points divided by total touches). 

The idea in calculating where a player ranks is similar to how I get to my consistency ranks. In calculating the consistency ranks, more weight is given to players with higher average scores, since they are high performers, but also lowest standard deviation. A lower standard deviation gives us a smaller range of outcomes when predicting what their score will be. In calculating the below efficiency ranks, the most weight is given to the highest touches, along with the highest points per touch. The idea is to find the players who will touch the ball the most and score the most points each time they do so. A player like Antone Smith has a very high points per touch among running backs, but also a smaller workload, so a big game is blown out of proportion some. 

One last note on the ranks: running backs will have a lower points per touch than wide receivers and tight ends due to both the higher number of touches and the nature of their touches. Whereas a receiver might average 15 yards (1.5 points) per reception, a good running back only averages 4.5 (.45 points) yards per carry (and a little more per reception).

RB:
Rank
Player
MF Pts
Touches
Pts/Touch
1
Marshawn Lynch SEA 
85.4
93
0.918
2
Arian Foster HOU 
92.4
122
0.757
3
Giovani Bernard CIN 
80.2
104
0.771
4
DeMarco Murray DAL 
122
180
0.678
5
Justin Forsett BAL 
70.6
87
0.811
6
Ahmad Bradshaw IND 
74
81
0.914
7
Matt Forte CHI 
93.5
145
0.645
8
Le'Veon Bell PIT 
85.3
133
0.641
9
Lamar Miller MIA 
60.3
78
0.773
10
Fred Jackson BUF 
59.2
82
0.722
11
Matt Asiata MIN 
57.5
77
0.747
12
Branden Oliver SD 
55.3
69
0.801
13
Rashad Jennings NYG 
60.5
102
0.593
14
Frank Gore SF 
59.1
97
0.609
15
Alfred Morris WAS 
60.5
102
0.593
16
Andre Ellington ARI 
59.3
100
0.593
17
Chris Ivory NYJ 
52.9
75
0.705
18
Darren Sproles PHI 
56.9
48
1.185
19
Knile Davis KC 
52.8
81
0.652
20
Eddie Lacy GB 
54.2
90
0.602
21
Pierre Thomas NO 
48.7
46
1.059
22
Jamaal Charles KC
41.8
51
0.820
23
Bobby Rainey TB 
46.1
70
0.659
24
Isaiah Crowell CLE 
46
45
1.022
25
Khiry Robinson NO 
43
64
0.672
26
Jeremy Hill CIN 
43.8
45
0.973
27
Roy Helu WAS
42.3
37
1.143
28
Trent Richardson IND 
51.3
102
0.503
29
Darrel Young WAS 
22.4
8
2.800
30
Antone Smith ATL 
62.6
23
2.722
31
Mark Ingram NO 
34.5
28
1.232
32
LeSean McCoy PHI 
53.6
132
0.406
33
Stevan Ridley NE 
48
98
0.490
34
Steven Jackson ATL 
44
78
0.564
35
Terrance West CLE 
38.2
58
0.659
36
LeGarrette Blount PIT 
35
40
0.875
37
Shane Vereen NE 
39
60
0.650
38
Ben Tate CLE 
36.1
54
0.669
39
Lorenzo Taliaferro BAL 
33.4
42
0.795
40
Joique Bell DET 
42.2
77
0.548
41
Benny Cunningham STL 
32.8
45
0.729
42
C.J. Spiller BUF 
38
81
0.469
43
Reggie Bush DET 
36.3
65
0.558
44
Zac Stacy STL 
37.5
73
0.514
45
Darren McFadden OAK 
37.2
72
0.517
46
Andre Williams NYG 
37.4
75
0.499
47
Chris Johnson NYJ 
34
61
0.557
48
Bishop Sankey TEN 
31
54
0.574
49
Knowshon Moreno MIA 
21.6
32
0.675
50
Jerick McKinnon MIN 
30.1
55
0.547
51
Carlos Hyde SF
27
49
0.551
52
Montee Ball DEN 
27.4
64
0.428
53
Shonn Greene TEN 
25
44
0.568
54
Toby Gerhart JAC 
24.6
56
0.439
55
Doug Martin TB 
25.4
55
0.462
56
Jonathan Stewart CAR 
20.6
36
0.572
57
Bernard Pierce BAL 
22.2
48
0.463
58
Ronnie Hillman DEN 
18.9
45
0.420


WR:
Rank
Player
MF Pts
Touches
Pts/Touch
1
Jordy Nelson GB 
93.2
43
2.167
2
Antonio Brown PIT 
93.7
44
2.130
3
Steve Smith BAL 
79.3
35
2.266
4
Randall Cobb GB 
75.8
32
2.369
5
Demaryius Thomas DEN 
73.1
31
2.358
6
Jeremy Maclin PHI 
68.5
27
2.537
7
DeSean Jackson WAS 
65.5
25
2.620
8
Julio Jones ATL 
78.1
45
1.736
9
Dez Bryant DAL 
67.9
36
1.886
10
Kelvin Benjamin CAR 
63.6
31
2.052
11
Eddie Royal SD 
62.4
24
2.600
12
Alshon Jeffery CHI 
64
36
1.778
13
Brandon Marshall CHI 
58.1
25
2.324
14
T.Y. Hilton IND 
66.9
41
1.632
15
DeAndre Hopkins HOU 
54.6
25
2.184
16
Mohamed Sanu CIN 
53.8
28
1.921
17
Mike Wallace MIA 
54.5
27
2.019
18
Terrance Williams DAL 
62
18
3.444
19
Brian Quick STL 
51.2
22
2.327
20
Golden Tate DET 
55.9
39
1.433
21
Allen Hurns JAC 
47.8
18
2.656
22
James Jones OAK 
48.8
26
1.877
23
Michael Crabtree SF 
47.9
29
1.652
24
Malcom Floyd SD 
54.2
17
3.188
25
Calvin Johnson DET 
46.8
22
2.127
26
Julian Edelman NE 
51.4
45
1.142
27
Reggie Wayne IND 
47.9
34
1.409
28
Vincent Jackson TB 
46.4
25
1.856
29
Eric Decker NYJ 
43.8
20
2.190
30
Emmanuel Sanders DEN 
49
39
1.256
31
A.J. Green CIN 
41.9
18
2.328
32
Anquan Boldin SF 
45.7
32
1.428
33
Sammy Watkins BUF 
43.1
26
1.658
34
Brandon LaFell NE 
46.2
15
3.080
35
Pierre Garcon WAS 
42.9
30
1.430
36
Brandon Lloyd SF 
24.9
7
3.557
37
Andre Holmes OAK 
44.9
15
2.993
38
Kendall Wright TEN 
43.2
28
1.543
39
Andre Johnson HOU 
43.9
34
1.291
40
Torrey Smith BAL 
40.7
15
2.713
41
Travis Benjamin CLE 
33.9
12
2.825
42
Brandin Cooks NO
37.9
37
1.024
43
Victor Cruz NYG 
39.7
23
1.726
44
Devin Hester ATL 
37.8
17
2.224
45
Mike Evans TB 
37.8
21
1.800
46
Justin Hunter TEN 
37.4
15
2.493
47
Roddy White ATL 
37.3
19
1.963
48
Michael Floyd ARI 
36.8
17
2.165
49
Rueben Randle NYG 
36.7
28
1.311
50
Percy Harvin SEA 
26.5
33
0.803
51
Cordarrelle Patterson MIN 
36.1
22
1.641
52
Steve Johnson SF 
35.6
20
1.780
53
John Brown ARI
33.8
16
2.113
54
Jordan Matthews PHI 
34.6
23
1.504
55
Andre Roberts WAS 
34
22
1.545
56
Allen Robinson JAC 
31.1
30
1.037
57
Louis Murphy TB 
32.6
16
2.038
58
Keenan Allen SD 
29.6
28
1.057
59
Greg Jennings MIN
32.8
20
1.640
60
Miles Austin CLE
31.8
18
1.767
61
Markus Wheaton PIT 
29.2
27
1.081
62
Jermaine Kearse SEA 
22.8
11
2.073
63
Larry Fitzgerald ARI 
30.2
19
1.589
64
Marques Colston NO
28.8
15
1.920
65
Robert Woods BUF 
29.4
21
1.400
66
Kenny Britt STL 
26.7
14
1.907
67
Andrew Hawkins CLE 
27
24
1.125
68
Riley Cooper PHI 
25.7
24
1.071
69
Jeremy Kerley NYJ
26.9
20
1.345
70
Jerricho Cotchery CAR
26.2
20
1.310
71
Hakeem Nicks IND 
26.1
17
1.535
72
Jarius Wright MIN
22.9
20
1.145
73
Jason Avant CAR
23.9
17
1.406
74
Davante Adams GB 
22.7
16
1.419
75
Cecil Shorts JAC 
20.3
17
1.194


TE:
Rank
Player
MF Pts
Touches
Pts/Touch
1
Julius Thomas DEN 
81.7
24
3.404
2
Greg Olsen CAR 
68.8
33
2.085
3
Antonio Gates SD 
66.2
24
2.758
4
Delanie Walker TEN 
60.1
29
2.072
5
Rob Gronkowski NE 
58.1
26
2.235
6
Martellus Bennett CHI 
60.4
36
1.678
7
Larry Donnell NYG 
46.2
26
1.777
8
Jimmy Graham NO 
53.6
34
1.576
9
Dwayne Allen IND 
49.3
18
2.739
10
Travis Kelce KC
45.4
20
2.270
11
Zach Ertz PHI 
40.6
19
2.137
12
Coby Fleener IND 
33
13
2.538
13
Daniel Fells NYG 
23.8
8
2.975
14
Josh Hill NO 
23.2
7
3.314
15
Jordan Cameron CLE 
26.5
9
2.944
16
Timothy Wright NE 
24.1
10
2.410
17
Niles Paul WAS 
36.6
23
1.591
18
Owen Daniels BAL 
33.7
21
1.605
19
Heath Miller PIT 
30.2
26
1.162
20
Jared Cook STL 
29.5
24
1.229
21
Clay Harbor JAC 
24.3
14
1.736
22
Jason Witten DAL 
29.9
21
1.424
23
Vernon Davis SF 
24.1
12
2.008
24
Lance Kendricks STL 
23
13
1.769
25
Jace Amaro NYJ 
27.2
24
1.133
26
Andrew Quarless GB 
22.7
12
1.892
27
Scott Chandler BUF 
24.2
19
1.274
28
Anthony Fasano KC
18.3
12
1.525

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