Hello and Welcome to Market Fantasy!
Below are the Market Fantasy consistency rankings. When I first started doing this last year, I rushed to get them out on Tuesday night to combine them with a free agent pickup column. I’ve decided to stop rushing out the free agent column. Partly because there are a billion sites all telling you to pick up the same guys, so you don’t need me to also tell you to pick up an injured RBs backup. Hopefully, you’ve figured that out on your own. I’m not trying for content just for content’s sake. Also, if there are any free agent picks you find in here, you don’t have to waste a waiver claim on them Tuesday night when the majority of claims are processed. These guys you can pick up Wednesday as free agents and save those high claims for the in demand players everyone else is telling you about that you can probably figure out on your own. I’ll just make some quick observations about each position. Good?
Before we get started, let me give you the quick explanation of these rankings. They are based on a combination of a player’s average weekly scoring and the standard deviation of those scores. The idea is to find the players who not only average the highest points on a per week basis, but also deviate the least from that average. These are not meant to be rest of season or even weekly ranks, just an idea of how a player has performed thus far in the season. Mark Ingram tops Demarco Murray in these rankings, but don’t trade Murray for Ingram, ok?
Like my post earlier on ceilings and floors, these ranks are meant to give you an idea of what to expect from a player. If a player has a high average score and a high standard deviation, they are not very consistent and their point average has been influenced by a huge game and the rest pedestrian games. The average score and standard deviations have been provided for each player, so use them to make your own decisions about your team and identify players to either unload or trade for.
As always, love to hear comments. Thanks for reading!
QB: For all the grief Brees is getting, he’s still 8th in per game scoring and with that small standard deviation, you can basically bank that number on a weekly basis. High average, low deviation. That’s what I love. Make a buy low if you can….. EJ Manuel has a small standard deviation, unfortunately, he rarely deviates from being bad. Kyle Orton is immediately a bye week replacement candidate and could fill in for an injured guy all year…… Aaron Rodgers had a couple of bad weeks early on, but is humming right along recently. I expect the standard deviation to shrink…… Foles, Stafford, Big Ben. All three could be back end starters in 12 team leagues, but I don’t expect much consistency at all from either for a variety of reasons. Foles in particular is the surprise. The Eagles are just bad…. As if we needed further proof that Lovie Smith is terrible at coaching, look at Mike Glennon. He was fine last year, but Smith insisted on signing an old one year wonder who thrived because he had three top 20 offensive players at his disposal. I’d get Glennon if I needed a backup/bye week replacement. He’s got a couple weapons and shouldn’t lose his job the rest of the way
RB: Lamar Miller has been great when given the chance this year, but he’ll probably be back in a timeshare this week with Knowshon Moreno expected back. Too bad, looked like he could’ve had the year most people predicted last year…. If Antone Smith is somehow still available, you need to get him. He’s a big play threat, and Steven Jackson is bound to be hurt. He could be huge with an everyday role….. After briefly being not terrible in week 4, Trent Richardson went back to being terrible in week 5 and was outplayed again by Ahmad Bradshaw. Bradshaw should be owned everywhere…. Steven Ridley has been unexpectedly good this year. He’s only a fumble away from being exiled to Siberia, but I would cautiously buy on him if the owner is looking to cash out…. Finally, look at the awesome consistency of Marshawn Lynch and DeMarco Murray. High averages and low standard deviations. Bankable production. Love it.
WR: This is the position where it hopefully gets clear that these aren’t rest of season ranks or anything like that. Be smart when you see a group of guys averaging 6 points and not deviating from that really at all. There’s some decent flex value there, however….. Everyone is going to talk about the three TDs that Harvin had called back last week as if he should be ranked better everywhere. Had he scored those TDs and I had him, I would look to sell in a heartbeat. I’m just not a Harvin believer and the numbers really bear it out over the years….. What to do with Louis Murphy? A couple of 9 point games, albeit in different ways. He didn’t have the yards last week, but still scored. I can see him mattering while Mike Evans is out, especially with V-Jax dinged up. Not a bad flex….. Analysts are tripping all over themselves to jump on the DeAndre Hopkins bandwagon, and I get it to some extent. Just know that Andre Johnson is not going away and he’s still getting the bulk of the targets. Hopkins’ value is very TD driven so far, and I just don’t like relying on that…. Calvin Johnson or not, Golden Tate should be at least a flex play every week. Perfect situation for him…. Call it a feeling on Brandin Cooks, but I think he’s due for a breakout game after being relatively quiet for a while. Despite the low yardage total, he only has 5 less targets than Jimmy Graham and has the ability to house it from anywhere.
TE: Dwayne Allen is looking like the exception to my don’t rely on TDs for production rule. You can basically bank on 9 points from him, and there’s a lot to be said for that. He looks like the Colts’ best red zone target tied to fantasy’s best QB so far. I just got him for free on my waiver wire and suggest you look to do the same. He’s doing what everyone keeps telling you Travis Kelce will do….. Is the fun finally over for Jason Witten? Sure looks like it might be. Hey, there’s a guy to replace with Allen!..... Greg Olsen can be a little inconsistent, but I love just waiting on him in drafts and enjoying the ride. Solid production with only a couple stinkers every year….. Tim Wright won’t do what he did last week every week, and he’s not quite Aaron Hernandez, but he’s certainly worth a stash. He flashed some ability in Tampa Bay last year…... It’s really looking like Zach Ertz and Jordan Cameron are going to be busts. Some are preaching patience with Ertz and the rest of the Eagles’ offense, but I don’t know if I can hold out any longer on him.
QB:
Rank
|
Player
|
Avg
|
StdDev
| ||||
1
|
Drew Brees NO
|
23
|
2.66
| ||||
2
|
Jay Cutler CHI
|
25.2
|
4.67
| ||||
3
|
Peyton Manning DEN
|
31.9
|
7.10
| ||||
4
|
Colin Kaepernick SF
|
19.4
|
3.77
| ||||
5
|
Andrew Luck IND
|
33.5
|
7.74
| ||||
6
|
Philip Rivers SD
|
26.5
|
7.36
| ||||
7
|
Russell Wilson SEA
|
27.9
|
7.84
| ||||
8
|
Mike Glennon TB
|
19.3
|
5.09
| ||||
9
|
Charlie Whitehurst TEN
|
17.4
|
2.35
| ||||
10
|
Andy Dalton CIN
|
18.7
|
4.14
| ||||
11
|
EJ Manuel BUF
|
17.2
|
1.53
| ||||
12
|
Ryan Tannehill MIA
|
17.9
|
3.99
| ||||
13
|
Cam Newton CAR
|
17.4
|
2.82
| ||||
14
|
Tony Romo DAL
|
20.2
|
7.38
| ||||
15
|
Alex Smith KC
|
19.5
|
6.43
| ||||
16
|
Brian Hoyer CLE
|
18.7
|
5.44
| ||||
17
|
Matt Ryan ATL
|
26
|
10.19
| ||||
18
|
Kirk Cousins WAS
|
22.9
|
11.01
| ||||
19
|
Ryan Fitzpatrick HOU
|
14.5
|
5.52
| ||||
20
|
Aaron Rodgers GB
|
25.2
|
11.98
| ||||
21
|
Jake Locker TEN
|
15.8
|
5.96
| ||||
22
|
Eli Manning NYG
|
22.5
|
11.28
| ||||
23
|
Nick Foles PHI
|
20.2
|
10.05
| ||||
24
|
Matthew Stafford DET
|
20.5
|
11.74
| ||||
25
|
Ben Roethlisberger PIT
|
19.2
|
8.36
| ||||
26
|
Tom Brady NE
|
14.2
|
6.12
| ||||
27
|
Derek Carr OAK
|
13
|
5.53
| ||||
28
|
Blake Bortles JAC
|
13.2
|
6.17
| ||||
29
|
Joe Flacco BAL
|
19.1
|
9.06
| ||||
30
|
Austin Davis STL
|
20
|
12.69
| ||||
31
|
Teddy Bridgewater MIN
|
17.5
|
8.85
| ||||
32
|
Geno Smith NYJ
|
12.8
|
7.47
| ||||
33
|
Chad Henne JAC
|
12.1
|
8.26
| ||||
34
|
Josh McCown TB
|
12
|
8.30
| ||||
RB:
| |||||||
Rank
|
Player
|
Avg
|
Std Dev
| ||||
1
|
Mark Ingram NO
|
17.2
|
0.85
| ||||
2
|
DeMarco Murray DAL
|
23.7
|
4.10
| ||||
3
|
Justin Forsett BAL
|
11.9
|
4.16
| ||||
4
|
Ryan Mathews SD
|
8.8
|
3.15
| ||||
5
|
Lamar Miller MIA
|
12.5
|
4.57
| ||||
6
|
Zac Stacy STL
|
8.5
|
3.11
| ||||
7
|
Marshawn Lynch SEA
|
20.6
|
5.94
| ||||
8
|
Roy Helu WAS
|
7.2
|
2.73
| ||||
9
|
Steven Jackson ATL
|
8.3
|
3.42
| ||||
10
|
Fred Jackson BUF
|
10.2
|
4.29
| ||||
11
|
Ahmad Bradshaw IND
|
12.4
|
5.29
| ||||
12
|
C.J. Spiller BUF
|
8.8
|
3.88
| ||||
13
|
Giovani Bernard CIN
|
14.6
|
6.01
| ||||
14
|
Antone Smith ATL
|
9.9
|
4.38
| ||||
15
|
Terrance West CLE
|
10.3
|
4.51
| ||||
16
|
Chris Ivory NYJ
|
10.8
|
4.77
| ||||
17
|
Le'Veon Bell PIT
|
16.2
|
6.93
| ||||
18
|
Shane Vereen NE
|
7.7
|
3.73
| ||||
19
|
DeAngelo Williams CAR
|
5.3
|
1.90
| ||||
20
|
Trent Richardson IND
|
8.2
|
4.04
| ||||
21
|
Jonathan Stewart CAR
|
6.9
|
3.60
| ||||
22
|
Matt Forte CHI
|
14.4
|
7.57
| ||||
23
|
Daniel Thomas MIA
|
4.8
|
1.20
| ||||
24
|
Joique Bell DET
|
6.6
|
3.33
| ||||
25
|
Toby Gerhart JAC
|
4.9
|
2.30
| ||||
26
|
Jonathan Dwyer ARI
|
5.9
|
3.15
| ||||
27
|
Darren McFadden OAK
|
7.1
|
3.80
| ||||
28
|
Rashad Jennings NYG
|
13.2
|
8.45
| ||||
29
|
Shonn Greene TEN
|
5
|
2.89
| ||||
30
|
Arian Foster HOU
|
19.3
|
10.70
| ||||
31
|
Khiry Robinson NO
|
8.6
|
4.76
| ||||
32
|
Alfred Morris WAS
|
11
|
6.10
| ||||
33
|
Donald Brown SD
|
4.1
|
2.39
| ||||
34
|
Ben Tate CLE
|
9.7
|
5.60
| ||||
35
|
Darrel Young WAS
|
4.5
|
2.83
| ||||
36
|
Jeremy Hill CIN
|
8.6
|
4.96
| ||||
37
|
Frank Gore SF
|
12.3
|
8.52
| ||||
38
|
Doug Martin TB
|
6.9
|
4.10
| ||||
39
|
Andre Ellington ARI
|
13.2
|
9.44
| ||||
40
|
Carlos Hyde SF
|
5.1
|
3.68
| ||||
41
|
Reggie Bush DET
|
7.3
|
4.50
| ||||
42
|
Ronnie Hillman DEN
|
3.7
|
2.75
| ||||
43
|
Isaiah Crowell CLE
|
8.6
|
5.13
| ||||
44
|
Branden Oliver SD
|
13.3
|
14.19
| ||||
45
|
Darren Sproles PHI
|
11.6
|
9.44
| ||||
46
|
Matt Asiata MIN
|
11.2
|
9.37
| ||||
47
|
Knile Davis KC
|
11.8
|
9.44
| ||||
48
|
Bobby Rainey TB
|
9
|
6.30
| ||||
49
|
Eddie Lacy GB
|
10.6
|
9.32
| ||||
50
|
Benny Cunningham STL
|
5.9
|
4.32
| ||||
51
|
LeSean McCoy PHI
|
7.6
|
5.55
| ||||
52
|
Stevan Ridley NE
|
10.2
|
7.84
| ||||
53
|
Pierre Thomas NO
|
9.7
|
7.51
| ||||
54
|
Knowshon Moreno MIA
|
11.4
|
11.00
| ||||
55
|
Robert Turbin SEA
|
3.8
|
3.76
| ||||
56
|
Bishop Sankey TEN
|
4.8
|
4.06
| ||||
57
|
Montee Ball DEN
|
6.9
|
5.12
| ||||
58
|
Jamaal Charles KC
|
10.4
|
10.91
| ||||
59
|
Bernard Pierce BAL
|
4.3
|
4.43
| ||||
60
|
Chris Johnson NYJ
|
6.6
|
5.86
| ||||
61
|
Andre Williams NYG
|
6.3
|
5.87
| ||||
62
|
Lorenzo Taliaferro BAL
|
5.7
|
5.65
| ||||
63
|
LeGarrette Blount PIT
|
7.1
|
7.14
| ||||
64
|
Jerick McKinnon MIN
|
5
|
6.78
| ||||
WR:
| |||||||
Rank
|
Player
|
Avg
|
Std Dev
| ||||
1
|
Mike Wallace MIA
|
10.4
|
1.45
| ||||
2
|
Louis Murphy TB
|
9.7
|
0.20
| ||||
3
|
Emmanuel Sanders DEN
|
13.6
|
3.23
| ||||
4
|
DeAndre Hopkins HOU
|
11.3
|
3.45
| ||||
5
|
Mohamed Sanu CIN
|
11.6
|
3.76
| ||||
6
|
Malcom Floyd SD
|
7.6
|
1.40
| ||||
7
|
Dez Bryant DAL
|
12.9
|
4.66
| ||||
8
|
T.Y. Hilton IND
|
8.3
|
3.28
| ||||
9
|
A.J. Green CIN
|
12
|
4.71
| ||||
10
|
Andrew Hawkins CLE
|
6.8
|
2.45
| ||||
11
|
Alshon Jeffery CHI
|
10.7
|
4.26
| ||||
12
|
Brian Quick STL
|
12.6
|
5.00
| ||||
13
|
Wes Welker DEN
|
5.9
|
0.10
| ||||
14
|
Harry Douglas ATL
|
6
|
1.59
| ||||
15
|
Anquan Boldin SF
|
6.1
|
2.42
| ||||
16
|
Andre Johnson HOU
|
6
|
2.31
| ||||
17
|
Marques Colston NO
|
6.4
|
2.65
| ||||
18
|
Andre Roberts WAS
|
6.1
|
2.62
| ||||
19
|
Percy Harvin SEA
|
6.6
|
2.89
| ||||
20
|
Eric Decker NYJ
|
8.1
|
4.00
| ||||
21
|
Jerricho Cotchery CAR
|
5.6
|
1.84
| ||||
22
|
James Jones OAK
|
10.1
|
5.07
| ||||
23
|
Terrance Williams DAL
|
11
|
5.73
| ||||
24
|
Jeremy Maclin PHI
|
14.4
|
6.89
| ||||
25
|
Antonio Brown PIT
|
17.8
|
7.59
| ||||
26
|
Miles Austin CLE
|
7.2
|
3.73
| ||||
27
|
Mike Evans TB
|
6.6
|
3.47
| ||||
28
|
Golden Tate DET
|
11.5
|
6.42
| ||||
29
|
Vincent Jackson TB
|
8.6
|
4.82
| ||||
30
|
Steve Johnson SF
|
6.7
|
3.80
| ||||
31
|
Brandin Cooks NO
|
7.6
|
4.26
| ||||
32
|
Julian Edelman NE
|
8.3
|
4.80
| ||||
33
|
Julio Jones ATL
|
16.4
|
8.62
| ||||
34
|
Allen Robinson JAC
|
4.9
|
1.69
| ||||
35
|
Brian Hartline MIA
|
5.5
|
2.48
| ||||
36
|
Randall Cobb GB
|
13.8
|
8.01
| ||||
37
|
Roddy White ATL
|
8.3
|
4.96
| ||||
38
|
Dwayne Bowe KC
|
4.9
|
1.90
| ||||
39
|
Cecil Shorts JAC
|
6
|
3.50
| ||||
40
|
Jordy Nelson GB
|
17.3
|
10.78
| ||||
41
|
Reggie Wayne IND
|
9.5
|
6.15
| ||||
42
|
Kelvin Benjamin CAR
|
11.1
|
6.93
| ||||
43
|
Steve Smith BAL
|
14.3
|
9.75
| ||||
44
|
Markus Wheaton PIT
|
5.3
|
2.69
| ||||
45
|
Rueben Randle NYG
|
6.2
|
4.00
| ||||
46
|
Demaryius Thomas DEN
|
15.9
|
15.12
| ||||
47
|
Greg Jennings MIN
|
5.9
|
3.89
| ||||
48
|
Sammy Watkins BUF
|
8.7
|
6.66
| ||||
49
|
Austin Pettis STL
|
4.1
|
2.48
| ||||
50
|
Victor Cruz NYG
|
8.8
|
6.87
| ||||
51
|
Jermaine Kearse SEA
|
4.3
|
2.63
| ||||
52
|
Travis Benjamin CLE
|
7.7
|
6.05
| ||||
53
|
Devin Hester ATL
|
8.3
|
6.30
| ||||
54
|
Eddie Royal SD
|
10.9
|
8.76
| ||||
55
|
DeSean Jackson WAS
|
11.3
|
10.47
| ||||
56
|
Michael Crabtree SF
|
7.4
|
5.70
| ||||
57
|
Kendall Wright TEN
|
8.5
|
6.81
| ||||
58
|
Brandon Marshall CHI
|
9.4
|
7.58
| ||||
59
|
Kenny Britt STL
|
5.7
|
4.06
| ||||
60
|
Riley Cooper PHI
|
4
|
2.84
| ||||
61
|
Taylor Gabriel CLE
|
5
|
3.78
| ||||
62
|
Michael Floyd ARI
|
8
|
6.74
| ||||
63
|
Allen Hurns JAC
|
9.8
|
8.96
| ||||
64
|
Torrey Smith BAL
|
4.7
|
3.55
| ||||
65
|
Calvin Johnson DET
|
10.4
|
11.97
| ||||
66
|
John Brown ARI
|
7.4
|
6.45
| ||||
67
|
Hakeem Nicks IND
|
4.9
|
4.20
| ||||
68
|
Andre Holmes OAK
|
5.2
|
4.62
| ||||
69
|
Keenan Allen SD
|
6
|
5.41
| ||||
70
|
Cordarrelle Patterson MIN
|
7.6
|
7.33
| ||||
71
|
Ricardo Lockette SEA
|
5
|
4.55
| ||||
72
|
Justin Hunter TEN
|
5.9
|
5.25
| ||||
73
|
Rod Streater OAK
|
4.8
|
4.24
| ||||
74
|
Jeremy Kerley NYJ
|
5.3
|
4.76
| ||||
75
|
Jordan Matthews PHI
|
5.9
|
6.03
| ||||
76
|
Pierre Garcon WAS
|
7.4
|
8.04
| ||||
77
|
Mike Williams BUF
|
4
|
5.30
| ||||
78
|
Jarius Wright MIN
|
4.5
|
6.12
| ||||
79
|
Brandon LaFell NE
|
5.5
|
8.36
| ||||
TE:
| |||||||
Rank
|
Player
|
Avg
|
Std Dev
| ||||
1
|
Dwayne Allen IND
|
8.9
|
1.08
| ||||
2
|
Jared Cook STL
|
5.5
|
1.23
| ||||
3
|
Travis Kelce KC
|
9.1
|
3.46
| ||||
4
|
Kyle Rudolph MIN
|
5.2
|
2.00
| ||||
5
|
Martellus Bennett CHI
|
11.6
|
5.66
| ||||
6
|
Josh Hill NO
|
4.7
|
2.28
| ||||
7
|
Jason Witten DAL
|
4.3
|
1.78
| ||||
8
|
Rob Gronkowski NE
|
10.3
|
5.05
| ||||
9
|
Greg Olsen CAR
|
11.3
|
5.65
| ||||
10
|
Clay Harbor JAC
|
4.6
|
2.40
| ||||
11
|
Delanie Walker TEN
|
11.5
|
6.81
| ||||
12
|
Marcedes Lewis JAC
|
8.3
|
4.80
| ||||
13
|
Julius Thomas DEN
|
16.9
|
9.31
| ||||
14
|
Zach Ertz PHI
|
6
|
4.59
| ||||
15
|
Jordan Cameron CLE
|
3.4
|
0.98
| ||||
16
|
Owen Daniels BAL
|
6.1
|
4.80
| ||||
17
|
Niles Paul WAS
|
7.2
|
4.92
| ||||
18
|
Daniel Fells NYG
|
4.4
|
2.84
| ||||
19
|
Heath Miller PIT
|
5.7
|
4.61
| ||||
20
|
Jimmy Graham NO
|
11.3
|
8.31
| ||||
21
|
Coby Fleener IND
|
5.2
|
3.84
| ||||
22
|
Antonio Gates SD
|
11.5
|
10.00
| ||||
23
|
Anthony Fasano KC
|
3.7
|
2.56
| ||||
24
|
Jacob Tamme DEN
|
4.1
|
2.74
| ||||
25
|
Dennis Pitta BAL
|
4.2
|
3.01
| ||||
26
|
Larry Donnell NYG
|
9.1
|
7.65
| ||||
27
|
Vernon Davis SF
|
7
|
6.74
| ||||
28
|
Lance Kendricks STL
|
3.7
|
3.04
| ||||
29
|
Timothy Wright NE
|
3.6
|
6.01
| ||||
DST:
| |||||||
Rank
|
Player
|
Avg
|
Std Dev
| ||||
1
|
Dolphins MIA
|
13.5
|
2.83
| ||||
2
|
Lions DET
|
16.2
|
5.23
| ||||
3
|
Broncos DEN
|
11.5
|
2.18
| ||||
4
|
Buccaneers TB
|
11.6
|
3.44
| ||||
5
|
Bills BUF
|
16.6
|
7.26
| ||||
6
|
Jets NYJ
|
11.2
|
2.40
| ||||
7
|
Bengals CIN
|
12.5
|
6.18
| ||||
8
|
Texans HOU
|
14.4
|
7.31
| ||||
9
|
Eagles PHI
|
17.6
|
9.50
| ||||
10
|
Chargers SD
|
18.8
|
10.42
| ||||
11
|
Chiefs KC
|
11.6
|
6.74
| ||||
12
|
Rams STL
|
6
|
1.63
| ||||
13
|
Cowboys DAL
|
9.8
|
5.00
| ||||
14
|
Giants NYG
|
11.2
|
6.01
| ||||
15
|
Bears CHI
|
12
|
7.80
| ||||
16
|
Panthers CAR
|
13
|
8.50
| ||||
17
|
Raiders OAK
|
7
|
2.49
| ||||
18
|
Browns CLE
|
9
|
4.36
| ||||
19
|
Steelers PIT
|
11.8
|
8.21
| ||||
20
|
Colts IND
|
13.8
|
9.85
| ||||
21
|
Packers GB
|
13.8
|
10.13
| ||||
22
|
Patriots NE
|
16
|
11.51
| ||||
23
|
Cardinals ARI
|
10.5
|
6.69
| ||||
24
|
49ers SF
|
11.6
|
7.42
| ||||
25
|
Jaguars JAC
|
8.8
|
5.15
| ||||
26
|
Saints NO
|
6.2
|
4.58
| ||||
27
|
Seahawks SEA
|
8.5
|
5.17
| ||||
28
|
Ravens BAL
|
10.2
|
7.11
| ||||
29
|
Vikings MIN
|
10.4
|
9.83
| ||||
30
|
Redskins WAS
|
11.4
|
12.96
| ||||
31
|
Titans TEN
|
9
|
8.81
| ||||
32
|
Falcons ATL
|
9.6
|
13.93
|
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