Hello and Welcome to Market Fantasy!
Below are the Market Fantasy consistency rankings. When I first
started doing this last year, I rushed to get them out on Tuesday night to
combine them with a free agent pickup column. I’ve decided to stop rushing out
the free agent column. Partly because there are a billion sites all telling you
to pick up the same guys, so you don’t need me to also tell you to pick up an
injured RBs backup. Hopefully, you’ve figured that out on your own. I’m not
trying for content just for content’s sake. Also, if there are any free agent
picks you find in here, you don’t have to waste a waiver claim on them Tuesday
night when the majority of claims are processed. These guys you can pick up
Wednesday as free agents and save those high claims for the in demand players
everyone else is telling you about that you can probably figure out on your
own. I’ll just make some quick observations about each position. Good?
Before we get started, let me give you the quick explanation of
these rankings. They are based on a combination of a player’s average weekly
scoring and the standard deviation of those scores. The idea is to find the
players who not only average the highest points on a per week basis, but also
deviate the least from that average. These are not meant to be rest of season
or even weekly ranks, just an idea of how a player has performed thus far in
the season. Mark Ingram tops Demarco Murray in these rankings, but don’t trade
Murray for Ingram, ok?
Like my post earlier on
ceilings and floors, these ranks are meant to give you an idea of what to
expect from a player. If a player has a high average score and a high standard
deviation, they are not very consistent and their point average has been
influenced by a huge game and the rest pedestrian games. The average score and standard
deviations have been provided for each player, so use them to make your own
decisions about your team and identify players to either unload or trade for.
New for this week, I’ve added the expected floors and ceilings.
Remember from my Six Sigma drafting
piece, following the standard distribution, a player will achieve over one
standard deviation below their average 84% of the time, and will fall under one
standard deviation above their average 84% of the time. These will change some
on a weekly basis as the average and standard deviations move week to week, but
as of now, the numbers below are what we can expect from a certain player.
As always, love to hear comments. Thanks for reading!
Inane Comments:
QB:
We have only a couple games of data to go on (don’t call it a
sample, it’s a population), but it looks like Carson Palmer and Kyle Orton are
good bye week replacements. Palmer is probably even good for a QB by committee
approach if you’re into that sort of thing….. Same can be said for Mike Glennon.
Look at Vincent Jackson’s numbers with Glennon at the helm. Not really a world
beater, but he’s at least a solid WR2 now….. I’m reading a lot of talk about
being leery of Cam Newton with Kelvin Benjamin possibly out this week. That’s
silly. If Cam is back to running, he’s a top five QB, no matter who lines up at
WR. He still has Greg Olsen and Benjamin drops everything anyway….. It’s time
to admit I was wrong on Matthew Stafford. I thought he’d be good on volume
alone, but man, is he bad. Sure he’s had a lot of injuries to deal with (not
just Calvin Johnson, but losing Bush and Bell hurts him a lot too), but we
still have to deal with that. I would start Palmer or Orton over him this
week….. Everyone back off the Eli Manning train now? Good.
RB:
Benny Cunningham would be my priority RB flier this week. That
average says flex and Zax Stacy is hurt and/or bad….. Don’t laugh, but with the
way the RB landscape is playing out, Darren McFadden is probably a must own for
depth. He’s averaging flex level value, coach wants him to be the guy, and in
12 team or larger, he needs to be owned….. Is Ahmad Bradshaw a top 12 RB? Hard
to argue against it…. Matt Forte gets dragged down in consistency for the two
game stretch where he played the Jets and San Fran, but he’s been a beast ever
since. He leads the ENTIRE NFL in receptions. Once Murray slows down/gets hurt,
he’s the number one back in fantasy….. Buy, buy, buy Jerrick McKinnon after a
bad game this week. The schedule gets much easier after back to back games
against two of the top run defenses in Detroit and Buffalo….. It’s time to
admit that I’m going to miss out on Antone Smith everywhere. Guy has 25 touches
all year and is 13th in RB scoring YTD. I keep telling myself the
week I get him is the week he takes his three touches and does nothing. He
keeps doing something though. Crazy year…..I took LeSean McCoy’s big game last
week as an opportunity to sell for Dez Bryant. Maybe I get that one wrong, but
at least I was able to get value.
WR:
Last week, I recommended Louis Murphy as a flier and he gave us 13
points even with Mike Evans back. Oddly enough, Vincent Jackson was the loser
in Evans returning…… DeAndre Hopkins’ numbers are trending the wrong way, but
I’d probably still buy low. That team is a lot like the Bears in that there are
only really three guys worth giving the ball to and that should be enough to
keep him valuable. Look out for the occasional killer game though….. And
everyone suddenly back on the Andre Johnson bandwagon after burying him all
season just shut up. There’s so much bad fantasy analysis out there….. Everyone
is on the Odell Beckham train, but I’d stay away from that offense until Rashad
Jennings comes back. Eli is bad and Andre Williams isn’t the stud everyone
anointed him to be. He’s being sat for Peyton Hillis on passing downs for
crying out loud….. Speaking of bad analysis, looks like I was wrong on both
Brian Quick and Golden Tate last week. Thanks for the duds guys. I still like
both, but maybe Tate needs Johnson back bad. Maybe he can’t be the guy….. I
just dropped Cordarrelle Patterson in a league to make room for a 2 for 1
trade. It hurt to do it, and maybe it burns me, but with only a 4 man bench, I
couldn’t justify him anymore….. I’m stubbornly sticking with Keenan Allen for
now. He’s supposedly healthy now and is tied to the early MVP at QB.
TE:
Greg Olsen is averaging the second most points at TE. Just
putting that out there…. Dwayne Allen had a dud after I recommended him, but he
should still be owned in all 12 teamers and probably 10 teamers as well. I
can’t find 12 TEs better than him….. Jason Witten looks to be finally trending
in the right direction. Good for him….. Jared Cook is a guy I always fell for
until this year. He looks to be in the top 12 at the moment though. Austin
Davis looks like a player. Maybe all Cook needed was a decent QB.
QB and RB are here, but since the whole thing was too big, WR, TE and DST are here.
RB:
QB and RB are here, but since the whole thing was too big, WR, TE and DST are here.
Rank
|
Player
|
Avg
|
Std Dev
|
Floor
|
Ceiling
|
||||||
1
|
Carson Palmer ARI
|
25
|
3.05
|
21.95
|
28.05
|
||||||
2
|
Jay Cutler CHI
|
25.4
|
4.30
|
21.10
|
29.70
|
||||||
3
|
Drew Brees NO
|
23
|
2.66
|
20.34
|
25.66
|
||||||
4
|
Peyton Manning DEN
|
31
|
6.59
|
24.41
|
37.59
|
||||||
5
|
Kyle Orton BUF
|
20.6
|
1.35
|
19.25
|
21.95
|
||||||
6
|
Andrew Luck IND
|
33.6
|
6.86
|
26.74
|
40.46
|
||||||
7
|
Philip Rivers SD
|
27.9
|
7.39
|
20.51
|
35.29
|
||||||
8
|
Andy Dalton CIN
|
20.2
|
4.82
|
15.38
|
25.02
|
||||||
9
|
Mike Glennon TB
|
20.8
|
5.19
|
15.61
|
25.99
|
||||||
10
|
Ryan Tannehill MIA
|
18.8
|
4.06
|
14.74
|
22.86
|
||||||
11
|
EJ Manuel BUF
|
17.2
|
1.53
|
15.67
|
18.73
|
||||||
12
|
Tony Romo DAL
|
20.1
|
6.74
|
13.36
|
26.84
|
||||||
13
|
Colin Kaepernick SF
|
22.6
|
7.88
|
14.72
|
30.48
|
||||||
14
|
Russell Wilson SEA
|
24.4
|
9.96
|
14.44
|
34.36
|
||||||
15
|
Aaron Rodgers GB
|
26.3
|
11.23
|
15.07
|
37.53
|
||||||
16
|
Brian Hoyer CLE
|
17.9
|
5.09
|
12.81
|
22.99
|
||||||
17
|
Kirk Cousins WAS
|
23
|
9.85
|
13.15
|
32.85
|
||||||
18
|
Matt Ryan ATL
|
24.1
|
10.18
|
13.92
|
34.28
|
||||||
19
|
Charlie Whitehurst TEN
|
14.8
|
4.25
|
10.55
|
19.05
|
||||||
20
|
Cam Newton CAR
|
22.1
|
9.82
|
12.28
|
31.92
|
||||||
21
|
Nick Foles PHI
|
19.9
|
9.20
|
10.70
|
29.10
|
||||||
22
|
Ryan Fitzpatrick HOU
|
14.2
|
5.07
|
9.13
|
19.27
|
||||||
23
|
Jake Locker TEN
|
15.8
|
5.96
|
9.84
|
21.76
|
||||||
24
|
Alex Smith KC
|
18.2
|
7.32
|
10.88
|
25.52
|
||||||
25
|
Joe Flacco BAL
|
23.5
|
12.77
|
10.73
|
36.27
|
||||||
26
|
Blake Bortles JAC
|
15.9
|
7.17
|
8.73
|
23.07
|
||||||
27
|
Ben Roethlisberger PIT
|
18.3
|
7.89
|
10.41
|
26.19
|
||||||
28
|
Matthew Stafford DET
|
19.4
|
10.99
|
8.41
|
30.39
|
||||||
29
|
Geno Smith NYJ
|
13.8
|
7.17
|
6.63
|
20.97
|
||||||
30
|
Derek Carr OAK
|
17.1
|
9.58
|
7.52
|
26.68
|
||||||
31
|
Eli Manning NYG
|
19.8
|
11.94
|
7.86
|
31.74
|
||||||
32
|
Austin Davis STL
|
18.7
|
11.66
|
7.04
|
30.36
|
||||||
33
|
Tom Brady NE
|
18.8
|
11.67
|
7.13
|
30.47
|
||||||
34
|
Teddy Bridgewater MIN
|
12.6
|
10.09
|
2.51
|
22.69
|
||||||
RB:
Rank
|
Player
|
Avg
|
Std Dev
|
Floor
|
Ceiling
|
||||||
1
|
Mark Ingram NO
|
17.2
|
0.85
|
16.35
|
18.05
|
||||||
2
|
DeAngelo Williams CAR
|
5.3
|
1.90
|
3.40
|
7.20
|
||||||
3
|
Toby Gerhart JAC
|
4.9
|
2.30
|
2.60
|
7.20
|
||||||
4
|
Roy Helu WAS
|
7.1
|
2.50
|
4.60
|
9.60
|
||||||
5
|
Storm Johnson JAC
|
5.4
|
2.70
|
2.70
|
8.10
|
||||||
6
|
Shonn Greene TEN
|
5
|
2.89
|
2.11
|
7.89
|
||||||
7
|
Jonathan Dwyer ARI
|
5.9
|
3.15
|
2.75
|
9.05
|
||||||
8
|
Ryan Mathews SD
|
8.8
|
3.15
|
5.65
|
11.95
|
||||||
9
|
Darren McFadden OAK
|
7.4
|
3.45
|
3.95
|
10.85
|
||||||
10
|
Zac Stacy STL
|
7.5
|
3.45
|
4.05
|
10.95
|
||||||
11
|
Jonathan Stewart CAR
|
6.9
|
3.60
|
3.30
|
10.50
|
||||||
12
|
Doug Martin TB
|
6.4
|
3.66
|
2.74
|
10.06
|
||||||
13
|
DeMarco Murray DAL
|
23.7
|
3.74
|
19.96
|
27.44
|
||||||
14
|
Trent Richardson IND
|
8.6
|
3.75
|
4.85
|
12.35
|
||||||
15
|
Bishop Sankey TEN
|
5.2
|
3.78
|
1.42
|
8.98
|
||||||
16
|
Steven Jackson ATL
|
7.3
|
3.80
|
3.50
|
11.10
|
||||||
17
|
Justin Forsett BAL
|
12.3
|
3.88
|
8.42
|
16.18
|
||||||
18
|
Fred Jackson BUF
|
10.2
|
3.92
|
6.28
|
14.12
|
||||||
19
|
Benny Cunningham STL
|
6.6
|
4.10
|
2.50
|
10.70
|
||||||
20
|
Lamar Miller MIA
|
12.7
|
4.10
|
8.60
|
16.80
|
||||||
21
|
Antone Smith ATL
|
10.4
|
4.15
|
6.25
|
14.55
|
||||||
22
|
Shane Vereen NE
|
6.5
|
4.28
|
2.22
|
10.78
|
||||||
23
|
Bernard Pierce BAL
|
5.5
|
4.38
|
1.12
|
9.88
|
||||||
24
|
Jeremy Hill CIN
|
8.8
|
4.45
|
4.35
|
13.25
|
||||||
25
|
Reggie Bush DET
|
7.3
|
4.50
|
2.80
|
11.80
|
||||||
26
|
Terrance West CLE
|
10.3
|
4.51
|
5.79
|
14.81
|
||||||
27
|
Joique Bell DET
|
8.4
|
4.70
|
3.70
|
13.10
|
||||||
28
|
Isaiah Crowell CLE
|
9.2
|
4.76
|
4.44
|
13.96
|
||||||
29
|
Khiry Robinson NO
|
8.6
|
4.76
|
3.84
|
13.36
|
||||||
30
|
Ahmad Bradshaw IND
|
12.3
|
4.83
|
7.47
|
17.13
|
||||||
31
|
C.J. Spiller BUF
|
7.3
|
4.86
|
2.44
|
12.16
|
||||||
32
|
Montee Ball DEN
|
6.9
|
5.12
|
1.78
|
12.02
|
||||||
33
|
Lorenzo Taliaferro BAL
|
5.6
|
5.33
|
0.27
|
10.93
|
||||||
34
|
Andre Williams NYG
|
6.2
|
5.36
|
0.84
|
11.56
|
||||||
35
|
Chris Ivory NYJ
|
9.3
|
5.42
|
3.88
|
14.72
|
||||||
36
|
Ronnie Hillman DEN
|
7.3
|
5.63
|
1.67
|
12.93
|
||||||
37
|
Chris Johnson NYJ
|
5.7
|
5.73
|
-0.03
|
11.43
|
||||||
38
|
Alfred Morris WAS
|
10.1
|
5.94
|
4.16
|
16.04
|
||||||
39
|
Bobby Rainey TB
|
8.2
|
6.02
|
2.18
|
14.22
|
||||||
40
|
Jerick McKinnon MIN
|
5.5
|
6.30
|
-0.80
|
11.80
|
||||||
41
|
LeSean McCoy PHI
|
9.4
|
6.46
|
2.94
|
15.86
|
||||||
42
|
Ben Tate CLE
|
13.1
|
6.61
|
6.49
|
19.71
|
||||||
43
|
Le'Veon Bell PIT
|
15.2
|
6.67
|
8.53
|
21.87
|
||||||
44
|
Giovani Bernard CIN
|
16.6
|
6.72
|
9.88
|
23.32
|
||||||
45
|
LeGarrette Blount PIT
|
6.3
|
6.72
|
-0.42
|
13.02
|
||||||
46
|
Pierre Thomas NO
|
9.7
|
7.51
|
2.19
|
17.21
|
||||||
47
|
Stevan Ridley NE
|
9
|
7.66
|
1.34
|
16.66
|
||||||
48
|
Marshawn Lynch SEA
|
17.7
|
7.82
|
9.88
|
25.52
|
||||||
49
|
Frank Gore SF
|
10.8
|
8.39
|
2.41
|
19.19
|
||||||
50
|
Rashad Jennings NYG
|
13.2
|
8.45
|
4.75
|
21.65
|
||||||
51
|
Matt Forte CHI
|
16.6
|
8.51
|
8.09
|
25.11
|
||||||
52
|
Andre Ellington ARI
|
12.5
|
8.59
|
3.91
|
21.09
|
||||||
53
|
Darren Sproles PHI
|
11.3
|
8.64
|
2.66
|
19.94
|
||||||
54
|
Eddie Lacy GB
|
9.5
|
8.86
|
0.64
|
18.36
|
||||||
55
|
Matt Asiata MIN
|
9.7
|
9.25
|
0.45
|
18.95
|
||||||
56
|
Knile Davis KC
|
11.8
|
9.44
|
2.36
|
21.24
|
||||||
57
|
Knowshon Moreno MIA
|
8.2
|
10.06
|
-1.86
|
18.26
|
||||||
58
|
Arian Foster HOU
|
21.3
|
10.34
|
10.96
|
31.64
|
||||||
59
|
Jamaal Charles KC
|
10.4
|
10.91
|
-0.51
|
21.31
|
||||||
60
|
Branden Oliver SD
|
15.3
|
12.78
|
2.52
|
28.08
|
||||||
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