Thursday, November 7, 2013

Market Fantasy #36 - Week 10 Go for It!/Punt!

Hello and welcome to Market Fantasy!

It’s getting to be crunch time in most fantasy leagues as the playoff races start to heat up. With only four games remaining in most leagues, each win is becoming more and more critical. With that in mind, it’s a good time to look at the rosters of managers who are fighting for a spot and see what you can get from their roster. Jordy Nelson’s owner freaking out over the Rodgers injury? Send him a lowball offer. Gronk or Cameron’s owner needing a win badly? See if you can get a bye week discount on those players. Every owner’s level of panic is different, but this is the time you want to firm up your team as best as you can. This can also be the best time to gamble. Won the Andre Ellington lottery in your league and think he can be a RB2 the rest of the way? Trade a better known RB for a position you are week at. You should be taking every opportunity to improve your team each week, but that especially holds true now. Plan ahead because there are still two more weeks with byes and the playoffs will be here before you know it. Like I said earlier, put yourself in the best position to get a win each week. Don’t get complacent and keep your eyes on the title.

With that being said, week 10 isn’t as brutal with the bye weeks as the last two have been, but there are still a few big name players sitting out this week. Below you will find my take on who I think could surprise with good weeks and who I think it would be best to avoid.

Read through and let me know what you think. Thanks for reading!

QB:
Go For it!

RGIII – After last week’s down performance, and arguably down year, it could be tempting to look elsewhere for your quarterback this week. Don’t. It’s tempting to worry about the Thursday night passing curse, but I still think talent will win out in this one, and quite simply, Minnesota doesn’t have a very good pass defense. The Vikings have given up the fourth most passing yards this year and get very little pressure on the quarterback with only 17 sacks year to date. I think this is going to be a good week for RGIII

Ben Roethlisberger - Big Ben had a huge game last week, mostly the result of trying to dig out of a huge hole most of the game. I like him to have another good game against a very porous Bills defense this week. I expect the Steelers to exploit the Bills pass defense early to gain a lead and would have no problem using Ben, Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders and Heath Miller this week as all should have a good game against the seventh worst passing defense in the league. My only worry would be sacks and interceptions as the Bills have been able to cause both, but I still like Roethlisberger to have a good game.

Punt!

Matt Ryan – After starting out the year near the top of my consistency ranks on a weekly basis, Matty Ice has stumbled the last two weeks, cratering out last week with only 9 fantasy points. This week isn’t the week he reverses course unfortunately as he is facing the second toughest passing defense in Seattle. Surprisingly porous against the run of late, the Seahawks still bring it in pass defense. Ryan has been an interception machine of late and the Seahawks are tied for the league lead with 13 picks on the year. With Roddy White still hobbled, this could get ugly for Ryan.

Colin Kaepernick – Word is that Kaepernick might get an additional weapon in Mario Manningham this week, but I still would look elsewhere if I could for a quarterback. The Panthers are simply nasty on defense having generated 12 picks to date. Kaep had his second best game of the season the week before the bye, but still only has 9 passing TDs on the season and I expect him to come back to Earth this week. The fact that the Panthers are also the toughest team to run against will most likely keep his rushing totals in check as well.

RB:
Go For it!

Le’Veon Bell – The Bills are very generous against the rush, and as I noted in Ben’s note, I expect the Steelers to open up a big lead and then run out the clock. Bell has double digit points the last three games (ok, 9.9 in week 7, but still) and I like him to put up RB2 numbers here.

Donald Brown – Trent Richardson was a surprise on the Indianapolis injury report yesterday, but even still, he’s been outplayed by Brown. Richardson has only 110 more rushing yards than Brown on 75 (!) more carries. That’s terrible. Brown faces a Rams defense that made Shonn Green useful. I expect at least flex numbers from Brown and if Richardson is limited, he’s a RB2 easily.

Chris Johnson – Things are starting to look up for Chris Johnson lately. Double digit points in his last two games, including last week’s 150 yard annihilation of the Rams. This week he gets to feast on the hapless Jaguars. Remember what he did in the second half last year? It’s starting to look like a repeat for Johnson this year with the schedule lightening significantly.

Punt!

Ryan Mathews – Already having been outscored by Danny Woodhead this year, I expect that to continue this week against Denver. Mathews gave us a glimmer of hope with two strong games before his bye, but had a complete dud last week. I expect the Denver Mannings to run up the score leading to a lot of passing for San Diego, and thus more Woodhead and simply not much Mathews.

Ben Tate – Give credit to Tate for filling in nicely after Arian Foster went down in the first series last week, putting in a gritty effort on four broken ribs. Even if Foster is out again, Tate will be greeted by the tenacious Cardinals run defense that is allowing only 88 rushing yards per game so far. Combine that with the fact that Tate is still dinged up and that leaves for a flex play at best.

DeAngelo Williams – After starting off hot and actually leading the league in rushing for a bit, Williams has cooled off with only two double digit efforts in his last five games. This week, he has to face a tough Niners defense. The only Carolina running back I would feel comfortable with this week is Tolbert and there, you’re really hoping for a touchdown.

WR:
Go For it!

Emmanuel Sanders – Basically what I said about Ben applies here. Antonio Brown was benched late last week for his conduct, and while that’s over now, it’s hard to ignore Sanders’ increased targets as of late. I like him to have a very solid WR2 week this week against a generous Bills pass defense.

Jordy Nelson – I just wanted to put Jordy in here for those who might be worrying about the loss of Aaron Rodgers. After the Rodgers injury, Nelson continued to receive the most targets from Seneca Wallace and led the team in receptions. A very nice matchup with the Eagles looms. The number two receiver in fantasy should remain as a solid WR1 play this week.

Denarius Moore – Denarius Moore should have a good matchup against the Giants this week and he gets Terelle Pryor back more than likely. Moore has been a pretty consistent contributor this year and is clearly Pryor’s favorite target. I like him to have a good week against the Giants.

Punt!

Stevie Johnson – I might be willing to take Johnson off the list if Manuel was going to be quarterbacking the Bills, but as it stands, we don’t know. Johnson had a dud last week with Tuel throwing to him, and things aren’t looking good against a Steelers team that has allowed the third fewest passing yards year to date. Maybe Johnson can put up some garbage time stats, but if his QB is Tuel again, he could just put up garbage.

Larry Fitzgerald – This one simply comes down to the tough matchup with Houston. In his favor, Fitz was not listed on the Cardinals’ injury report for the first time all year, so maybe the bye did him a world of good. If you have him, you most likely are playing him, but he’s probably going to need a touchdown to be really useful against a Texans team that is the hardest to pass on. Also working against Fitz is the fact that Houston is more generous against the run, so we could see more of Andre Ellington or (please no) Rashard Mendenhall.

Cecil Shorts – Shorts enters this week averaging 8.2 points per game, making him a decent WR2 in most leagues. Unfortunately, he faces a pretty tough Titans defense this week that is giving up the fifth fewest passing yards allowed so far. The thought is that with Blackmon out, Shorts will benefit. The reality is that Shorts really only had one great game in the first four weeks with Blackmon suspended. There are plenty better options this week for a WR2.

TE:
Go For it!

Coby Fleener – Fleener has been up and down a lot this year and mostly hard to trust, but since Reggie Wayne was lost for the season, he’s really seen an uptick in production. Fleener has posted at least 8 points in those games and has a nice matchup this week against the Rams. I expect the trend to continue this week and he’s a great replacement for Gronk or Cameron Owners.

Garrett Graham – While Arizona is tough on opposing offenses, they’re actually pretty generous to tight ends. Arizona is actually the best matchup for tight ends. Looking back on Graham’s last couple weeks, it’s hard to trust him, but this is a game he could shine in.

Punt!

Brent Celek – Celek had a nice week last week with Foles going all world, but don’t expect that trend to continue. This week, he gets a Green Bay defense that held Martellus Bennett to only 36 yards. Celek was unusable the three weeks prior to last week, and I expect him to revert to that again this week.


Jared Cook – Last week was a fluke, don’t buy into it. Simple as that.

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