Hello and Welcome to Market Fantasy!
It’s getting down to crunch time in fantasy with just three weeks left until the playoffs start in most leagues, and in a lot of leagues, the trade deadline is Friday. Many people are hard at work trying to make those last minute deals to strengthen their teams for a playoff run, or in the case of the unfortunate in keeper leagues, selling off their studs for keepers to build for next year. As each game gains ever more importance, the simple task of setting your starting lineup can become an arduous ordeal destined to keep you up at night.
There’s the old adage in fantasy sports that says, “Always start your studs.” The logic behind this idea is simple. Your best players should give you the best chance to win week in and week out. The question now becomes, “Who are my studs?” It’s a question that deserves a hard look. Take the case of Alshon Jeffery. Did you know he is the third highest scoring receiver since his breakout week 4? The two guys ahead of him are Calvin Johnson and AJ Green. That’s it. And Green still hasn’t had his bye yet. On a per game average in that timeframe, Alshon checks in at #2 behind only the mighty Megatron. So is he considered one of your studs? Doesn’t he HAVE to be? He’s produced with Cutler, with McCown, at home, on the road. Everywhere. If you’re looking at a roster of TY Hilton, Alshon, and Eric Decker and can only start two, who sits? In September there’s no way you sit Decker out of that group, but now? Looking at recent performance, don’t you almost have to? Take a look at running back. If you have to choose between Ray Rice and Andre Ellington this week, don’t you have to go Ellington every time?
The point is, every team has at least nine games under their belt at this point. That’s enough to see who is going to turn it around and who just isn’t. It’s time to reevaluate who your studs and go with them. Now this isn’t to say that you should sit AJ Green because Riley Cooper has averaged more points the last two weeks. Some of your studs are still studs, and that’s how it’s supposed to work. This is saying that you have to throw out the name on the back of the jersey and draft position and take a look at the numbers. When I’m setting my lineup, I first look at the last four weeks of points, then the matchup. I play the best looking players based on those criteria. There are players who never leave my lineup, but they have produced all year. At this point in the season, you simply can’t afford to see if this is the game that CJ Spiller gets it back. If you’re fighting for a playoff spot, he’s probably the reason why you’re not doing better. Move on.
With that being said, let’s take a look at who to Go For It with and who to Punt this week.
QB:
Go For It:
Russell Wilson - Russell Wilson has been shooting up my consistency ranks lately and has been playing as good as any non-Manning/Brees QB in football. This week he gets to feast on the generous Minnesota Vikings defense that has allowed the fourth most passing yards to date. Combine the resurgent Golden Tate with the possible return of Percy Harvin and you should get a big game from Wilson.
RGIII - Robert Griffin III has been a very inconsistent player to date, but this week he gets to face off against an Eagles defense that has been gashed on the ground and through the air. I have a feeling this is going to be a very high scoring game with two very good offenses putting up loads of points against two very bad defenses. I would start RGIII with confidence coming off a great game last week fantasy wise.
Punt:
Tom Brady – I know, I know, Brady is coming off a huge game, he gets Vereen back, and it’s hard to bet against the Patriots when they’ve had two weeks to prepare for a game. I get it. What I also get is that this Carolina Panthers defense might very well be the best in football. Colin Kaepernick was on a nice roll himself before he ran into the Panthers and came away with 3.2 fantasy points. The Patriots haven’t looked right except for the Steelers game, and the Steelers are far from the Steel Curtain of the past. I would look elsewhere if I could.
Andrew Luck - Luck has really been in a groove as of late, and is really clicking with TY Hilton, but I don’t like the setup all that much against the Titans tonight. The Titans have allowed the seventh fewest passing yards in the league and their weakness is that you can run against them. I have a feeling this is a game where the Colts try to play a ball control run game, leading to Luck to have a downer of a game, especially if the Colts can force a few Fitzpatrick turnovers and jump out to a big lead.
RB:
Go For It:
Andre Ellington – Pay no attention to Cardinals coach Bruce Arians when he talks about the running back workload. Earlier, he told us Ellington was a guy who could be a feature back, and last week, he told us that 13 touches was plenty. The fact is that Ellington is a dynamic playmaker who gets to face a terrible run defense. I expect both backs to actually be usable in this game, but Ellington will be more involved in the passing game and has the best chance to break a big one. Even if he doesn’t do that, he should be able to rip off yards in chunks and be a very solid RB2.
Le’Veon Bell – Bell doesn’t have a great matchup against Detroit this week, but he will get plenty of carries and has been remarkably consistent since taking over the Steeler’s starting RB gig. Detroit is a fairly good run defense and held Matt Forte in check last week, but I think Bell should have a good shot to find the end zone again with a decent amount of yards. I’m guessing about 13 fantasy points for Bell making him a very solid RB2
Donald Brown – So anyone that reads this blog knows that I’ve been basically driving the Donald Brown bandwagon the last few weeks. Neither him or Trent Richardson had great games last week, but Brown did manage double digit fantasy points thanks to 64 receiving yards and a score. Like I said in the Luck note, the Titans can be run on and I expect the Colts to exploit that. Brown has been demonstrably better that Richardson, and I expect him to have a good game tonight in the flex/low end RB2 area.
Punt:
Shane Vereen – I understand the hype surrounding Vereen this week. He’s coming back and all everyone can remember of him is his week 1 monster game. I think Vereen will be good, but just not this week. A lot has changed from week 1 and the Panthers are just a terrible matchup. I see no reason why Stevan Ridley would all of a sudden lose touches after five great games in a row. Honestly, if your league trade deadline is next week, wait out Monday night and make a lowball offer for Vereen Tuesday morning.
CJ Spiller – I know I don’t have to tell Spiller owners this, but this is a lost season for him, and with news out of Buffalo that both him and Fred Jackson are viewed as the number one guy, I would move on. That is even more true this week as Spiller gets to face the league’s toughest run defense in the Jets. Spiller has the ability to score from anywhere when healthy, but he is clearly not getting it done this year.
MJD – I understand that MJD has been useful in three of his last four games, but I don’t expect that to continue this week. The Cardinals are very good defensively, especially against the run where they have given up the third fewest yards to date. To have any value this week, MJD is going to have to score, and that’s just not something I would take a gamble on this late in the season with so much on the line.
WR:
Go For It:
Riley Cooper – If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Cooper has been on fire with Nick Foles at the helm of the Eagles’ offense, and I don’t see any reason why that should be different this week. He has a great matchup with the terrible Redskins defense, and this has the makings of a high scoring game with plenty of big plays. Start him with confidence this week.
Golden Tate – A lot of what I said for Cooper goes for Golden Tate this week. He’s had two huge games surrounding one stinker the last three weeks, but I think this week continues the goodness against a bad Vikings defense. There’s no guarantee that Harvin plays this week, and even if he does, that really should only help Tate as there will be one more target for the defense to worry about. Remember Tate had a nice second half last year, and it’s looking like he’s poised for another one in a contract year and tied to a hot QB. I think he makes a good WR2 play this week and definitely flex worthy.
Pierre Garcon – A lot of what I mentioned for Riley Cooper applies to Pierre Garcon, except you get the extra bonus of Garcon’s huge target numbers. On the year, he is third in targets among wide receivers. He should again see plenty of chances against a very generous secondary and make for a very strong play this week
Punt:
Denarius Moore – Moore has cooled off considerably after a hot start, not posting double digit points since week 6. A lot of this has to do with the inconsistent QB play, but inconsistency has always been a problem for Moore. This week, he faces the Houston Texans who have allowed the fewest passing yards this year. Now, Terrelle Pryor’s status for Sunday is up in the air, which would leave Matt McGloin as the Raider’s QB. Even if Pryor can play, it’s no guarantee he can be effective with his balky knee. This is a situation I would avoid.
Eric Decker – Eric Decker has really been a disappointment this year in what has been a video game Denver offense, and this week he gets to face off against the very tough Chiefs defense. Decker seems to be only the third option in this offense and since Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas all have tripled Decker’s TD total on the year, it’s not like he’s even scoring. I would only play Decker as a flex if I had to this week.
Marques Colston – Last week’s performance against Dallas was a very encouraging sign for Colston. While he looked healthy, we have to take stock of the opponent as well. Dallas is simply terrible against the pass, and if there was ever a game for Colston to get right, it was that one. Unfortunately, this week he runs up against a very good 49ers defense. I would buy on Colston and certainly pick him up where I could, but it’s going to be hard to trust him this week.
TE:
Go For It:
Tim Wright – I like Wright to have a decent game this week against a very weak Atlanta defense. Mike Glennon looks Wright’s way a lot and he has at least 9 points in three of five games since Glennon took over. Wright is a bit of a gamble, but it’s one I would feel ok with taking.
Rob Gronkowski – I know Gronk is an obvious name here, but I just wanted to put him out there to make sure you don’t over think things. The Patriots are going to rely on him heavily in this game I think, especially in the red zone. Don’t be scared by the matchup.
Punt:
Charles Clay – Clay came seemingly out of nowhere to start the year with big games in three of his first five. Since Miami’s week 6 bye, however, he’s only average around 4 points per game. I don’t think this is the week things turn around for him either against the Chargers. Clay simply isn’t getting enough targets lately, and that is going to hurt his production going forward.
Heath Miller – Heath Miller hasn’t really been all that good this year. His high score came in week 6 with 8.4 points. He has only one touchdown on the year, and just isn’t being used all that much. He has an 11 yard per catch average, but is only averaging 4 catches per game. I just don’t see that turning around this week against a Detroit team that recently held Martellus Bennett to 29 yards.
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