Hello and Welcome to Market Fantasy!
Last week, after I posted my weekly Go For It/Punt column, I went to Twitter like I always do to promote it and along with the link implored readers to activate Donald Brown that night. Against the Titans on Thursday night football, Brown went on to post over 21 fantasy points, rushing for two touchdowns and totaling over 90 yards. In the intro to the recommendations, I talked about always starting your studs, saying Alshon Jeffery had graduated to the ranks of the stud WR and how he should never really see your bench.
I say this not to brag. Not at all, actually. I say this because despite my imploring readers to start those two players, I had them both benched in a league where I needed a win badly. In fairness, I started Andre Ellington and Riley Cooper respectively who I also recommended. I went with Ellington because I thought the matchup was slightly better and Cooper because I was scared of the storm that went through Chicago would limit the Bears’ passing game, and in turn Jeffery’s numbers. Needless to say I lost since I got about five points total from Ellington and Cooper.
The reason I’m telling you about this is to say trust your gut. For many of us, there are only two games left to decide whether we will be playing for a championship, or sorta kinda paying attention to your consolation bracket games while looking toward next year (or BASEBALL!). Last week, I came this close to starting Brown, but ultimately succumbed to the buzz around Ellington. And lost. This is your team you’ve constructed, either via draft or trades and free agency. You liked those players for one reason or another. There are a million different points of view out there if you look and it’s incredibly easy to get overwhelmed. When your lineup is set, make sure you’re happy with it. Buzzy players are nice, but are often the source of a lot of heartbreak. Play the best players you have based on the matchups and recent history of performance. Always make sure you’re comfortable with your lineup, because often times when you start to overthink things is when you lose.
Remember, this isn’t a game like poker where you’re trying to outthink your opponent. It’s incredibly similar to investing. You’re setting a lineup to get you the most possible points. Do your research and pick the players that make the most sense and have proven to give you the best chance to win. Will you get lucky with a Marvin Jones four TD game every now and then? Absolutely! And that’s a great feeling. Long term however Marvin Jones will turn out to be just like a million buzzy tech stocks that crashed and burned. They were good for a nice run, but in the end, the people who bet heavily on them lost big.
With that, here are the players I think you should consider starting and who to avoid. Thanks for reading!
QB:
Go For It!
Mike Glennon: This is hard to believe, but Mike Glennon is actually the ninth most consistent QB since taking over the starting job according to my rankings. Since week 6, he only has one game below 15 fantasy points and this week get to take on a Lions defense that has given up the third most passing yards. And despite their vaunted front seven, only have 16 sacks on the year, or one more than the Jaguars who everyone views as a team to start everyone against. Glennon isn’t flashy, but he uses his best weapon a lot and has been getting capable pass catching from the running back position. You could do a lot worse in a tough week for QB byes.
Scott Tolzien: Tolzien has had an up and down time of it since taking over for Seneca Wallace who took over for Aaron Rodgers. He’s passing for a good number of yards, but his decision making can still be off as evidenced by his 1:5 TD to INT ratio. He does, however, still have a stable of weapons at this disposal and continues to make good use of them. He should play well against a Vikings team that is hurting and a sieve against the pass as it is. I could easily see a line looking like 280 yards with 2 touchdowns and 1 pick.
Punt!
Matt Ryan: Sorry, even if you’re desperate this week, there’s no reason to use Matt Ryan. Brutal matchup and the Falcons are pretty much phoning it in at this point. I think this is going to be an ugly game for the Falcons tonight.
Philip Rivers: The Rivers comeback story has been a great one this year, and it’s been fun to watch him revive his career. That being said, I would be shy about using him this week in a tough matchup with the Chiefs. This is a team that limits the passing game and gets after the quarterback. Rivers has actually cooled off as of late as well, failing to top 16 fantasy points in his last two games. I would temper expectations this week.
RB:
Go For It!
Ben Tate: Ben Tate is the starting running back against the Jags this week. The Jaguars have given up the most rushing yards to date. Rashard Mendenhall was useful against them for crying out loud. As long as Tate doesn’t get hair ripped out being tackled, he should be fine. Plug and play.
Shane Vereen: Vereen didn’t do much in the run game last week in his return to action, but he had a very nice day in the passing game. This week against Denver, he should be able to even beat that performance. The Broncos should be able to run up the score leaving the Pats to throw, throw and throw some more. We’ll probably even see Vereen lined up wide a few times. This is a game where he should easily approach 100 total yards.
Rashad Jennings: Regardless of Darren McFadden’s status this week, Jennings has earned a large role in the offense going forward and his coach said as much earlier this week. Last week, we watched Donald Brown destroy the Titans on Thursday night football and the way Jennings has played the last three weeks with two games over 20 points and a low score of 10.7 in that span, I expect him to put up top 10 RB numbers. The only thing that could hold him back would be a blowup by QB Matt McGloin, who looked very capable last week.
Punt!
Lamar Miller: At this point, it’s really hard to recommend even rostering Miller in 10 team and shallower leagues, let alone starting him. 4.8 points combined the last two weeks and now the league’s best defense in Carolina rolls into town. Ugh. Avoid.
Donald Brown: As the driver of the Donald Brown bandwagon, I’m going to have to pull into the station this week. While it’s certainly possible that Brown gets us double digit points, he’s going to need a score to do so against a very tough Cardinals run defense and that’s no given. I expect Brown to get the bulk of the work, but we are still going to see Trent Richardson force fed some as well. I can see Brown as a low end flex, but I wouldn’t feel great about it.
DeMarco Murray: Murray has been remarkably healthy for the most part this year, and has played very well when on the field. There are two things working against him this week however. The first is that the Giants could run up the score quickly on a Dallas defense that can’t stop anyone leading to a high volume day for Tony Romo and not Murray. The second is that the Giants have been very good defensively lately and have actually given up the sixth fewest yards to opposing RBs this year. You probably can’t afford to sit Murray if you own him, but temper your expectations.
WR:
Go For IT!
Rueben Randle: Randle’s teammate Hakeem Nicks is questionable to play this weekend with a groin injury leaving Randle with an opportunity against a Cowboys defense that can’t stop anyone. The Cowboys have given up the second most passing yards and are in the bottom ten in points allowed. So they’re basically a bonanza to face. If Nicks is forced to sit, Randle is a WR2 this week. Even if Nicks gives it a go, he’ll probably be limited leaving plenty of work for Randle, who has double digit points the last two weeks.
Marques Colston: Last week, I urged caution on Colston coming off his breakout week 10 but facing a tough Niners defense in week 11. Colston responded with 80 yards, and despite not scoring, it was a very strong performance and could be the sign of a strong finish to the season. He’s been heavily targeted lately, Jimmy Graham is hobbling, tonight, he gets to match up with a Falcons team that has all but quit on the year, giving up the fourth most points year to date. I think Colston has a chance to make it three strong games in a row this week.
Anquan Boldin: Outside of Vernon Davis, it’s been really hard to trust anyone associated with the Niners passing attack this year. Boldin has largely disappeared since his huge week 1, but he reappeared last week with a nice game, giving his owners 11.6 fantasy points. This week he gets to face a Redskins team that has been absolutely roasted by opposing passing offenses. Boldin is still a top 30 fantasy receiver on the year and has had a decent amount of targets. In fact, if you compare him to Wes Welker this year, the only real difference is the touchdowns in terms of production (648 yards and 9 TD for Wes, 630 yards and 3 TD for Boldin). I like Boldin to keep it going this week and be a strong WR2.
Punt!
Harry Douglas: Harry Douglas entered our fantasy lives in week 7 after Julio Jones went down and it’s mostly been sunshine and roses since then. I would be leery of that continuing this week however as the Saints come to town. The Saints have actually given up the second fewest passing yards this year and have been very strong defensively, just remember what they did to Dez Bryant a few weeks ago. The Falcons and Matt Ryan are a complete mess right now and I can’t recommend Douglas as any more than a flex tonight.
Denarius Moore: After getting off to a hot start to the year, Moore has cooled off significantly. Week 6 was the last time he recorded double digit fantasy points in game. Most of this is a product of quarterback play, but we still discount that. This week, Moore takes on a Titans defense that largely held the vastly superior Indy passing attack in check last week. Just ask any TY Hilton owner how #1 receivers fare against the Titans. While Matt McGloin looked capable last week, it was against a far inferior defense. Now the book is out on him and I don’t expect a repeat against a much tougher opponent.
Keenan Allen: Although it looks like Keenan Allen will be able to give it a go this week after practicing Wednesday despite a balky knee, it’s still hard to trust him. Allen had to leave the game early last week, and the knee will probably still be an issue. Add in the fact that Allen has totaled 8.6 fantasy points the last two weeks and this week gets to take on the very tough Chiefs defense, and you have the makings of what could be a long day for him I would look elsewhere if I could and only use as a WR3 if necessary.
TE:
Go For It!
Martellus Bennett: Earlier in the week, Martellus Bennett joked about his lack of production lately as having to be happy with the leftovers of Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Matt Forte. While it’s true that his production has slipped of late, I like him to bounce back this week against the Rams. The Rams can really get after the quarterback, and I can see the Bears using a lot of quick throws utilizing Bennett’s size to create mismatches. Bennett is still a dangerous red zone target as well. His value could likely hinge on a score, but I like him to find the end zone this week and post a decent game.
Delanie Walker: Football is often about opportunity and Walker had plenty of it last week, going a perfect 10 catches on 10 targets for 91 yards and a score. Currently third among TEs on my consistency ranks, I’ve beating the Walker drum for a while now and he has responded as of late. Over the last four games, Walker has been in double digit fantasy points 3 times, scoring in all three games. It’s hard to argue that Walker won’t be a large part of what the Titans do on offense with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm based on recent evidence. I like him to continue the hot streak this week.
Punt!
Dallas Clark: Dallas Clark has shown flashes at time this year, but has been about as inconsistent as they come. Despite a couple big games, he’s only averaging 4.9 fantasy points per game and while the matchup with the Jets might seem decent, it’s hard to get too excited about Clark for fantasy purposes. On the year, Clark has only 27 receptions for 311 yards and three TDs. Last week against a Bears team that seemingly gives it up to everyone, he was barely an afterthought. He’s only a desperation play at this point.
Charles Clay: This one hurts a little bit, because I like what Clay has done this year and his TD catch last week was ridiculous. Despite the talent, Clay has been very inconsistent and faces off against arguably the best defense in football. Some matchups can be overcome, and the Panthers have been beaten by TEs this year, but I just don’t see Clay overcoming it this week. The Dolphins have absolutely no running game and I’m guessing this is an ugly day for all of Miami’s offensive players.
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