Hello and Welcome to Market Fantasy!
One of the exercises we see a lot in fantasy sports is
putting players into tiers for comparison’s sake. The purpose of this exercise
is to allow us to compare players of the same position to each other, usually
when drafting or making trades. It can be very helpful when constructing or
evaluating a roster. What level are my players performing or expected to
perform at relative to others at their position?
To do this, I used some familiar data to anyone who reads my
blog– average per game score and standard deviation. For a discussion on
standard deviation and why it’s useful, check out this
column. The tiers are based on the normal distribution, which many
of you know as a bell curve. Unlike a lot of tiers you see, these are based
solely on year to date performance, I’m showing what Ray Rice has done without
factoring in the fact that he was a first round pick. To find out where each
player should fit in what tier, I first calculated the average score for each
position, and the standard deviation for those averages. After that, I
subtracted the players’ average score from the group average and divided that
number by the group standard deviation to find out how many standard deviations
from the mean each player landed. Finally, to make the four tiers for each set,
I used the following criteria:
Tier
1: > 1.5 standard deviations
from the mean
Tier
2: 0 – 1.5 standard deviations
from the mean
Tier
3: 0 - -1.5 standard deviations
from the mean
Tier
4: > -1.5 standard deviations from the mean
The tiers are separated by a line in each list and are meant
to play out like: Elite, very good, average, below average, or something like
that. Great, good, bad, terrible… A,B,C,D….it’s all the
same idea.
The normal distribution is pictured above. The idea is that
in a data set, 68% of the results will fall +/- one standard deviation from the
mean, 95% of the results will fall +/- two standard deviations from the mean,
and 99.4% of the results will fall +/- three standard deviations from the mean.
When you hear the term “grading on a curve,” they are referring to a grading
system that is based on the normal distribution. How this works is by taking a
pre-assigned percentage of scores and assigning a grade to them. By finding the
number of standard deviations away from the mean each student’s grade falls,
you assign them a grade based on where they fall in the above chart. Take a
quick look at the quarterbacks below. Manning and Brees are at least (almost)
two standard deviations above the mean. This would put them in the 2-3+ group,
and they would earn an “A.” A player with a standard deviation between -1 and
+1 would earn a “C.” Make sense?
Like I said earlier, my tiers are based on the normal
distribution, but don’t follow it exactly. I tweaked where players should fall
slightly so there are only four groups. Any player who is out of this group
earns an “F’ and probably isn’t worth your time in most leagues.
So take a look at the ranks, use the numbers to make your
own tiers, and let me know what you think!
Thanks for reading!
|
Player
|
Avg
|
StdDev
|
|
Manning, Peyton DEN
|
37.7
|
3.082468
|
|
Brees, Drew NO
|
31.7
|
1.959049
|
|
Rodgers, Aaron GB
|
27.4
|
1.153932
|
|
Stafford, Matthew
DET
|
26.7
|
1.022866
|
|
Rivers, Philip SD
|
26.2
|
0.929248
|
|
Ryan, Matt ATL
|
25.2
|
0.742011
|
|
Romo, Tony DAL
|
25
|
0.704564
|
|
Newton, Cam CAR
|
23.7
|
0.461157
|
|
Dalton, Andy CIN
|
23.1
|
0.348815
|
|
Luck, Andrew IND
|
22.3
|
0.199025
|
|
Locker, Jake TEN
|
21.9
|
0.124131
|
|
Wilson, Russell SEA
|
20.6
|
-0.11928
|
|
Griffin III, Robert
WAS
|
20
|
-0.23162
|
|
Cutler, Jay CHI
|
19.6
|
-0.30651
|
|
Vick, Michael PHI
|
19.4
|
-0.34396
|
|
Kaepernick, Colin
SF
|
19
|
-0.41886
|
|
Pryor, Terrelle OAK
|
18.8
|
-0.4563
|
|
Smith, Alex KC
|
18.7
|
-0.47503
|
|
Tannehill, Ryan MIA
|
17.6
|
-0.68099
|
|
Glennon, Mike TB
|
17.3
|
-0.73716
|
|
Flacco, Joe BAL
|
17.1
|
-0.7746
|
|
Roethlisberger, Ben
PIT
|
16.9
|
-0.81205
|
|
Schaub, Matt HOU
|
16.4
|
-0.90567
|
|
Manning, Eli NYG
|
15.9
|
-0.99929
|
|
Ponder, Christian
MIN
|
15.2
|
-1.13035
|
|
Smith, Geno NYJ
|
15.2
|
-1.13035
|
|
Brady, Tom NE
|
14.8
|
-1.20525
|
|
Player
|
Avg
|
StdDev
|
|
Charles,
Jamaal KC
|
18.6
|
2.496311
|
|
McCoy, LeSean PHI
|
16.7
|
1.986508
|
|
Forte, Matt CHI
|
16.5
|
1.932845
|
|
Bush, Reggie DET
|
16.2
|
1.852349
|
|
Peterson, Adrian MIN
|
16.2
|
1.852349
|
|
Moreno,
Knowshon DEN
|
16
|
1.798686
|
|
Lynch,
Marshawn SEA
|
15.2
|
1.584032
|
|
Gore, Frank SF
|
14.7
|
1.449873
|
|
Murray,
DeMarco DAL
|
13.7
|
1.181555
|
|
Foster, Arian HOU
|
13.2
|
1.047397
|
|
Jackson, Fred BUF
|
12.6
|
0.886406
|
|
McFadden, Darren OAK
|
12.3
|
0.805911
|
|
Morris, Alfred WAS
|
12
|
0.725416
|
|
Lacy, Eddie GB
|
11.9
|
0.698584
|
|
Bell, Le'Veon PIT
|
11.8
|
0.671752
|
|
Hillis, Peyton NYG
|
11.3
|
0.537593
|
|
Starks, James GB
|
10.9
|
0.430266
|
|
Martin, Doug TB
|
9.9
|
0.161949
|
|
Woodhead,
Danny SD
|
9.8
|
0.135117
|
|
Williams,
DeAngelo CAR
|
9.6
|
0.081454
|
|
Mathews, Ryan SD
|
9.6
|
0.081454
|
|
Ridley, Stevan NE
|
9.6
|
0.081454
|
|
Ellington,
Andre ARI
|
9.5
|
0.054622
|
|
Bell, Joique DET
|
9.4
|
0.02779
|
|
Johnson, Chris TEN
|
9.3
|
0.000958
|
|
Bernard,
Giovani CIN
|
9.3
|
0.000958
|
|
Sproles,
Darren NO
|
8.8
|
-0.1332
|
|
Rodgers,
Jacquizz ATL
|
8.7
|
-0.16003
|
|
Rice, Ray BAL
|
8.3
|
-0.26736
|
|
Thomas, Pierre NO
|
8.2
|
-0.29419
|
|
Tolbert, Mike CAR
|
8
|
-0.34785
|
|
Stacy, Zac STL
|
8
|
-0.34785
|
|
Powell, Bilal NYJ
|
7.9
|
-0.37469
|
|
Jones-Drew,
Maurice JAC
|
7.8
|
-0.40152
|
|
Helu, Roy WAS
|
7.5
|
-0.48201
|
|
Miller, Lamar MIA
|
7.3
|
-0.53568
|
|
Snelling,
Jason ATL
|
7.3
|
-0.53568
|
|
Richardson,
Trent IND
|
7.2
|
-0.56251
|
|
Mendenhall,
Rashard ARI
|
7.2
|
-0.56251
|
|
Jacobs,
Brandon NYG
|
7.1
|
-0.58934
|
|
Jackson,
Steven ATL
|
6.8
|
-0.66984
|
|
Bolden,
Brandon NE
|
6.7
|
-0.69667
|
|
Spiller, C.J. BUF
|
6.7
|
-0.69667
|
|
Green-Ellis,
BenJarvus CIN
|
6.5
|
-0.75033
|
|
Thomas, Daniel MIA
|
5.8
|
-0.93815
|
|
Tate, Ben HOU
|
5.6
|
-0.99182
|
|
Pierce,
Bernard BAL
|
5.4
|
-1.04548
|
|
Hunter,
Kendall SF
|
5.1
|
-1.12598
|
|
McGahee,
Willis CLE
|
4.9
|
-1.17964
|
|
Hillman,
Ronnie DEN
|
4.9
|
-1.17964
|
|
Ogbonnaya,
Chris CLE
|
4.9
|
-1.17964
|
|
Richardson,
Daryl STL
|
4.8
|
-1.20647
|
|
Brown, Donald IND
|
4.7
|
-1.2333
|
|
Randle, Joseph DAL
|
4.6
|
-1.26013
|
|
Robinson,
Khiry NO
|
4.1
|
-1.39429
|
|
Goodson, Mike NYJ
|
4
|
-1.42112
|
|
Player
|
Avg
|
StdDev
|
|
Johnson, Calvin DET
|
20
|
3.449221
|
|
Nelson, Jordy GB
|
16.6
|
2.30639
|
|
Bryant, Dez DAL
|
14.9
|
1.734974
|
|
Green, A.J. CIN
|
14.9
|
1.734974
|
|
Gordon, Josh CLE
|
14.6
|
1.634136
|
|
Blackmon, Justin
JAC
|
13.9
|
1.398848
|
|
Jackson, Vincent TB
|
13.9
|
1.398848
|
|
Thomas, Demaryius
DEN
|
13.7
|
1.331622
|
|
Jackson, DeSean PHI
|
13.5
|
1.264397
|
|
Welker, Wes DEN
|
13.4
|
1.230784
|
|
Marshall, Brandon
CHI
|
13.1
|
1.129946
|
|
Jeffery, Alshon CHI
|
13.1
|
1.129946
|
|
Cruz, Victor NYG
|
12.8
|
1.029108
|
|
Cobb, Randall GB
|
12.7
|
0.995495
|
|
Brown, Antonio PIT
|
11.8
|
0.692981
|
|
Decker, Eric DEN
|
11.4
|
0.558531
|
|
Smith, Torrey BAL
|
11
|
0.42408
|
|
Jones, Marvin CIN
|
10.9
|
0.390467
|
|
Jones, James GB
|
10.6
|
0.289629
|
|
Moore, Denarius OAK
|
10
|
0.087953
|
|
Fitzgerald, Larry
ARI
|
9.8
|
0.020728
|
|
Wayne, Reggie IND
|
9.7
|
-0.01288
|
|
Allen, Keenan SD
|
9.7
|
-0.01288
|
|
Garcon, Pierre WAS
|
9.6
|
-0.0465
|
|
Williams, Terrance
DAL
|
9.3
|
-0.14734
|
|
Boldin, Anquan SF
|
9.3
|
-0.14734
|
|
Johnson, Andre HOU
|
9.2
|
-0.18095
|
|
Burleson, Nate DET
|
9
|
-0.24817
|
|
Royal, Eddie SD
|
9
|
-0.24817
|
|
Johnson, Steve BUF
|
8.8
|
-0.3154
|
|
Washington, Nate
TEN
|
8.8
|
-0.3154
|
|
Holmes, Santonio
NYJ
|
8.8
|
-0.3154
|
|
Hilton, T.Y. IND
|
8.5
|
-0.41624
|
|
Hartline, Brian MIA
|
8.4
|
-0.44985
|
|
Douglas, Harry ATL
|
8.4
|
-0.44985
|
|
Shorts, Cecil JAC
|
8.2
|
-0.51707
|
|
Tate, Golden SEA
|
8.1
|
-0.55069
|
|
Brown, Mike JAC
|
7.9
|
-0.61791
|
|
Edelman, Julian NE
|
7.8
|
-0.65153
|
|
Hopkins, DeAndre
HOU
|
7.8
|
-0.65153
|
|
Randle, Rueben NYG
|
7.8
|
-0.65153
|
|
Sanders, Emmanuel
PIT
|
7.7
|
-0.68514
|
|
Wallace, Mike MIA
|
7.7
|
-0.68514
|
|
Stills, Kenny NO
|
7.7
|
-0.68514
|
|
Thompkins, Kenbrell
NE
|
7.6
|
-0.71875
|
|
Smith, Steve CAR
|
7.4
|
-0.78598
|
|
Nicks, Hakeem NYG
|
7.3
|
-0.81959
|
|
Gibson, Brandon MIA
|
7.2
|
-0.8532
|
|
Brown, Marlon BAL
|
7.1
|
-0.88681
|
|
LaFell, Brandon CAR
|
7.1
|
-0.88681
|
|
Wright, Kendall TEN
|
7
|
-0.92043
|
|
Ginn, Ted CAR
|
7
|
-0.92043
|
|
Floyd, Michael ARI
|
6.9
|
-0.95404
|
|
Simpson, Jerome MIN
|
6.9
|
-0.95404
|
|
Cotchery, Jerricho
PIT
|
6.8
|
-0.98765
|
|
Kerley, Jeremy NYJ
|
6.7
|
-1.02127
|
|
Pettis, Austin STL
|
6.5
|
-1.08849
|
|
Jennings, Greg MIN
|
6.5
|
-1.08849
|
|
Dobson, Aaron NE
|
6.3
|
-1.15572
|
|
Hankerson, Leonard
WAS
|
6.2
|
-1.18933
|
|
Player
|
Avg
|
StdDev
|
|
|
Graham, Jimmy NO
|
17.9
|
3.300033
|
|
|
Davis, Vernon SF
|
14.1
|
2.127706
|
|
|
Thomas, Julius DEN
|
12.4
|
1.603243
|
|
|
Cameron, Jordan CLE
|
12.3
|
1.572392
|
|
|
Gates, Antonio SD
|
9.4
|
0.677721
|
|
|
Reed, Jordan WAS
|
9
|
0.554318
|
|
|
Clay, Charles MIA
|
8.8
|
0.492617
|
|
|
Gronkowski, Rob NE
|
8.6
|
0.430915
|
|
|
Gonzalez, Tony ATL
|
8.6
|
0.430915
|
|
|
Bennett, Martellus
CHI
|
8.5
|
0.400064
|
|
|
Finley, Jermichael GB
|
8
|
0.245811
|
|
|
Witten, Jason DAL
|
7.7
|
0.153258
|
|
|
Olsen, Greg CAR
|
6.9
|
-0.09355
|
|
|
Cook, Jared STL
|
6.3
|
-0.27865
|
|
|
Walker, Delanie TEN
|
6
|
-0.3712
|
|
|
Fleener, Coby IND
|
5.9
|
-0.40205
|
|
|
Chandler, Scott BUF
|
5.8
|
-0.43291
|
|
|
Winslow, Kellen NYJ
|
5.8
|
-0.43291
|
|
|
Rudolph, Kyle MIN
|
5.7
|
-0.46376
|
|
|
Graham, Garrett HOU
|
5.5
|
-0.52546
|
|
|
Clark, Dallas BAL
|
5.5
|
-0.52546
|
|
|
Miller, Heath PIT
|
5.3
|
-0.58716
|
|
|
Miller, Zach SEA
|
5.2
|
-0.61801
|
|
|
Fauria, Joseph DET
|
4.8
|
-0.74141
|
|
|
Cumberland, Jeff
NYJ
|
4.6
|
-0.80311
|
|
|
Eifert, Tyler CIN
|
4.4
|
-0.86482
|
|
|
Kendricks, Lance
STL
|
4.2
|
-0.92652
|
|
|
Celek, Brent PHI
|
4.2
|
-0.92652
|
|
|
Gresham, Jermaine
CIN
|
4.1
|
-0.95737
|
|
|
Myers, Brandon NYG
|
4.1
|
-0.95737
|
|
|
Wright, Timothy TB
|
3.7
|
-1.08077
|
|
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